The job-finding rate of unemployment insurance (UI) recipients declines in the initial months of unemployment and then exhibits a spike at the benefit exhaustion point. A range of theoretical explanations have been proposed, but those are hard to disentangle using data on job finding alone. To better understand the underlying mechanisms, we conducted a large text-message-based survey of unemployed workers in Germany. We surveyed 6,349 UI recipients twice a week for four months about their job search effort. The panel structure allows us to observe how search effort evolves in individuals over the unemployment spell. We provide three key facts: (i) search effort is flat early on in the UI spell, (ii) search effort exhibits an increase up to UI exhaustion and a decrease thereafter, (iii) UI recipients do not appear to time job start dates to coincide with the UI exhaustion point. A standard search model with unobserved heterogeneity struggles to explain the second fact, and a model of storable offers is not consistent with the third fact. The patterns are well captured by a model of reference-dependent job search or by a model with duration dependence in search cost.
The recent ascent of right-wing populist movements in several countries has rekindled interest in understanding the causes of the rise of fascism in the interwar years. In this article, we argue that there was a strong link between the surge of support for the Socialist Party after World War I and the subsequent emergence of fascism in Italy. We first develop a source of variation in socialist support across Italian municipalities in the 1919 election based on war casualties from the area. We show that these casualties are unrelated to a battery of political, economic, and social variables before the war and had a major effect on socialist support (partly because the socialists were the main antiwar political movement). Our main result is that this boost to socialist support (that is “exogenous” to the prior political leaning of the municipality) led to greater local fascist activity as measured by local party branches and fascist political violence, and to significantly larger vote share of the Fascist Party in the 1921 and 1924 elections. We provide evidence that landowner associations and greater presence of local elites played an important role in the rise of fascism. Finally, we find greater likelihood of Jewish deportations in 1943–45 and lower vote share for Christian Democrats after World War II in areas with greater early fascist activity.
We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in the cross section of U.S. states using newly constructed state-level price indices for nontradeable goods back to 1978. Our estimates indicate that the slope of the Phillips curve is small and was small even during the early 1980s. We estimate only a modest decline in the slope of the Phillips curve since the 1980s. We use a multiregion model to infer the slope of the aggregate Phillips curve from our regional estimates. Applying our estimates to recent unemployment dynamics yields essentially no missing disinflation or missing reinflation over the past few business cycles. Our results imply that the sharp drop in core inflation in the early 1980s was mostly due to shifting expectations about long-run monetary policy as opposed to a steep Phillips curve, and the greater stability of inflation between 1990 and 2020 is mostly due to long-run inflation expectations becoming more firmly anchored.
We run a series of experiments involving over 4,000 online participants and over 10,000 school-aged youth. When individuals are asked to subjectively describe their performance on a male-typed task relating to math and science, we find a large gender gap in self-evaluations. This gap arises when self-evaluations are provided to potential employers, and thus measure self-promotion, and when self-evaluations are not driven by incentives to promote. The gender gap in self-evaluations proves to be persistent and arises as early as the sixth grade. No gender gap arises if individuals are asked about their performance on a more female-typed task.
We document a nationwide “assessment gap” that leads local governments to place a disproportionate fiscal burden on racial and ethnic minorities. We show that holding taxing jurisdictions and property tax rates fixed, Black and Hispanic residents face a 10%–13% higher tax burden for the same bundle of public services. We decompose this disparity into between- and within-neighborhood components and find that just over half of it arises between neighborhoods. We then present evidence on mechanisms. Property assessments are less sensitive to neighborhood attributes than market prices are. This generates spatial variation in tax burden within jurisdiction and leads to overtaxation of communities with a high share of minority residents. We also find appeals behavior and appeals outcomes differ by race within neighborhood. Inequality does not arise from (i) racial differences in transaction prices or (ii) differences in features of the housing stock.
We analyze how firms choose the currency of invoicing and the implications of this choice for exchange rate pass-through into export prices and quantities. Using a new data set for Belgian firms, we find currency invoicing to be an active firm-level decision, shaped by the firm’s size, exposure to imported inputs, and the currency choices of its competitors. Our results show that a firm’s currency choice, in turn, has a direct causal effect on the exchange rate pass-through into prices and quantities. Moreover, the differential price response of similar firms that invoice in different currencies is large, persists beyond a one-year horizon, and gradually wanes in the long run. This results in allocative expenditure-switching effects on export quantities, which build up over time, suggesting a role for quantity adjustment frictions in addition to price stickiness. Our findings shed light on the mechanisms that make or break a dominant currency and the consequences it has for the international transmission of shocks.
We study the effects of becoming a supplier to multinational corporations (MNCs) using tax data tracking firm-to-firm transactions in Costa Rica. Event study estimates reveal that domestic firms experience strong and persistent gains in performance after supplying to a first MNC buyer. Four years after, domestic firms employ 26% more workers and have a 4% to 9% higher total factor productivity (TFP). These effects are unlikely to be explained by demand effects or changes in tax compliance. Moreover, suppliers experience a large drop in their sales to all other buyers except the first MNC buyer in the year of the event, followed by a gradual recovery. The dynamics of adjustment in sales to others suggests that firms face short-run capacity constraints that relax over time. Four years later, the sales to others grow by 20%. Most of this growth comes from the acquisition of new buyers, which tend to be “better buyers” (e.g., larger and with more stable supplier relationships). Finally, we collected survey data from domestic firms and MNCs to provide further insights into the wide-ranging benefits of supplying to MNCs. According to our surveys, these benefits range from better managerial practices to a better reputation.
The earnings of individuals depend on the demand for the factor services they supply. International trade may therefore affect earnings inequality because either (i) foreign consumers and firms demand domestic factor services in different proportions than domestic consumers and firms do, an export channel; or (ii) domestic consumers and firms change their demand for domestic factor services in response to the availability of foreign goods, an import channel. Building on this idea, we develop new measures of export and import exposure at the individual level and provide estimates of their incidence across the earnings distribution. The key input fed into our empirical analysis is a unique administrative data set from Ecuador that merges firm-to-firm transaction data, employer-employee matched data, owner-firm matched data, and firm-level customs transaction records. We find that export exposure is pro-middle class, import exposure is pro-rich, and in terms of overall incidence, the import channel is the dominant force. As a result, earnings inequality in Ecuador is higher than it would be in the absence of trade.
This article studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. We compile a new database of 266,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering up to 91 countries. Our main insight is that, as in equity markets, the returns on external sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk. Real ex post returns average more than 6% annually across two centuries, including default episodes, major wars, and global crises. This represents an excess return of 3%–4% above US or UK government bonds, which is comparable to stocks and outperforms corporate bonds. Central to this finding are the high average coupons offered on external sovereign bonds. The observed returns are hard to reconcile with canonical theoretical models and the degree of credit risk in this market, as measured by historical default and recovery rates. Based on our archive of more than 300 sovereign debt restructurings since 1815, we show that full repudiation is rare; the median creditor loss (haircut) is below 50%.
We study the scope for international cooperation in macroprudential policies. Multinational banks contribute to and are affected by fire sales in countries they operate in. National governments setting quantity regulations noncooperatively fail to achieve the globally efficient outcome, underregulating domestic banks and overregulating foreign banks. Surprisingly, noncooperative national governments using revenue-generating Pigouvian taxation can achieve the global optimum. Intuitively, this occurs because governments internalize the business value of foreign banks through the tax revenue collected. Our theory provides a unified framework to think about international bank regulations and yields concrete insights with the potential to improve on the current policy stance.
We use three quasi-natural experiments in Mexico and one in Panama to estimate the effects of having the option to pay with cash on Uber rides. The ability to pay in cash affects the demand for rides, which is reflected in large changes in the total number of trips, fares, miles, and number of users after Uber introduced cash payments, particularly in lower-income city blocks. On the other hand, the effects on prices, estimated times of arrival, and competitor pricing are negligible, consistent with the supply of trips being very elastic. Although cash payments naturally increase the fraction of users that pay exclusively with cash, more than half of the users have access to both cards and cash, and alternate between payment methods. We find evidence consistent with cash and card payments being imperfectly substitutable at both the intensive and extensive margins, which magnifies the effect of policies that restrict the availability of payment methods.
Many school districts with centralized school choice adopt strategy-proof assignment mechanisms to relieve applicants from needing to strategize based on beliefs about their own admissions chances. This article shows that beliefs about admissions chances shape choice outcomes even when the assignment mechanism is strategy-proof by influencing how applicants search for schools and that “smart matching platforms” that provide live feedback on admissions chances help applicants search more effectively. Motivated by a model in which applicants engage in costly search for schools and overoptimism can lead to undersearch, we use data from a large-scale survey of choice participants in Chile to show that learning about schools is hard, beliefs about admissions chances guide the decision to stop searching, and applicants systematically underestimate nonplacement risk. We use RCT and RD research designs to evaluate scaled live feedback policies in the Chilean and New Haven choice systems. Twenty-two percent of applicants submitting applications where risks of nonplacement are high respond to warnings by adding schools to their lists, reducing nonplacement risk by 58% and increasing test score value added at the schools where they enroll by 0.10 standard deviations. Reducing the burden of school choice requires not just strategy-proofness inside the centralized system but also choice supports for the strategic decisions that inevitably remain outside of it.
Bottom-up stimulus-driven visual salience is largely automatic, effortless, and independent of a person’s “top-down” perceptual goals; it depends only on features of a visual stimulus. Algorithms have been carefully trained to predict stimulus-driven salience values for each pixel in any image. The economic question we address is whether these salience values help explain economic decisions. Our first experimental analysis shows that when people pick between sets of fruits that have artificially induced value, predicted salience (which is uncorrelated with value by design) leads to mistakes. Our second analysis uses evidence from games in which choices are locations in images. When players are trying to cooperatively match locations, predicted salience is highly correlated with the success of matching (r = .57). In competitive hider-seeker location games, players choose salient locations more often than predicted by the unique Nash equilibrium. This tendency creates a disequilibrium “seeker’s advantage” (seekers win more often than predicted in equilibrium). The result can be explained by level-k models in which predicted stimulus-driven salience influences level-0 choices and thereby influences overall perceptions, beliefs, and choices of higher-level players. The third analysis shows that there is an effect of visual salience in matrix games, but it is small and statistically weak. Applications to behavioral IO, price and tax salience, nudges and design, and visually influenced beliefs are suggested.
We document two robust features of the cross-sectional distribution of usual weekly hours and hourly wages. First, usual weekly hours are heavily concentrated around 40 hours, while at the same time a substantial share of total hours come from individuals who work more than 50 hours. Second, mean hourly wages are nonmonotonic across the usual hours distribution, with a peak at 50 hours. We develop and estimate a model of labor supply to account for these features. The novel feature of our model is that earnings are nonlinear in hours, with the extent of nonlinearity varying over the hours distribution. Our estimates imply significant wage penalties for people who deviate from 40 hours in either direction, leading to a large mass of people who work 40 hours and are not very responsive to shocks. This has important implications for the role of labor supply as a mechanism for self-insurance in a standard heterogeneous-agent incomplete-markets model and for empirical strategies designed to estimate labor supply parameters.
We study the results of a massive nationwide correspondence experiment sending more than 83,000 fictitious applications with randomized characteristics to geographically dispersed jobs posted by 108 of the largest U.S. employers. Distinctively Black names reduce the probability of employer contact by 2.1 percentage points relative to distinctively white names. The magnitude of this racial gap in contact rates differs substantially across firms, exhibiting a between-company standard deviation of 1.9 percentage points. Despite an insignificant average gap in contact rates between male and female applicants, we find a between-company standard deviation in gender contact gaps of 2.7 percentage points, revealing that some firms favor male applicants and others favor women. Company-specific racial contact gaps are temporally and spatially persistent, and negatively correlated with firm profitability, federal contractor status, and a measure of recruiting centralization. Discrimination exhibits little geographical dispersion, but two-digit industry explains roughly half of the cross-firm variation in both racial and gender contact gaps. Contact gaps are highly concentrated in particular companies, with firms in the top quintile of racial discrimination responsible for nearly half of lost contacts to Black applicants in the experiment. Controlling false discovery rates to the 5% level, 23 companies are found to discriminate against Black applicants. Our findings establish that discrimination against distinctively Black names is concentrated among a select set of large employers, many of which can be identified with high confidence using large-scale inference methods.
Using 40 countries’ subnational data, we estimate age-specific mortality-temperature relationships and extrapolate them to countries without data today and into a future with climate change. We uncover a U-shaped relationship where extre6me cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, especially for the elderly. Critically, this relationship is flattened by higher incomes and adaptation to local climate. Using a revealed-preference approach to recover unobserved adaptation costs, we estimate that the mean global increase in mortality risk due to climate change, accounting for adaptation benefits and costs, is valued at roughly 3.2% of global GDP in 2100 under a high-emissions scenario. Notably, today’s cold locations are projected to benefit, while today’s poor and hot locations have large projected damages. Finally, our central estimates indicate that the release of an additional ton of CO2 today will cause mortality-related damages of $36.6 under a high-emissions scenario, with an interquartile range accounting for both econometric and climate uncertainty of [−$7.8, $73.0]. These empirically grounded estimates exceed the previous literature’s estimates by an order of magnitude.
I show that a disruption to the financial sector can reshape the patterns of global trade for decades. I study the first modern global banking crisis originating in London in 1866 and collect archival loan records that link multinational banks headquartered there to their lending abroad. Countries exposed to bank failures in London immediately exported significantly less and did not recover their lost growth relative to unexposed places. Their market shares within each destination also remained significantly lower for four decades. Decomposing the persistent market-share losses shows that they primarily stem from lack of extensive-margin growth, as the financing shock caused importers to source more from new trade partnerships. Exporters producing more substitutable goods, those with little access to alternative forms of credit, and those trading with more distant partners experienced more persistent losses, consistent with the existence of sunk costs and the importance of finance for intermediating trade.
We describe how sexual harassment contributes to sex segregation and pay inequality in the labor market. Combining nationally representative survey data and administrative data, we show that both harassment and wages vary strongly and systematically across workplaces. Women self-report more harassment from colleagues and managers in male-dominated workplaces where wages are relatively high, and men self-report more harassment in female-dominated workplaces where wages are low. These patterns imply two ways that harassment may contribute to gender inequality. First, harassment deters women and men from applying for jobs in workplaces where they are the gender minority. A survey experiment with hypothetical job choices supports this mechanism. Respondents are highly averse to accepting jobs in workplaces with a higher harassment risk for their own gender, but less averse when people of the opposite sex are at higher risk. A second way that harassment contributes to inequality is by making workplace gender minorities leave their workplaces for new jobs. An analysis of workplace transitions supports this mechanism. Women who self-report harassment are more likely to switch to new workplaces with more female colleagues and lower pay.
Economic theory predicts that outsourcing public services to private firms reduces costs, but the effect on quality is ambiguous. We explore quality differences between publicly and privately owned ambulances in Stockholm County, Sweden, a setting where patients are as good as randomly assigned to ambulances with different ownership status. We find that private ambulances reduce costs and perform better on contracted measures such as response time, but perform worse on noncontracted measures such as mortality. In fact, a patient has a 1.4% higher risk of death within three years if a private ambulance is dispatched (in aggregate, 420 more deaths each year). We also present evidence of the mechanism at work, suggesting that private firms cut costs at the expense of ambulance staff quality.
We estimate the effect of losing Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits at age 18 on criminal justice and employment outcomes over the next two decades. To estimate this effect, we use a regression discontinuity design in the likelihood of being reviewed for SSI eligibility at age 18 created by the 1996 welfare reform law. We evaluate this natural experiment with Social Security Administration data linked to records from the Criminal Justice Administrative Records System. We find that SSI removal increases the number of criminal charges by a statistically significant 20% over the next two decades. The increase in charges is concentrated in offenses for which income generation is a primary motivation (60% increase), especially theft, burglary, fraud/forgery, and prostitution. The effect of SSI removal on criminal justice involvement persists more than two decades later, even as the effect of removal on contemporaneous SSI receipt diminishes. In response to SSI removal, youth are twice as likely to be charged with an illicit income-generating offense than they are to maintain steady employment at |${\$}$|15,000/year in the labor market. As a result of these charges, the annual likelihood of incarceration increases by a statistically significant 60% in the two decades following SSI removal. The costs to taxpayers of enforcement and incarceration from SSI removal are so high that they nearly eliminate the savings to taxpayers from reduced SSI benefits.
A large literature in cognitive science studies the puzzling “Flynn effect” of rising fluid intelligence (reasoning skill) in rich countries. We develop an economic model in which a cohort’s mix of skills is determined by different skills’ relative returns in the labor market and by the technology for producing skills. We estimate the model using administrative data from Sweden. Combining data from exams taken at military enlistment with earnings records from the tax register, we document an increase in the relative labor market return to logical reasoning skill as compared to vocabulary knowledge. The estimated model implies that changes in labor market returns explain 37% of the measured increase in reasoning skill, and can also explain the decline in knowledge. An original survey of parents, an analysis of trends in school curricula, and an analysis of occupational characteristics show evidence of increasing emphasis on reasoning as compared to knowledge.
Since the beginning of the all-volunteer era, millions of young Americans have chosen to enlist in the military. These volunteers disproportionately come from disadvantaged backgrounds, and while some aspects of military service are likely to be beneficial, exposure to violence and other elements of service could worsen outcomes. This article links the universe of army applicants between 1990 and 2011 to their federal tax records and other administrative data and uses two eligibility thresholds in the Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) in a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effects of army enlistment on earnings and related outcomes. In the 19 years following application, army service increases average annual earnings by over |${\$}$|4,000 at both cutoffs. However, whether service increases long-run earnings varies significantly by race. Black servicemembers experience annual gains of |${\$}$|5,500 to |${\$}$|15,000 11–19 years after applying while white servicemembers do not experience significant changes. By providing Black servicemembers a stable and well-paying army job and by opening doors to higher-paid postservice employment, the army significantly closes the Black-white earnings gap in our sample.
Different agents need to make a prediction. They observe identical data, but have different models: they predict using different explanatory variables. We study which agent believes they have the best predictive ability—as measured by the smallest subjective posterior mean squared prediction error—and show how it depends on the sample size. With small samples, we present results suggesting it is an agent using a low-dimensional model. With large samples, it is generally an agent with a high-dimensional model, possibly including irrelevant variables, but never excluding relevant ones. We apply our results to characterize the winning model in an auction of productive assets, to argue that entrepreneurs and investors with simple models will be overrepresented in new sectors, and to understand the proliferation of “factors” that explain the cross-sectional variation of expected stock returns in the asset-pricing literature.
Using a randomized experiment with an automobile manufacturing firm in China, we measure the effects of letting workers evaluate their managers on worker and firm outcomes. In the treatment teams, workers evaluate their managers monthly. We find that providing feedback leads to significant reductions in worker turnover and increases in team-level productivity. In addition, workers report higher levels of happiness and well-being. The evidence suggests that these results are driven by learning by managers, leading to changes in their behavior and an overall better relationship between managers and workers.
We use a field experiment to study price discrimination in a market with price posting and negotiation. Motivated by concerns that low-income consumers do poorly in markets with privately negotiated prices, we built a call center staffed with actors armed with bargaining scripts to reveal negotiated prices and their determinants. Our actors implement sequential bargaining games under incomplete information in the field. By experimentally manipulating how information is revealed, we generate sequences of price offers that allow us to identify price discrimination in negotiations based on retailer perceptions of consumers’ search and switching costs. We also document differences in price distributions between entrants and incumbents, reflecting differences in captivity of their respective consumer bases. Finally, we show that higher prices paid by lower-income subsidy recipients in our market is not due to discriminatory targeting; they can be explained by variation in consumer willingness and ability to search and bargain.
We provide new evidence that cash transfers following the birth of a first child can have large and long-lasting effects on that child’s outcomes. We take advantage of the January 1 birthdate cutoff for U.S. child-related tax benefits, which results in families of otherwise similar children receiving substantially different refunds during the first year of life. For the average low-income single-child family in our sample, this difference amounts to roughly |${\$}$|1,300, or 10% of income. Using the universe of administrative federal tax data in selected years, we show that this transfer in infancy increases young adult earnings by at least 1%–2%, with larger effects for males. These effects show up at earlier ages in terms of improved math and reading test scores and a higher likelihood of high-school graduation. The observed effects on shorter-run parental outcomes suggest that additional liquidity during the critical window following the birth of a first child leads to persistent increases in family income that likely contribute to the downstream effects on children’s outcomes. The longer-term effects on child earnings alone are large enough that the transfer pays for itself through subsequent increases in federal income tax revenue.
Clustered standard errors, with clusters defined by factors such as geography, are widespread in empirical research in economics and many other disciplines. Formally, clustered standard errors adjust for the correlations induced by sampling the outcome variable from a data-generating process with unobserved cluster-level components. However, the standard econometric framework for clustering leaves important questions unanswered: (i) Why do we adjust standard errors for clustering in some ways but not others, for example, by state but not by gender, and in observational studies but not in completely randomized experiments? (ii) Is the clustered variance estimator valid if we observe a large fraction of the clusters in the population? (iii) In what settings does the choice of whether and how to cluster make a difference? We address these and other questions using a novel framework for clustered inference on average treatment effects. In addition to the common sampling component, the new framework incorporates a design component that accounts for the variability induced on the estimator by the treatment assignment mechanism. We show that, when the number of clusters in the sample is a nonnegligible fraction of the number of clusters in the population, conventional clustered standard errors can be severely inflated, and propose new variance estimators that correct for this bias.
The economic analysis of racial discrimination in public accommodations is remarkably limited. To study this issue, we construct a national data set of nondiscriminatory establishments from the Negro Motorist Green Books, a travel guide published from 1936 to 1966 to aid Black Americans in finding nondiscriminatory retail and service establishments. We document patterns in the geographic spread and evolution of Green Book establishments, as well as the correlates of Green Book presence. We find that economic and social measures, as well as state laws relating to racial discrimination and antidiscrimination, were correlated with the provision of nondiscriminatory services. We then use the Green Book data to test whether market conditions and white consumer discrimination led businesses to bar Black customers prior to the Civil Rights Act of 1964. We use plausibly exogenous variation from white World War II casualties and Black migration patterns to isolate the effect of a change in the racial composition of consumers on the growth of nondiscriminatory businesses. We find that the share of nondiscriminatory establishments grew faster in locations with larger increases in the share of the Black population, but the magnitudes were small. These results highlight the importance of federal legislation in ending racial discrimination in public accommodations.
We experimentally test several approaches to increasing the demand for workers with a criminal record on a nationwide staffing platform by addressing potential downside risk and productivity concerns. The staffing platform asked hiring managers to make a series of hypothetical hiring decisions that affected whether workers with a criminal record could accept their jobs in the future. We find that 39% of businesses in our sample are willing to work with individuals with a criminal record at baseline, which rises to over 50% when businesses are offered crime and safety insurance, a single performance review, or a limited background check covering just the past year. Wage subsidies can achieve similar increases but at a substantially higher cost. Based on our findings, the staffing platform relaxed the criminal background check requirement and offered crime and safety insurance to interested businesses.
We evaluate the impact of a training program aimed at improving the relational atmosphere in the workplace. The program encourages prosocial behavior and the use of professional language, focusing primarily on leaders’ behavior and leader-subordinate interactions. We implement this program using a clustered randomized design involving over 3,000 headquarters employees of 20 large corporations in Turkey. We evaluate the program with respect to employee separation, pro- and antisocial behavior, the prevalence of support networks, and perceived workplace climate. We find that treated firms have a lower likelihood of employee separation at the leadership level, fewer employees lacking professional and personal help, and denser, less segregated support networks. We also find that employees in treated corporations are less inclined to engage in toxic competition, exhibit higher reciprocity toward each other, and report higher workplace satisfaction and a more collegial environment. The program’s success in improving leader-subordinate relationships emerges as a likely mechanism to explain these results. Treated subordinates report higher professionalism and empathy in their leaders and are more likely to consider their leaders as professional support providers.
We develop a new data set to study asset specificity among nonfinancial firms. Our data cover the liquidation values of each category of assets on firms’ balance sheets and provides information across major industries. First, we find that nonfinancial firms have high asset specificity. For example, the liquidation value of fixed assets is 35% of the net book value in the average industry. Second, we analyze the determinants of asset specificity and document that assets’ physical attributes (e.g., mobility, durability, and customization) play a crucial role. Third, we investigate several implications. Consistent with theories of investment irreversibility, high asset specificity is associated with less disinvestment and stronger effects of uncertainty on investment activities. We also find that the increasing prevalence of intangible assets has not significantly reduced firms’ liquidation values.
In many economic decisions, people estimate probabilities, such as the likelihood that a risk materializes or that a job applicant will be a productive employee, by retrieving experiences from memory. We model this process based on two established regularities of selective recall: similarity and interference. We show that the similarity structure of a hypothesis and the way it is described (not just its objective probability) shape the recall of experiences and thus probability assessments. The model accounts for and reconciles a variety of empirical findings, such as overestimation of unlikely events when these are cued versus neglect of noncued ones, the availability heuristic, the representativeness heuristic, conjunction and disjunction fallacies, and over- versus underreaction to information in different situations. The model yields several new predictions, for which we find strong experimental support.
We develop a novel bounded rationality model of imperfect reasoning as the interaction between automatic (System 1) and analytical (System 2) thinking. In doing so, we formalize the empirical consensus of cognitive psychology using a structural, constrained-optimal economic framework of mental information acquisition about the unknown optimal policy function. A key result is that agents reason less (more) when facing usual (unusual) states of the world, producing state- and history-dependent behavior. Our application is an otherwise standard incomplete-markets model with no a priori behavioral biases. The ergodic distribution of actions and beliefs is characterized by endogenous learning traps, where locally stable state dynamics generate familiar regions of the state space within which behavior appears to follow memory-based heuristics. This results in endogenous behavioral biases that have many empirically desirable properties: the marginal propensity to consume is high even for unconstrained agents, hand-to-mouth status is more frequent and persistent, and there is more wealth inequality than in the standard model.
We use admissions lotteries to estimate the effects of large-scale public preschool in Boston on college-going, college preparation, standardized test scores, and behavioral outcomes. Preschool enrollment boosts college attendance as well as SAT test taking and high school graduation. Preschool also decreases high school disciplinary measures including juvenile incarceration, but has no detectable effect on state achievement test scores. An analysis of subgroups shows that effects on college enrollment, SAT-taking, and disciplinary outcomes are larger for boys than for girls. Our findings illustrate possibilities for large-scale modern, public preschool and highlight the importance of measuring long-term and non–test score outcomes in evaluating the effectiveness of education programs.
Can political rallies affect the behavior of law enforcement officers toward racial minorities? Using data from 35 million traffic stops, we show that the probability that a stopped driver is Black increases by 5.74% after a Trump rally during his 2015–2016 campaign. The effect is immediate, specific to Black drivers, lasts for up to 60 days after the rally, and is not justified by changes in driver behavior. The effects are significantly larger among law enforcement officers whose estimated racial bias is higher at baseline, in areas that score higher on present-day measures of racial resentment, those that experienced more racial violence during the Jim Crow era, and in former slave-holding counties. Mentions of racial issues in Trump speeches, whether explicit or implicit, exacerbate the effect of a Trump rally among officers with higher estimated racial bias.
We demonstrate an important complementarity between patriotism and public-good provision. After 1933, the New Deal led to an unprecedented expansion of the U.S. federal government’s role. Those who benefited from social spending were markedly more patriotic during World War II: they bought more war bonds, volunteered more, and, as soldiers, won more medals. This pattern was new—World War I volunteering did not show the same geography of patriotism. We match military service records with the 1940 census to show that this pattern holds at the individual level. Using geographical variation, we exploit two instruments to suggest that the effect is causal: droughts and congressional committee representation predict more New Deal agricultural support, as well as bond buying, volunteering, and medals.
This article uses administrative tax data to estimate top wealth in the United States. We assemble new data that link people to their sources of capital income and develop new methods to estimate the degree of return heterogeneity within asset classes. Disaggregated fixed-income data reveal that rich individuals earn much more of their interest income in higher-yielding forms and have much greater exposure to credit risk. Consequently, in recent years, the interest rate on fixed income at the top is approximately 3.5 times higher than the average. We value the population of U.S. firms using firm-level characteristics and apportion this wealth using firm-owner links. We combine this new data on fixed income and pass-through business returns with refined estimates of C-corporation equity, housing, and pension wealth to deliver new capitalized wealth estimates that build upon the methods of Saez and Zucman (2016a). From 1989 to 2016, the top 1%, 0.1%, and 0.01% wealth shares increased by 6.6, 4.6, and 2.9 percentage points, respectively, to 33.7%, 15.7%, and 7.1%. Overall, although we estimate a large degree of return heterogeneity, accounting for this heterogeneity does not change the fundamental story for top wealth shares and their growth—wealth inequality is high and has risen substantially over recent decades.
This article presents a new methodology to detect corruption in customs and applies it to Madagascar’s main port. Manipulation of assignment of import declarations to inspectors is identified by measuring deviations from random assignment prescribed by official rules. Deviant declarations are more at risk of tax evasion, yet less likely to be deemed fraudulent by inspectors, who also clear them faster. An intervention in which inspector assignment was delegated to a third party validates our approach, but also triggered a novel manifestation of manipulation that rejuvenated systemic corruption. Tax revenue losses associated with the corruption scheme are approximately 3% of total taxes collected and are highly concentrated among a select few inspectors and brokers.
This article studies how innovation reacts to climate change and shapes its economic impacts, focusing on U.S. agriculture. We show in a model that directed innovation can either mitigate or exacerbate climate change’s potential economic damage depending on the substitutability between new technology and favorable climatic conditions. To empirically investigate the technological response to climate change, we measure crop-specific exposure to damaging extreme temperatures and crop-specific innovation embodied in new variety releases and patents. We find that innovation has redirected since the mid-twentieth century toward crops with increasing exposure to extreme temperatures. Moreover, this effect is driven by types of agricultural technology most related to environmental adaptation. We next show that U.S. counties’ exposure to induced innovation significantly dampens the local economic damage from extreme temperatures. Combining these estimates with the model, we find that directed innovation has offset 20% of potential losses in U.S. agricultural land value due to damaging climate trends since 1960 and that innovation could offset 13% of projected damage by 2100. These findings highlight the vital importance, but incomplete effectiveness, of endogenous technological change as a source of adaptation to climate change.
We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process. Our data include 253,000 observations. We compare the consistency between vote intention and vote choice of respondents surveyed at different points before, and then again after, the election, and show that 17% to 29% of voters make up their mind during the final two months of campaigns. Changes in vote choice are concomitant to shifts in issues voters find most important and in beliefs about candidates, and they generate sizable swings in vote shares. In contrast, policy preferences remain remarkably stable throughout the campaign. Finally, we use an event study to estimate the impact of TV debates, in which candidates themselves communicate with voters, and of shocks such as natural and technological disasters which, by contrast, occur independently from the campaign. We do not find any effect of either type of event on vote choice formation, suggesting that information received throughout the campaign from other sources such as the media, political activists, and other citizens is more impactful.
We present a unified treatment of how welfare responds to changes in budget sets or technologies with taste shocks and nonhomothetic preferences. We propose a welfare metric that ranks production possibility frontiers that differs from one that ranks budget sets and characterize it using a general equilibrium generalization of Hicksian demand. This extends Hulten’s theorem, the basis for constructing aggregate quantity indices, to environments with nonhomothetic and unstable preferences. We illustrate our results using both long- and short-run applications. In the long run, we show that if structural transformation is caused by income effects or changes in tastes, rather than substitution effects, then Baumol’s cost disease is twice as important for our preferred measure of welfare. In the short run, we show that standard chain-weighted deflators understate welfare-relevant inflation for current tastes. Finally, using the COVID-19 recession, we illustrate that chain-weighted real consumption and real GDP are unreliable metrics for measuring welfare or production when there are taste shocks.
How does wealth taxation differ from capital income taxation? When the return on investment is equal across individuals, a well-known result is that the two tax systems are equivalent. Motivated by recent empirical evidence documenting persistent return heterogeneity, we revisit this question. With heterogeneity, the two tax systems typically have opposite implications for efficiency and inequality. Under capital income taxation, entrepreneurs who are more productive and therefore generate more income pay higher taxes. Under wealth taxation, entrepreneurs who have similar wealth levels pay similar taxes regardless of their productivity, which expands the tax base, shifts the tax burden toward unproductive entrepreneurs, and raises the savings rate of productive ones. This reallocation increases aggregate productivity and output. In the simulated model parameterized to match the U.S. data, replacing the capital income tax with a wealth tax in a revenue-neutral way delivers a significantly higher average welfare. Turning to optimal taxation, the optimal wealth tax (OWT) is positive and yields large welfare gains by raising efficiency and lowering inequality. In contrast, the optimal capital income tax (OKIT) is negative—a subsidy—and delivers lower welfare gains than OWT, owing to the welfare losses from higher inequality. Furthermore, when the transition path is considered, the gains from OKIT turn into significant welfare losses for existing cohorts, whereas OWT continues to deliver robust welfare gains. These results suggest that moderate wealth taxation may be a more appealing alternative than capital income taxation, which can be significantly more distorting under return heterogeneity than under the equal-returns assumption.
This article studies how federal funding affects the innovation outputs of university researchers. We link person-level research grants from 22 universities to patents, publications, and career outcomes from the U.S. Census Bureau. We focus on the effects of large, idiosyncratic, and temporary cuts to federal funding in a researcher’s preexisting narrow field of study. Using an event study design, we document that these negative federal funding shocks reduce high-tech entrepreneurship and publications but increase patenting. The lost publications tend to be higher quality and more basic, whereas the additional patents tend to be lower quality, less general, and more often privately assigned. These federal funding cuts lead to an increase in private funding, which partially compensates for the decline in federal funding. Together with evidence from industry-university contracts, the results suggest that federal funding cuts shift university research funding from federal to private sources and lead to innovation outputs that are less openly accessible and more often appropriated by corporate funders.
We study learning via shared news. Each period agents receive the same quantity and quality of firsthand information and can share it with friends. Some friends (possibly few) share selectively, generating heterogeneous news diets across agents. Agents are aware of selective sharing and update beliefs by Bayes’s rule. Contrary to standard learning results, we show that beliefs can diverge in this environment, leading to polarization. This requires that (i) agents hold misperceptions (even minor) about friends’ sharing and (ii) information quality is sufficiently low. Polarization can worsen when agents’ friend networks expand. When the quantity of firsthand information becomes large, agents can hold opposite extreme beliefs, resulting in severe polarization. We find that news aggregators can curb polarization caused by news sharing. Our results hold without media bias or fake news, so eliminating these is not sufficient to reduce polarization. When fake news is included, it can lead to polarization but only through misperceived selective sharing. We apply our theory to shed light on the polarization of public opinion about climate change in the United States.
There are three prevailing theories of mortgage default: strategic default (driven by negative equity), cash flow default (driven by negative life events), and double-trigger default (where both negative triggers are necessary). It has been difficult to compare these theories in part because negative life events are measured with error. We address this measurement error using a comparison group of borrowers with no strategic-default motive. Our central finding is that only 6% of underwater defaults are caused exclusively by negative equity, an order of magnitude lower than previously thought. We then analyze the remaining defaults. We find that 70% are driven solely by negative life events (i.e., cash flow defaults), while 24% are driven by the interaction between negative life events and negative equity (i.e., double-trigger defaults). Together, the results provide a full decomposition of the theories underlying borrower default and suggest that negative life events play a central role.
Scholars have argued that powerful individuals can exert influence on the path of a nation’s development. Yet the process through which people can have an effect on macro-level political economy outcomes remains unclear. This study uses the deadliest civil war in modern history, the Taiping Rebellion (1850–1864), to elucidate how one person—Zeng Guofan—used his personal elite networks to organize an army to suppress the rebellion, and how these networks would affect the nation’s power distribution. Two findings stand out: (i) counties that already had more prewar elites in Zeng’s networks experienced an increase in soldier deaths after he took power; and (ii) postwar political power shifted significantly toward the home counties of these elites, creating a less balanced national-level power distribution. Our findings highlight how micro-level elite networks can influence national politics and societal power distribution, shedding new light on the relationship between elites, war, and the state.
We argue that modeling trade imbalances is crucial for understanding transitional dynamics in response to globalization shocks. We build and estimate a general equilibrium, multicountry, multisector model of trade with two key ingredients: (i) endogenous trade imbalances arising from households’ consumption and saving decisions; (ii) labor market frictions across and within sectors. We use our model to perform several empirical exercises. We find that the “China shock” accounted for 28% of the decline in U.S. manufacturing between 2000 and 2014—1.65 times the magnitude predicted from a model imposing balanced trade. A concurrent rise in U.S. service employment led to a negligible aggregate unemployment response. We benchmark our model’s predictions for the gains from trade against the popular ACR sufficient-statistics approach. We find that our predictions for the long-run gains from trade and consumption dynamics significantly diverge.
Patterns of state formation have crucial implications for comparative economic development. Diamond (1997) famously argued that “fractured land” was responsible for China’s tendency toward political unification and Europe’s protracted polycentrism. We build a dynamic model with granular geographical information in terms of topographical features and the location of productive agricultural land to quantitatively gauge the effects of fractured land on state formation in Eurasia. We find that topography alone is sufficient but not necessary to explain polycentrism in Europe and unification in China. Differences in land productivity, in particular the existence of a core region of high land productivity in northern China, deliver the same result. We discuss how our results map into observed historical outcomes, assess how robust our findings are, and analyze the differences between theory and data in Africa and the Americas.
We study time-consistent bank resolution mechanisms. The key constraint is that governments cannot avoid bailouts that are ex post efficient. Contrary to common wisdom, we show that the government may still avoid moral hazard and implement the first-best allocation by using the distribution of bailouts across banks to provide incentives. We analyze properties of credible tournament mechanisms that provide support to the best-performing banks and resolve the worst-performing ones. We extend our mechanism and show that it continues to perform well when banks are imperfect substitutes, when they are differentially interconnected as long as bailout funds can be earmarked, and when their risk-taking is driven by overoptimism instead of moral hazard.
We estimate the push and pull factors involved in the outmigration of Jews facing persecution in Nazi Germany from 1933 to 1941. Our empirical investigation makes use of a unique individual-level data set that records the migration history of the Jewish community in Germany over the period. Our analysis highlights new channels, specific to violent contexts, through which social networks affect the decision to flee. We estimate a structural model of migration where individuals base their migration decision on the observation of persecution and migration among their peers. Identification rests on exogenous variations in local push and pull factors across peers who live in different cities of residence. Then we perform various experiments of counterfactual history to quantify how migration restrictions in destination countries affected the fate of Jews. For example, removing work restrictions for refugees in the recipient countries after the Nuremberg Laws (1935) would have led to an increase in Jewish migration out of Germany in the range of 12% to 20% and a reduction in mortality due to prevented deportations in the range of 6% to 10%.
Recent scholarship has suggested that artificial intelligence (AI) technology and autocratic regimes may be mutually reinforcing. We test for a mutually reinforcing relationship in the context of facial-recognition AI in China. To do so, we gather comprehensive data on AI firms and government procurement contracts, as well as on social unrest across China since the early 2010s. We first show that autocrats benefit from AI: local unrest leads to greater government procurement of facial-recognition AI as a new technology of political control, and increased AI procurement indeed suppresses subsequent unrest. We show that AI innovation benefits from autocrats’ suppression of unrest: the contracted AI firms innovate more both for the government and commercial markets and are more likely to export their products; noncontracted AI firms do not experience detectable negative spillovers. Taken together, these results suggest the possibility of sustained AI innovation under the Chinese regime: AI innovation entrenches the regime, and the regime’s investment in AI for political control stimulates further frontier innovation.
Dissent plays an important role in any society, but dissenters are often silenced through social sanctions. Beyond their persuasive effects, rationales providing arguments supporting dissenters’ causes can increase the public expression of dissent by providing a “social cover” for voicing otherwise stigmatized positions. Motivated by a simple theoretical framework, we experimentally show that liberals are more willing to post a tweet opposing the movement to defund the police, are seen as less prejudiced, and face lower social sanctions when their tweet implies they had first read credible scientific evidence supporting their position. Analogous experiments with conservatives demonstrate that the same mechanisms facilitate anti-immigrant expression. Our findings highlight both the power of rationales and their limitations in enabling dissent and shed light on phenomena such as social movements, political correctness, propaganda, and antiminority behavior.
Communities across the United States are reconsidering the public safety benefits of prosecuting nonviolent misdemeanor offenses, yet there is little empirical evidence to inform policy in this area. We report the first estimates of the causal effects of misdemeanor prosecution on defendants’ subsequent criminal justice involvement. We leverage the as-if random assignment of nonviolent misdemeanor cases to assistant district attorneys (ADAs) who decide whether a case should be prosecuted in the Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office in Massachusetts. These ADAs vary in the average leniency of their prosecution decisions. We find that for the marginal defendant, nonprosecution of a nonviolent misdemeanor offense leads to a 53% reduction in the likelihood of a new criminal complaint and a 60% reduction in the number of new criminal complaints over the next two years. These local average treatment effects are largest for defendants without prior criminal records, suggesting that averting criminal record acquisition is an important mechanism driving our findings. We also present evidence that a recent policy change in Suffolk County imposing a presumption of nonprosecution for nonviolent misdemeanor offenses had similar beneficial effects, decreasing the likelihood of subsequent criminal justice involvement.
Unemployment rates differ widely across local labor markets. I offer new empirical evidence that high local unemployment emerges because of elevated local job-losing rates. Local employers, rather than local workers or location-specific factors, account for most of the spatial gaps in job stability. I propose a theory in which spatial differences in job loss emerge in equilibrium because of systematic differences between employers across local labor markets. The spatial sorting decisions of employers in turn shape heterogeneity across locations. Labor market frictions induce productive employers to overvalue locating close to each other. The optimal policy incentivizes them to relocate toward areas with high job-losing rates, providing a rationale for commonly used place-based policies. I estimate the model using French administrative data. The estimated model accounts for over three-quarters of the cross-sectional dispersion in unemployment rates and for the respective contributions of job-losing and job-finding rates. Inefficient location choices by employers amplify spatial unemployment differentials fivefold. Both real-world and optimal place-based policies can yield sizable local and aggregate welfare gains.
This article shows how the migration of millions of Southern whites in the twentieth century shaped the cultural and political landscape across the United States. Racially and religiously conservative, Southern white migrants created new electoral possibilities for a broad-based coalition with economic conservatives. With their considerable geographic scope, these migrants hastened partisan realignment and helped catalyze and bolster a New Right movement with national influence over the long run. More than just augmenting the conservative voter base outside the South, they influenced non-Southerners by building evangelical churches, diffusing right-wing media, and mixing through intermarriage and residential integration. Tracking non-Southern households, we show that exposure to Southern white neighbors increased adoption of conservative religious norms. Overall, our findings suggest that this mass migration blurred the North–South cultural divide and reshaped the geography of conservatism in the United States.
Market power of intermediaries contributes to the low incomes of farmers in India. I study the role of spatial competition between intermediaries in determining the prices that farmers receive in India by focusing on a law that restricts farmers to selling their goods to intermediaries in their own state. I show that the discontinuities in market power generated by the law translate into discontinuities in prices. Increasing spatial competition by one standard deviation causes prices received by farmers to increase by 6.4%. I propose and estimate a quantitative spatial model of bargaining and trade to shed light on spatial and aggregate implications. Estimates from the structural model suggest that removing the interstate trade restriction in India would increase competition between intermediaries. Thereby average farmer prices and their output would increase by at least 11% and 7%, respectively. The value of the national crop output would increase by at least 18%. However, there are distributional consequences as well, as some farmers stand to lose due to increased local production.
We investigate biases in expectations across different settings through a large-scale randomized experiment where participants forecast stable stochastic processes. The experiment allows us to control forecasters’ information sets as well as the data-generating process, so we can cleanly measure biases in beliefs. We report three facts. First, forecasts display significant overreaction to the most recent observation. Second, overreaction is stronger for less persistent processes. Third, overreaction is also stronger for longer forecast horizons. We develop a tractable model of expectations formation with costly processing of past information, which closely fits the empirical facts. We also perform additional experiments to test the mechanism of the model.
This article studies the macroeconomic implications of imperfect risk sharing implied by a class of New Keynesian models with heterogeneous agents. The models in this class can be equivalently represented as a representative-agent economy with wedges. These wedges are functions of households’ consumption shares and relative wages, and they identify the key cross-sectional moments that govern the impact of households’ heterogeneity on aggregate variables. We measure the wedges using U.S. household-level data and combine them with a representative-agent economy to perform counterfactuals. We find that deviations from perfect risk sharing implied by this class of models account for only 7% of output volatility on average but can have sizable output effects when nominal interest rates reach their lower bound.
This article examines the relationship between ethnic-based gender norms and conflict-related sexual violence. We generate a novel dyadic data set that contains information on the ethnic identity of all the actors involved in ethnic civil conflicts around the world between 1989 and 2019 and their use of sexual violence. We exploit ethnographic information to construct a new male dominance index at the ethnicity level that captures deep-rooted gender norms. First, we find that male-dominant armed actors are more likely to be perpetrators of sexual violence. Second, we consider the cultural distance in gender norms between the combatants and show that sexual violence is driven by a specific clash of conceptions on the appropriate role of men and women in society: sexual violence increases when the perpetrator is more male dominant than the victim. Additional analyses suggest that gender norms influence both the strategic use of sexual violence for military purposes and the expressive use of sexual violence for private motivations. These patterns are specific to sexual violence and do not explain general violence in a conflict. Differences in other cultural dimensions unrelated to gender are not associated with conflict-related sexual violence.
Reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases may be almost impossible without a green transition—a substantial transformation of consumption and production patterns. To study such transitions, we propose a dynamic model, which differs from the common approach in economics in two ways. First, consumption patterns reflect not just changing prices and taxes, but changing values. Transitions of values and technologies create a dynamic complementarity that can help or hinder a green transition. Second, and unlike fictitious social planners, policy makers in democratic societies cannot commit to future policy paths, as they are subject to regular elections. We show that market failures and government failures can interact to prevent a welfare-increasing green transition from materializing or make an ongoing green transition too slow.
The world has 1.4 billion passenger vehicles. How should governments regulate their air pollution emissions? A Pigouvian tax is technologically infeasible. Most countries instead rely on exhaust standards that limit air pollution emissions per mile for new vehicles. We assess the effectiveness and efficiency of these standards, which are the centerpiece of U.S. Clean Air Act regulation of transportation, and counterfactual policies. We show that the air pollution emissions per mile of new U.S. vehicles has fallen spectacularly, by over 99%, since standards began in 1967. Several research designs with a half century of data suggest that exhaust standards have caused most of this decline. Yet exhaust standards are not cost-effective in part because they fail to encourage scrap of older vehicles, which account for the majority of emissions. To study counterfactual policies, we develop an analytical and a quantitative model of the vehicle fleet. Analysis of these models suggests that tighter exhaust standards increase social welfare and increasing registration fees on dirty vehicles yields even larger gains by accelerating scrap, although both reforms have complex effects on inequality.
Despite the widespread use of graphs in empirical research, little is known about readers’ ability to process the statistical information they are meant to convey (“visual inference”). We study visual inference in the context of regression discontinuity (RD) designs by measuring how accurately readers identify discontinuities in graphs produced from data-generating processes calibrated on 11 published papers from leading economics journals. First, we assess the effects of different graphical representation methods on visual inference using randomized experiments. We find that bin widths and fit lines have the largest effects on whether participants correctly perceive the presence or absence of a discontinuity. Our experimental results allow us to make evidence-based recommendations to practitioners, and we suggest using small bins with no fit lines as a starting point to construct RD graphs. Second, we compare visual inference on graphs constructed using our preferred method with widely used econometric inference procedures. We find that visual inference achieves similar or lower type I error (false positive) rates and complements econometric inference.
This article documents the economic relevance of measuring cognitive uncertainty: people’s subjective uncertainty over their ex ante utility-maximizing decision. In a series of experiments on choice under risk, the formation of beliefs, and forecasts of economic variables, we show that cognitive uncertainty predicts various systematic biases in economic decisions. When people are cognitively uncertain—either endogenously or because the problem is designed to be complex—their decisions are heavily attenuated functions of objective probabilities, which gives rise to average behavior that is regressive to an intermediate option. This insight ties together a wide range of empirical regularities in behavioral economics that are typically viewed as distinct phenomena or even as reflecting preferences, including the probability weighting function in choice under risk; base rate insensitivity, conservatism, and sample size effects in belief updating; and predictable overoptimism and -pessimism in forecasts of economic variables. Our results offer a blueprint for how a simple measurement of cognitive uncertainty generates novel insights about what people find complex and how they respond to it.
This article investigates gender differences in the job search process in the field and lab. Our analysis is based on rich information on initial job offers and acceptances from undergraduates of Boston University’s Questrom School of Business. We find (i) a clear gender difference in the timing of job offer acceptance, with women accepting jobs substantially earlier than men, and (ii) a sizable gender earnings gap in accepted offers, which narrows in favor of women over the course of the job search period. To understand these patterns, we develop a job search model that incorporates gender differences in risk aversion and overoptimism about prospective offers. We validate the model’s assumptions and predictions using the survey data and present empirical evidence that the job search patterns in the field can be partly explained by the greater risk aversion displayed by women and the higher levels of overoptimism displayed by men. We replicate these findings in a laboratory experiment that features sequential job search and provide direct evidence on the purported mechanisms. Our findings highlight the importance of risk preferences and beliefs for gender differences in job-finding behavior and, consequently, early-career wage gaps among the highly educated.
We develop a new class of general-equilibrium models with partially unfunded debt to propose a fiscal theory of persistent inflation. In response to business cycle shocks, the monetary authority controls inflation and the fiscal authority stabilizes debt. However, the central bank accommodates unfunded fiscal shocks, causing persistent movements in inflation, output, and real interest rates. In an estimated quantitative model, fiscal inflation accounts for the bulk of inflation dynamics. In the aftermath of the pandemic, unfunded fiscal shocks sustain the recovery but also cause a persistent increase in inflation. The model is able to predict the inflationary effects of the American Rescue Plan Act fiscal stimulus out of sample and with real-time data.
Children’s indirect exposure to the justice system through biological parents or coresident adults is both a marker of their own vulnerability and a measure of the justice system’s expansive reach in society. Estimating the size of this population for the United States has historically been hampered by inadequate data resources, including the inability to observe nonincarceration events, follow children throughout their childhood, and measure adult nonbiological parent cohabitants. To overcome these challenges, we leverage billions of restricted administrative and survey records linked with Criminal Justice Administrative Records System data and find substantially larger exposure rates than previously reported: prison, 9% of children born between 1999–2005; felony conviction, 18%; and any criminal charge, 39%. Charge exposure rates exceed 60% for Black, American Indian, and low-income children. While broader definitions reach a more expansive population, strong and consistently negative correlations with childhood well-being suggest that these remain valuable predictors of vulnerability. Finally, we document substantial geographic variation in exposure, which we leverage in a movers design to estimate the effect of living in a high-exposure county during childhood. We find that children moving into high-exposure counties are more likely to experience postmove exposure events and exhibit significantly worse outcomes by age 26 on multiple dimensions (earnings, criminal activity, teen parenthood, mortality); effects are strongest for those who moved at earlier ages.
Books shape how children learn about society and norms, in part through representation of different characters. We use computational tools to characterize representation in children’s books widely read in homes, classrooms, and libraries over the past century and describe economic forces that may contribute to these patterns. We introduce new artificial intelligence methods for systematically converting images into data. We apply these tools, alongside text analysis methods, to measure skin color, race, gender, and age in the content of these books, documenting what has changed and what has endured over time. We find underrepresentation of Black and Latinx people in the most influential books, relative to their population shares, though representation of Black individuals increases over time. Females are also increasingly present but appear less often in text than in images, suggesting greater symbolic inclusion in pictures than substantive inclusion in stories. Characters in these influential books have lighter average skin color than in other books, even after conditioning on race, and children are depicted with lighter skin color than adults on average. We present empirical analysis of related economic behavior to better understand the representation we find in these books. On the demand side, we show that people consume books that center their own identities and that the types of children’s books purchased correlate with local political beliefs. On the supply side, we document higher prices for books that center nondominant social identities and fewer copies of these books in libraries that serve predominantly White communities.
We provide new evidence on how labor market dynamics vary with development. We build a new data set consisting of harmonized microdata from rotating panel labor force surveys covering 80 million people from 49 countries. Labor market flows, such as the job-finding or employment exit rate, are higher in developing economies. These higher flows largely reflect a slippery job ladder: workers transition frequently to and from marginal employment without climbing to or persisting in better-paying jobs. Subsistence self-employment and different patterns of selection for wage workers each play a role in our findings and are useful avenues for future theories of labor market frictions.
We develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the supply of long-term bonds in one currency influences the foreign exchange rate between the two currencies, as well as bond term premia in both currencies. Our model matches several important empirical patterns, including the comovement between exchange rates and term premia, and the finding that central banks’ quantitative easing policies affect exchange rates. An extension of our model links spot exchange rates to the persistent deviations from covered interest rate parity that have emerged since 2008.
We study differences in markups earned by Bangladeshi garment exporters across buyers with different sourcing strategies and make three contributions. First, we distinguish buyers with a relational versus a spot sourcing strategy and show that a buyer’s sourcing strategy is correlated across products and origins. Buyer fixed effects explain most of the variation in sourcing strategies, suggesting that these depend on organizational capabilities. Second, we use novel data that match quantities and prices of the two main variable inputs in the production of garments (fabric and labor on sewing lines) to specific export orders. We derive conditions under which these data allow measurement of within exporter-product-time differences in markups across orders produced for different buyers. Third, we show that exporters earn higher markups on otherwise identical orders produced for relational, as opposed to spot, buyers. A sourcing model with imperfect contract enforcement, idiosyncratic shocks to exporters, and buyers that adopt different sourcing strategies trading off higher prices and reliable supply rationalizes this and other observed facts in the industry. We discuss alternative explanations and policy implications.
We explore efficiency and optimal policy in decentralized transport markets, such as taxis, trucks, and bulk shipping. We show that in these markets, search frictions distort the transportation network and the dynamic allocation of carriers over space. We derive explicit and intuitive conditions for efficiency and show how they translate into efficient pricing rules, or optimal taxes and subsidies for the planner who cannot set prices directly. The results imply that destination-based pricing is essential to attain efficiency. Then, using data from dry bulk shipping, we demonstrate that search frictions lead to a sizable social loss and substantial misallocation of ships over space. Optimal policy can eliminate about half of the welfare loss. Can a centralizing platform, often arising as a market-based solution to search frictions, do better? Interestingly, the answer is no; although the platform eradicates frictions, it exerts market power, thus eroding the welfare gains. Finally, we use two recent interventions in the industry (China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the environmental initiative IMO 2020) to demonstrate that taking into account the efficiency properties of transport markets is germane to any proposed policy.
By constraining an individual’s choice during a search, housing discrimination distorts sorting decisions away from true preferences and results in a ceteris paribus reduction in welfare. This study combines a large-scale field experiment with a residential sorting model to derive utility-theoretic measures of renter welfare loss associated with the constraints imposed by discrimination in the rental housing market. Results from experiments conducted in five cities show that key neighborhood amenities are associated with higher levels of discrimination. Counterfactual simulations based on the sorting model suggest that discrimination imposes damages equivalent to 4.4% and 3.5% of the annual incomes for African American and Hispanic/Latinx renters, respectively. Damages are increasing in income for African American renters, such that effects become stronger for economically mobile households. Renters of color must make substantial investments in additional search to mitigate the costs of these constraints. We find that a naive model ignoring discrimination constraints yields biased estimates of willingness to pay for key neighborhood amenities.
Close-kin marriage, by sustaining tightly knit family structures, may impede development. We find support for this hypothesis using U.S. state bans on cousin marriage. Our measure of cousin marriage comes from the excess frequency of same-surname marriages, a method borrowed from population genetics that we apply to millions of marriage records from the eighteenth to the twentieth century. Using census data, we first show that married cousins are more rural and have lower-paying occupations. We then turn to an event study analysis to understand how cousin marriage bans affected outcomes for treated birth cohorts. We find that these bans led individuals from families with high rates of cousin marriage to migrate off farms and into urban areas. They also gradually shift to higher-paying occupations. We observe increased dispersion, with individuals from these families living in a wider range of locations and adopting more diverse occupations. Our findings suggest that these changes were driven by the social and cultural effects of dispersed family ties rather than genetics. Notably, the bans also caused more people to live in institutional settings for the elderly, infirm, or destitute, suggesting weaker support from kin.
We provide evidence for a bias that we call “representative signal distortion” (RSD), which is particularly relevant to settings of statistical discrimination. Experimental subjects distort their evaluation of new evidence on individual group members and interpret such information to be more representative of the group to which the individual belongs (relative to a reference group) than it really is. This produces a discriminatory gap in the evaluation of members of the two groups. Because it is driven by representativeness, the bias (and the discriminatory gap) disappears when subjects are prevented from contrasting different groups; because it is a bias in the interpretation of information, it disappears when subjects receive information before learning of the individual’s group. We show that this bias can be easily estimated from appropriately constructed data sets and can be distinguished from previously documented inferential biases in the literature. Importantly, we document how removing the bias produces a kind of free lunch in reducing discrimination, making it possible to significantly reduce discrimination without lowering accuracy of inferences.
Gun violence is the most pressing public safety problem in U.S. cities. We report results from a randomized controlled trial (N = 2,456) of a community-researcher partnership called the Rapid Employment and Development Initiative (READI) Chicago. The program offered an 18-month job alongside cognitive behavioral therapy and other social support. Both algorithmic and human referral methods identified men with strikingly high scope for gun violence reduction: for every 100 people in the control group, there were 11 shooting and homicide victimizations during the 20-month outcome period. Fifty-five percent of the treatment group started programming, comparable to take-up rates in programs for people facing far lower mortality risk. After 20 months, there is no statistically significant change in an index combining three measures of serious violence, the study’s primary outcome. Yet there are signs that this program model has promise. One of the three measures, shooting and homicide arrests, declined 65% (p = .13 after multiple-testing adjustment). Because shootings are so costly, READI generated estimated social savings between |${\$}$|182,000 and |${\$}$|916,000 per participant (p = .03), implying a benefit-cost ratio between 4:1 and 18:1. Moreover, participants referred by outreach workers—a prespecified subgroup—saw enormous declines in arrests and victimizations for shootings and homicides (79% and 43%, respectively) which remain statistically significant even after multiple-testing adjustments. These declines are concentrated among outreach referrals with higher predicted risk, suggesting that human and algorithmic targeting may work better together.
More than two million U.S. households have an eviction case filed against them each year. Policy makers at the federal, state, and local levels are increasingly pursuing policies to reduce the number of evictions, citing harm to tenants and high public expenditures related to homelessness. We study the consequences of eviction for tenants using newly linked administrative data from two major urban areas: Cook County (which includes Chicago) and New York City. We document that before housing court, tenants experience declines in earnings and employment and increases in financial distress and hospital visits. These pre trends pose a challenge for disentangling correlation and causation. To address this problem, we use an instrumental variables approach based on cases randomly assigned to judges of varying leniency. We find that an eviction order increases homelessness and hospital visits and reduces earnings, durable goods consumption, and access to credit in the first two years. Effects on housing and labor market outcomes are driven by effects for female and Black tenants. In the longer run, eviction increases indebtedness and reduces credit scores.
We show that in a broad class of menu cost models, the first-order dynamics of aggregate inflation in response to arbitrary shocks to aggregate costs are nearly the same as in Calvo models with suitably chosen Calvo adjustment frequencies. We first prove that the canonical menu cost model is first-order equivalent to a mixture of two time-dependent models, which reflect the extensive and intensive margins of price adjustment. We then show numerically that in any plausible parameterization, this mixture is well approximated by a single Calvo model. This close numerical fit carries over to other standard specifications of menu cost models. Thus, for shocks that are not too large, the Phillips curve for a menu cost model looks like the New Keynesian Phillips curve, but with a higher slope.
Who bears the consequences of administrative problems in health care? We use data on repeated interactions between a large sample of U.S. physicians and many different insurers to document the complexity of health care billing, and estimate its economic costs for doctors and consequences for patients. Observing the back-and-forth sequences of claim denials and resubmissions for past visits, we can estimate physicians’ costs of haggling with insurers to collect payments. Combining these costs with the revenue never collected, we estimate that physicians lose 18% of Medicaid revenue to billing problems, compared with 4.7% for Medicare and 2.4% for commercial insurers. Identifying off of physician movers and practices that span state boundaries, we find that physicians respond to billing problems by refusing to accept Medicaid patients in states with more severe billing hurdles. These hurdles are quantitatively just as important as payment rates for explaining variation in physicians’ willingness to treat Medicaid patients. We conclude that administrative frictions have first-order costs for doctors, patients, and equality of access to health care. We quantify the potential economic gains—in terms of reduced public spending or increased access to physicians—if these frictions could be reduced and find them to be sizable.
This article examines the labor market implications of the EU posting policy, a large temporary migration program facilitated by the liberalization of the free provision of services in Europe. Posting allows EU firms to send (post) their employees abroad to export customer-facing services. Combining administrative data and quasi-experimental policy variation, I find that the policy permanently increased total factor mobility in Europe without crowding out traditional migration. This result suggests that unrealized gains from trade in factor services remained despite the absence of regulatory barriers to trade and migration in the EU. Furthermore, posted workers are mostly sent from low-wage countries to perform manual tasks in sectors formerly insulated from trade, and they represent a substantial share of EU migrant workers. In receiving countries, posting had persistent negative effects on employment for domestic workers in the more exposed sectors and local labor markets, but it had no effects on domestic wages. In low-wage sending countries, firms in formerly “nontradable” sectors experienced increased sales, profits, and tax payments when exporting services through posting. Posted workers earn more once sent abroad but remain paid at lower wages than comparable domestic workers in the receiving country. Wage gains for posted workers are mostly explained by minimum wages enforced by the EU policy, highlighting the role of labor market regulations in shaping the way gains from globalization are shared between labor and capital owners in origin countries.
Policy makers, firms, and researchers often choose among multiple options based on estimates. Sampling error in the estimates used to guide choice leads to a winner’s curse, since we are more likely to select a given option precisely when we overestimate its effectiveness. This winner’s curse biases our estimates for selected options upward and can invalidate conventional confidence intervals. This article develops estimators and confidence intervals that eliminate this winner’s curse. We illustrate our results by studying selection of job-training programs based on estimated earnings effects and selection of neighborhoods based on estimated economic opportunity. We find that our winner’s curse corrections can make an economically significant difference to conclusions but still allow informative inference.
We propose and implement a new approach that allows us to estimate income-specific changes in household welfare in contexts where well-measured prices are not available for important subsets of consumption. Using rich but widely available expenditure survey microdata, we show that we can recover income-specific equivalent and compensating variations from horizontal shifts in what we call “relative Engel curves”—as long as preferences fall within the broad quasi-separable class (Gorman 1970, 1976). Our approach is flexible enough to allow for nonparametric estimation at each point of the income distribution. We apply the methodology to estimate inflation and welfare changes in rural India between 1987 and 2000. Our estimates reveal that lower rates of inflation for the rich erased the real income convergence found in the existing literature that uses the subset of consumption with well-measured prices to calculate inflation.
How should we measure changes in consumer welfare given observed data on prices and expenditures? This article proposes a nonparametric approach that holds under arbitrary preferences that may depend on observable consumer characteristics, for example, when expenditure shares vary with income. Using total expenditures under a constant set of prices as our money metric for real consumption (welfare), we derive a principled measure of real consumption growth featuring a correction term relative to conventional measures. We show that the correction can be nonparametrically estimated with an algorithm leveraging the observed, cross-sectional relationship between household-level price indices and household characteristics such as income. We demonstrate the accuracy of our algorithm in simulations. Applying our approach to data from the United States, we find that the magnitude of the correction can be large because of the combination of fast growth and lower inflation for income-elastic products. Setting reference prices in 2019, we find that (i) the uncorrected measure underestimates average real consumption per household in 1955 by 11.5%, and (ii) the correction reduces the annual growth rate from 1955 to 2019 by 18 basis points, which is larger than the well-known “expenditure-switching bias” over the same time horizon.
The money metric utility function is an essential tool for calculating welfare-relevant growth and inflation. We show how to recover it from repeated cross-sectional data without making parametric assumptions about preferences. We do this by solving the following recursive problem. Given compensated demand, we construct money metric utility by integration. Given money metric utility, we construct compensated demand by matching households over time whose money metric utility value is the same. We illustrate our method using household consumption survey data from the United Kingdom from 1974 to 2017 and find that real consumption calculated using official aggregate inflation statistics overstates money metric utility in 1974 pounds for the poorest households by around 0.5% a year and understates it by around a third of a percentage point per year for the richest households. We extend our method to allow for missing or mismeasured prices, assuming preferences are separable between goods with well-measured prices and the rest. We discuss how our results change if the prices of some service sectors are mismeasured.
This article examines the consequences and causes of low enrollment of Black patients in clinical trials. We develop a simple model of similarity-based extrapolation that predicts that evidence is more relevant for decision-making by physicians and patients when it is more representative of the group being treated. This generates the key result that the perceived benefit of a medicine for a group depends not only on the average benefit from a trial but also on the share of patients from that group who were enrolled in the trial. In survey experiments, we find that physicians who care for Black patients are more willing to prescribe drugs tested in representative samples, an effect substantial enough to close observed gaps in the prescribing rates of new medicines. Black patients update more on drug efficacy when the sample that the drug is tested on is more representative, reducing Black-white patient gaps in beliefs about whether the drug will work as described. Despite these benefits of representative data, our framework and evidence suggest that those who have benefited more from past medical breakthroughs are less costly to enroll in the present, leading to persistence in who is represented in the evidence base.
Debates about the taxation of business owners often center on the distributional effects of these taxes, particularly the degree to which they affect workers. Drawing on a new linked owner-firm-worker data set created from U.S. administrative tax records, I analyze how an increase in the top marginal tax rate faced by business owners affected the earnings of their employees. I use panel difference-in-differences methods to compare the earnings of workers in similar firms but whose owners were differentially exposed to the tax increase. I estimate that 11–18 cents per dollar of new business income tax liability was passed through to employee earnings. I find no change in employment in response to the tax increase. The responses were generally associated with lower earnings growth, not changes in workforce composition. The burden was not borne equally by all workers. Essentially all of the workers’ share of the burden was borne by those in the top 30% of the earnings distribution, highlighting that the ultimate distributional effects of the policy depend not only on the share of the burden borne by workers but on the shares borne by different types of workers. Furthermore, since the owners bore the majority of the burden, the policy resulted in a decrease in after-tax earnings inequality between top-bracket owners and lower-bracket workers. I discuss the implications of the findings for the mediating labor market mechanisms and for welfare analyses of income taxation using a marginal value of public funds framework.
The racial wealth gap is the largest of the economic disparities between Black and white Americans, with a white-to-Black per capita wealth ratio of 6 to 1. It is also among the most persistent. In this article, we construct the first continuous series on white-to-Black per capita wealth ratios from 1860 to 2020, drawing on historical census data, early state tax records, and historical waves of the Survey of Consumer Finances, among other sources. Incorporating these data into a parsimonious model of wealth accumulation for each racial group, we document the role played by initial conditions, income growth, savings behavior, and capital returns in the evolution of the gap. Given vastly different starting conditions under slavery, racial wealth convergence would remain a distant scenario, even if wealth-accumulating conditions had been equal across the two groups since Emancipation. Relative to this equal-conditions benchmark, we find that observed convergence has followed an even slower path over the past 150 years, with convergence stalling after 1950. Since the 1980s, the wealth gap has widened again as capital gains have predominantly benefited white households, and convergence via income growth and savings has come to a halt.
While hypothesis testing is a highly formalized activity, hypothesis generation remains largely informal. We propose a systematic procedure to generate novel hypotheses about human behavior, which uses the capacity of machine learning algorithms to notice patterns people might not. We illustrate the procedure with a concrete application: judge decisions about whom to jail. We begin with a striking fact: the defendant’s face alone matters greatly for the judge’s jailing decision. In fact, an algorithm given only the pixels in the defendant’s mug shot accounts for up to half of the predictable variation. We develop a procedure that allows human subjects to interact with this black-box algorithm to produce hypotheses about what in the face influences judge decisions. The procedure generates hypotheses that are both interpretable and novel: they are not explained by demographics (e.g., race) or existing psychology research, nor are they already known (even if tacitly) to people or experts. Though these results are specific, our procedure is general. It provides a way to produce novel, interpretable hypotheses from any high-dimensional data set (e.g., cell phones, satellites, online behavior, news headlines, corporate filings, and high-frequency time series). A central tenet of our article is that hypothesis generation is a valuable activity, and we hope this encourages future work in this largely “prescientific” stage of science.
When studying an outcome Y that is weakly positive but can equal zero (e.g., earnings), researchers frequently estimate an average treatment effect (ATE) for a “log-like” transformation that behaves like log (Y) for large Y but is defined at zero (e.g., log (1 + Y), |$\operatorname{arcsinh}(Y)$|⁠). We argue that ATEs for log-like transformations should not be interpreted as approximating percentage effects, since unlike a percentage, they depend on the units of the outcome. In fact, we show that if the treatment affects the extensive margin, one can obtain a treatment effect of any magnitude simply by rescaling the units of Y before taking the log-like transformation. This arbitrary unit dependence arises because an individual-level percentage effect is not well-defined for individuals whose outcome changes from zero to nonzero when receiving treatment, and the units of the outcome implicitly determine how much weight the ATE for a log-like transformation places on the extensive margin. We further establish a trilemma: when the outcome can equal zero, there is no treatment effect parameter that is an average of individual-level treatment effects, unit invariant, and point identified. We discuss several alternative approaches that may be sensible in settings with an intensive and extensive margin, including (i) expressing the ATE in levels as a percentage (e.g., using Poisson regression), (ii) explicitly calibrating the value placed on the intensive and extensive margins, and (iii) estimating separate effects for the two margins (e.g., using Lee bounds). We illustrate these approaches in three empirical applications.
We link every police report in Finland to administrative data to identify violence between colleagues and the economic consequences for victims, perpetrators, and firms. This new approach to observe when one colleague attacks another overcomes previous data constraints limiting evidence on this phenomenon to self-reported surveys that do not identify perpetrators. We document large, persistent labor market effects of between-colleague violence on victims and perpetrators. Male perpetrators experience substantially weaker consequences after attacking female colleagues. Perpetrators’ relative economic power in male-female violence partly explains this asymmetry. Turning to broader implications for firm recruitment and retention, we find that male-female violence causes a decline in the proportion of women at the firm, both because fewer new women are hired and current female employees leave. Management plays a key role in mediating the effects on the wider workforce. Only male-managed firms lose women. Female-managed firms exhibit a key difference relative to male-managed firms: male perpetrators are less likely to remain employed after attacking their female colleagues.
This article examines the trade-offs of monitoring for wasteful public spending. By penalizing unnecessary spending, monitoring improves the quality of public expenditure and incentivizes firms to invest in compliance technology. I study a large Medicare program that monitored for unnecessary health care spending and consider its effect on government savings, provider behavior, and patient health. Every dollar Medicare spent on monitoring generated $24–$29 in government savings. The majority of savings stem from the deterrence of future care, rather than reclaimed payments from prior care. I do not find evidence that the health of the marginal patient is harmed, indicating that monitoring primarily deters low-value care. Monitoring does increase provider administrative costs, but these costs are mostly incurred up-front and include investments in technology to assess the medical necessity of care.
Does a school district that expands school choice provide better outcomes for students than a neighborhood-based assignment system? This article studies the Zones of Choice (ZOC) program, a school choice initiative of the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) that created small high school markets in some neighborhoods but left attendance zone boundaries in place throughout the rest of the district. We study market-level effects of choice on student achievement and college enrollment using a difference-in-differences design. Student outcomes in ZOC markets increased markedly, narrowing achievement and college enrollment gaps between ZOC neighborhoods and the rest of the district. The effects of ZOC are larger for schools exposed to more competition, supporting the notion that competition is a key channel. Demand estimates suggest families place substantial weight on schools’ academic quality, providing schools with competition-induced incentives to improve their effectiveness. The evidence demonstrates that public school choice programs have the potential to improve school quality and reduce neighborhood-based disparities in educational opportunity.
Studies of human memory indicate that features of an event evoke memories of prior associated contextual states, which in turn become associated with the current event’s features. This retrieved-context mechanism allows the remote past to influence the present, even as agents gradually update their beliefs about their environment. We apply a version of retrieved-context theory, drawn from the literature on human memory, to explain three types of evidence in the financial economics literature: the role of early life experience in shaping investment choices, occurrence of financial crises, and the effect of fear on asset allocation. These applications suggest a recasting of neoclassical rational expectations in terms of beliefs as governed by principles of human memory.
Firms facing complex objectives often decompose the problems they face, delegating different parts of the decision to distinct subunits. Using comprehensive data and internal models from a large U.S. airline, we establish that airline pricing is not well approximated by a model of the firm as a unitary decision maker. We show that observed prices, however, can be rationalized by accounting for organizational structure and for the decisions by departments that are tasked with supplying inputs to the observed pricing heuristic. Simulating the prices the firm would charge if it were a rational, unitary decision maker results in lower welfare than we estimate under observed practices. Finally, we discuss why counterfactual estimates of welfare and market power may be biased if prices are set through decomposition, but we instead assume that they are set by unitary decision makers.
We construct measures of industry performance and welfare in the U.S. automobile market from 1980 to 2018. We estimate a demand model using product-level data on market shares, prices, and attributes, and consumer-level data on demographics, purchases, and stated second choices. We estimate marginal costs assuming Nash-Bertrand pricing. We relate trends in consumer welfare and markups to trends in market structure and the composition of products. Although real prices rose, we find that markups decreased substantially, and the fraction of total surplus accruing to consumers increased. Consumer welfare increased over time due to improved product quality and improved production technology.
The article develops a model of nonmarket allocation of resources such as the awarding of grants to meritorious projects, honors to outstanding students, or journal slots to quality publications. On the supply side, the available budget of grants is awarded to applicants who are evaluated most favorably according to the noisy information available to reviewers. On the demand side, stronger candidates are more likely to obtain grants and thus self-select into applying, given that applications are costly. We establish that if evaluation is perfect, grading on a curve inefficiently discourages even the very best candidates from applying. More generally, when the budget is insufficient to award grants to all applicants, the equilibrium unravels if information is symmetric enough—the paradox of relative evaluation. Leveraging a technique based on the quantile function pioneered by Lehmann, we characterize a broad set of nonmarket allocation rules under which an increase in evaluation noise in a field (or course) raises equilibrium applications in that field, and reduces applications in all other fields. We empirically confirm these comparative statics by exploiting a change in the rule for apportioning the total budget to applications in different fields at the European Research Council, showing that a 1 standard deviation increase in own evaluation noise leads to a 0.4 standard deviation increase in the number of applications and budget share. Moreover, we derive insights for the design of evaluation institutions, particularly regarding the endogenous choice of noise by fields or courses and the optimal aggregation of fields into panels.
We study how Americans respond to idiosyncratic and exogenous changes in household wealth and unearned income. Our analyses combine administrative data on U.S. lottery winners with an event study design. We first examine individual and household earnings responses to these windfall gains, finding significant and sizable wealth and income effects. On average, an extra |${\$}$|1 of unearned income in a given period reduces household labor earnings by about 50 cents, decreases total labor taxes by 10 cents, and increases consumption expenditure by 60 cents. These effects are heterogeneous across the income distribution, with households in higher quartiles of the income distribution reducing their earnings by a larger amount. Next we examine margins of adjustment other than earnings and, in the course of doing so, address a number of important economic questions about how additional wealth or unearned income affect retirement decisions and labor market dynamics, family formation and dissolution, entrepreneurship and self-employment, and geographic mobility and neighborhood choice. Last, we carefully compare our findings to those reported in existing lottery studies. This comparison reveals that existing U.S. studies substantially underestimate wealth and income effects because they use measures that understate the earnings responses and overstate the after-tax wealth changes associated with lottery wins.
We answer three core questions about the hypothesized role of newly emerging job categories (“new work”) in counterbalancing the erosive effect of task-displacing automation on labor demand: what is the substantive content of new work, where does it come from, and what effect does it have on labor demand? We construct a novel database spanning eight decades of new job titles linked to U.S. Census microdata and to patent-based measures of occupations’ exposure to labor-augmenting and labor-automating innovations. The majority of current employment is in new job specialties introduced since 1940, but the locus of new-work creation has shifted from middle-paid production and clerical occupations over 1940–1980 to high-paid professional occupations and secondarily to low-paid services since 1980. New work emerges in response to technological innovations that complement the outputs of occupations and demand shocks that raise occupational demand. Innovations that automate tasks or reduce occupational demand slow new-work emergence. Although the flow of augmentation and automation innovations is positively correlated across occupations, the former boosts occupational labor demand while the latter depresses it. The demand-eroding effects of automation innovations have intensified in the past four decades while the demand-increasing effects of augmentation innovations have not.
The Neolithic revolution saw the independent development of agriculture among at least seven unconnected hunter-gatherer populations. I propose that the rapid spread of agricultural techniques resulted from increased climatic seasonality causing hunter-gatherers to adopt a sedentary lifestyle and store food for the season of scarcity. Their newfound sedentary lifestyle and storage habits facilitated the invention of agriculture. I present a model and support it with global climate data and Neolithic adoption dates, showing that greater seasonality increased the likelihood of agriculture’s invention and its speed of adoption by neighbors. This study suggests that seasonality patterns played a dominant role in determining our species’ transition to farming.
Standard labor market models assume that workers hold accurate beliefs about the external wage distribution, and hence their outside options with other employers. We test this assumption by comparing German workers’ beliefs about outside options with objective benchmarks. First, we find that workers wrongly anchor their beliefs about outside options on their current wage: workers that would experience a 10% wage change if switching to their outside option only expect a 1% change. Second, workers in low-paying firms underestimate wages elsewhere. Third, in response to information about the wages of similar workers, respondents correct their beliefs about their outside options and change their job search and wage negotiation intentions. Finally, we analyze the consequences of anchoring in a simple equilibrium model. In the model, anchored beliefs keep overly pessimistic workers stuck in low-wage jobs, which gives rise to monopsony power and labor market segmentation.
The gender ask gap measures the extent to which women ask for lower salaries than comparable men. This article studies its role in generating wage inequality, using novel data from an online recruitment platform for full-time engineering jobs: Hired.com. To use the platform, job candidates must post an ask salary, stating how much they want to make in their next job. Firms then apply to candidates by offering them a bid salary, solely based on the candidate’s résumé and ask salary. If the candidate is hired, a final salary is recorded. After adjusting for résumé characteristics, the ask gap is 2.9%, the bid gap is 2.2%, and the final offer gap is 1.4%. Further controlling for the ask salary explains the entirety of the residual gender gaps in bid and final salaries. To further provide evidence of the causal effect of the ask salary on the bid salary, I exploit an unanticipated change in how candidates were prompted to provide their ask. For some candidates in mid-2018, the answer box used to solicit the ask salary was changed from an empty field to an entry prefilled with the median bid salary for similar candidates. I find that this change drove the ask, bid, and final offer gaps to zero. In addition, women did not receive fewer bids or final offers than men did due to the change, suggesting they faced little penalty for demanding comparable wages.
We develop empirical tools for studying discrimination in multiphase systems and apply them to the setting of foster care placement by child protective services. Leveraging the quasi-random assignment of two sets of decision-makers—initial hotline call screeners and subsequent investigators—we study how unwarranted racial disparities arise and propagate through this system. Using a sample of over 200,000 maltreatment allegations, we find that calls involving Black children are 55% more likely to result in foster care placement than calls involving white children with the same potential for future maltreatment in the home. Call screeners account for up to 19% of this unwarranted disparity, with the remainder due to investigators. Unwarranted disparity is concentrated in cases with potential for future maltreatment, suggesting that white children may be harmed by “underplacement” in high-risk situations.
Decision makers, such as doctors, judges, and managers, make consequential choices based on predictions of unknown outcomes. Do these decision makers make systematic prediction mistakes based on the available information? If so, in what ways are their predictions systematically biased? In this article, I characterize conditions under which systematic prediction mistakes can be identified in empirical settings such as hiring, medical diagnosis, and pretrial release. I derive a statistical test for whether the decision maker makes systematic prediction mistakes under these assumptions and provide methods for estimating the ways the decision maker’s predictions are systematically biased. I analyze the pretrial release decisions of judges in New York City, estimating that at least 20% of judges make systematic prediction mistakes about misconduct risk given defendant characteristics. Motivated by this analysis, I estimate the effects of replacing judges with algorithmic decision rules and find that replacing judges with algorithms where systematic prediction mistakes occur dominates the status quo.
A new form of secured lending using “digital collateral” has recently emerged, most prominently in low- and middle-income countries. Digital collateral relies on lockout technology, which allows the lender to temporarily disable the flow value of the collateral to the borrower without physically repossessing it. We explore this new form of credit in a model and a field experiment using school-fee loans digitally secured with a solar home system. Securing a loan with digital collateral drastically reduced default rates (by 19 percentage points) and increased the lender’s rate of return (by 49 percentage points). Using a variant of the Karlan and Zinman (2009) methodology, we decompose the total effect on repayment and find that roughly two-thirds is attributable to moral hazard, and one-third to adverse selection. In addition, access to digitally secured school-fee loans significantly increased school enrollment and school-related expenditures without detrimental effects on households’ balance sheets.
In 2013, the Dutch government mandated that new conforming mortgages must fully amortize. Within a difference-in-differences design, we estimate that the marginal wealth accumulation from amortization is close to one, even five years later. Households purchasing after the reform primarily cut consumption and leisure over other savings, leading to a rise in wealth. This holds if we use life events to instrument for the timing of home purchase. Estimates are similar for seemingly unconstrained households and movers, suggesting a broad applicability of our results. Consistent with a simple model, we find lower estimates for households that appear less financially sophisticated or willing to adjust short-term consumption. Mortgage amortization schedules are among the largest savings plans in the world, and our results highlight their critical importance for household wealth building and macroprudential policies.
In the 1960s, two landmark statutes—the Equal Pay and Civil Rights Acts—targeted the long-standing practice of employment discrimination against U.S. women. For the next 15 years, the gender gap in median earnings among full-time, full-year workers changed little, leading many scholars to conclude that the legislation was ineffectual. This article revisits this conclusion using two research designs, which leverage (i) cross-state variation in preexisting state equal pay laws and (ii) variation in the 1960 gender gap across occupation-industry-state-group cells to capture differences in the legislation's incidence. Both designs suggest that federal antidiscrimination legislation led to striking gains in women's relative wages, which were concentrated among below-median wage earners. These wage gains offset preexisting labor market forces, which worked to depress women's relative pay growth, resulting in the apparent stability of the gender gap at the median and mean in the 1960s and 1970s. The data show little evidence of short-term changes in women's employment but suggest that firms reduced their hiring and promotion of women in the medium to long term. The historical record points to the key role of the Equal Pay Act in driving these changes.
In the early 1900s, telephone operation was among the most common jobs for American women, and telephone operators were ubiquitous. Between 1920 and 1940, AT&T undertook one of the largest automation investments in modern history, replacing operators with mechanical switching technology in over half of the U.S. telephone network. Using variation across U.S. cities in the timing of adoption, we study how this wave of automation affected the labor market for young women. Although automation eliminated most of these jobs, it did not reduce future cohorts’ overall employment: the decline in operators was counteracted by employment growth in middle-skill clerical jobs and lower-skill service jobs, including new categories of work. Using a new genealogy-based census-linking method, we show that incumbent telephone operators were most affected, and a decade later more likely to be in lower-paying occupations or no longer working.
Frictions that impede the mobility of workers across occupations and space are a prominent feature of developing countries. We disentangle the role of insecure property rights from other labor-mobility frictions for the reallocation of labor from agriculture to nonagriculture and from rural to urban areas. We combine rich household and individual-level panel data from China and an equilibrium quantitative framework featuring sorting of workers across locations and occupations. We explicitly model the farming household and the endogenous decisions of who operates the family farm and who potentially migrates, capturing an additional channel of selection in the household. We find that land insecurity has substantial negative effects on agricultural productivity and structural change, raising the share of rural households operating farms by over 40 percentage points and depressing agricultural productivity by more than 20%. Comparatively, these quantitative effects are as large as those from all residual labor-mobility frictions. We measure a sharp reduction in overall labor-mobility barriers over 2004–2018 in the Chinese economy, all accounted for by improved land security, consistent with reforms covering rural land in China during the period. JEL Codes: O11, O14, O4, E02, Q1.
Many consumers care about climate change and other externalities associated with their purchases. We analyze the behavior and market effects of such “socially responsible consumers” in three parts. First, we develop a flexible theoretical framework to study competitive equilibria with rational consequentialist consumers. In violation of price taking, equilibrium feedback nontrivially dampens the impact of a person’s consumption on aggregate consumption, undermining the motive to mitigate. This leads to a new type of market failure, where even consumers who fully “internalize the externality” overconsume externality-generating goods. At the same time, socially responsible consumers change the relative effectiveness of taxes, caps, and other policies in lowering the externality. Second, since consumer beliefs about and preferences over their market impacts play a crucial role in our framework, we investigate them empirically via a tailored survey. Consistent with our model, consumers are often consequentialist, and many believe that they have a dampened impact on aggregate consumption. Inconsistent with our model, however, we also find many respondents who expect to have a one-to-one impact on aggregate consumption. Third, therefore, we analyze how such “naive” consumers modify our theoretical conclusions. They consume less than rational consumers in a single-good economy, but may consume more in a multigood economy with cross-market spillovers. A mix of naive and rational consumers may yield the worst outcomes.
What happens when patients suddenly stop their medications? We study the health consequences of drug interruptions caused by large, abrupt, and arbitrary changes in price. Medicare’s prescription drug benefit as-if-randomly assigns 65-year-olds a drug budget as a function of their birth month, beyond which out-of-pocket costs suddenly increase. Those facing smaller budgets consume fewer drugs and die more: mortality increases 0.0164 percentage points per month (13.9%) for each $100 per month budget decrease (24.4%). This estimate is robust to a range of falsification checks and lies in the 97.8th percentile of 544 placebo estimates from similar populations that lack the same idiosyncratic budget policy. Several facts help make sense of this large effect. First, patients stop taking drugs that are both high value and suspected to cause life-threatening withdrawal syndromes when stopped. Second, using machine learning, we identify patients at the highest risk of drug-preventable adverse events. Contrary to the predictions of standard economic models, high-risk patients (e.g., those most likely to have a heart attack) cut back more than low-risk patients on exactly those drugs that would benefit them the most (e.g., statins). Finally, patients appear unaware of these risks. In a survey of 65-year-olds, only one-third believe that stopping their drugs for up to a month could have any serious consequences. We conclude that far from curbing waste, cost sharing is itself highly inefficient, resulting in missed opportunities to buy health at very low cost ($11,321 per life-year).
This article explores the use of social signaling as a policy tool to sustainably affect childhood immunization. In a 26-month field experiment with public clinics in Sierra Leone, I introduce a verifiable signal—in the form of color-coded bracelets—given to children upon timely completion of the first four or all five required vaccinations. Signals increase parents’ belief in the visibility of their actions and knowledge of other children’s vaccine status. The impact of signals varies significantly with the cost and perceived benefits of the action. There are no discernible effects on timely and complete immunization when the signal is linked to an easier-to-complete vaccine with low perceived benefits, and large positive effects when the signal is linked to a costlier-to-achieve vaccine with high perceived benefits. Parents adjust their behavior nine months before realizing the social image benefit, demonstrating the motivational strength of signaling incentives. Of substantive policy importance, bracelets increase full immunization at one year of age by 9 percentage points, with impacts persisting at two years of age. At a marginal cost of US$24.7 per fully immunized child, social signals can be as cost-effective as financial or in-kind incentives.
Domestic abuse encompasses a range of damaging behaviors beyond physical violence, including economic and emotional abuse. We analyze the impact of cohabiting with an abusive partner on victims’ economic outcomes. In so doing, we highlight the systematic role of economic suppression in such relationships. Using Finnish administrative data and a matched-control event-study design, along with a within-individual comparison of outcomes across relationships, we document three new facts. First, women who begin relationships with (eventually) physically abusive men suffer large and significant earnings and employment falls immediately upon cohabiting with the abusive partner. Second, the decline in economic outcomes is non-monotonic in women’s pre-cohabitation outside options. Third, men who are violent against women in any capacity impose economic costs on all their female partners, even those who do not report physical violence. To rationalize these findings, we develop a new dynamic model of abusive relationships where women do not perfectly observe their partner’s type, and abusive men have an incentive to use economic suppression to sabotage women’s outside options and their ability to later exit the relationship.
For many decisions, we encounter relevant information over the course of days, months, or years. We consume such information in various forms, including stories (qualitative content about individual instances) and statistics (quantitative data about collections of observations). This article proposes that information type—story versus statistic—shapes selective memory. In controlled experiments, we document a pronounced story-statistic gap in memory: the average impact of statistics on beliefs fades by 73% over the course of a day, but the impact of a story fades by only 32%. Guided by a model of selective memory, we disentangle different mechanisms and document that similarity relationships drive this gap. Recall of a story increases when its qualitative content is more similar to a memory prompt. Irrelevant information in memory that is similar to the prompt, on the other hand, competes for retrieval with relevant information, impeding successful recall.
We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time, in particular over the monetary policy cycle. Forecasters update their perceptions about the Fed’s policy rule in response to monetary policy actions, measured by high-frequency interest rate surprises, suggesting that they have imperfect information about the rule. Monetary policy perceptions matter for monetary transmission, as they affect the sensitivity of interest rates to macroeconomic news, term premia in long-term bonds, and the response of the stock market to monetary policy surprises. A simple learning model with forecaster heterogeneity and incomplete information about the policy rule motivates and explains our empirical findings.
This article studies the long-run effects of slavery and restrictive Jim Crow institutions on Black Americans’ economic outcomes. We track individual-level census records of each Black family from 1850 to 1940 and extend our analysis to neighborhood-level outcomes in 2000 and surname-based outcomes in 2023. We show that Black families whose ancestors were enslaved until the Civil War have considerably lower education, income, and wealth than Black families whose ancestors were free before the Civil War. The disparities between the two groups have persisted substantially because most families enslaved until the Civil War lived in states with strict Jim Crow regimes after slavery ended. In a regression discontinuity design based on ancestors’ enslavement locations, we show that Jim Crow institutions sharply reduced Black families’ economic progress in the long run.
Anti-scientific attitudes can impose substantial costs on societies. Can schools be an important agent in mitigating the propagation of such attitudes? This article investigates the effect of the content of science education on anti-scientific attitudes, knowledge, and choices. The analysis exploits staggered reforms that reduce or expand the coverage of evolution theory in U.S. state science education standards. I compare adjacent student cohorts in models with state and cohort fixed effects. There are three main results. First, expanded evolution coverage increases students’ knowledge about evolution. Second, the reforms translate into greater evolution belief in adulthood, but do not crowd out religiosity or affect political attitudes. Third, the reforms affect high-stakes life decisions, namely, the probability of working in life sciences.
Forward-looking investments determine the resilience of firms’ supply chains. Such investments confer externalities on other firms in the production network. We compare the equilibrium and optimal allocations in a general equilibrium model with an arbitrary number of vertical production tiers. Our model features endogenous investments in protective capabilities, endogenous formation of supply links, and sequential bargaining over quantities and payments between firms in successive tiers. We derive policies that implement the first-best allocation, allowing for subsidies to input purchases, network formation, and investments in protective capabilities. The first-best policies depend only on production function parameters of the pertinent tier. When subsidies to transactions are infeasible, the second-best subsidies for resilience depend on production function parameters throughout the network, and subsidies are larger upstream than downstream whenever the bargaining weights of buyers are nonincreasing along the chain.
I investigate the consequences of firms’ joint import and export decisions in the context of large devaluations. I provide empirical evidence that large devaluations are characterized by an increase in the aggregate share of imported inputs in total input spending and by reallocation of resources toward import-intensive firms, contrary to what standard quantitative trade models predict. These facts are explained by the expansion of exporters, which are intense importers. I develop a model where firms globally decide their import and export strategies and discipline it to match salient features of the Mexican micro data. After a devaluation, the model reproduces the pattern of low aggregate substitution and firm reallocation observed in the data. Compared with a benchmark without global firms, the model predicts higher growth of total exports and imports and a smaller reduction in the trade deficit.
Tax collection with limited enforcement capacity may be consistent with both high- and low-delinquency regimes: high delinquency reduces the effectiveness of threats, thereby reinforcing high delinquency. We explore the practical challenges of unraveling the high-delinquency equilibrium using a mechanism design insight known as divide-and-conquer. Our preferred mechanism takes the form of prioritized iterative enforcement (PIE). Taxpayers are ranked using the ratio of expected collection to capacity use. Collection threats are issued in small batches to ensure high credibility and induce high compliance. Following repayments, liberated capacity is used to issue the next round of threats. In collaboration with a district of Lima, we experimentally assess PIE in a sample of 13,432 property taxpayers. The data validate and refine our theoretical framework. A semi-structural model suggests that keeping collection actions fixed, PIE would increase tax revenue by roughly 10%.
We estimate the equilibrium effects of a public school grant program administered through school councils in Pakistani villages with multiple public and private schools and clearly defined catchment boundaries. The program was randomized at the village level, allowing us to estimate its causal impact on the market. Four years after the start of the program, test scores were 0.2 standard deviations higher in public schools. We find evidence of an education multiplier: test scores in private schools were also 0.2 standard deviations higher in treated markets. Consistent with standard models of product differentiation, the education multiplier is greater for those private schools that faced a greater threat to their market power. Accounting for private sector responses increases the program’s cost-effectiveness by 85% and affects how a policy maker would target spending. Given that markets with several public and private schools are now pervasive in low- and middle-income countries, prudent policy requires us to account for private sector responses to public policy, both in policies’ design and evaluation.
We study the lifetime effects of the first and largest American youth employment and training program in the United States—the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC), 1933–1942. We match newly digitized enrollee records to census, World War II enlistment, Social Security, and death records. We find that longer service in the CCC led to improvements in height, health status, longevity, geographic mobility, and lifetime earnings but did not improve short-term labor market outcomes, including employment and wages. We address potential selection into CCC duration using several approaches, most importantly two newly developed control-function approaches that leverage unbiased estimates of the short-term effects of a randomized controlled trial of Job Corps (the modern version of the CCC). Our findings suggest that short- and medium-term evaluations of employment programs underestimate effects because they fail to capture lifetime effects and often ignore or underestimate health and longevity benefits that increase in magnitude at later ages.
We estimate the returns to IRS audits of taxpayers across the income distribution. We find an additional $1 spent auditing taxpayers above the 90th income percentile yields more than $12 in revenue, while audits of below-median income taxpayers yield $5. We construct our estimates by drawing from comprehensive internal accounting information and audit-level enforcement logs. We begin by estimating the average initial return to all audits of U.S. taxpayers filing in tax years 2010–2014. On average, $1 in audit spending initially raises $2.17 in revenue. Audits of high-income taxpayers are more costly, but the additional revenue raised more than offsets the costs. Audits of the 99–99.9th percentile have a 3.2:1 initial return; audits of the top 0.1% return 6.3:1. We then exploit the 40% audit reduction between tax years 2010 and 2014 to examine the returns to marginal audits. We find they exceed the returns to average audits. Revenues remain relatively unchanged, but marginal costs fall below average costs due to economies of scale. Next, we use randomly selected audits to examine the effect of an initial audit on future revenue. This individual deterrence effect produces at least three times more revenue than the initial audit. Deterrence effects are relatively consistent across the income distribution. This results in the 12:1 return above the 90th percentile. We conclude by estimating the welfare consequences of audits using the MVPF framework and comparing audits to other revenue-raising policies. We find that audits raise revenue at lower welfare cost.
Tax authorities around the world rely on audits to detect underreported tax liabilities and to verify that taxpayers qualify for the benefits they claim. We study differences in Internal Revenue Service audit rates between Black and non-Black taxpayers. Because neither we nor the IRS observe taxpayer race, we propose and use a novel partial identification strategy to estimate these differences. Despite race-blind audit selection, we find that Black taxpayers are audited at 2.9 to 4.7 times the rate of non-Black taxpayers. An important driver of the disparity is differing audit rates by race among taxpayers claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC). Using counterfactual audit selection models to explore why the disparity arises, we find that maximizing the detection of underreported taxes would not lead to Black EITC claimants being audited at higher rates. Rather, the audit disparity among EITC claimants stems largely from a policy decision to prioritize detecting overclaims of refundable credits over other forms of noncompliance. Modifying the audit selection algorithm to target total underreported taxes while holding fixed the number of audited EITC claimants would reduce the share of audited taxpayers who are Black and would lead to more audits focused on accurate reporting of business income and deductions, fewer audits focused on the eligibility of claimed dependents, higher per audit costs, and more detected noncompliance.
How does inventors’ migration affect international talent allocation, knowledge diffusion, and productivity growth? To answer this question, I build a novel two-country innovation-led endogenous growth model, where heterogeneous inventors produce innovations, learn from others, and make dynamic migration and return decisions. Migrants interact with individuals at origin and destination, diffusing knowledge within and across countries. To quantify this framework, I construct a micro-level data set of migrant inventors on the U.S.-EU corridor from patent data and document that (i) gross migration is asymmetric, with brain drain (net emigration) from the EU to the United States; (ii) migrants increase their patenting by 33% a year after migration; (iii) migrants continue working with inventors at origin after moving, although less frequently; (iv) migrants’ productivity gains spill over to their collaborators at origin, who increase patenting by 16% a year when a co-inventor emigrates. I calibrate the model to match the empirical results and study the effect of innovation and migration policy. A tax cut for foreigners and return migrants in the EU that eliminates the brain drain increases EU innovation but lowers U.S. innovation and knowledge spillovers. The former effect dominates in the first 25 years, increasing EU productivity growth by 3%, but the latter dominates in the long run, lowering growth by 3%. On the migration policy side, doubling the size of the U.S. H1B visa program increases U.S. and EU growth by 4% in the long run, because it sorts inventors to where they produce more innovations and knowledge spillovers.
We show that the likelihood of a liquidity crunch in wholesale U.S. dollar funding markets depends on levels of reserve balances at the financial institutions that are the most active intermediaries of these markets. Heightened risk of an imminent liquidity crunch is signaled by significant delays in intraday payments to these large financial institutions over the prior two weeks. Our study contributes to the broader dialogue surrounding the Federal Reserve’s ongoing quantitative tightening.
We assess the impact of discrimination on Black individuals’ job networks across the United States using a two-stage field experiment with 400+ fictitious LinkedIn profiles. In the first stage, we vary race via AI-generated images only and find that Black profiles’ connection requests are 13% less likely to be accepted. Based on users’ CVs, we find widespread discrimination across social groups. In the second stage, we exogenously endow Black and white profiles with the same networks and ask connected users for career advice. We find no evidence of direct discrimination in information provision. However, when taking into account differences in the composition and size of networks, Black profiles receive substantially fewer replies. Our findings suggest that gatekeeping is a key driver of Black–white disparities.
When people receive new information, sometimes they revise their beliefs too much, and sometimes too little. We show that a key driver of whether people overinfer or underinfer is the strength of the information. Based on a model in which people know which direction to update in, but not exactly how much to update, we hypothesize that people will overinfer from weak signals and underinfer from strong signals. We then test this hypothesis across four different environments: abstract experiments, a naturalistic experiment, sports betting markets, and financial markets. In each environment, our consistent and robust finding is overinference from weak signals and underinference from strong signals. Our framework and findings can help harmonize apparently contradictory results from the experimental and empirical literatures.
While there is a vast (and mixed) literature on gender differences in social preferences, little is known about believed gender differences in social preferences. Using data from 15 studies and 8,979 individuals, we find that women are believed to be more generous and more equality-oriented than men. This believed gender gap is robust across a wide range of contexts that vary in terms of strategic considerations, selfish motives, fairness concepts, and payoffs. Yet this believed gender gap is largely inaccurate. Consistent with models of associative memory, specifically the role of similarity and interference, the believed gender gap is correlated with recalled prior life experiences from similar contexts and significantly affected by an experience that may interfere with the recall process of prior memories, even though this interfering experience should not affect the beliefs of perfect-memory Bayesians. Application studies further reveal that believed gender differences extend to the household (i.e., beliefs about contributions to the home, family, and upbringing of children), the workplace (i.e., beliefs about equal pay), and policy views (i.e., beliefs about redistribution, equal access to education, healthcare, and affordable housing).
This article studies the long-run effects of government-led construction of manufacturing plants on the regions where they were built and on individuals from those regions. Specifically, we examine publicly financed plants built in dispersed locations outside of major urban centers for security reasons during the U.S. industrial mobilization for World War II. Wartime plant construction had large and persistent effects on local development, characterized by an expansion of relatively high-wage manufacturing employment throughout the postwar era. These benefits were shared by incumbent residents; we find men born before World War II in counties where plants were built earned $1,200 (in 2020 dollars) or 2.5% more per year in adulthood relative to those born in counterfactual comparison regions, with larger benefits accruing to children of lower-income parents. The balance of evidence suggests that these individuals benefited primarily from the local expansion of higher-wage jobs to which they had access as adults, rather than because of developmental effects from exposure to better environments during childhood.
From 1944 to 1952, largely agrarian Finland had to export, on average, 4% of its yearly GDP in industrial products to the Soviet Union as war reparations. To meet the reparation demands, the Finnish state needed to provide extensive temporary support to Soviet-assigned industries with insufficient production capacity. This article documents the long-term effects of this extensive and temporary industrial policy on industrial and local development and on individual outcomes. Using newly digitized data sets, I show in a difference-in-differences setup that the short-term nonmarket production persistently and significantly increased the employment and production of the manufacturing industries exposed to the policy. These industries plausibly benefited from large initial investments and exposure to export markets associated with the war reparations. The episode further led to local development and structural change, as the more exposed regions became persistently more industrialized. I substantiate these within-Finland results with triple-difference setups using comparable Norwegian data. I use Finnish administrative data to study the long-term individual effects of the episode. Tracking individuals over 30 years, I show that the initial state investments and the persistent change in the local industrial structure increased long-term incomes, led to more educational attainment, and promoted the upward mobility of children and young adults in the more exposed regions before the war reparations period. The observed effects are driven by the more advanced heavy industry, which received the majority of state assistance.
In all OECD countries, mandatory notice (MN) policies require firms to inform workers in advance of a layoff. In our theoretical framework, MN helps workers avoid unemployment and find better jobs by encouraging them to search for a new job while still employed, thereby increasing future production. The magnitude of this production gain depends on the relative effectiveness of search while employed versus unemployed. But on-the-job search and diminished work incentives reduce current production. If future gains outweigh current production losses, longer advance notice improves production efficiency. If not, Coasian bargaining predicts that firms offer a larger severance instead of longer notice. With bargaining, the sole efficiency loss of MN is due to delayed separations of unproductive job matches. We test these predictions using novel Swedish administrative data on layoff notifications. Workers eligible for extended MN receive longer notice and larger severance, resulting in less exposure to nonemployment spells and higher-paying jobs. These favorable labor market outcomes are solely due to longer notice; in contrast, larger severance delays job finding and has no impact on wages. We also show that advance notice replaces job search while unemployed with more effective search while employed. On the production side, we document a productivity drop among notified workers and estimate a production loss due to delayed separations. Using our estimates of production gains and losses to evaluate the overall production efficiency, we conclude that the gains of MN seem to outweigh the losses.
Workers who are worried about their personal finances may find it hard to focus at work. If so, reducing financial concerns could increase productivity. We test this hypothesis in a sample of low-income Indian piece-rate manufacturing workers. We stagger when wages are paid out: some workers are paid earlier and receive a cash infusion while others remain liquidity constrained. The cash infusion leads workers to reduce their financial concerns by immediately paying off debts and buying household essentials. Subsequently, they become more productive at work: their output increases by 7% (0.11 std. dev.), and they make fewer costly, unintentional mistakes. Workers with more cash on hand thus not only work faster but also more attentively, suggesting improved cognition. These effects are concentrated among more financially constrained workers. We argue that mechanisms such as gift exchange or nutrition cannot account for our results. Instead, our findings suggest that financial strain, at least partly through psychological channels, has the potential to reduce earnings exactly when money is most needed.
We study the effect of monetary and fiscal policy in a heterogeneous-agent model where households have present-biased time preferences and naive beliefs. The model features a liquid asset and illiquid home equity, which households can use as collateral for borrowing. Because present bias substantially increases households’ marginal propensity to consume (MPC), present bias increases the effect of fiscal policy. Present bias also amplifies the effect of monetary policy, but at the same time, slows down the speed of monetary transmission. Interest rate cuts incentivize households to conduct cash-out refinances, which become targeted liquidity injections to high-MPC households. Present bias also introduces a motive for households to procrastinate refinancing their mortgages, which slows down the speed with which this monetary channel operates.
What causes adverse policing outcomes, such as excessive uses of force and unnecessary arrests? Prevailing explanations focus on problematic officers or deficient regulations and oversight. We introduce an overlooked perspective. We suggest that the cognitive demands inherent in policing can undermine officer decision making. Unless officers are prepared for these demands, they may jump to conclusions too quickly without fully considering alternative ways of seeing a situation. This can lead to adverse policing outcomes. To test this perspective, we created a new training that teaches officers to consider different ways of interpreting the situations they encounter. We evaluated this training using a randomized controlled trial with 2,070 officers from the Chicago Police Department. In a series of lab assessments, we find that treated officers were significantly more likely to consider a wider range of evidence and develop more explanations for subjects’ actions. Critically, we also find that training affected officer performance in the field, leading to reductions in uses of force, discretionary arrests, and arrests of Black civilians. Meanwhile, officer activity levels remained unchanged, and trained officers were less likely to be injured on duty. Our results highlight the value of considering the cognitive aspects of policing and demonstrate the power of using behaviorally informed approaches to improve officer decision making and policing outcomes.
From a new data set, we infer time series of term structures of yields on U.S. federal bonds during the gold standard era from 1791–1933 and use our estimates to reassess historical narratives about how the United States expanded its fiscal capacity. We show that U.S. debt carried a default risk premium until the end of the nineteenth century, when it started being priced as an alternative safe asset to U.K. debt. During the Civil War, investors expected the United States to return to a gold standard so the federal government was able to borrow without facing denomination risk. After the introduction of the National Banking System, the slope of the yield curve switched from down to up and the premium on U.S. debt with maturity less than one year disappeared.
We estimate productivity growth in England from 1250 to 1870. Real wages over this period were heavily influenced by plague-induced swings in the population. Our estimates account for these Malthusian dynamics. We find that productivity growth was zero before 1600. Productivity growth began in 1600—almost a century before the Glorious Revolution. Thus, the onset of productivity growth preceded the bourgeois institutional reforms of seventeenth-century England. We estimate productivity growth of 2% per decade between 1600 and 1800, increasing to 5% per decade between 1810 and 1860. Much of the increase in output growth during the Industrial Revolution is explained by structural change—the falling importance of land in production—rather than faster productivity growth. Stagnant real wages in the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries—Engels’ Pause—is explained by rapid population growth putting downward pressure on real wages. Yet feedback from population growth to real wages is sufficiently weak to permit sustained deviations from the “iron law of wages” prior to the Industrial Revolution.
We study the staggered introduction of a generative AI–based conversational assistant using data from 5,172 customer-support agents. Access to AI assistance increases worker productivity, as measured by issues resolved per hour, by 15% on average, with substantial heterogeneity across workers. The effects vary significantly across different agents. Less experienced and lower-skilled workers improve both the speed and quality of their output, while the most experienced and highest-skilled workers see small gains in speed and small declines in quality. We also find evidence that AI assistance facilitates worker learning and improves English fluency, particularly among international agents. While AI systems improve with more training data, we find that the gains from AI adoption are largest for moderately rare problems, where human agents have less baseline experience but the system still has adequate training data. Finally, we provide evidence that AI assistance improves the experience of work along several dimensions: customers are more polite and less likely to ask to speak to a manager.
Schooling may build human capital not only by teaching academic skills but by expanding the capacity for cognition. We focus specifically on cognitive endurance: the ability to sustain effortful mental activity over a continuous stretch of time. As motivation, we document that globally and in the United States, the poor exhibit cognitive fatigue more quickly than the rich do across field settings; they also attend schools that offer fewer opportunities to practice thinking for continuous stretches. Using a field experiment with 1,600 Indian primary school students, we randomly increase the amount of time students spend in sustained cognitive activity during the school day—using either math problems (mimicking good schooling) or nonacademic games (providing a pure test of our mechanism). Each approach markedly improves cognitive endurance: students show 22% less decline in performance over time when engaged in intellectual activities—listening comprehension, academic problems, or IQ tests. They also exhibit increased attentiveness in the classroom and score higher on psychological measures of sustained attention. Moreover, each treatment improves students’ school performance by 0.09 standard deviations. This indicates that the experience of effortful thinking itself—even when devoid of any subject content—improves general cognitive capacity. Finally, we complement these results with quasi-experimental variation indicating that an additional year of schooling improves cognitive endurance, but only in higher-quality schools. Our findings suggest that schooling disparities may further disadvantage poor children by hampering the development of a core mental capacity.
Market-based environmental regulations are seldom used in low-income countries, where pollution is highest but state capacity is often low. We collaborated with the Gujarat Pollution Control Board (GPCB) to design and experimentally evaluate the world’s first particulate-matter emissions market, which covered industrial plants in a large Indian city. There are three main findings. First, the market functioned well. Treatment plants, randomly assigned to the emissions market, traded permits to become significant net sellers or buyers. After trading, treatment plants held enough permits to cover their emissions 99% of the time, compared with just 66% compliance with standards under the command-and-control status quo. Second, treatment plants reduced pollution emissions, relative to control plants, by 20%–30%. Third, the market reduced abatement costs by an estimated 11%, holding constant emissions. This cost-savings estimate is based on plant-specific marginal cost curves that we estimate from the universe of bids to buy and sell permits in the market. The combination of pollution reductions and low costs imply that the emissions market has mortality benefits that exceed its costs by at least 25 times.
This article examines the impact of denying a wanted abortion on women and children in Colombia using high-quality administrative microdata and credibly exogenous variation in abortion access. Women can seek legal abortions through a tutela, with cases randomly assigned to judges. Female judges are 20 percentage points (32%) less likely to deny abortion cases than are male judges, and we use the judge’s sex as an instrument for abortion denial. Denial of a wanted abortion has both immediate and lasting effects. It increases a woman’s risk of death by 2.5 percentage points within nine months, mainly due to unsafe abortion procedures, and raises the likelihood of carrying the pregnancy to term by 31 percentage points. Tracking outcomes up to 15 years later, we find that women denied an abortion experience more health issues, lower educational attainment, reduced labor force participation, and higher rates of single motherhood, poverty, and reliance on government assistance. Existing children, born before their mother sought an abortion, are less likely to attend school and are more likely to work.
This article investigates how competition to publish first and thereby establish priority affects the quality of scientific research. We begin by developing a model where scientists decide whether and how long to work on a given project. When deciding how long they should let their projects mature, scientists trade off the marginal benefit of higher-quality research against the marginal risk of being preempted. Projects with the highest scientific potential are the most competitive because they induce the most entry. Therefore, the model predicts these projects are also the most rushed and lowest quality. We test the predictions of this model in the field of structural biology using data from the Protein Data Bank (PDB), a repository for structures of large macromolecules. An important feature of the PDB is that it assigns objective measures of scientific quality to each structure. As suggested by the model, we find that structures with higher ex ante potential generate more competition, are completed faster, and are lower quality. Consistent with the model, and with a causal interpretation of our empirical results, these relationships are mitigated when we focus on structures deposited by scientists who—by nature of their employment position—are less focused on publication and priority. We estimate that the costs associated with improving these low-quality structures are between $1.5 and $8.8 billion since the PDB’s founding in 1971.
Two in five Americans have medical debt, nearly half of whom owe at least $2,500. Concerned by this burden, governments and private donors have undertaken large, high-profile efforts to relieve medical debt. We partnered with RIP Medical Debt (now Undue Medical Debt) to conduct two randomized experiments that relieved medical debt with a face value of $169 million for 83,401 people between 2018 and 2020. Our experiments focused on downstream medical debt that had been sold to debt collectors, and one of our experiments straddled an industry-wide pullback in the reporting of medical debt to the credit bureaus, allowing us to estimate the effects of debt relief with and without counterfactual reporting. We track outcomes using credit reports, collections account data, and a multimodal survey. There are three sets of results. First, we find a modest improvement in credit access when there is counterfactual credit reporting, but no impact on credit report outcomes when there is not. Second, we estimate that debt relief causes a moderate but statistically significant reduction in payments of existing medical bills. Third, we find no effects on survey measures of mental and physical health, healthcare utilization, and financial wellness. Taken together, our results indicate that the strong correlations documented in prior research do not translate into causal effects for downstream medical debt relief.
Is government guiding the invisible hand at the top of the labor market? We use new administrative data to measure physicians’ earnings and estimate the influence of health care policies on these earnings, physicians’ labor supply, and the allocation of talent. Combining the administrative registry of U.S. physicians with tax data, Medicare billing records, and survey responses, we find that physicians’ annual earnings average $350,000 and make up 8.6% of national health care spending. Business income makes up one-quarter of earnings and is systematically underreported in survey data. Earnings increase steeply early in the career, and there are major differences across specialties, regions, and firm sizes. The geographic pattern of earnings is unusual compared with other workers. We argue that these patterns reflect policy choices to subsidize demand for physician care, amplified by restrictions on physician entry, especially in certain specialties. Health policy has a major impact on the margin: 25% of physician fee revenue driven by Medicare reimbursements accrues to physicians personally. Physicians earn 8% of public money spent on insurance expansion. These policies in turn affect the type and quantity of medical care physicians supply, retirement timing, and the allocation of talent across specialties.
We identify phrases associated with novel technologies using textual analysis of patents, job postings, and earnings calls, enabling us to identify four stylized facts on the diffusion of jobs relating to new technologies. First, the development of economically impactful new technologies is geographically highly concentrated, more so even than overall patenting: 56% of the most economically impactful technologies come from just two U.S. locations, Silicon Valley and the Northeast Corridor. Second, as the technologies mature and the number of related jobs grows, hiring spreads geographically. This process is very slow, taking around 50 years to disperse fully. Third, while initial hiring in new technologies is highly skill-biased, over time the mean skill level in new positions declines, drawing in an increasing number of lower-skilled workers. Finally, the geographic spread of hiring is slowest for higher-skilled positions, with the locations where new technologies were pioneered remaining the focus for the technology's high-skill jobs for decades.
A long-standing and influential view in U.S. correctional policy is that “nothing works” when it comes to rehabilitating incarcerated individuals. We revisit this hypothesis by studying an innovative law-enforcement-led program launched in the county jail of Flint, MI: Inmate Growth Naturally and Intentionally through Education (IGNITE). We develop an instrumental variables approach to estimate the effects of IGNITE exposure, leveraging quasi-random court delays that cause individuals to spend more time in jail before and after the program’s launch. Holding time in jail fixed, we find that one additional month of IGNITE exposure reduces weekly misconduct in jail by 25% and three-month recidivism by 24%, with the recidivism effects growing over time. Surveys of staff and community members, along with administrative test-score records and within-jail text messages, suggest that cultural change and improved literacy and numeracy scores are contributing mechanisms.
We estimate a matching model of teachers and elementary schools with rich data on teachers' applications and principals' ratings from a large, urban district in North Carolina. Both teachers’ and principals’ preferences deviate from those that would maximize the achievement of economically disadvantaged students: teachers prefer schools with fewer disadvantaged students, and principals' ratings are weakly related to teacher effectiveness. In equilibrium, these two deviations combine to produce a surprisingly equitable current allocation, where teacher quality is balanced across advantaged and disadvantaged students. To close achievement gaps, policies that address deviations on one side alone are ineffective or harmful, while policies that address both could substantially increase the achievement of disadvantaged students.
The primary motivation behind quantitative work in international trade and many other fields is to shed light on the economic consequences of policy changes and other shocks. To help assess and potentially strengthen the credibility of such quantitative predictions, we introduce an IV-based goodness-of-fit measure that provides the basis for testing causal predictions in arbitrary general equilibrium environments as well as for estimating the average misspecification in these predictions. As an illustration of how to use the measure in practice, we revisit the welfare consequences of the U.S.-China trade war predicted by Fajgelbaum et al. (2020).
This article examines language patterns in U.S. television news coverage of police killings. First, we document that the media use syntactic structures—such as passive voice, nominalizations, and intransitive verbs—that obscure responsibility more often in cases of police killings than in cases of civilian killings. Through an online experiment, we demonstrate the significance of these syntactic differences, revealing that participants are less likely to hold police officers morally responsible and demand penalties when exposed to obfuscatory language, particularly in cases involving unarmed victims. Further analysis of news data shows greater use of obfuscatory language when the victims are unarmed or video footage is available—situations in which obfuscation may have the greatest impact. Exploring the causes of this differential obfuscation, we do not find evidence that it is driven by either demand-side factors or supply-side factors associated with TV station ownership and political leaning. Instead, our results suggest that narratives crafted by police departments are more likely drivers of media obfuscation. This article highlights how syntactic choices and their semantic consequences in media shape perceptions, extending beyond coverage volume and bias.
I develop a model of the social construction of race. Racial categories emerge from labor conflict when elites privilege intrinsically irrelevant traits to divide workers against each other and extract workers’ surplus. I show that elites use color to grant unequal rights and track these rights across generations because it is heritable, observable, and relatively immutable. Depending on the demographic conditions the elites face, the system of racialization manifests either as ancestry-based or color-based categories. This approach to the social construction of race provides a unified explanation of skin-tone inequality, racial homophily in marriage, the social status of mixed-race people, the psychological wage of Jim Crow, and legal restrictions on manumission. I test for historical variations in racial boundaries using census data from the United States and Brazil and for differential patterns of skin-tone inequality between ancestry-based and color-based systems using survey data from across the Americas.
This article studies the unexpected retraction of a U.S. federal policy in 2016 that would have more than doubled the “overtime exemption threshold” from $455 to $913 per week and thereby grant overtime protection to an additional 20% of salaried workers. Although the policy was blocked by a federal court injunction a week before it was supposed to take effect, I show that it nevertheless had a persistent positive impact on workers’ earnings. Leveraging a bunching design with administrative payroll data from ADP, I find that employers raised workers’ salaries to the $913 threshold even after the policy was repealed. Over the next 18 months, difference-in-difference estimates reveal that employers did not slow the wage growth of workers affected by the policy relative to those already earning above $913 per week, nor did they hire new employees at a lower pay rate. Real wages remained persistently elevated relative to what they would have been absent the policy and separation rates decreased among workers bunched at the $913 threshold. Comparing highly exposed firms to unaffected firms, I find an increase in employers’ wage bills but no change in aggregate employment. Taken together, the results indicate that temporary policies impacting wage levels can have permanent effects on the labor market. Survey responses collected by the Department of Labor suggest that morale concerns play a key role in driving the wage hysteresis.
West Bengal potato farmers cannot directly access wholesale markets and do not knowwholesale prices. Local middlemen earn large margins; pass-through from wholesale to farmgate prices is negligible. When we informed farmers in randomly chosen villages about wholesale prices, average farmgate sales and prices were unaffected, but pass-through to farmgate prices increased. These results can be explained by a model where farmers bargain ex post with village middlemen, with the outside option of selling to middlemen outside the village. They are inconsistent with standard oligopolistic models of pass-through, search frictions, or risk-sharing contracts.
West Bengal potato farmers cannot directly access wholesale markets and do not knowwholesale prices. Local middlemen earn large margins; pass-through from wholesale to farmgate prices is negligible. When we informed farmers in randomly chosen villages about wholesale prices, average farmgate sales and prices were unaffected, but pass-through to farmgate prices increased. These results can be explained by a model where farmers bargain ex post with village middlemen, with the outside option of selling to middlemen outside the village. They are inconsistent with standard oligopolistic models of pass-through, search frictions, or risk-sharing contracts.
We propose that individuals are more politically active in more like-minded social environments. To test this hypothesis, we combine administrative data from the Federal Election Commission and the U.S. Postal Service. We identify 45,000 individuals who contributed to Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign and changed residences either before or after the 2012 election cycle.We examine whether living in an area with a higher share of Democrats causes higher contributions to Obama. We find that conformity effects are economically significant. Additionally, we conduct counterfactual analysis that shows that these effects are important for understanding geographic polarization.
Local opinion leaders may play a key role in easing information frictions associated with technology adoption. This paper analyzes the influence of physician investigators who lead clinical trials for new cancer drugs. By comparing diffusion patterns across 21 new cancer drugs, we separate correlated regional demand for new technology from information spillovers. Patients in the lead investigator’s region are initially 36% more likely to receive the new drug, but utilization converges within four years. We also find that superstar physician authors, measured by trial role or citation history, have broader influence than less prominent authors.
This paper employs a unique data set on articles, authors, and editors of the top general interest journals in economics to investigate the role of social connections in the publication process. Ties between editors and authors are identified based on their academic histories. About 43% of the articles published in these journals are authored by scholars connected to one editor at the time of the publication. Ph.D. students and faculty colleagues of an editor also improve their publication outcomes when this editor is in charge of a journal.
Political agency models suggest that elected public officials choose different policies than appointed officials do. This paper is the first (a) to apply a clean empirical design to study whether the selection rule has a causal effect on public officials’ policy choices and (b) to investigate transmission channels. I exploit a unique setting in Germany, where a reform has created quasi-experimental variation in the selection rule for mayors. As the outcome variable, I use data on grant receipts for highly visible investment projects for which mayors must apply to the state government. Elected mayors attract 7% to 7.4% more grants in election years; for appointed mayors, there is no cycle. Using hand-collected data on mayor characteristics, I find suggestive evidence that although the selection of mayors changes following the reform studied, a likely reason for the observed cycle is that elected mayors have stronger electoral incentives.
We examine the housing market and residential mobility changes that occur soon after a Title 1 school fails to achieve adequate yearly progress (AYP) in Charlotte, North Carolina. Students within attendance zones of failing schools are given priority in lotteries for oversubscribed schools, potentially increasing the attractiveness of living in a failing school attendance zone. We find that housing prices, home buyer income, and the probability of attending a nonassigned school increase in the highest-quality neighborhoods within failing school attendance zones. Our results are driven largely by the behavior of new residents.
This paper discusses testable implications of rank invariance or rank similarity, assumptions that are common in program evaluation and in the quantile treatment effect (QTE) literature. We nonparametrically identify, estimate, and test the counterfactual distribution of potential ranks, or features of the distribution. The proposed tests allow treatment to be endogenous, with exogenous treatment following as a special case. The tests essentially do not require any additional assumptions other than those to identify and estimate QTEs. We apply the proposed tests to investigate whether the Job Training Partnership Act training causes trainees to systematically change their ranks in the earnings distribution.
We introduce a test of the rank invariance or rank similarity assumption common in treatment effects and instrumental variables models. The test probes the implication that the conditional distribution of ranks should be identical across treatment states using a regression-based test statistic. We apply the test to data from the Tennessee STAR class-size reduction experiment and show that systematic slippages in rank can be important statistically and economically.
We analyze contracts between a large buyer and her suppliers. We find that contracts with critical product suppliers contain more clauses that address moral hazard, primarily through monitoring. If holdup concerns are larger, there are more contractual protections against it. Over time, contracts with the same supplier include additional provisions that address moral hazard through monitoring. This dynamic effect is strongest for service contracts, where observability and verifiability are initially lower. Our findings indicate that contracts become more complete over time and provide support to incomplete-contracting models that argue that contracts become more complete as contracting costs decrease.
I use daily prices collected from online retailers in five countries to study the impact of measurement bias on three common price stickiness statistics. Relative to previous results, I find that online prices have longer durations, with fewer price changes close to 0, and hazard functions that initially increase over time. I show that time-averaging and imputed prices in scanner and CPI data can fully explain the differences with the literature. I then report summary statistics for the duration and size of price changes using scraped data collected from 181 retailers in 31 countries.
This paper analyzes the transfer pricing of multinational firms. Intrafirm prices may systematically deviate from arm’s-length prices for two motives: pricing to market and tax avoidance. Using French firm-level data on arm’s-length and intrafirm export prices, we find that the sensitivity of intrafirm prices to foreign taxes is reinforced once we control for pricing-to-market determinants. Most important, we find no evidence of tax avoidance if we disregard tax haven destinations. Tax avoidance through transfer pricing is economically sizable. The bulk of this loss is driven by the exports of 450 firms to ten tax havens.
How big is the elasticity of substitution between goods from different countries—the Armington elasticity? Estimates of the macroelasticity between home and imported goods are often smaller than the microelasticity between foreign sources of imports. Using new, highly disaggregate U.S. production data matched to imports and simulated data from a Melitz-style model with nested CES preferences, we explore estimation techniques for the two elasticities. For between two-thirds and three-quarters of sample goods, there is no significant difference between the macro- and microelasticities, but for the rest, the microelasticity is significantly higher, even at the same level of disaggregation.
This paper tests how a major cap-and-trade program, known as the NOx budget trading program (NBP), affected labor markets in the manufacturing sector. The cap-and-trade program dramatically decreased levels of NOx emissions and added substantial costs to regulated firms. Using a triple-differences approach, I examine how labor markets adjusted in manufacturing industries that were exposed to the program. I find that overall employment in the manufacturing sector dropped by 1.3%, with energy-intensive industries losing up to 4.8%. Employment declines are shown to have occurred primarily through decreased hiring rates rather than increased separation rates, thus mitigating the impact on incumbent workers. Young workers experienced the largest employment declines, and earnings of newly hired workers fell after the regulation began.
We document the extent of measurement errors in the basic data set on police used in the literature on the effect of police on crime. Analyzing medium to large U.S. cities over 1960 to 2010, we obtain measurement error-corrected estimates of the police elasticity. The magnitudes of our estimates are similar to those obtained in the quasi-experimental literature, but our approach yields much greater parameter certainty for the most costly crimes, the key parameters for welfare analysis. Our analysis suggests that U.S. cities are substantially underpoliced.
This paper presents a new approach to the measurement of the effects of spatial mismatch that takes advantage of matched employeremployee administrative data integrated with a person-specific job accessibility measure, as well as demographic and neighborhood characteristics. We focus on a group of job searchers for plausibly exogenous reasons: lower-income workers with strong labor force attachment separated during a mass layoff. Our results support the spatial mismatch hypothesis. We find that better job accessibility significantly decreases the duration of joblessness among lower-income displaced workers, especially for blacks, women, and older workers.
The unemployment rate is one of the most important business cycle indicators, but its interpretation can be difficult because slow changes in the demographic composition of the labor force affect the level of unemployment and make comparisons across business cycles difficult. To purge the unemployment rate from demographic factors, labor force shares are routinely used to control for compositional changes. This paper shows that this approach is ill defined, because the labor force share of a demographic group is mechanically linked to that group's unemployment rate, as both variables are driven by the same underlying worker flows. We propose a new demographic-adjustment procedure that uses a dynamic factor model for the worker flows to separate aggregate labor market forces and demographic-specific trends. Using the U.S. labor market as an illustration, our demographic-adjusted unemployment rate indicates that the 2008–2009 recession was much more severe and generated substantially more slack than the early 1980s recession.
Despite dozens of studies, research on crime has struggled to reach consensus about the impact of right-to-carry (RTC) gun laws. With this in mind, we formalize and apply a class of bounded-variation assumptions that flexibly restrict the degree to which outcomes may vary across time and space. Using these assumptions, we present empirical analysis of the effect of RTC laws on violent and property crimes in Virginia, Maryland, and Illinois. Imposing specific assumptions that we believe worthy of consideration, we find that RTC laws increase some crimes, decrease other crimes, and have effects that vary over time for others.
We exploit a quasi-natural experiment of military draftees in Russia during World War I to examine the effects of a massive, negative labor shock on agricultural production. Employing a novel district-level panel data set, we find that mass mobilization produces a dramatic decrease in cultivated area. Surprisingly, farms with communal land tenure exhibit greater resilience to the labor shock than private farms. The resilience stems from peasants reallocating labor in favor of the commune because of the increased attractiveness of its nonmarket access to land and social insurance. Our results support an institutional explanation of factor misallocation in agriculture.
This paper examines whether high-speed Internet affects students' college applications. Our analysis links the diffusion of residential broadband to the testing and application outcomes of millions of PSAT and SAT takers and reveals that students with broadband in their postal code perform better on the SAT and apply to a higher number and more expansive set of colleges. While the availability of broadband generally improved applications to college, the effects appear to be concentrated among high-SES students, suggesting that the new technology may have increased preexisting inequities.
We study the effect of birth order on personality using Swedish population data. Earlier-born men are more emotionally stable, persistent, socially outgoing, willing to assume responsibility, and able to take initiative than later borns. Firstborn children aremore likely to bemanagers and to be in occupations requiring leadership ability, social ability, and Big Five personality traits.We find a significant role for the sex composition within the family. When investigating possible mechanisms, we find that negative effects of birth order are driven by postnatal environmental factors. We also find evidence of lower parental human capital investments in later-born children.
Exploiting a discontinuity in childhood Medicaid eligibility based on date of birth, we find that more years of childhood eligibility are associated with fewer hospitalizations in adulthood. For blacks, we find a 7% to 15% decrease in hospitalizations and a suggestive 2% to 5% decrease in emergency department visits, but no similar effect for nonblacks. The effects are pronounced for utilization related to chronic illnesses and for patients living in low-income postal codes. Calculations suggest that lower rates of hospitalizations during one year in adulthood for blacks offset between 2% and 4% of the initial costs of expanding Medicaid for all children.
This paper studies the political influence of individual firms on congressional decisions to suspend tariffs on U.S. imports of intermediate goods. We develop a legislative bargaining model in which firms influence legislators by transmitting information about the value of protection, using verbal messages and lobbying expenditures. Model estimation using firmlevel data on tariff suspension bills and lobbying expenditures reveals that the probability a suspension is granted decreases with each additional firm that expresses opposition. This effect is significantly larger than that of either opponent or proponent lobbying due to the greater information content of verbal opposition and legislative bargaining costs.
We study attribute-based regulations, under which regulatory compliance of a firm, product, or individual depends on a secondary attribute that is not the intended target of the regulation. We develop a theoretical model of the welfare consequences of attribute basing, including its distortionary costs and potential benefits. We then quantify these welfare consequences using quasi-experimental evidence from weight-based fuel economy regulations.We use bunching analysis to showthat vehicle weight increased in response to regulation. We also leverage a policy change and develop a new method for analyzing double-notched policies to compare the costs and benefits of a specific attribute-based policy.
In models with potentially weak identification, researchers often decide whether to report a robust confidence set based on an initial assessment of model identification. Two-step procedures of this sort can generate large coverage distortions for reported confidence sets, and existing procedures for controlling these distortions are quite limited. This paper introduces a generally applicable approach to detecting weak identification and constructing two-step confidence sets in GMM. This approach controls coverage distortions under weak identification and indicates strong identification, with probability tending to 1 when the model is well identified.
This paper combines revealed preference and nonparametric estimation techniques to obtain nonparametric bounds on the distribution of the money metric utility and demand functions over a population of heterogeneous households. Our approach is independent of any functional specification on the household utility functions. Our method applies the weak axiom of revealed preference to a population of heterogeneous households. Although this does not produce the sharpest bounds, we show that it is computationally attractive and provides narrow bounds. We demonstrate the usefulness of our results by applying it to the Consumer Expenditure Survey, a U.S. cross–sectional consumption data set.
Are individuals more sensitive to losses than gains in terms of economic growth?We find that measures of subjective well-being are more than twice as sensitive to negative as compared to positive economic growth. We use Gallup World Poll data from over 150 countries, BRFSS data on 2.3 million U.S. respondents, and Eurobarometer data that cover multiple business cycles over four decades. This research provides a new perspective on the welfare cost of business cycles, with implications for growth policy and the nature of the long-run relationship between GDP and subjective well-being.
In an economic theory of suicide, we model social cohesion of the religious community and religious beliefs about afterlife as two mechanisms by which Protestantism increases suicide propensity. We build a unique microregional data set of 452 Prussian counties for 1816 to 1821 and 1869 to 1871, when religiousness was still pervasive. Exploiting the concentric dispersion of Protestantism around Wittenberg, our instrumental variable model finds that Protestantism had a substantial positive effect on suicide. Results are corroborated in first-difference models. Tests relating to the two mechanisms based on historical church attendance data and modern suicide data suggest that the sociological channel plays the more important role.
Recessions lead to short-term job loss, lower happiness, and decreasing income levels. There is growing evidence that workers who first join the labor market during economic downturns suffer from poor job matches that can have sustained detrimental effects on wages and career progressions. This paper uses U.S. and U.K. data to document a more disturbing long-run effect of recessions: young people who leave school during recessions are significantly more likely to lead a life of crime than those entering a buoyant labor market. Thus, crime scars resulting from higher entry-level unemployment rates prove to be long lasting and substantial.
This paper studies the role of job displacement in the household bankruptcy decision. Using an event-study methodology, I find that NLSY respondents are over three times more likely to file for bankruptcy immediately following a job loss. Using county-level data, I find similar magnitudes in the aggregate, with significant effects lasting two to three years. The results suggest that unemployment spells can have significant long-term consequences on households’ credit market outcomes.
Exploiting county-level variation in oil-producing areas from shocks to world oil and gas prices, we study how local labor market conditions affect disability take-up. We extend well-known previous work using a similar research design by analyzing a different price shock; a larger, more representative set of labor markets; and a more recent period marked by skyrocketing disability payments. Our estimated elasticity for SSDI payments with respect to earnings of −0.29 is surprisingly similar to earlier findings. Our preferred SSI elasticity estimate of −0.16 is smaller than previous findings, but we show that SSI programmatic changes explain most of the difference.
This paper develops a multicountry model of international trade that provides a simple microfoundation for buyer-seller relationships in trade. We explore a rich data set that identifies buyers and sellers in trade and establish a set of basic facts that guide the development of the theoretical model. We use predictions of the model to examine the role of buyer heterogeneity in a market for firm-level adjustments to trade shocks, as well as to quantitatively evaluate how firms’ marginal costs depend on access to suppliers in foreign markets.
We report three findings. First, using evidence from chain bankruptcies and data on 12 million to 18 million establishments per year, we show that large retailers produce significant positive spillovers. Second, local governments respond to the size of these externalities. When a town’s boundaries allow it to capture a larger share of retail spillovers, it is more likely to offer retail subsidies. Third, these subsidies partially crowd out private sector mechanisms that also subsidize large retailers, such as shopping malls. These facts provide powerful evidence of the Coase theorem at work and highlight a concern for local development policies even when externalities can be targeted.
We estimate the first cross-sectional index of transaction-based land values for every U.S. metropolitan area. The index accounts for geographic selection and incorporates novel shrinkage methods using a prior belief based on urban economic theory. Land values at the city center increase with city size, as do land-value gradients; both are highly variable across cities. Urban land values are estimated at more than two times GDP in 2006. These estimates are higher and less volatile than estimates from residual (total - structure) methods. Five urban agglomerations account for 48% of all urban land value in the United States.
Can electoral institutions induce lasting changes in citizens’ voting habits? We study the long-term and spillover effects of compulsory voting in the Swiss canton of Vaud (1900–1970) and find that this intervention increases turnout in federal referendums by 30 percentage points. However, despite its magnitude, the effect disappears quickly after voting is no longer compulsory. We find minor spillover effects on related forms of political participation that also vanish immediately after compulsory voting has been abolished. Overall, these results question habit formation arguments in the context of compulsory voting.
On March 18, 1976, the Swedish parliament voted on a bill that, if approved, would have substantially increased both the scale and scope of government representation on bank boards. Since parliament was hung, the outcome of the vote was decided by a lottery. We exploit this lottery to study the causal effect on shareholder value of government involvement in the corporate governance of banks. We find that the rejection of the bill resulted in positive abnormal returns that persisted in the following days. The results suggest that unsolicited government involvement in the corporate governance of banks is harmful for owners.
This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and bank concentration. We introduce imperfect competition within the banking system according to the Schumpeterian growth paradigm, and we theoretically and empirically show that the effects of bank concentration on economic growth depend on the proximity to the world technology frontier. The theory predicts that when a country reaches a sufficient level of financial development, bank concentration has a negative effect on development and growth and that this effect increases when the country approaches the frontier. However, for countries with credit constraints, growth depends on only financial intermediation.
In the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2002 and 2007 Censuses of Manufactures, 79% and 73% of observations, respectively, have imputed data for at least one variable used to compute total factor productivity (TFP). The bureau primarily imputes for missing values using mean-imputation methods, which can reduce the underlying variance of the imputed variables. For five variables entering TFP, we show that dispersion is significantly smaller in the Census mean-imputed versus the nonimputed data. We use classification and regression trees (CART) to produce multiple imputations with observed data for similar plants. For 90% of the 473 industries in 2002 and 84% of the 471 industries in 2007, we find that TFP dispersion increases as we move from Census mean-imputed data to nonimputed data to the CART-imputed data.
We document how imperfect information generates heterogeneous effects in information treatments with personalized high-frequency feedback and peer comparisons. In our field experiment in retail electricity, we find that high- and low-energy users symmetrically underestimate and overestimate their relative energy use pretreatment. Responses to personalized feedback, however, are asymmetric. Households that overestimate their relative use and low users both respond by consuming more. These boomerang effects provide evidence that peer-comparison information programs, even those coupled with normative comparisons, are not guaranteed to lead to increases in prosocial behavior.
Can a toolbox of simple heuristic rules help explain lottery choices relative to expected utility theory (EUT)? While a mixture model of EUT plus heuristic rules will obviously fit data better than EUT only, given the small sample sizes, there is a danger of overfitting. Therefore, instead of goodness-of-fit measures, we focus on forecasting performance. Using two data sets of binary lottery choices and reasonable holdout subsets for testing forecasting performance, we find that the EUT-only model forecasts better than the toolbox mixture model with EUT. Even when the toolbox model with EUT fits the data significantly better, EUT-only forecasts better.
The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on autoregressive models produces estimates of the output gap that are strongly at odds with widely held beliefs about transitory movements in economic activity. This is due to parameter estimates implying a high signal-to-noise ratio in terms of the variance of trend shocks as a fraction of the overall forecast error variance. When we impose a lower signal-to-noise ratio, the resulting Beveridge-Nelson filter produces a more intuitive estimate of the output gap that is large in amplitude and highly persistent, and it typically increases in expansions and decreases in recessions. Notably, our approach is also reliable in the sense of being subject to smaller revisions and predicting future output growth and inflation better than other trend-cycle decompositions that impose a low signal-to-noise ratio.
Policymakers are often interested in estimating how policy interventions affect the outcomes of those most in need of help. This concern has motivated the practice of disaggregating experimental results by groups constructed on the basis of an index of baseline characteristics that predicts the values of individual outcomes without the treatment. This paper shows that substantial biases may arise in practice if the index is estimated by regressing the outcome variable on baseline characteristics for the full sample of experimental controls. We propose alternative methods that correct this bias and show that they behave well in realistic scenarios.
In speedboat racing in Japan, men and women compete under the same conditions and are randomly assigned to mixed-sex or single-sex groups for each race. We use a sample of over 140,000 individual-level records to examine how male-dominated circumstances affect women’s racing performance. Our fixed-effects estimates reveal that women’s race time is slower in mixed-sex than all-women races, whereas men’s race time is faster in mixed-sex than men-only races. The same result is found for place in race. Moreover, in mixed-sex races, men are more aggressive, as proxied by lane changing, than women in spite of the risk of being penalized for rule infringement.
We conduct a disaggregated empirical analysis of civil conflict at the subnational level in Africa over 1997 to 2011 using a new gridded data set. We construct an original measure of agriculture-relevant weather shocks exploiting within-year variation in weather and in crop growing season and spatial variation in crop cover. Temporal and spatial spillovers in conflict are addressed through spatial econometric techniques. Negative shocks occurring during the growing season of local crops affect conflict incidence persistently, and local conflict spills over to neighboring cells. We use our estimates to trace the dynamic response to shocks and predict how future warming may affect violence.
Gun violence is an important problem across the United States. However, the impact of government policies on gunfire has been difficult to test due to limited and low-quality data. This paper uses new, more accurate data on gunfire (generated by ShotSpotter audio sensors) to measure the effects of juvenile curfews in Washington, DC. Using variation in the hours of the DC curfew, we find that this policy increases gunfire incidents by 150% during marginal hours. In contrast, voluntarily reported crime measures (such as 911 calls) suggest that the curfew decreases gun violence, likely because of confounding effects on reporting rates.
In this paper, we empirically measure the impact of natural disasters on firm-level operating performance and examine if such impact can be mitigated by technology diversification. Using major natural disasters specified by Barrot and Sauvagnat (2015) and factory location data from the toxic release inventory (TRI) database, we first find that firms with factories located in states affected by natural disasters are much less profitable. Second, we find that firms with diversified technologies are significantly less subject to the impact of natural disasters, suggesting that technology diversity enhances firms’ sustainability.
Using employee-employer matched data, I analyze the impact of a low-wage trade shock on manufacturing workers in a high-wage country, Denmark, and how they adjust to the shock over a decade. I derive causal effects by exploiting the dismantling of the Multifiber Arrangement quotas on products from China upon its WTO accession as a quasi-natural experiment and use within-industry, within-occupation heterogeneity in workers’ exposure to this shock. I find significant negative long-run effects on earnings and employment trajectories and identify job instability in the service sector as a main adjustment friction, concentrated among workers with manufacturing-specific education and occupation. The results establish the importance of specific human capital in trade adjustment and provide evidence of skill upgrading as workers rebuild lost human capital through education.
This study assesses whether workplace pensions help individuals overcome knowledge barriers to saving for retirement. Using administrative data from Canada and exploiting unique features of the pension system, I find compelling evidence that each $1 contributed to workplace pensions partially crowds out other retirement saving by approximately $0.50—among interior savers—in a regression kink design, centering on unionized workers for methodological reasons. Further analysis indicates that active versus passive decisions are influenced by education, exploiting compulsory schooling reforms for identification. I conclude by showing that pension and education reform are both viable mechanisms for boosting saving from a life cycle perspective.
Ambiguity attitudes have been prominently used in economic models, but we still know little about their demographic correlates or their generalizability beyond the West. We analyze the ambiguity attitudes of almost 3,000 students across thirty countries. For gains, we find ambiguity aversion everywhere, while ambiguity aversion is much weaker for losses. Ambiguity attitudes change systematically with probabilities for both gains and losses. Much of the between-country variation can be explained through a few macroeconomic characteristics. In contrast, we find massive unexplained variation at the individual level. We also find much unexplained heterogeneity in individual responses to different decision tasks.
We investigate whether an increase in the potential earnings of men leads to an increase in marriage and a reduction in nonmarital births by exploiting the positive economic shock associated with fracking in the 2000s. A reduced-form analysis reveals that in response to local-area fracking production, which increased wages and jobs for non-college-educated men, both marital and nonmarital birth rates increase, but marriage rates do not. The pattern of results is consistent with positive income effects on births but no associated increase in marriage. We contrast our findings to the Appalachian coal boom experience of the 1970s and 1980s.
This paper quantifies the effects of Russia’s 1981 expansion in maternity benefits on completed childbearing. The program provided one year of partially paid parental leave and a small cash transfer upon a child’s birth. I exploit the program’s two-stage implementation and find evidence that women had more children as a result of the program. Fertility rates rose immediately by 8.2% over twelve months. The increase in fertility rates not only persisted for the ten-year duration of the program, but it reflected large increases in higher-order births to older women who already had children before the program started.
This paper uses world running records by age to estimate a biological frontier of decline rates. Two models are compared: a linear/ quadratic (LQ) model and a nonparametric model. Two estimation methods are used: (a) minimizing the squared difference between the observed records and the modeled biological frontier and (b) using extreme value theory to estimate the biological frontier that maximizes the probability of observing the existing world records by age. The results support the LQ model and suggest a linear percentage decline up to the late 70s and quadratic decline after that.
Using microlevel commodity flow data and microgeographic plant-level data, we construct industry-specific ad valorem trucking rate series and measures of geographic concentration to provide evidence on the relationship between transport costs and agglomeration. We find that low-transport-cost industries display significantly more geographic concentration in the cross-sectional dimension and that falling transport costs agglomerate industries in the panel dimension. The effects are large: the fall in trucking rates between 1992 and 2008 implied a 20% increase in geographic concentration on average, all else equal.
We investigate determinants of driving speed in large U.S. cities. We first estimate city-level supply functions for travel in an econometric framework where the supply and demand for travel are explicit. These estimations allow us to calculate an index of driving speed and to rank cities by driving speed. Our data suggest that a congestion tax of about 3.5 cents per kilometer yields welfare gains of about $30 billion per year, that centralized cities are slower, that cities with ring roads are faster, and that the provision of automobile travel in cities is subject to decreasing returns to scale.
This paper exploits policy discontinuities at U.S. state borders to examine the effect of R&D investments on innovative projects. We examine the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) State Match program, which offers noncompetitive grants to federally awarded SBIR Phase I projects that are eligible to compete for Phase II. Results from SBIR activity (2002–2010) indicate heterogeneous treatment effects. Notably, the positive differential effects are moderated by firms within the science and health fields and with less previous SBIR success. The State Match effectively stabilized Phase II trends in contrast to neighboring states that experienced greater declines from the concurrent recession.
Abstract We analyze for the first time the economic contributions of modern industrial robots, which are flexible, versatile, and autonomous machines. We use novel panel data on robot adoption within industries in seventeen countries from 1993 to 2007 and new instrumental variables that rely on robots’ comparative advantage in specific tasks. Our findings suggest that increased robot use contributed approximately 0.36 percentage points to annual labor productivity growth, while at the same time raising total factor productivity and lowering output prices. Our estimates also suggest that robots did not significantly reduce total employment, although they did reduce low-skilled workers’ employment share.
Abstract This paper studies the effects of violent crime on market prices and size using plant-level panel data in Colombia. To estimate causal effects, I exploit reductions in violence driven by increases in security expenditures during Álvaro Uribe’s presidency; these resulted in greater violence reductions in municipalities that voted for him in the 2002 elections as he was looking for reelection. I find that firms that face higher violence also face lower output and input prices. Output prices fall more than the prices of inputs, which drives firms to reduce production, and some firms exit the market. Workers see reductions in their real income.
Abstract We investigate how the largest use of time—sleep—affects productivity. Time use data from the United States allow us to test a model in which sleep improves productivity. Consistent with theory, we find sleep is more complementary to home production than to leisure for nonemployed individuals. We then show that later sunset time reduces worker sleep and earnings. After ruling out alternative hypotheses, we implement an instrumental variables specification that provides causal estimates of the impact of sleep on earnings. A 1-hour increase in location-average weekly sleep increases earnings by 1.1% in the short run and 5% in the long run.
Abstract We propose a new model for measuring uncertainty and its effects on the economy, based on a large vector autoregression with stochastic volatility driven by common factors representing macroeconomic and financial uncertainty. The uncertainty measures reflect changes in both the conditional mean and volatility of the variables, and their impact on the economy can be assessed within the same framework. Estimates with U.S. data show substantial commonality in uncertainty, with sizable effects of uncertainty on key macroeconomic and financial variables. However, historical decompositions show a limited role of uncertainty shocks in macroeconomic fluctuations.
Abstract We provide evidence that choices over small-stakes bets are consistent with assumptions of some payoff calibration paradoxes. We then exploit the existence of detailed information on individual wealth of our experimental subjects in Denmark and directly estimate risk attitudes and the degree of asset integration. We discover that behavior is consistent with partial, rather than full, asset integration. The implied risk attitudes from estimating these specifications indicate risk premiums and certainty equivalents that are a priori plausible. This theory and evidence suggest one constructive solution to payoff calibration paradoxes.
Abstract Here’s why. (a) The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter introduces spurious dynamic relations that have no basis in the underlying data-generating process. (b) Filtered values at the end of the sample are very different from those in the middle and are also characterized by spurious dynamics. (c) A statistical formalization of the problem typically produces values for the smoothing parameter vastly at odds with common practice. (d) There is a better alternative. A regression of the variable at date t on the four most recent values as of date t - h achieves all the objectives sought by users of the HP filter with none of its drawbacks.
Abstract We formalize the optimal design of experiments when there is interference between units, that is, an individual’s outcome depends on the outcomes of others in her group. We focus on randomized saturation designs, two-stage experiments that first randomize treatment saturation of a group, then individual treatment assignment. We map the potential outcomes framework with partial interference to a regression model with clustered errors, calculate standard errors of randomized saturation designs, and derive analytical insights about the optimal design. We show that the power to detect average treatment effects declines precisely with the ability to identify novel treatment and spillover effects.
Abstract Despite unprecedented vertical growth in large cities, the economics of skyscrapers remain understudied. We combine data on tall buildings with a panel of land prices covering 140 years to analyze the determinants of urban heights. We provide estimates of the land price elasticity of height, the height elasticity of construction cost, and the elasticity of substitution between land and capital for tall buildings. The land price elasticity of height increased substantially over time, and it is larger for commercial than for residential buildings, which suggests that the supply side helps to produce the typical segregation of urban land uses.
Abstract We study the effect of elementary school teachers’ beliefs about gender roles on student achievement. We exploit a natural experiment where teachers are prevented from self-selecting into schools, and, conditional on school, students are allocated to teachers randomly. We show that girls who are taught for longer than a year by teachers with traditional gender views have lower performance in objective math and verbal tests, and this effect is amplified with longer exposure to the same teacher. We find no effect on boys. We show that the effect is partly mediated by teachers’ transmitting traditional beliefs to girls.
Abstract High-impact policies may not lead to support for the political party that introduces them. In 2008, Uganda’s government encouraged groups of youth to submit proposals to start enterprises. Of 535 eligible groups, a random 265 received grants of nearly $400 per person. Prior work showed that after four years, the Youth Opportunities Program raised employment by 17% and earnings by 38%. Here we show that recipients were no more likely to support the ruling party in elections. Rather, recipients slightly increased campaigning and voting for the opposition. Potential mechanisms include program misattribution, group socialization, and financial independence freeing voters from transactional voting.
Abstract Using data on women’s choice of hospital for childbirth in Florida, we find that women return to the same hospital approximately 70% of the time. We separate explanations of switching costs and unobserved preference heterogeneity using a panel data fixed effects estimator and find that switching costs account for approximately 40% of the demand effects of a lagged dependent variable. The welfare effects of excluding a hospital from a payer’s network are smaller in the short run but higher in the long run, given our estimates of switching costs, and the dynamic effects of entry on competition are significantly smaller.
Abstract This paper builds on the composite likelihood concept of Lindsay (1988) to develop a framework for parameter identification, estimation, inference, and forecasting in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models allowing for stochastic singularity. The framework consists of four components. First, it provides a necessary and sufficient condition for parameter identification, where the identifying information is provided by the first- and second-order properties of nonsingular submodels. Second, it provides a procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo for parameter estimation. Third, it delivers confidence sets for structural parameters and impulse responses that allow for model misspecification. Fourth, it generates forecasts for all the observed endogenous variables, irrespective of the number of shocks in the model. The framework encompasses the conventional likelihood analysis as a special case when the model is nonsingular. It enables the researcher to start with a basic model and then gradually incorporate more shocks and other features, meanwhile confronting all the models with the data to assess their implications. The methodology is illustrated using both small- and medium-scale DSGE models. These models have numbers of shocks ranging between 1 and 7.
Abstract This paper examines fiscal policy forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee and its influence on U.S. monetary policy. The forecasts contain useful information beyond that in the CBO’s forecasts. Fiscal forecast errors are only weakly correlated with forecast errors for inflation and output growth, but those for the budget surplus are highly correlated with those for the unemployment rate and the output gap. Some fiscal variables can also account for a significant fraction of the “exogenous” changes in the federal funds rate target that Romer and Romer (2004) studied, consistent with the board’s statements on the importance of fiscal policy.
Abstract We attribute the recent quadrupling of heroin death rates to the August 2010 reformulation of an oft-abused prescription opioid, OxyContin. The new abuse-deterrent formulation led many consumers to substitute an inexpensive alternative, heroin. Using structural break techniques and variation in substitution risk, we find that opioid consumption stops rising in August 2010, heroin deaths begin climbing the following month, and growth in heroin deaths was greater in areas with greater prereformulation access to heroin and opioids. The reformulation did not generate a reduction in combined heroin and opioid mortality: each prevented opioid death was replaced with a heroin death.
Abstract Employment declined substantially during the 2007–2009 recession, especially in small and young firms. Using confidential firm-level data of the universe of firms and a difference-in-differences methodology, this paper estimates that financial constraints reduced employment growth by 4 to 8 percentage points in small firms relative to large firms and by 7 to 9 percentage points in young relative to old firms. I find that the effect of financial constraints on small firms is driven to a large extent by young firms. I then document that financial constraints affected employment growth in small and young firms strongly through the entry and exit of firms.
Abstract This paper estimates the elasticity of substitution between capital and skill in manufacturing using immigration-induced variation in skill mix across U.S. counties between 1860 and 1930. We find that capital initially complemented both high- and low-skill labor (determined by literacy) and, unlike today, was more complementary with low-skill labor. Around 1890, capital increased its relative complementarity with high-skill labor. Simulations calibrated to our estimates imply the level of capital-skill complementarity after 1890 allowed the manufacturing sector to absorb the large wave of Eastern and Southern European immigrants with only a modest decline in less-skilled relative wages. This would not have been possible under the older production technology.
Abstract We examine the U.S. internal migration response to increased import competition following the granting of Permanent Normal Trade Relations to China in 2001. Using a variety of data sets and empirical approaches, we find that local labor markets most exposed to the policy change experienced a relative reduction in population growth over the following decade. The majority of the effect occurs at a lag of seven to ten years and is most pronounced among young individuals and low-education groups. Such population adjustments should influence the interpretation of evidence in the growing literature on import competition and local labor markets.
Abstract Using novel firm-level microdata and leveraging a natural experiment, this paper provides causal evidence for the role of trade and multinational firms in the cross-country transmission of shocks. The scope for trade linkages to generate cross-country spillovers depends on the elasticity of substitution with respect to domestic inputs. Using the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake as an exogenous shock, we structurally estimate production elasticities at the firm level and find greater complementarities in input usage than previously thought. For Japanese affiliates in the United States, output falls roughly one-for-one with declines in imports, consistent with a relationship between imported and domestic inputs that is close to Leontief.
Abstract This study examines the effect of chain store entry on drug quality and prices in India. In contrast to prevailing mom-and-pop pharmacies, chains exploit scale economies in distribution and signaling to offer high-quality drugs at lower cost. We show that chain entry leads to a 5% improvement in drug quality and a 2% decrease in prices at incumbent retailers. Effects are larger for locally distributed drug brands but do not depend on consumer SES. Our findings suggest that in markets with asymmetric information, organizational technologies such as chains can play an important role translating market expansion into higher quality.
Abstract This paper provides direct evidence that learning about demand is an important driver of firms’ dynamics. We present a model of Bayesian learning in which firms are uncertain about idiosyncratic demand in each market and update their beliefs as noisy information arrives. Firms update their beliefs to a given demand shock more, the younger they are. We test and empirically confirm this prediction, using the structure of the model, together with exporter-level data, to identify demand shocks and the firms’ beliefs about future demand. Consistent with theory, we also find the learning process to be weakened in more uncertain environments.
Abstract Research has focused on why and when firms access external technology markets. Less is known about the reliability of patents attached to licensed technologies during litigation. Unreliable patents expose a firm to loss of downstream revenues. We address this by constructing a data set of patent litigation in the pharmaceutical industry and exploit a change in patent law that exogenously increased the probability of litigation. We find that licensed patents are more likely to fall during litigation. This effect is isolated to firms with fewer intellectual property capabilities and less patenting experience, suggesting that benefits from external technology are not shared equally.
Abstract Environmental Engel curves (EECs) describe households’ incomes and the pollution necessary to produce the goods and services they consume. We calculate 29 annual EECs from 1984 to 2012 for point-source air pollutants in the United States, revealing three clear results: EECs slope upward, have income elasticities less than 1, and shift down over time. Even without changes to production techniques, pollution would have declined despite growing incomes. This improvement can be attributed about equally to two trends: household income growth represented by movement along inelastic EECs and economy-wide changes represented by downward shifts in EECs over time.
Abstract We build on the intuitive (static) modeling framework of Rosen (1974) and specify a simple, forward-looking model of location choice. We use this model, along with a series of graphs, to describe the potential biases associated with the static model and relate these biases to the time series of the amenity of interest. We then derive an adjustment factor that allows the potentially biased static estimates to be converted into forwardlooking estimates. Finally, we illustrate these concepts with two empirical applications: the marginal willingness to pay to avoid violent crime and the marginal willingness to pay to avoid air pollution.
Abstract This paper considers moment-based tests applied to estimated quantities. We propose a general class of transforms of moments to handle the parameter uncertainty problem. The construction requires only a linear correction that can be implemented in sample and remains valid for some extended families of nonsmooth moments. We reemphasize the attractiveness of working with robust moments, which lead to testing procedures that do not depend on the estimator. Furthermore, no correction is needed when considering the implied test statistic in the out-of-sample case. We apply our methodology to various examples with an emphasis on the backtesting of value-at-risk forecasts.
Abstract The basic New Keynesian model predicts that positive supply shocks are less expansionary at the zero lower bound (ZLB) compared to periods of active monetary policy. We test this prediction empirically using Fernald's (2014) utilization-adjusted total factor productivity series, which we take as a measure of exogenous productivity. In contrast to the predictions of the model, positive productivity shocks are estimated to be more expansionary at the ZLB compared to normal times. We find that there is no significant difference in the response of expected inflation to a productivity shock at the ZLB compared to normal times.
Abstract How high is unemployment? How low is labor force participation? Is obesity more prevalent among men? How large are household expenditures? We study the sources of the relevant official statistics—the Current Population Survey, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, and the Consumer Expenditure Survey—and find that the answers depend on whether we look at easy- or at difficult-to-reach respondents, measured by the number of call and visit attempts made by interviewers. A challenge to the (conditionally-)random-nonresponse assumption, these findings empirically substantiate the theoretical warning against making population-wide estimates from surveys with low response rates.
Abstract In volume 94 of this REVIEW, Adams, Blackburn, and Cotti (ABC), using Fatal Accident Reporting System data from 1998 to 2006, find that a 10% increase in the minimum wage is associated with a 7% to 11% increase in alcohol-related fatal traffic accidents involving teen drivers. We find this result does not hold when the analysis period is expanded to include 1991 through 2013. In addition, auxiliary analyses provide no support for income-driven increases in alcohol consumption, the primary mechanism posited by ABC. Together, our results suggest that minimum wage increases are not a silent killer.
Large international differences in the price of labor can be sustained by differences between workers or by natural and policy barriers to worker mobility. We use migrant selection theory and evidence to place lower bounds on the ad valorem equivalent of labor mobility barriers to the United States, with unique nationally representative microdata on both U.S. immigrant workers and workers in their 42 home countries. The average price equivalent of migration barriers in this setting for low-skill men is greater than $13,700 per worker per year. Natural and policy barriers may each create annual global losses of trillions of dollars.
A Spanish reform granted regions the authority to set income tax rates, resulting in substantial tax differentials. Using administrative data, we find that conditional on moving, taxes have a significant effect on location choice. A 1% increase in the net-of-tax rate for a region relative to others increases the probability of moving to that region by 1.7 percentage points. We estimate an elasticity of the number of top taxpayers with respect to net-of-tax rates of 0.85. The mechanical increase in tax revenue due to higher tax rates is larger than the loss in tax revenue from the net outflow of migration.
This paper investigates whether attitudes are affected by politico-economic regimes. We exploit the efforts of state socialist regimes to promote women's economic inclusion. Using the German partition after World War II, we show that women from East-Germany are more likely to place importance on career success compared to women from West-Germany. Further, the population at large in East Germany is less likely to hold traditional gender role attitudes. Examining possible mechanisms, we find that the change in attitudes under the East German regime was larger in areas where the growth in female employment was larger. A comparison of Eastern versus Western Europe confirms these results.
We examine gender differences in the response to competitive pressure using data from the most competitive entrance exam—China's Gaokao. Compared to male students, females underperform on the competitive and high-stakes Gaokao, relative to their performance on the low-stakes mock examination. Moreover, women's performance suffers more than men's in response to negative performance shocks in an earlier exam on the same day. These effects are more pronounced for subgroups of students where the stakes matter more. Overall, these findings appear to be best explained by women's lower tolerance for pressure and weaker incentives to do well in high-stakes settings.
The increasing popularity of regression discontinuity methods for causal inference in observational studies has led to a proliferation of different estimating strategies, most of which involve first fitting nonparametric regression models on both sides of a treatment assignment boundary and then reporting plug-in estimates for the effect of interest. In applications, however, it is often difficult to tune the nonparametric regressions in a way that is well calibrated for the specific target of inference; for example, the model with the best global in-sample fit may provide poor estimates of the discontinuity parameter, which depends on the regression function at boundary points. We propose an alternative method for estimation and statistical inference in regression discontinuity designs that uses numerical convex optimization to directly obtain the finite-sample-minimax linear estimator for the regression discontinuity parameter, subject to bounds on the second derivative of the conditional response function. Given a bound on the second derivative, our proposed method is fully data driven and provides uniform confidence intervals for the regression discontinuity parameter with both discrete and continuous running variables. The method also naturally extends to the case of multiple running variables.
This paper examines the claim that exchange rate regimes are of little salience in the transmission of global financial conditions to domestic financial and macroeconomic conditions by focusing on a sample of about forty emerging market countries over 1986 to 2013. Our findings show that exchange rate regimes do matter. The transmission of global financial shocks to domestic credit and house price growth, as well as to banking sector leverage and domestic output, is magnified under fixed exchange rate regimes relative to more flexible (though not necessarily fully flexible) exchange rate regimes.
We use the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to revisit what is termed the credit card debt puzzle: why consumers simultaneously co-hold high-interest credit card debt and low-interest assets that could be used to pay down this debt. Relative to individuals with no credit card debt but positive liquid assets, borrower-savers have very different perceptions of future credit access risk and use credit cards for precautionary motives. Moreover, changing perceptions about credit access risk are essential for predicting transitions among the two groups. Preferences and the composition of financial portfolios also play a role in these transitions.
In this paper, we study the effects of the timing of nutritional aid disbursement on crime, using two main sources of variation: (a) a policy change in Illinois that substantially increased the number of SNAP distribution days and (b) an existing Indiana policy that issues SNAP benefits by last name. We find that staggering SNAP benefits leads to large reductions in crime and theft at grocery stores by 17.5% and 20.9%, respectively. Findings also show that theft decreases in the second and third weeks following receipt but increases in the last week of the benefit cycle due to resource constraints.
Despite evidence that many consumers in health insurance markets are subject to information frictions, approaches used to evaluate these markets typically assume informed, active consumers. We develop a general framework to study insurance market equilibrium in the presence of choice frictions and evaluate key policy interventions. We identify sufficient relationships between the underlying distributions of consumer costs, surplus from risk protection, and choice frictions that determine the welfare impact of friction-reducing policies. We implement our approach empirically, showing how these key sufficient objects can be measured and the link between these objects and policy outcomes.
This paper studies the long-term and life cycle consequences of increasing access to mother and child health care centers in the first year of life. Access to these centers increased completed years of schooling by 0.15 years and earnings by 2%. These effects were stronger for children from a low socioeconomic background and contribute to a 10% reduction in the intergenerational persistence in educational attainment. Better nutrition within the first year of life is a likely mechanism. In particular, we find positive effects on adult height, fewer health risks at age 40, and decreased infant mortality from diarrhea.
This paper develops a criterion to assess equalization of opportunity that is consistent with theoretical views of equality of opportunity. We characterize inequality of opportunity as a situation where some groups in society enjoy an illegitimate advantage. In this context, equalization of opportunity requires that the extent of the illegitimate advantage enjoyed by the privileged groups falls. Robustness requires that this judgment be supported by the broadest class of individual preferences. We formalize this criterion in a decision-theoretic framework and derive an empirical condition for equalization of opportunity based on observed opportunity distributions. The criterion is used to assess the effectiveness of child care at equalizing opportunity among children, using quantile treatment effects estimates of a major child care reform in Norway. Overall, we find strong evidence supporting equalization of opportunity.
We estimate sibling correlations and intergenerational transmission of life cycle earnings within a unified framework that nests previous models. Using data on the Danish population of father/first-son/second-son triads we find that intergenerational effects account for 72% of sibling correlations. This share is higher than in previous studies because we allow for heterogeneous intergenerational transmission between families. For the first time, we show significant U-shaped life cycle variation in sibling correlations, consistent with human capital models. Estimates of intergenerational mobility are of greater value than previously thought for understanding the role of the family in explaining earnings inequality.
We document intracity spatial persistence and its causes. Streetcars dominated urban transit in Los Angeles County from the 1890s to the early 1910s, and were off the road entirely by 1963. However, we find that streetcars' influence remains readily visible in the current pattern of urban density and that this influence has not dissipated in the sixty years since the streetcar's removal. We examine land use regulation as both a consequence of streetcars and a mechanism for the persistent effect of streetcars. Our evidence suggests that the streetcar influences modern behavior through the mutually reinforcing pathways of regulation and agglomerative clustering.
We study the economic effects of place-based policies in the housing market, by investigating the effects of a place-based program on prices of surrounding owner-occupied properties. The program improved the quality of public housing in 83 impoverished neighborhoods throughout the Netherlands. We combine a first-difference approach with a fuzzy regression-discontinuity design to address the fundamental issue that these neighborhoods are endogenously treated. Improvements in public housing induced surrounding housing prices to increase by 3.5%. The program's external benefits are sizable and at least half of the value of investments in public housing.
Residential segregation by race grew sharply during the early twentieth century as black migrants from the South arrived in northern cities. Using newly assembled neighborhood-level data, we provide the first systematic evidence on the impact of prewar population dynamics within cities on the emergence of the American ghetto. Leveraging exogenous changes in neighborhood racial composition, we show that white flight in response to black arrivals was quantitatively large and accelerated between 1900 and 1930. A key implication of our findings is that segregation could have arisen solely from the flight behavior of whites.
This paper studies the causal effect of education on decision making. In 1972, England raised its minimum school-leaving age from 15 to 16 for students born after September 1, 1957. An online survey was conducted with 2,700 individuals born in a 36-month window on either side of this date. Participants made 25 incentivized risk choices that allow us to measure multiple dimensions of decision making. Despite the policy having effects on education, educational qualifications, and income, we find no effects of the policy on decision making or decision-making quality.
We study regression discontinuity designs when covariates are included in the estimation. We examine local polynomial estimators that include discrete or continuous covariates in an additive separable way, but without imposing any parametric restrictions on the underlying population regression functions. We recommend a covariate-adjustment approach that retains consistency under intuitive conditions and characterize the potential for estimation and inference improvements. We also present new covariate-adjusted mean-squared error expansions and robust bias-corrected inference procedures, with heteroskedasticity-consistent and cluster-robust standard errors. We provide an empirical illustration and an extensive simulation study. All methods are implemented in R and Stata software packages.
We derive an inference method that works in differences-in-differences settings with few treated and many control groups in the presence of heteroskedasticity. As a leading example, we provide theoretical justification and empirical evidence that heteroskedasticity generated by variation in group sizes can invalidate existing inference methods, even in data sets with a large number of observations per group. In contrast, our inference method remains valid in this case. Our test can also be combined with feasible generalized least squares, providing a safeguard against misspecification of the serial correlation.
Survey nonresponse has risen in recent years, which has increased the share of imputed and underreported values found on commonly used data sets. While this trend has been well documented for earnings, the growth in nonresponse to government transfers questions has received far less attention. We demonstrate analytically that the underreporting and imputation of transfer benefits can lead to program impact estimates that are substantially overstated when using instrumental variables methods to correct for endogeneity or measurement error in benefit amounts. We document the importance of failing to account for these issues using two empirical examples.
We analyze a model of R&D alliance networks where firms are engaged in R&D collaborations that lower their production costs while competing on the product market. We provide a complete characterization of the Nash equilibrium and determine the optimal R&D subsidy program that maximizes total welfare. We then structurally estimate this model using a unique panel of R&D collaborations and annual company reports. We use our estimates to study the impact of targeted versus nondiscriminatory R&D subsidy policies and empirically rank firms according to the welfare-maximizing subsidies they should receive.
Teamwork pervades modern production, yet teamwork can make individual roles difficult to ascertain. The Matthew effect suggests that communities reward eminent team members for great outcomes at the expense of less eminent team members. We study this phenomenon in reverse, investigating credit sharing after damaging events. Our context is article retractions in the sciences. We find that retractions impose little citation penalty on the prior work of eminent coauthors, but less eminent coauthors experience substantial citation declines, especially when teamed with eminent authors. These findings suggest a reverse Matthew effect for team-produced negative events. A Bayesian model provides a candidate interpretation.
We document that international input-output linkages contribute substantially to synchronizing producer price inflation (PPI) across countries. Using a multicountry, industry-level data set that combines information on PPI and exchange rates with global input-output linkages, we recover the underlying cost shocks that are propagated internationally via the global input-output network, thus generating the observed dynamics of PPI. We then compare the extent to which common global factors account for the variation in actual PPI and in the underlying cost shocks. Across a range of econometric tests, input-output linkages account for half of the global component of PPI inflation.
Local projections (LP) is a popular methodology for the estimation of impulse responses (IR). Compared to the traditional VAR approach, LP allow for more flexible IR estimation by imposing weaker assumptions on the dynamics of the data. The nonparametric nature of LP comes at an efficiency cost, and in practice, the LP estimator may suffer from excessive variability. In this work, we propose an IR estimation methodology based on B-spline smoothing called smooth local projections (SLP). The SLP approach preserves the flexibility of standard LP, can substantially increase precision, and is straightforward to implement. A simulation study shows that SLP can deliver substantial gains in IR estimation over LP. We illustrate our technique by studying the effects of monetary shocks where we highlight how SLP can easily incorporate commonly employed structural identification strategies.
We examine the effect of radiation exposure in utero, resulting from nuclear weapon testing in the 1950s and early 1960s, on long-run outcomes of Norwegian children. Exposure to low-dose radiation, specifically during months 3 and 4 in utero, leads to lower IQ scores for men and lower education attainment and earnings among men and women. Children of persons affected in utero also have lower cognitive scores, suggesting a persistent intergenerational effect of the shock to endowments. Given the lack of awareness about nuclear testing in Norway at this time, our estimates are likely unaffected by avoidance behavior or stress effects.
We estimate the impact of Kenya's postelection crisis on individual risk preferences. The crisis interrupted a longitudinal survey of more than five thousand Kenyan youth, creating plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to civil conflict prior to the survey. Our results indicate that the postelection crisis sharply increased individual risk aversion. Immediately after the crisis, the fraction of subjects displaying extreme risk aversion increased by more than 80%. Findings remain robust when we use an IV estimation strategy that exploits random assignment of respondents to waves of surveying. The crisis also affected trust, social capital, and beliefs about the economy.
We evaluate the impact on youth crime of a welfare reform that tightened activation requirements for social assistance clients. The evaluation strategy exploits administrative individual data in combination with geographically differentiated implementation of the reform. We find that the reform reduced crime among teenage boys from economically disadvantaged families. Stronger reform effects on weekday versus weekend crime, reduced school dropout, and favorable long-run outcomes in terms of crime and educational attainment point to both incapacitation and human capital accumulation as key mechanisms. Despite lowered social assistance take-up, we uncover no indication that loss of income support pushed youth into crime.
Using a unique data set linking preschool blood lead levels, birth, school, and detention records for 125,000 children born between 1990 and 2004 in Rhode Island, we estimate the impact of lead on school suspension and juvenile detention. Sibling fixed-effect models suggest that omitted variables related to family disadvantage do not bias OLS estimates. However, measurement error does. We use IV methods that exploit local (within-neighborhood), variation in lead exposure deriving from road proximity and the deleading of gasoline. For boys, a 1 unit increase in lead increased the probability of suspension from school by 6% and detention by 57%.
Governments have used vouchers to spend billions of dollars on private education; much of this has gone to religiously affiliated schools. We explore the possibility that vouchers could alter the financial outcomes of religious organizations that are operating schools and thus have an impact on the spiritual, moral, and social fabric of communities. Using a data set of Catholic parish finances from Milwaukee, we show that vouchers are a dominant source of funding for many churches. Vouchers appear to offer financial stability for congregations as voucher expansion prevents church closures and mergers. However, voucher expansion causes significant declines in church donations and church revenue from noneducational sources.
Using novel data from the Berea Panel Study, we show that the beauty wage premium for college graduates exists only in jobs where attractiveness is plausibly a productive characteristic. A large premium exists in jobs with substantial amounts of interpersonal interaction but not in jobs that require working with information. This finding is inconsistent with employer taste-based discrimination, which would favor attractive workers in all jobs. Unique task data address concerns that measurement error in the importance of interpersonal tasks may bias empirical work toward finding employer discrimination. Our conclusions are in stark contrast to the findings of existing research.
Fire has long served as a tool in agriculture, but the practice's link with economic activity has made its health consequences difficult to study. Drawing on data from satellite-based fire detection systems, air monitors, and vital records in Brazil, we study how in utero exposure to smoke from sugarcane harvest fires affects health at birth. Exploiting daily changes in fire location and wind direction for identification, we find that late-pregnancy smoke exposure decreases birthweight, gestational length, and in utero survival. Fires less associated with smoke exposure predict improved health, highlighting the importance of disentangling pollution from its economic correlates.
Policymakers often assume that targeting observably poor households suffices in reaching nutritionally deprived individuals. We question that assumption. Our comprehensive assessment for sub-Saharan Africa reveals that undernourished women and children are spread widely across the household wealth and consumption distributions. Roughly three-quarters of underweight women and undernourished children are not found in the poorest 20% of households, and around half are not found in the poorest 40%. Countries with higher undernutrition tend to have higher shares of undernourished individuals in nonpoor households. Intrahousehold inequality accounts in part for our results, but other factors appear to be important, including common health risks.
We collate sixteen panel surveys from twelve developing countries to develop stylized facts from over 14,000 firms on how much firm death there is, which types of these firms are most likely to die, and why they die. Small firms die at an average rate of 8.2% per year. Death rates are higher in richer countries, for younger firms and less profitable firms, and for firms run by youth. We also find that firm death need not mean permanent exit from self-employment for the firm owner.
We provide evidence of a violation of the informativeness principle whereby lucky successes are overly rewarded. We isolate a quasi-experimental situation where the success of an agent is as good as random. To do so, we use high-quality data on football (soccer) matches and select shots on goal that landed on the goal posts. Using nonscoring shots, taken from a similar location on the pitch, as counterfactuals to scoring shots, we estimate the causal effect of a lucky success (goal) on the evaluation of the player's performance. We find clear evidence that luck is overly influencing managers' decisions and evaluators' ratings. Our results suggest that this phenomenon is likely to be widespread in economic organizations.
A new regression-based approach for the estimation of the tail index of heavy-tailed distributions with several important properties is introduced. First, it provides a bias reduction when compared to available regression-based methods; second, it is resilient to the choice of the tail length used for the estimation of the tail index; third, when the effect of the slowly varying function at infinity of the Pareto distribution vanishes slowly, it continues to perform satisfactorily; and fourth, it performs well under dependence of unknown form. An approach to compute the asymptotic variance under time dependence and conditional heteroskcedasticity is also provided.
We propose to use economic theories to construct shrinkage estimators that perform well when the theories' empirical implications are approximately correct but perform no worse than unrestricted estimators when the theories' implications do not hold. We implement this construction in various settings, including labor demand and wage inequality, and estimation of consumer demand. We provide asymptotic and finite sample characterizations of the behavior of the proposed estimators. Our approach is an alternative to the use of theory as something to be tested or to be imposed on estimates. Our approach complements uses of theory for identification and extrapolation.
Do information frictions in health care markets lead to higher prices and price dispersion? Focusing on medical imaging procedures, this paper examines the equilibrium effect of a unique statewide price transparency website. Price information leads to a shift to lower-cost providers, especially for patients subject to a deductible. Furthermore, supply-side effects play a significant role in the long run, benefiting all insured individuals. Supply-side effects reduce price dispersion and are especially relevant in concentrated markets. These effects are important given that high prices are thought to be a primary cause of high private health care spending.
Combining data on locations with career and educational histories of mathematicians, we study how distance and ties affect citation patterns. The ties considered include coauthorship, past colocation, and relationships mediated by advisers and the alma mater. With fixed effects capturing subject similarity and article quality, we find linkages are strongly associated with citation. Controlling for ties generally halves the negative impact of geographic barriers on citations. Ties matter more for less prominent and more recent papers and have retained their quantitative importance in recent years. The impact of distance, controlling for ties, has fallen and is statistically insignificant after 2004.
In the aftermath of the consumer debt–induced recession, policymakers have questioned whether fiscal stimulus is effective during periods of high consumer indebtedness. This study empirically investigates this question. Using detailed data on Department of Defense spending for the 2007–2009 period, we document that the open-economy relative fiscal multiplier is higher in geographies with higher consumer debt. The results suggest that in the short term (2007–2009), fiscal policy can mitigate the adverse effect of consumer (over)leverage on real economic output during a recession. We then exploit detailed microdata to show that both heterogeneous marginal propensities to consume and slack-driven economic mechanisms contribute to the debt-dependent multiplier.
Many settings in empirical economics involve estimation of a large number of parameters. In such settings, methods that combine regularized estimation and data-driven choices of regularization parameters are useful. We provide guidance to applied researchers on the choice between regularized estimators and data-driven selection of regularization parameters. We characterize the risk and relative performance of regularized estimators as a function of the data-generating process and show that data-driven choices of regularization parameters yield estimators with risk uniformly close to the risk attained under the optimal (unfeasible) choice of regularization parameters. We illustrate using examples from empirical economics.
I study a dyadic linking model in which agents form directed links that exhibit homophily and reciprocity. A fixed-effect approach accounts for unobserved sources of degree heterogeneity. I consider specification testing and inference with respect to the homophily and reciprocity parameters. The specification test compares observed transitivity to predicted transitivity. All test statistics account for the presence of an incidental parameter by using formulas based on an asymptotic approximation. In an application to favor networks in Indian villages, the specification test detects that the dyadic linking model underestimates the true transitivity of the network.
How effective are policies aimed at integrating isolated regions? We answer this question in the context of a highway system in one of the poorest regions in the United States. With construction starting in 1965, the Appalachian Development Highway System (ADHS) ultimately consisted of over 2,500 high-grade road miles. We use a simple model of interregional trade to motivate our empirical analysis, which quantifies the relationship between market access and income. We then calibrate the model to evaluate the aggregate impact of the ADHS and compare this with alternative counterfactual proposals. We find that removing the ADHS would have reduced total income by $53.7 billion in the United States, with $22 billion of the losses in Appalachian counties. Our findings highlight the potential aggregate benefits of transportation infrastructure policies and suggest that leakage outside the targeted area may be substantial.
I introduce an empirical auction model where in addition to the private value that each bidder receives upon winning the auction, losing bidders incur a negative externality that depends on the identity of the rival winner. I show how the externalities and private value distributions can be identified and estimated in such a model. I then apply the model to U.S. Forest Service timber auctions. I find that mill bidders impose significant externalities on one another of between 10% and 22% of the heterogeneous portion of their valuation. This leads the timber tracts to be misallocated in 5.2% of the auctions in my sample.
We study the effects of defaults on charitable giving in a large-scale field experiment on an online fundraising platform. We exogenously vary default options along two choice dimensions: the charitable donation decision and the “co-donation” decision regarding how much to contribute to supporting the platform. We document a strong effect of defaults on individual behavior but nevertheless find that aggregate donation levels are unaffected by defaults. In contrast, co-donations increase in the default amount. We complement our experimental results with a structural model that investigates whether personalizing defaults based on individuals' donation histories can increase donation revenues.
Environmental regulations may cause firms to reoptimize over pollution inputs. By regulating air emissions in particular counties, the Clean Air Act (CAA) gives firms incentives to substitute toward polluting other media, like waterways, and toward pollution from plants in other counties. I test these hypotheses using the EPA Toxic Release Inventory (TRI). Regulated plants increase their ratio of water-to-air emissions by 177% (102 log points) and their level of water emissions by 105% (72 log points). Regulation of an average plant increases air emissions at unregulated plants within the same firm by 11%.
Hospital quality measures are crucial to a key idea behind health care payment reforms: “paying for quality” instead of quantity. Nevertheless, such measures face major criticisms largely over the potential failure of risk adjustment to overcome endogeneity concerns when ranking hospitals. In this paper, we test whether patients treated at hospitals that score higher on commonly used quality measures have better health outcomes in terms of rehospitalization and mortality. To compare similar patients across hospitals in the same market, we exploit ambulance company preferences as an instrument for hospital choice. We find that a variety of measures that insurers use to measure provider quality are successful: choosing a high-quality hospital compared to a low-quality hospital results in 10% to 15% better outcomes.
Twin births are often construed as a natural experiment in the social and natural sciences on the premise that the occurrence of twins is quasi-random. We present population-level evidence that challenges this premise. Using individual data for 17 million births in 72 countries, we demonstrate that indicators of mother's health, health-related behaviors, and the prenatal environment are systematically positively associated with twin birth. The associations are sizable, evident in richer and poorer countries—evident even among women who do not use in vitro fertilization—and hold for numerous different measures of health. We discuss potential mechanisms, showing evidence that favors selective miscarriage.
Transfer programs have been shown to reduce intimate partner violence (IPV), but little evidence exists on how activities linked to transfers affect IPV or what happens when programs end. We assess postprogram impacts on IPV of randomly assigning women in Bangladesh to receive cash or food, with or without nutrition behavior change communication (BCC). Six to ten months postprogram, IPV did not differ between women receiving transfers and a control group; however, women receiving transfers with BCC experienced 26% less physical violence. Evidence on mechanisms suggests sustained effects of BCC on women's “threat points,” men's social costs of violence, and household well-being.
This paper examines the long-term determinants of intimate partner violence (IPV) by analyzing its relationship with traditional family structures: stem families in which one child stays in the parental household and nuclear families in which all children leave the household upon marriage. My hypothesis is that coresidence with a mother-in-law increases a wife's contribution to nondomestic work, which may decrease the level of violence. I find that areas where stem families were socially predominant in the past currently have a lower IPV rate, and use differences in inheritance laws in medieval times as an instrument for the different family types.
Whereas attitudes toward risk play an important role in many decisions over the life course, factors that affect those attitudes are not fully understood. Using longitudinal survey data collected in Mexico before and during the Mexican war on drugs, we investigate how risk attitudes change with variation in insecurity and uncertainty brought on by unprecedented changes in local-area violent crime. Exploiting the fact that the timing, virulence, and spatial distribution of changes in violent crime were unanticipated, we establish there is a rise in risk aversion spread across the entire local population as local-area violent crime increases.
We examine how income shocks affect the suicide rate in Indonesia. We use a difference-in-differences approach, exploiting the cash transfer's nationwide rollout, and corroborate the findings using a randomized experiment. Our estimates show that the cash transfers reduce the yearly suicide rate by 0.36 per 100,000 people, corresponding to an 18% decrease. Moreover, a different type of income shock, variability in agricultural productivity, also affects the suicide rate. The cash transfer program reduces the causal impact of the agricultural productivity shocks, suggesting an important role for policy interventions. Finally, we provide evidence for depression as a psychological mechanism.
This paper shows that since votes of members of the Federal Open Market Committee have been included in press statements, stock prices increase after the announcement when votes are unanimous but fall when dissent (which typically is due to preference for higher interest rates) occurs. This pattern started prior to the 2007–2008 financial crisis. The differences in stock market reaction between unanimity and dissent remain, even controlling for the stance of monetary policy and consecutive dissent. Statement semantics also do not seem to explain the documented effect. We find no differences between unanimity and dissent with respect to impact on market risk and Treasury securities.
The downtrend in U.S. interest rates over the past two decades may partly reflect a decline in the longer-run equilibrium real rate of interest. We examine this issue using dynamic term structure models that account for time-varying term and liquidity risk premiums and are estimated directly from prices of individual inflation-indexed bonds. Our finance-based approach avoids two potential pitfalls of previous macroeconomic analyses: structural breaks at the zero lower bound and misspecification of output and inflation dynamics. We estimate that the longer-run equilibrium real rate has fallen about 2 percentage points and appears unlikely to rise quickly.
Models with multiway fixed effects are frequently used to address selection on unobservables. The data used for estimating these models often contain few observations per value of either indexing variable (sparsely matched data). I show that this sparsity has important implications for inference and propose an asymptotically valid inference method based on subsetting. Sparsity also has important implications for point estimation when covariates or instrumental variables are sequentially exogenous (e.g., dynamic models), and I propose a new estimator for these models. Finally, I illustrate these methods by providing estimates of the effect of class size reductions on student achievement.
We estimate uncertainty measures for point forecasts obtained from survey data, pooling information embedded in observed forecast errors for different forecast horizons. To track time-varying uncertainty in the associated forecast errors, we derive a multiple-horizon specification of stochastic volatility. We apply our method to forecasts for various macroeconomic variables from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Compared to simple variance approaches, our stochastic volatility model improves the accuracy of uncertainty measures for survey forecasts.
In this paper, we estimate the costs associated with an important suite of labor regulations in India by taking advantage of the fact that these regulations apply only to firms above a size threshold. Using distortions in the firm size distribution together with a structural model of firm size choice, we estimate that the regulations increase firms' unit labor costs by 35%. This estimate is robust to potential misreporting on the part of firms and enumerators. We also document a robust positive association between regulatory costs and exposure to corruption, which may explain why regulations appear to be so costly in developing countries.
I assemble and classify a database of judicial reforms funded by foreign aid agencies as either comprehensive (targeting all characteristics of quality, speed, access) or limited reform. A triple difference is used to compare firms in countries with or without judicial reforms, before and after reforms, and in sectors more or less reliant on contract enforcement mechanisms, due to their need for relationship-specific investments. I find that externally financed comprehensive judicial reforms improve perceptions of judiciary efficiency (for all firms) and firm productivity (for sectors relying on relationship-specific investments) by 0.15 and 0.09 (22%) standard deviation, respectively.
A one-third quota rule for women in local political leadership seats in India increases the number of female candidates who later contest seats in state and national legislatures. This arises from the candidacy of beneficiaries who gained political experience due to the quotas and career politicians who continue contesting in longer-exposed areas. The policy accounts for a substantial portion of the increase in female candidates for high office since the mid-1990s. Women have a higher probability of a top finish when running on major party tickets or contesting in areas that overlap with their local constituency.
After the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989, and the collapse of the German Democratic Republic, a sudden, unexpected, and massive influx of East German migrants hit the entire West German labor market. The context is well suited for investigating whether immigration influences natives' wages and how the effects depend on product and labor market conditions. We propose direct measures of potential migration with exogenous variation, compare migrants to natives with similar capabilities, and segment the labor market along predetermined margins. We find that immigration can have negative effects on the wages of natives. These effects surface when product and labor markets are competitive but not under regulations that restrict the entry of firms and provide workers with a strong influence on firms' decision making.
Conventional wisdom suggests that labor unions raise worker wages, while the newer empirical literature finds only negligible earnings effects. I reconcile this apparent contradiction by arguing that collective bargaining targets fringe benefits. Using U.S. firm-level data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Multinational Enterprise Survey and Compustat, I exploit a regression discontinuity in majority rule union elections to compare changes in employee compensation at firms whose establishment barely won a union election against those that barely lost an election. Following unionization, average employee compensation and employer pension contributions increase, which raises the labor share of compensation.
Becker's theory of home production suggests substitutability between consumption spending and home production. Using panel data with detailed information on spending and time use, we analyze households' ability to replace consumption spending by home-produced counterparts. Keeping wages fixed and changing lifetime resources by the shock to housing wealth during the Great Recession, we estimate an elasticity of substitution that is consistent with a life cycle Becker model. However, we estimate that only about 11% of total spending is replaceable by home production, which, in contrast to prior literature, makes it unlikely that home production fully mitigates the consequences of wealth shocks to well-being.
Job polarization refers to the shrinking share of employment in middle-skill, routine occupations experienced over the past 35 years. Jobless recoveries refers to the slow rebound in aggregate employment following recent recessions despite recoveries in aggregate output. We show how these two phenomena are related. First, essentially all employment loss in routine occupations occurs in economic downturns. Second, jobless recoveries in the aggregate can be accounted for by jobless recoveries in the routine occupations that are disappearing.
Using survey data from a representative sample of Dutch households, we estimate the strength of precautionary saving by eliciting subjective expectations on future consumption. Expected consumption risk is positively correlated with self-employment and income risk and negatively with age. We insert these subjective expectations (rather than consumption realizations, as in the existing literature) in an Euler equation for consumption and estimate the degree of prudence by associating expected consumption risk with expected consumption growth. Robust OLS and IV estimates indicate a coefficient of relative prudence of around 2. We obtain similar results via partial identification methods using weak assumptions.
We provide evidence on three mechanisms that can reconcile frequent individual price changes with sluggish aggregate price dynamics. To that end, we estimate a semistructural model that can extract information about real rigidities and the distribution of price stickiness from aggregate data. Hence, the model can also speak to the debate about the aggregate implications of sales. Our estimates indicate large real rigidities and substantial heterogeneity in price stickiness. Moreover, the cross-sectional distribution of price stickiness implied by aggregate data is in line with an empirical distribution obtained from microprice data that factors out sales and product substitutions.
Aggregate price levels are positively related to GDP per capita across countries. We propose a mechanism that rationalizes this observation through sectoral differences in intermediate input shares. As productivity and income grow, so do wages relative to intermediate input prices, which increases the relative price of nontradables if tradable sectors use intermediate inputs more intensively. We show that sectoral differences in input intensities can account for about half of the observed elasticity of the aggregate price level with respect to GDP per capita. The mechanism has stark implications for industry-level real exchange rates that are strongly supported by the data.
We study editorial decisions using anonymized submissions matched to citations at four leading economics journals. We develop a benchmark model in which editors maximize the expected quality of accepted papers and citations are unbiased measures of quality. We then generalize the model to allow different quality thresholds, systematic gaps between citations and quality, and a direct impact of publication on citations. We find that referee recommendations are strong predictors of citations and that editors follow these recommendations closely. We document two deviations from the benchmark model. First, papers by highly published authors receive more citations, conditional on the referees' recommendations and publication status. Second, recommendations of highly published referees are equally predictive of future citations, yet editors give their views significantly more weight.
Abstract We show that tenth-grade teacher expectations affect students' likelihood of college completion. Our approach leverages a unique feature of a nationally representative dataset: two teachers provided their educational expectations for each student. Identification exploits teacher disagreements about the same student, an idea we formalize using a measurement error model. We estimate an elasticity of college completion with respect to teachers' expectations of 0.12. On average, teachers are overly optimistic, though white teachers are less so with black students. More accurate beliefs are counterproductive if there are returns to optimism or sociodemographic gaps in optimism. We find evidence of both.
Abstract We estimate the causal effects of education on the intergenerational transmission of violence against children by exploiting an extension of compulsory schooling in Turkey. Using a regression-discontinuity design, we find that the reform increased maternal education by one year, with stronger effects for women raised in rural areas. The increase in education among rural women led to a reduction in the perpetration of child physical abuse but only by mothers who were physically abused by their own families during childhood. Exploring potential channels, we document that these women were also more likely to experience improved mental health outcomes.
Abstract This paper asks whether scarcity increases violence in markets that lack a centralized authority. We construct a model in which, by raising prices, scarcity fosters violence. Guided by our model, we examine this effect in the Mexican cocaine trade. At a monthly frequency, scarcity created by cocaine seizures in Colombia, Mexico's main cocaine supplier, increases violence in Mexico. The effects are larger in municipalities near the United States, with multiple cartels and with strong support for PAN (the incumbent party). Between 2006 and 2009 the decline in cocaine supply from Colombia could account for 10% to 14% of the increase in violence in Mexico.
Abstract By matching a large database of individual macroforecaster data with the universe of sizable natural disasters across 54 countries, we identify a set of new stylized facts: forecasters are persistently heterogeneous in how often they issue or revise a forecast; information rigidity declines significantly following large, unexpected natural disaster shocks; and disagreement decreases among inattentive agents while it might increase for attentive ones. We develop a learning model that captures the two channels through which natural disaster shocks affect expectation formation: attention effect—the visibly large shocks induce immediate and synchronized updating of information for inattentive agents—and uncertainty effect—attentive agents might increase their acquisition of private information to compensate for the higher uncertainty after shocks.
Abstract We use novel quarterly data of U.S. states to examine the dynamics of relative spending multipliers in the decade surrounding the Great Recession. While multipliers were around 1 in expansions, they reached values above 4 when a state was in a recession. Also a high (low) degree of household indebtedness augmented (lowered) a state's multiplier by 0.5 in expansions and 2 in recessions. We further document modest positive spillover effects across states and show that a mere redistribution of spending across states also had a significant influence on the aggregate U.S. economy due to cross-state heterogeneity of the effects.
Abstract We investigate empirically how fiscal shocks—unanticipated and exogenous changes of government consumption growth—affect the sovereign default premium. For this purpose, we assemble a new data set for 38 emerging and developed economies. It contains approximately 3,000 observations for the sovereign default premium and three alternative measures of fiscal shocks. We condition our estimates on whether shocks are positive or negative and initial conditions in terms of fiscal stress. An increase of government consumption barely affects the default premium. A reduction raises the premium if fiscal stress is severe but decreases it if initial conditions are benign.
Abstract We estimate the impact of youth minimum wages on youth employment by exploiting a large discontinuity in Danish minimum wage rules at age 18, using monthly payroll records for the Danish population. The hourly wage jumps by 40% at the discontinuity. Employment falls by 33%, and total input of hours decreases by 45%, leaving the aggregate wage payment almost unchanged. We show theoretically how the discontinuity may be exploited to evaluate policy changes. The relevant elasticity for evaluating the effect on youth employment of changes in their minimum wage is in the range 0.6 to 1.1.
Abstract We study nonparametric and regression estimators of treatment and spillover effects when interference is mediated by a network. Inference is nonstandard due to dependence induced by treatment spillovers and network-correlated effects. We derive restrictions on the network degree distribution under which the estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal and show they can be verified under a strategic model of network formation. We also construct consistent variance estimators robust to heteroskedasticity and network dependence. Our results allow for the estimation of spillover effects using data from only a single, possibly sampled, network.
Abstract This paper identifies an exogenous variation in post–Civil War policy to examine the effect of land reform on racial inequality. The Cherokee Nation, located in what is now Oklahoma, permitted slavery and joined the Confederacy in 1861. During postwar negotiations, the Cherokee Nation agreed to provide free land for its former slaves. Using linked data that follow former slaves in the Cherokee Nation from 1880 to 1900, I find that racial inequality was lower in the Cherokee Nation in both 1880 and 1900. Land and the associated increase in incomes may have facilitated investment in both physical and human capital.
Abstract In 1924, the Morton Salt Company began nationwide distribution of iodine-fortified salt. Access to iodine, a key determinant of cognitive ability, rose sharply. We compare outcomes for cohorts exposed in utero with those of slightly older, unexposed cohorts, across states with high versus low baseline iodine deficiency. Income increased by 11%, labor force participation rose 0.68 percentage points, and full-time work went up 0.9 percentage points due to increased iodine availability. These impacts were largely driven by changes in the economic outcomes of young women. In later adulthood, both men and women had higher family incomes due to iodization.
We report robust evidence of a new short-run monetary election cycle: the monthly growth rate of the money supply (M1) around elections is higher than in other months in a sample of low- and middle-income countries. We hypothesize this is related to systemic vote buying. Consistent with this, we find no cycle in authoritarian countries and countries with strong political institutions and a pronounced cycle in elections where international election monitors reported vote buying or in close elections. Using survey data on daily consumer expenditures, we show that within-household consumption of food increases in the days before elections.
Using a series of Pakistani tax reforms and administrative records, I document that taxable income responses induced by to-zero tax cuts are orders of magnitude larger than ones induced by similar-sized other cuts. This finding is remarkably robust to alternative specifications and holds for both the self-employed and wage earners. I explore salience, selective enforcement, and discontinuous evasion costs as explanations of the observed behavior. I find that the data favor the last explanation. The difference between the two sets of responses is primarily driven by a large, discrete tax evasion response, which is included in the former but not in the latter behavior. I estimate the difference as a lower bound on tax evasion, showing that at least 70% of the income of low- and middle-income self-employed and 1% of low-income wage earners goes unreported.
This study investigates the impacts of exporting on working conditions in Myanmar by drawing on a new firm survey. For the identification, I use the rapid opening of Myanmar to trade alongside the firm's proximity to airports and products that have generated variations in access to foreign markets. The results show that exporting has significant positive impacts on working conditions regarding fire safety, health management, and freedom of negotiation; positive insignificant effects on wages; and negative insignificant effects on working hours. I also find that exporting positively affects firm size, management practices, and the likelihood of receiving a labor audit.
We examine residential relocation and opting out of the public school system in response to school choice lottery outcomes. We show that rising kindergartners and sixth graders who lose a school choice lottery are 6 percentage points more likely to exit the district or change neighborhood schools (20% to 30% increase) and make up 0.14 to 0.35 standard deviations in average school test scores between lottery assignment and attendance the following year. Using hedonic-based estimates of land prices, we estimate that lottery losers pay a 9% to 11% housing price premium for access to a school with a 1 standard deviation higher mean test score.
School finance reforms caused some of the most dramatic increases in intergovernmental aid from states to local governments in U.S. history. We examine whether teachers' unions affected the fraction of reform-induced state aid that passed through to local spending and the allocation of these funds. Districts with strong teachers' unions increased spending nearly dollar-for-dollar with state aid and spent the funds primarily on teacher compensation. Districts with weak unions used aid primarily for property tax relief and spent remaining funds on hiring new teachers. The greater expenditure increases in strong union districts led to larger increases in student achievement.
While the unemployment insurance (UI) program is one of the largest safety net programs in the United States, research on its benefits is limited. This paper exploits plausibly exogenous changes in state UI laws to empirically estimate whether UI generosity mitigates any of the previously documented negative health effects of job loss. The results show that higher UI generosity increases health insurance coverage and utilization, with stronger effects during periods of high unemployment rates. During such periods, higher UI generosity also leads to improved self-reported health. Finally, I find no effects on risky behaviors or health conditions.
We investigate the link between hospital performance and managerial education by collecting a large database of management practices and skills in hospitals across nine countries. We find that hospitals closer to universities offering both medical education and business education have lower mortality rates from acute myocardial infarction (heart attacks), better management practices, and more MBA-trained managers. This is true compared to the distance to universities that offer only business or medical education (or neither). We argue that supplying bundled medical and business education may be a channel through which universities improve management practices in hospitals and raise clinical performance.
In the standard missing data model, data are either complete or completely missing. However, applied researchers face situations with an arbitrary number of strata of incompleteness. Examples include unbalanced panels and instrumental variables settings where some observations are missing some instruments. I propose a model for settings where observations may be incomplete, with an arbitrary number of strata of incompleteness. I derive a set of moment conditions that generalizes those in Graham's (2011) standard missing data setup. I derive the associated efficiency bound and propose efficient estimators. Identification can be achieved even if it fails in each stratum of incompleteness.
Portfolio sorting is ubiquitous in the empirical finance literature, where it has been widely used to identify pricing anomalies. Despite its popularity, little attention has been paid to the statistical properties of the procedure. We develop a general framework for portfolio sorting by casting it as a nonparametric estimator. We present valid asymptotic inference methods and a valid mean square error expansion of the estimator leading to an optimal choice for the number of portfolios. In practical settings, the optimal choice may be much larger than the standard choices of five or ten. To illustrate the relevance of our results, we revisit the size and momentum anomalies.
We evaluate the temporal stability of risk preferences using a remarkable data set that combines sociodemographic information from the Danish Civil Registry with information on risk attitudes from a longitudinal field experiment. Our econometric model accounts for endogenous sample selection and attrition processes that may confound inferences about temporal stability. Our experimental design builds in randomization on the incentives for participation that facilitates empirical identification of the model. In general, we find evidence consistent with temporal stability after correcting for the effects of selection and attrition. When neglected, these effects change our inferences in an economically and statistically significant manner.
We investigate the willingness of individuals to persist at exploration when confronted by prolonged periods of negative feedback. We design a two-dimensional maze game and run a series of randomized experiments with human subjects in the game. Our results suggest individuals explore more when they are reminded of the incremental cost of their actions, a result that extends prior research on loss aversion and prospect theory to environments characterized by model uncertainty. In addition, we run simulations based on a model of reinforcement learning that extend beyond two-period models of decision making to account for repeated behavior in longer-running, dynamic contexts.
Though fundamental to innovation and essential to many industries and occupations, individual creativity has received limited attention as an economic behavior and has historically proven difficult to study. This paper studies the incentive effects of competition on individuals' creative production. Using a sample of commercial logo design competitions and a novel, content-based measure of originality, I find that intensifying competition induces agents to produce original, untested ideas over tweaking their earlier work, but heavy competition drives them to stop investing altogether. The results yield lessons for the management of creative workers and the implementation of competitive procurement mechanisms for innovation.
We develop a method to use the one-time cross-sectional impact of a cleanly identified shock to identify its aggregate impact through the use of a factor model. We apply this methodology to evaluate the importance of fluctuations to the commitment to a currency peg for macroeconomic outcomes during the gold standard period in the United States. The presidential election in 1896 provides a cleanly identified positive shock to commitment to the gold standard. After the election, bank leverage increased substantially, particularly in states where gold was in greater use. Using the latent factor identified by the election, we find that full commitment to gold had the potential to reduce the volatility of real activity overall by a significant amount in the last two decades of the nineteenth century, as well as substantially mitigate the economic depression starting in 1893.
Technology adoption often requires multiple stages of investment. As new information emerges, agents may abandon a technology that was profitable in expectation. We use a field experiment to vary the payoffs at two stages of investment in a new technology: a tree species that provides on-farm fertilizer benefits. Farmer decisions identify the information about profitability that arrives between the take-up and follow-through stages. Results show that this form of uncertainty increases take-up but lowers average tree survival, decreasing the cost-effectiveness of take-up subsidies. Thus, uncertainty offers another explanation for why even costly technologies may go unused or be abandoned.
This paper estimates neighborhood effects on adult labor market outcomes using the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) housing mobility experiment. We propose and implement a new strategy for identifying transition-specific effects that exploits identification of the unobserved component of a neighborhood choice model. Estimated local average treatment effects (LATEs) are large, result from moves between the first and second deciles of the national distribution of neighborhood quality, and pertain to a subpopulation of nine percent of program participants.
Will college students who set goals work harder and perform better? We report two field experiments that involved four thousand college students. One experiment asked treated students to set goals for performance in the course; the other asked treated students to set goals for a particular task (completing online practice exams). Task-based goals had robust positive effects on the level of task completion and marginally significant positive effects on course performance. Performance-based goals had positive but small and statistically insignificant effects on course performance. A theoretical framework that builds on present bias and loss aversion helps to interpret our results.
This paper reports the results of two randomized field experiments, each offering different populations of Chicago youth a supported summer job. The program consistently reduces violent-crime arrests, even after the summer, without improving employment, schooling, or other arrests; if anything, property crime increases over two to three years. Using a new machine learning method, we uncover heterogeneity in employment impacts that standard methods would miss, describe who benefits, and leverage the heterogeneity to explore mechanisms. We conclude that brief youth employment programs can generate important behavioral change, but for different outcomes, youth, and reasons than those most often considered in the literature.
We estimate the effects of universal cash transfers on crime from Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend, an annual lump-sum payment to all Alaska residents. We find a 14% increase in substance-abuse incidents the day after the payment and a 10% increase over the following four weeks. This is partially offset by an 8% decrease in property crime, with no changes in violent crimes. On an annual basis, however, changes in criminal activity from the payment are small. Estimated costs comprise a very small portion of the total payment, suggesting that crime-related concerns of a universal cash transfer program may be unwarranted.
This paper studies how monetary policy jointly affects asset prices and the real economy in the United States. I develop an estimator that uses high-frequency surprises as a proxy for the structural monetary policy shocks. This is achieved by integrating the surprises into a vector autoregressive model as an exogenous variable. I use current short-term rate surprises because these are least affected by an information effect. When allowing for time-varying model parameters, I find that compared to the response of output, the reaction of stock and house prices to monetary policy shocks was particularly low before the 2007–2009 financial crisis.
I identify significant effects of devaluation risk on interest rates and output using US silver coinage policy news between 1878 and 1900 as clean shocks to exchange rate expectations. The Free Silver movement heightened fears the United States would abandon the gold standard and depreciate the dollar. Because Congress, rather than a central bank, set silver coinage policy, silver policy news was likely uncorrelated with economic shocks. Corporate bonds exposed to dollar devaluation returned an additional 1 percent relative to safer bonds when silver risk decreased. Additionally, increased silver coinage risk is associated with an economically significant fall in industrial production.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates on March 3, 2020, in response to COVID-19. On March 5 and 6, I surveyed over 500 consumers about their concerns about COVID-19, awareness of the Fed's announcement, and macroeconomic expectations. Most consumers were concerned about effects of COVID-19 on the economy, their health, and their personal finances. About 38% were aware that the Fed had cut interest rates. Greater concern is associated with higher inflation expectations and more pessimistic unemployment expectations. I informed respondents about the Fed's announcement, which led some consumers to become more optimistic about unemployment and revise inflation expectations downward.
Using a representative online panel from the United States, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations, we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood of a recession. Respondents update their macroeconomic outlook in response to the forecasts, extrapolate to expectations about their personal economic circumstances, and adjust their consumption plans and stock purchases. Extrapolation to expectations about personal unemployment is driven by individuals with higher exposure to macroeconomic risk, consistent with macroeconomic models of imperfect information in which people are inattentive but understand how the economy works.
We offer a new explanation as to why international trade is so volatile in response to economic shocks. Our approach combines the idea of uncertainty shocks with international trade. Firms order inputs from home and foreign suppliers. In response to an uncertainty shock firms disproportionately cut orders of foreign inputs due to higher fixed costs. In the aggregate, this leads to a bigger contraction in international trade flows than in domestic activity, a magnification effect. We confront the model with newly compiled US import and industrial production data. Our results help to explain the Great Trade Collapse of 2008–2009.
This paper employs unique data on export transactions and corporate tax returns of UK multinational firms and finds that firms manipulate their transfer prices to shift profits to lower-taxed destinations. It shows that the 2009 tax reform in the United Kingdom, which changed the taxation of corporate profits from a worldwide to a territorial system, led to a substantial increase in transfer mispricing. It also provides evidence for a trade creation effect of transfer mispricing and estimates substantial transfer mispricing in non-tax-haven countries with low- to medium-level corporate tax rates, and in R&D intensive firms.
We study the adoption of energy-efficient LED lighting in garment factories around Bangalore, India. Combining daily production line–level data with weather data, we estimate a negative, nonlinear productivity-temperature gradient. We find that LED lighting raises productivity on hot days. Using the firm's costs data, we estimate that the payback period for LED adoption is less than one-third the length after accounting for productivity co-benefits. The average factory in our data gains about $2,880 in power consumption savings and about $7,500 in productivity gains.
Using a proprietary database of online job postings, we find that education and experience requirements rose during the Great Recession. These increases were larger in states and occupations that experienced greater increases in the supply of available workers. This finding is robust to controlling for local demand conditions and firm × job-title fixed effects and using a natural experiment arising from troop withdrawals as an exogenous shock to labor supply. Our results imply that the increase in unemployed workers during the Great Recession can account for 18% to 25% of the increase in skill requirements between 2007 and 2010.
We propose a novel nonparametric method to empirically identify economies of scale in multiperson household consumption. We assume consumption technologies that define the public and private nature of expenditures through Barten scales. Our method (solely) exploits preference information revealed by a cross-section of household observations while accounting for fully unobserved preference heterogeneity. An application to data drawn from the US Panel Study of Income Dynamics shows that the method yields informative results on scale economies and intrahousehold allocation patterns. In addition, it allows us to define individual compensation schemes required to preserve the same consumption level in case of marriage dissolution or spousal death.
We study how career and wage incentives affect labor productivity through self-selection and incentive effect channels using a two-stage field experiment in Malawi. First, recent secondary school graduates were hired with either career or wage incentives. After employment, half of the workers with career incentives randomly received wage incentives, and half of the workers with wage incentives randomly received career incentives. Career incentives attract higher-performing workers than wage incentives do, but they do not increase productivity conditional on selection. Wage incentives increase productivity for those recruited through career incentives. Observable characteristics are limited in explaining selection effects of entry-level workers.
We show that academics with experience in government jobs generate spillovers for their early-career colleagues. Our template is the National Science Foundation rotation program in which the agency employs academics, called rotators, on loan from their university. Within two years after the rotator's return, fresh assistant professors in her department increase their research resources materially and are more likely to win small and medium-size grants compared to academics in three control groups. Consistent with evidence that the mechanism is mentoring from the rotator, the results suggest that access to individuals with insights gained outside academia propels scientific careers.
This paper measures gender bias in discussions about women versus men in an online professional forum. I study the content of posts that refer to each gender and the transitions in the topics between consecutive posts once attention turns to one gender or the other. Discussions about women tend to emphasize their personal characteristics instead of professional accomplishments. Posts about women are also more likely to lead to deviations from professional topics than are posts about men. I interpret these findings through a model that highlights posters' incentives to boost their own identities relative to the underrepresented out-group in a profession.
Comparing two sources of wage data in Mexico—firms' reports to the social security agency and individuals' responses to a household survey—we document extensive underreporting of wages by formal firms, with compliance better in larger firms. We also present evidence that the 1997 Mexican pension reform, which tied pension benefits more closely to reported wages for younger workers, led to a relative decline in underreporting for younger age groups. The results suggest that giving employees incentives and information to improve the accuracy of employer reports can be an effective way to improve payroll tax compliance.
This paper develops a theoretical framework to study the critical role that politics play in shaping the spatial dimension of China's urbanization and the related welfare implications. Utilizing a large data set of residential land transactions matched with city leaders in 200 Chinese cities from 2000 through 2011, the empirical analysis finds that a 1 standard deviation increase in the career-incentive measure leads to 9 additional kilometers of outward expansion, a 23% increase relative to the sample average. It also finds some suggestive evidence pointing to the distortionary impacts of overly strong incentives of city leaders on spatial expansion, consistent with the theory.
In this paper, we analyze how the physical layout of cities affects innovation by influencing the organization of knowledge exchange. We exploit a novel data set covering all census block groups in the contiguous United States with information on innovation outcomes, street infrastructure, as well as population and workforce characteristics. To deal with concerns of omitted variable bias, we apply commuting zone fixed effects and construct instruments based on historic city planning. The results suggest that variation in street network density may explain regional innovation differentials beyond the traditional location externalities found in the literature.
Each new radial highway serving large U.S. metropolitan areas decentralized 14% to 16% of central city working residents and 4% to 6% of jobs in the 1960–2000 period. Model calibrations yield implied elasticities of central city total factor productivity to central city employment relative to suburban employment of 0.04 to 0.09, meaning a large fraction of agglomeration economies operates at submetropolitan-area spatial scales. Each additional highway causes central city income net of commuting costs to increase by up to 2.4% and housing cost to decline by up to 1.3%. Factor reallocation toward land in housing production generates the plurality of the population decentralization caused by new highways.
We examine the macroeconomic effects of forward guidance shocks at the zero lower bound. Empirically, we identify forward guidance shocks using unexpected changes in futures contracts around monetary policy announcements. We then embed these policy shocks in a vector autoregression to trace out their macroeconomic implications. Forward guidance shocks that lower expected future policy rates lead to moderate increases in economic activity and inflation. After examining forward guidance shocks in the data, we show that a standard model of nominal price rigidity can reproduce our empirical findings. To estimate our theoretical model, we generate a model-implied futures curve that closely links our model with the data. Our results suggest no disconnect between the empirical effects of forward guidance shocks around policy announcements and the predictions from a standard theoretical model.
We provide new evidence on the cyclicality of employers' real labor costs using BLS establishment job data for the 1982–2018 period. Average straight-time wages have become countercyclical since the financial crisis and the subsequent Great Recession. So have benefit expenditures and overall labor costs, as well as major benefit expenditures, including health insurance and Social Security. Consistent with prior literature, we find that total earnings—the sum of straight-time wages, bonuses, and overtime earnings—were procyclical before 2008; even earnings have become countercyclical since then. The increasing countercyclicality of labor costs is largely attributable to periods with below-trend GDP.
Medicare reimburses health care providers for the drugs they administer. Since 2005, it has reimbursed based on the past price of the drug. Reimbursement on past prices could motivate manufacturers to set higher launch prices because providers become less sensitive to price and because provider reimbursement is higher if past prices were higher. Using data on drug launch prices between 1999 and 2010, we estimate that reimbursement based on past prices caused launch prices to rise dramatically. The evidence is consistent with the 2018 claim from Medicare's administrator that it “creates a perverse incentive for manufacturers to set higher prices.”
This paper proposes a method to estimate unconditional quantile treatment effects (QTEs) given one or more treatment variables, which may be discrete or continuous, even when it is necessary to condition on covariates. The estimator, generalized quantile regression (GQR), is developed in an instrumental variable framework for generality to permit estimation of unconditional QTEs for endogenous policy variables, but it is also applicable in the conditionally exogenous case. The framework includes simultaneous equations models with nonadditive disturbances, which are functions of both unobserved and observed factors. Quantile regression and instrumental variable quantile regression are special cases of GQR and available in this framework.
The most commonly employed paradigms for decision making under risk are expected utility, prospect theory, and regret theory. We examine the simple heuristic of maximizing the probability of being ahead, which in some natural economic situations may be in contradiction to all three of the above fundamental paradigms. We test whether this heuristic, which we call probability dominance (PD), affects decisions under risk. We set up head-to-head situations where all preferences of a given class (expected utility, original or cumulative prospect theory, or regret theory) favor one alternative yet PD favors the other. Our experiments reveal that 49% of subjects' choices are aligned with PD in contradiction to any form of expected utility or prospect theory maximization; 73% are aligned with PD as opposed to preferences under risk aversion and under original and cumulative prospect theory preferences; and 68% to 76% are aligned with PD contradicting preferences under regret theory. We conclude that probability dominance substantially affects choices and should therefore be incorporated into decision-making models. We show that PD has significant economic consequences. The PD heuristic may have evolved through situations of winner-take-all competition.
This paper examines the long-run economic consequences of Russian serfdom. Employing data on the intensity of labor coercion just prior to emancipation in 1861, we document that a 25 percentage point increase in historical serfdom (1 SD) reduces household expenditure today by up to 17%. We then provide evidence on the persistence of this relationship by studying city populations over the period 1800 to 2002. Exploring mechanisms, our findings suggest that less urban agglomeration and slower industrial development in areas with a greater degree of serfdom perpetuated the negative effects of forced labor before, during, and after the Soviet period.
This paper estimates the effect of social connectedness on crime across U.S. cities from 1970 to 2009. Migration networks among African Americans from the South generated variation across destinations in the concentration of migrants from the same birth town. Using this novel source of variation, we find that social connectedness considerably reduces murders, rapes, robberies, assaults, burglaries, and motor vehicle thefts, with a 1 standard deviation increase in social connectedness reducing murders by 21% and motor vehicle thefts by 20%. Social connectedness especially reduces murders of adolescents and young adults committed during gang and drug activity.
This paper contributes to the debate on the impact of juvenile crime punishment on high school completion and adult recidivism using administrative data from a southern U.S. state. We exploit random assignment of cases to judges and use idiosyncratic judge stringency in imprisonment to estimate the causal effect of incarceration. We find that juvenile incarceration increases the propensity of being convicted for a drug offense in adulthood while it lowers the propensity to be convicted of a property crime. Juvenile incarceration has also a detrimental effect on high school completion for earlier cohorts, but it has no impact on later cohorts.
We study how electoral incentives affect policy choices on secondary issues, which only minorities of voters care intensely about. We develop a model in which office and policy-motivated politicians vote in favor of or against regulations on these issues. We derive conditions under which politicians flip-flop, voting according to their policy preferences at the beginning of their terms but in line with the preferences of single-issue minorities as they approach reelection. To assess the evidence, we study U.S. senators' votes on gun control, the environment, and reproductive rights. In line with the model's predictions, we find that election proximity has a pro-gun effect on Democratic senators and a pro-environment effect on Republican senators; these effects arise for senators who are not retiring, do not hold safe seats, and represent states where the single-issue minority is of intermediate size. Also in line with our theory, election proximity does not affect votes on reproductive rights due to the presence of single-issue minorities on both sides.
We study the impact of targeted price controls on supermarket products in Argentina. Using daily prices for controlled and noncontrolled goods, we examine the effects on inflation, product availability, entry and exit, and price dispersion. First, price controls have only a small and temporary effect on inflation that reverses soon after the controls are lifted. Second, contrary to common belief, controlled goods are consistently available for sale. Third, firms respond by introducing new varieties at higher prices. Overall, our results show that targeted price controls are just as ineffective as more traditional policies of price controls in reducing aggregate inflation.
I examine the source and welfare implications of differences in household consumption diversity. I document the existence of a positive correlation between household variety and expenditure to motivate a simple framework where households purchase more varieties to counteract diminishing returns to quantity but face location-specific costs of accessing variety. Estimating the model with Indian household data, I find that the increase in dietary diversity between 1983 and 2009 was mostly due to lower costs of accessing variety, which resulted in large welfare gains. Urban households also benefit from a lower cost of accessing varieties than rural households.
Nonprofit colleges and universities have merged across the United States citing economies of scale and scope. Yet whether these mergers raise prices has not been empirically assessed. Using a retrospective merger evaluation approach, I estimate that the average merger between 2000 and 2015 increased tuition and fees by 5% to 7% relative to nonmerging institutions in the same state and sector (public or nonprofit). Effects on net prices are estimated imprecisely, but the results are suggestive that nonprofit colleges use mergers to increase price discrimination.
We exploit the principles of choice architecture to evaluate interventions in the market for reloadable prepaid cards. Participants are randomized into three card menu presentation treatments—the market status quo, a regulation-inspired reform, or an enhanced reform designed to minimize attribute overload—and offered choices based on prior structural estimation of individual preferences. Consumers routinely choose incorrectly under the status quo, with tentative evidence that the regulation-inspired presentation may increase best card choice and clear evidence that the enhanced reform reduces worst card choice. Welfare analysis suggests the regulation-inspired presentation offers modest gains, while the enhanced policy generates substantial benefits.
Incentivized experiments are often used to identify the time preferences of households in developing countries. We argue theoretically and empirically that experimental measures may not identify preference parameters, but are a useful tool for understanding financial shocks and constraints. Using data from an experiment in Mali, we find that subject responses vary with savings and financial shocks, meaning they provide information about credit constraints and can be used to test models of risk sharing.
A substantial proportion of individuals who complete the widely used multiple price list (MPL) instrument switch back and forth between the safe and the risky choice columns, behavior that is believed to indicate low-quality decision making. We develop a conceptual framework to formally define decision-making quality, test explanations for the nature of low-quality decision making, and introduce a novel “nudge” treatment that reduced multiple switching behavior and increased decision-making quality. We find evidence in support of task-specific miscomprehension of the MPL and that non-multiple switchers and relatively high-cognitive-ability individuals are not immune to low-quality decision making.
Using administrative tax records for U.K. businesses, we document both bunching in annual turnover below the VAT registration threshold and persistent voluntary registration by almost half of the firms below the threshold. We develop a conceptual framework that can simultaneously explain these two apparently conflicting facts. The framework also predicts that higher intermediate input shares, lower product-market competition, and a lower share of business to consumer sales lead to voluntary registration. The predictions are exactly the opposite for bunching. We test the theory using linked VAT and corporation tax records from 2004 to 2014, finding empirical support for these predictions.
In this paper, we analyze the effect of light conditions on road accidents and estimate the long-run consequences of different time regimes for road safety. Identification is based on variation in light conditions induced by differences in sunrise and sunset times across space and time. We estimate that darkness causes annual costs of more than £500 million in Great Britain. By setting daylight saving time year-round, 8% of these costs could be saved. Thus, focusing solely on the short-run costs related to the transition itself underestimates the total costs of the current time regime.
This paper studies the relationship between immigration and offshoring by examining whether an influx of foreign workers reduces the need for firms to relocate jobs abroad. Using a Danish natural experiment and their employer-employee matched data set covering the universe of workers and firms (1995–2011), our findings show that an exogenous influx of immigrants into a municipality reduces firm-level offshoring at both the extensive and intensive margins. While the multilateral relationship is negative, a subsequent bilateral analysis shows that immigrants have connections in their country of origin that increase the likelihood that firms offshore to that particular foreign country.
This paper documents large revisions in a widely used series of utilization-adjusted total factor productivity (TFP) by Fernald (2014) and shows that these revisions can materially affect empirical results about the effects of news shocks. We trace these revisions to changes in estimated factor utilization that are evocative of cyclical measurement issues with productivity. We propose an alternative identification that is robust to these measurement issues. Applied to U.S. data, the shock predicts delayed productivity growth while simultaneously generating strong responses of novel indicators of technological innovation and forward-looking variables. The shock does not lead to comovement in macroeconomic aggregates.
This paper demonstrates the acute sensitivity of education program effectiveness to the choices of inputs and outcome measures, using a randomized evaluation of a mother-tongue literacy program. The program raises reading scores by 0.64 SD and writing scores by 0.45 SD. A reduced-cost version instead yields statistically insignificant reading gains and some large negative effects (−0.33 SDs) on advanced writing. We combine a conceptual model of education production with detailed classroom observations to examine the mechanisms driving the results; we show they could be driven by the program initially lowering productivity before raising it, and potentially by missing complementary inputs in the reduced-cost version.
This paper examines the effect of the female-to-male wage ratio, “relative wage,” on women's spouse quality, marriage, and labor supply over three decades. Exploiting task-based demand shifts as a shock to relative pay, I find that a higher relative wage (a) increases the quality of women's mates, as measured by higher spousal education; (b) reduces marriage without substitution to cohabitation; and (c) raises women's hours of work. These effects are consistent with a model in which a higher relative wage increases the minimum nonpecuniary benefits (“quality”) women require from a spouse and therefore reduce marriage among low-quality husbands.
This paper estimates the impact of police presence on crime using a unique database that tracks the exact location of Dallas Police Department patrol cars throughout 2009. To address the concern that officer location is often driven by crime, my instrument exploits police responses to calls outside their allocated coverage beat. This variable provides a plausible shift in police presence within the abandoned beat that is driven by the police goal of minimizing response times. I find that a 10% decrease in police presence at that location results in a 7% increase in crime. This result sheds light on the black box of policing and crime and suggests that routine changes in police patrol can have a significant impact on criminal behavior.
Governments in the United States must offer free legal services to low-income people accused of crimes. To provide these services, many jurisdictions rely on assigned counsel systems, where private attorneys represent indigent defendants on a contract basis. These defendants are more likely to be convicted and incarcerated than defendants with privately retained attorneys. Using detailed court records, we investigate the mechanisms behind this disparity and consider their policy implications. We find that adverse selection among lawyers is not the primary contributor to the assigned counsel penalty. We conclude that reform efforts should address moral hazard in assigned counsel systems.
This paper investigates how different forms of exposure to refugees affect voting for Far Right parties. I study the state of Upper Austria where many municipalities hosted asylum seekers and also experienced a massive flow of refugees crossing into Germany in 2015. Exposure to refugees passing through border municipalities increased Far Right votes by about 1.5 percentage points, which suggests that mere exposure can increase Far Right support. Conversely, contact and sustained interactions between natives and asylum seekers in hosting municipalities decreased Far Right votes by about 4 percentage points, which is in line with the intergroup contact theory.
We propose methods of estimating the linear-in-means model of peer effects in which the peer group, defined by a social network, is endogenous in the outcome equation for peer effects. Endogeneity is due to unobservable individual characteristics that influence both link formation in the network and the outcome of interest. We propose two estimators of the peer effect equation that control for the endogeneity of the social connections using a control function approach. We leave the functional form of the control function unspecified, estimate the model using a sieve semiparametric approach and establish asymptotics of the semiparametric estimator.
This paper studies the wild bootstrap–based test proposed in Cameron, Gelbach, and Miller (2008). Existing analyses of its properties require that number of clusters is “large.” In an asymptotic framework in which the number of clusters is “small,” we provide conditions under which an unstudentized version of the test is valid. These conditions include homogeneity-like restrictions on the distribution of covariates. We further establish that a studentized version of the test may only overreject the null hypothesis by a “small” amount that decreases exponentially with the number of clusters. We obtain a qualitatively similar result for “score” bootstrap-based tests, which permit testing in nonlinear models.
This paper analyzes the effect of China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 on structural transformation at the local level, exploiting cross-sectional variation in tariff uncertainty faced by county economies pre-2001. Using a new panel of 1,800 Chinese counties from 1996 to 2013, we find that counties more exposed to the reduction in tariff uncertainty postaccession are characterized by increased exports and foreign direct investment, shrinking agricultural sectors, expanding secondary sectors, and higher total and per capita GDP. In addition, when labor substitutes from nonagricultural to agricultural production in counties exposed to positive trade shocks, agricultural output declines.
We use firm-level data on U.S. multinationals to show how offshoring affects domestic employment within and across firms. We introduce a new instrument for offshoring, bilateral tax treaties, which reduce the cost of offshore activities. We find substantial heterogeneity in effects. A 10% increase in affiliate employment drives a 1.3% increase in employment at the U.S. parent firm, with smaller effects at the industry and regional levels. In contrast, offshoring by vertical multinationals drives declining employment among nonmultinationals in the same industry, and firms opening new affiliates exhibit smaller domestic employment growth than those expanding existing affiliates.
We estimate the effects of political accountability on the selection of politicians when accountability mechanisms are prone to political capture. We compare the characteristics of candidates running in municipalities where the previous incumbent was ousted from office through a recall referendum with those who run where the recall referendum failed by a small margin. Having a recalled incumbent in the previous term causes a negative selection of candidates in terms of their education and previous experience. They are also less representative of indigenous groups. The results are driven by localities where the accountability institution is likely used for political purposes.
This paper shows that formalizing private property rights has a positive effect on the propensity to respect the property of others. We study a recent large-scale land tenure reform in West Africa that was the first of its kind to be implemented as a randomized control trial. Results of a modified dictator game show that the formalization of private property rights reduced an individual's willingness to take from others' endowment. We used additional experimental measures and postexperimental survey data to rule out alternative explanations for the observed behavior that do not imply a change in preferences.
Innovative firms with good ideas may still struggle to fine-tune them to the stage where they can attract outside funding. We conduct a five-country randomized experiment that tests the impact of an investment readiness program. Firms then pitched their ideas to independent judges. The program resulted in a 0.3 standard deviation increase in the investment readiness score. Two years later, the average impacts on firm investment outcomes are positive but small in magnitude and not statistically significant. Larger and statistically significant impacts on receiving outside funding occur for smaller firms and for firms with lower likelihoods of otherwise being funded.
We study how management practices shape export performance using matched production-trade-management data for Chinese and American firms and a randomized control trial in India. Better-managed firms are more likely to export, sell more products to more destinations, and earn higher export revenues and profits. They export higher-quality products at higher prices and lower quality-adjusted prices. They import a wider range of inputs and inputs of higher quality and price, from more advanced countries. We rationalize these patterns with a heterogeneous-firm model in which effective management improves performance by raising production efficiency and quality capacity.
Overloaded electrical systems are a major source of unreliable power. Using a randomized saturation design, we estimate the impact of compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) on electricity reliability and household electricity consumption in the Kyrgyz Republic. Greater saturation of CFLs within a transformer leads to fewer outages, a technological externality benefiting all households, regardless of individual adoption. Spillovers in CFL adoption further reduce electricity consumption, contributing to increased reliability within a transformer. CFLs' impacts on household electricity consumption vary according to the effects on reliability. Receiving CFLs significantly reduces electricity consumption, but increased reliability permits greater consumption of electricity services.
For much of the industrialized world, pollution from manufacturing has been falling despite increased output. We examine how air quality standards---a common environmental regulation---have contributed to this cleanup of manufacturing. We develop a general equilibrium model to show how air quality standards can lead to a cleanup by causing reductions in plant emission intensity, relative changes in plant output, and plant entry and exit. We provide quasi-experimental evidence from Canada to highlight the magnitude of these responses. Our results suggest that air quality standards explain just under 40% of the cleanup of manufacturing.
The collapse of long-term lending relationships amplified the Great Depression.
                    We demonstrate this by developing a new measure of lending relationships that
                    can be calculated from widely available data at any level of aggregation. Our
                    approach exploits differences in the responsiveness of loan rates to bank
                    funding costs and is supported by historical evidence and theoretical arguments.
                    The new measure reveals that the marginal impact of bank suspensions on economic
                    activity was higher in more relationship-intensive areas, providing the first
                    formal evidence that relationship lending propagated the real effects of banking
                    sector distress in the early 1930s.
The relationship between ethnic heterogeneity and economic growth is complex. Empirical research working with cross-country data finds a negative, or statistically insignificant, relationship. However, analysis at the city level finds a positive effect of diversity on wages and productivity. Generally there is a trade-off between the economic benefits of diversity and the costs of heterogeneity. Using cells of fixed size, we find that the relationship between diversity and growth is positive for small geographical areas. In the case of Africa, we argue that the explanation is the increase in trade at the boundaries between ethnic groups due to ethnic specialization.
This paper examines two behavioral factors that diminish people's ability to value a lifetime income stream or annuity, drawing on a randomized experiment with about 4,000 adults in a U.S. nationally representative sample. We find that increasing the complexity of the annuity choice reduces respondents' ability to value the annuity, measured by the difference between the sell and buy values they assign to the annuity. When we limit narrow choice bracketing by inducing people to think first about how quickly or slowly to spend down assets in retirement, their ability to value an annuity increases.
Security measures that deter crime may unwittingly displace it to neighboring areas, but evidence of displacement is scarce. We exploit precise information on the timing and locations of all Italian bank robberies and security guard hirings over a decade to estimate deterrence and displacement effects of guards. A guard lowers the likelihood a bank is robbed by 35% to 40%. Over half of this reduction is displaced to nearby unguarded banks. Theory suggests optimal policy to mitigate this spillover is ambiguous. Our findings indicate restricting guards in sparse, rural markets and requiring guards in dense, urban markets could be socially beneficial.
We investigate whether improvements in street-food safety can be achieved by providing information to vendors in the form of a training. Among randomly assigned vendors in Kolkata, India, we find large improvements in knowledge and awareness but little change in observed behavior. We provide two main explanations for these findings. First, information acquisition by itself does not make it significantly easier for vendors to provide customers with safer food options. Second, although consumers have a positive willingness to pay for perceived hygiene, they struggle to distinguish between safe and contaminated food. We recommend policies targeting supply-side constraints and consumers' awareness.
Evaluating a new survey of German consumers, we test whether individual consumption spending decisions are formed according to a Euler equation model. We find that consumers are more likely to increase current spending if they plan to increase spending in the future and if they expect higher inflation. In the subsample of financially literate households, we find an additional negative effect of nominal interest rate expectations. The effects of macroeconomic expectations become stronger if consumers observed news on monetary policy or financial markets. These news effects are particularly pronounced for consumers who save and those with low inflation forecast accuracy.
Networks may rewire in response to interventions. We propose a measure of the treatment effect when an intervention affects the structure of a social network. We develop a treatment-response model that incorporates dynamic peer effects and provide its identification conditions and the associated instrumental-variable strategy. We illustrate our estimation procedure using a panel data set containing information on a financial network before and after a field experiment that randomized access to savings accounts. Results show that neglecting the network change results in underestimation of the impact of the intervention and the role played by informal networks through which the intervention diffuses.
Combining click data from a Swedish newspaper and administrative data on asylum seekers in Sweden, I examine whether a larger presence of refugees in a municipality induces people to avoid news that may encourage welcoming the newcomers. Exploiting the unexpected inflow of refugees to Sweden during 2015 and their exogenous allocation across Swedish municipalities, I find that people living in municipalities where the relative number of refugees is larger read fewer articles about asylum seekers. The decrease in clicks is 36% larger for more empathic articles and is correlated with less engagement in activities aimed at welcoming refugees.
Many countries are reallocating tasks and powers to more central levels of government. To identify centralization's welfare effects, I use a difference-in-differences design that relies on time and cross-cantonal variations in the implementation of centralization reforms in Switzerland. I find that centralization provokes significant decreases in residents' life satisfaction. I identify one mechanism driving the effect: the procedural disutility that individuals experience from having less influence over the formulation of political decisions. This effect is largest among individuals with higher expected benefits from being involved in the political decision process, with detrimental effects on local political participation.
Tax enforcement is especially costly when market participants are difficult to observe. The benefits of enforcement depend crucially on pre-enforcement compliance. We derive an upper bound on pre-enforcement compliance from the pass-through of newly enforced taxes. Using data on Airbnb listings and the platform's voluntary collection agreements, we find that taxes are paid on, at most, 24% of Airbnb transactions prior to enforcement. We also find that demand for Airbnb listings is inelastic, driving three key insights: the tax burden falls disproportionately on renters, the excess burden is small, and tax enforcement is relatively ineffective at reducing local Airbnb activity.
We study the causal relationship between geographic connectedness and development using one of the earliest massive trade expansions: the first systematic crossing of open seas in the Mediterranean during the time of the Phoenicians. We construct a geography-based measure of connectedness along the shores of the sea. We relate connectedness to economic activity, which we measure using the presence of archaeological sites. We find an association between better-connected locations and archaeological sites during the Iron Age, at a time when sailors began to cross open water routinely on a large scale. We corroborate these findings at the world level.
Behind many production function estimators lies a crucial assumption that the firm's choice of intermediate inputs depends only on observed choices of other inputs and on unobserved productivity. This assumption fails when market frictions distort the firm's input choices. I derive a test for the assumption, which is rejected in several industries. Using weak identification asymptotics, I show that when the assumption fails, a simplified dynamic panel estimator can be used instead of choice-based methods because it requires choices to be distorted. I propose criteria for choosing between estimators, which in simulations yield lower error than either estimator alone.
Inadequate learning is an oft-cited friction impeding the adoption of improved agricultural technology in the developing world. We provide experimental evidence that farmer field days, an approach used throughout the world where farmers meet, learn about new technology, and observe its performance, alleviate learning frictions and increase adoption of an improved seed by 40%. Further analysis demonstrates that these field days are both cost-effective and have a greater impact on poorer farmers. In contrast, we find no evidence that selecting the first adopters of new technology in participatory village meetings has any effect on future adoption.
This study considers the experience of China's one-child policy to examine how fertility restrictions affect economic and social outcomes over a lifetime. Using variations in these penalties across provinces and over time, we find that exposure to stricter fertility restrictions when young leads to higher education levels, more white-collar jobs, delayed marriage, and lower fertility rates. Further consequences include lower rates of residing with the elderly and higher household income, consumption, and savings. Finally, exposure to stricter fertility restrictions in early life increases female empowerment. Overall, fertility restrictions imposed when people are young have powerful effects throughout their life cycle.
This study investigates the relationship between credit availability and household consumption using a novel approach to separate credit demand and supply. We find that a deterioration in local-bank health reduces household consumption, with the strongest effects occurring for households that are more likely to need credit—especially those experiencing a negative income shock and having limited liquid assets. The main contributions of the study are the use of an arguably exogenous measure of local-bank health and multifaceted indicators of constrained households. Our findings contribute to the discussion of the linkages between the financial sector and real economic activity.
We consider whether hospital acquisitions of physicians lead to improved clinical outcomes for Medicare patients aged 65 and older. The analysis combines 2005–2012 Medicare fee-for-service and enrollment data with merger and physician affiliation information from the Levin Reports and SK&A, respectively. We determine the effect of acquisitions on several health outcomes: mortality, acute myocardial infarctions, acute circulatory conditions, ischemic heart disease, glaucoma, symptomatic diabetes complications, and asymptomatic diabetes complications. These outcomes represent the progression of hypertension and diabetes into worse health states. Our results indicate that hospital acquisitions of existing physician practices have little effect on the health outcomes we consider.
We estimate how the mortality effects of temperature vary across U.S. climate regions to assess local and national damages from projected climate change. Using 22 years of Medicare data, we find that both cold and hot days increase mortality. However, hot days are less deadly in warm places while cold days are less deadly in cool places. Incorporating this heterogeneity into end-of-century climate change assessments reverses the conventional wisdom on climate damage incidence: cold places bear more, not less, of the mortality burden. Allowing places to adapt to their future climate substantially reduces the estimated mortality effects of climate change.
This paper considers the impact of the minimum wage on both labor and product markets using detailed store-level scanner data. I provide empirical evidence that a 10% increase in the minimum wage raises grocery store prices by 0.6% to 0.8% and suggest that the minimum wage not only raises labor costs but also affects product demand, especially in poorer regions. This points to novel channels of heterogeneity in pass-through that have distributional consequences, with key implications for real wage inequality. I also find that price rigidity within retail chains ameliorates these effects, reducing the pass-through elasticity for retail prices by about 60%.
This paper examines the impact of manufacturing employment decline on the socioeconomic outcomes within and between black and white Americans since 1960. The analysis shows that manufacturing decline had a negative impact on blacks in terms of their wages, employment, marriage rates, house values, poverty rates, death rates, single parenthood, teen motherhood, child poverty, and child mortality. In addition, the decline in manufacturing increased inequality within the black community for wages and other outcomes. Similar patterns are found for whites, but to a lesser degree—leading to larger gaps between whites and blacks in wages, marriage patterns, poverty, single-parenthood, and death rates.
We study career concerns in Italian academia. We mold our empirical analysis on the standard model of contests, formalized in the multiunit all-pay auction. The number of posts, the number of applicants, and the relative importance of the criteria for promotion determine academics' effort and output. In Italian universities, incentives operate only through promotion, and all appointment panels are drawn from strictly separated and relatively narrow scientific sectors. Thus, the parameters affecting payoffs can be measured quite precisely, and we take the model to a newly constructed data set that collects the journal publications of all Italian university professors. Our identification strategy is based on a reform introduced in 1999, parts of which affected different academics differently. We find that individual researchers respond to incentives in the manner described by the theoretical model: roughly, more capable researchers respond to increases in the importance of the publications for promotion and in the competitiveness of the scientific sector by exerting more effort; less able researchers are discouraged by competition and do the opposite.
Governments around the world use short-term reelection strategies. This is problematic if governments can maximize their reelection chances by prioritizing short-term spending before an election over long-term reforms. This paper tests whether longer program exposure has a causal effect on election outcomes in the context of a large antipoverty program in India. Using a regression-discontinuity framework, the results show that length of program exposure lowers electoral support for the government. The paper discusses a couple of potential explanations, finding that the most plausible mechanism is that voters hold the government accountable for the program's implementation quality.
We present experimental evidence on the impact of the use of double-fortified salt in school meals on anemia, cognition, and the learning outcomes of primary school children in rural Bihar, one of the poorest regions of India. We find that a year-long intervention had statistically significant positive impacts on hemoglobin levels and reduced anemia by 20%; however, these health gains did not translate into significant impacts on cognitive performance, test scores, and school attendance. Treatment effects on anemia and test scores were larger for children with higher school attendance. The findings indicate that school-based health interventions are a cost-effective and scalable approach for reducing anemia among school children in resource-constrained countries.
Self-control problems constitute a potential explanation for the underinvestment in preventive health in low-income countries. Behavioral economics offers a tool to solve such problems: commitment devices. We conduct a field experiment to evaluate the effectiveness of different types of theoretically motivated commitment contracts in increasing preventive doctor visits by hypertensive patients in rural India. Despite achieving high take-up of such contracts in some treatment arms, we find no effects on actual doctor visits or individual health outcomes. A substantial number of individuals pay for commitment but fail to follow through on the doctor visit, losing money without experiencing health benefits. We develop and structurally estimate a prespecified model of consumer behavior under present bias with varying levels of naiveté. The results are consistent with a large share of individuals being partially naive about their own self-control problems: sophisticated enough to demand some commitment but overly optimistic about whether a given level of commitment is sufficiently strong to be effective. The results suggest that commitment devices may in practice be welfare diminishing, at least in some contexts, and serve as a cautionary tale about their role in health care.
We examine the role of an online reputation mechanism in international trade by exploring T-shirt exports on Alibaba. Exploiting rich transaction data and features of search and rating algorithms, we show that exporters displaying a superior reputation perform significantly better than peers with nearly identical true ratings and observables, and the value of reputation rises with the level of information friction and the specificity of information. We develop a dynamic reputation model with heterogeneous cross-country information friction to quantify the effect of the reputation mechanism and find a 20% increase in aggregate exports fueled by a market reallocation towards superstars.
We document how demand shocks in export markets lead French multiproduct exporters to reallocate the mix of products sold in those destinations. In response to positive demand shocks, French firms skew their export sales toward their best-performing products. We develop a theoretical model of multiproduct firms and derive the specific demand conditions (with endogenous price elasticities) needed to generate these product-mix reallocations. Under those demand conditions, the increased competition from demand shocks in export markets also induces productivity changes within the firm. We empirically test for this connection between demand shocks and the productivity of multiproduct firms. We find that this connection is economically substantial.
This paper finds that capital and labor incomes in the United States have become more closely associated since the 1980s. This has contributed to the well-known increase in the top 1% share of total income, exacerbating rising inequality in capital incomes and earnings. We show that the trend in the association is U-shaped as the recent increase contrasts with a tendency toward a weakening association until the 1980s. The paper, using data derived from tax records, studies the asymmetries in the association and tests for robustness to alternative income definitions, including the role of income from closely held businesses at the top.
This paper proposes a two-step procedure in order to identify belief shocks—shocks to expectations about the current state of the economy. First, we use the Survey of Professional Forecasters to measure nowcast errors about contemporaneous output growth. Second, we extract belief shocks from nowcast errors, once by regressing them on existing measures of structural shocks and once by imposing sign restrictions on a VAR model. Using both approaches, we find that belief shocks trigger similar adjustment dynamics and a high degree of co-movement across macroeconomic variables. Belief shocks account for about onethird of short-run output fluctuations.
This study assesses a new mechanism, the deposit channel, in the transmission of interest rate shock to household consumption using an administrative panel data set of financial transactions for Turkey. Our empirical strategy exploits variation in consumers' adherence to the Islamic laws that forbid earning interest and employs a standard difference-in-difference design. Following an unanticipated announcement of interest rate hike, rate-sensitive consumers significantly reduce their overall spending, and the response persists throughout the post-announcement period. The response of debt payment, disparate exposure to inflation, exchange rate, and the demographic difference can hardly fully account for the documented consumption response heterogeneity.
Evidence on the effectiveness of foreign exchange (FX) interventions is either limited to short horizons or hampered by debatable identification. We address these limitations by identifying a structural vector autoregressive model for the daily frequency with an external instrument. Generally we find, for freely floating currencies, that FX intervention shocks significantly affect exchange rates and that this impact persists for months. The signaling channel dominates the portfolio channel. Moreover, interest rates tend to fall in response to sales of the domestic currency, whereas stock prices of large (exporting) firms increase after devaluation of the domestic currency.
How do barriers to the diffusion of academic research affect innovation? In 2008, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) mandated free online availability of funded research. This policy caused a 50 percentage point increase in free access to funded articles. We introduce a novel measure, in-text patent citations, to study how this mandate affected industry use of academic science. After 2008, patents cite NIH-funded research 12% to 27% more often. Nonfunded research, funded research in journals unaffected by the mandate, and academic citations see no change. These estimates are consistent with a model of search for useful knowledge. Inefficiency caused by academic publishing may be substantial.
We provide one of the first systematic assessments of the development and
                    determinants of economic anxiety at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. Using
                    a global data set on internet searches and two representative surveys from the
                    United States, we document a substantial increase in economic anxiety during and
                    after the arrival of the coronavirus. We also document a large dispersion in
                    beliefs about the pandemic risk factors of the coronavirus and demonstrate that
                    these beliefs causally affect individuals' economic anxieties. Finally,
                    we show that individuals' mental models of infectious disease spread
                    understate nonlinear growth and shape the extent of economic anxiety.
We use the high-frequency, decentralized implementation of stay-at-home (SAH) orders in the United States to disentangle the labor market effects of SAH orders from the general economic disruption wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that each week of SAH exposure increased a state's weekly initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims by 1.9% of its employment level relative to other states. A back-of-the-envelope calculation implies that of the 17 million UI claims between March 14 and April 4, only 4 million were attributable to SAH orders. We present a currency union model to provide conditions for mapping this estimate to aggregate employment losses.
We survey a representative sample of U.S. households to study how exposure to the COVID-19 stock market crash affects expectations and planned behavior. Wealth shocks are associated with upward adjustments of expectations about retirement age, desired working hours, and household debt but have only small effects on expected spending. We provide correlational and experimental evidence that beliefs about the duration of the stock market recovery shape households' expectations about their own wealth and their planned investment decisions and labor market activity. Our findings shed light on the implications of household exposure to stock market crashes for expectation formation.
We investigate the effects of early-life medical treatments on the treated children and their families. We use a regression discontinuity design that exploits changes in medical treatments across the very low birth weight (VLBW) cutoff. Using administrative data from Denmark, we establish that VLBW children have better health and higher test scores. We find that these benefits spill over to other family members: mothers enjoy better mental health, and siblings have higher test scores. Maternal mental health improvements seem to be driven by better focal child health and sibling spillovers by improved interactions within the family and parental compensating behavior.
Default effects are pervasive, but the reason they arise is often unclear. We study optimal policy when the planner does not know whether an observed default effect reflects a welfare-relevant preference or a mistake. Within a broad class of models, we find that determining optimal policy is impossible without resolving this ambiguity. Depending on the resolution, optimal policy tends in opposite directions: either minimizing the number of nondefault choices or inducing active choice. We show how these considerations depend on whether active choosers make mistakes when selecting among nondefault options. We illustrate our results using data on pension contribution defaults.
I study how supplier contracting frictions shape the patterns of intermediate input use and quantify the impact of these distortions on aggregate productivity. Using the frequency of litigation between US firms as a novel measure to capture the need for formal enforcement, I find a robust relationship between countries' input-output structure and their quality of legal institutions. In countries with high enforcement costs, firms have lower expenditure shares on intermediate inputs in sector pairs where US firms litigate frequently for breach of contract. A quantitative model shows that improvement of contract enforcement institutions would lead to sizable welfare gains.
What do patents tell us about the economic effects of future technological improvements? We identify aggregate and industry-level patent-based news shocks by exploiting changes in stock market valuations of firms that obtain patent grants. Our shocks resemble diffusion news: they do not affect total factor productivity in the short run but induce a strong permanent effect after five years. We find that patent-based news shocks produce positive co-movement between consumption, output, investment, and hours. They also generate positive responses in inflation and in the federal funds rate, consistent with standard New Keynesian models.
Economists have long been intrigued by an influential literature in psychology positing that monetary pay lowers performance on enjoyable tasks by crowding out agents' intrinsic interest in them. But typical experiments in this literature do not report a full set of performance metrics, which might reveal conflicting evidence on crowding out. Further, they may suffer from confounds. To evaluate these issues, we review over 100 prior tests and run a field experiment building on the canonical two-session test for crowding out wherein agents receive pay for an interesting activity in session 1 that is withdrawn unexpectedly in session 2. We test whether pay harms performance using a comprehensive set of performance measures, and if so, whether unmet pay expectations might also contribute to this decline. Our results on output, productivity and quits are most consistent with a standard economics model than with a crowding-out one. Additional, though more speculative, evidence suggests that unmet pay expectations may harm output quality.
Exogenous shifts in international food commodity prices, which are identified using an SVAR model with global harvest shocks as an external instrument, explain almost 30% of euro-area inflation volatility over the medium term and contributed significantly to the twin puzzle of missing (dis)inflation in the era after the Great Recession. International food price shocks have an impact on food retail prices through the food production chain, but also trigger indirect inflationary effects via a depreciation of the euro and, most important, rising wages. Finally, due to asymmetric wage responses, the inflationary effects are very different across member states.
We study productivity differences in vertically integrated steel facilities using equipment-level information on inputs and output for each of the main stages in the value chain. We obtain stage-level productivity estimates by estimating a multistage production system and then integrate them into estimates for integrated facilities. At this level, we do not find statistically significant differences in productivity by ownership. This conceals important differences upstream and downstream in the value chain: private firms outperform in pig iron and steelmaking but lag in sintering. Inferior access to higher-quality raw materials and use of less automated technology are likely sources of these differences.
We examine two Pakistani programs to see if the public disclosure of tax information and social recognition of top taxpayers promotes tax compliance. Pakistan began revealing income tax paid by all taxpayers in 2012. Simultaneously, another program began recognizing and rewarding the top 100 tax- paying corporations, partnerships, self-employed individuals, and wage earners. We find that the public disclosure caused an increase of 9 log points and the social recognition program 17 log points in the tax payments of agents exposed to the program. Our results suggest that such programs can be important policy levers to mobilize additional resources.
We estimate the causal impact of military conscription on long-term beliefs and personality traits. To address potential endogeneity concerns, we exploit the conscription lottery in Argentina. We combine administrative data from the conscription lottery with data from a survey we designed on beliefs and personality traits. We find that men who were conscripted are more likely to adopt a military mind-set and that the effect is long lasting. Given the many people who go through military conscription, our results are useful for understanding how personality traits and beliefs are formed for a very salient part of the world's population.
We study the investment of organized crime in the legal economy. By using the shock induced on the Italian credit market by the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis, we document how provinces with a high organized crime presence have been affected less by the crisis in terms of the establishment of new enterprises than provinces with a lower criminal infiltration. We provide evidence that the lower impact of the crisis is consistent with the presence of investments by organized crime in the legal economy. We corroborate this interpretation by comparing our results with the characterization made by the judicial authority of such investments.
We study the impact of money on households during the COVID-19 pandemic. In March 2020, Colombia rolled out a new unconditional cash transfer (UCT) to 1 million households in poverty worth US$19 (PPP US$55.6) and paid every five to eight weeks. Using a randomized control trial and linked administrative and survey data, we find the UCT had positive (albeit modest) effects on measures of household well-being (e.g., financial health, food access). Moreover, the UCT boosted support for emergency assistance to households and firms during the crisis and promoted social cooperation. Finally, we explore the bottlenecks in expanding mobile money during a pandemic.
South Korea publicly disclosed detailed location information of individuals who tested positive for COVID-19. We quantify the effect of public disclosure on the transmission of the virus and economic losses in Seoul. The change in commuting patterns due to public disclosure lowers the number of cases by 60,000 and the number of deaths by 2,000 in Seoul over two years. Compared to a city-wide lockdown that results in the same number of cases over two years as the disclosure scenario, the economic cost of such a lockdown is almost four times higher.
We estimate the effect of the 1918 influenza pandemic on income inequality in Italian municipalities. Our identification strategy exploits the exogenous diffusion of influenza across municipalities due to the presence of infected soldiers on leave from World War I operations. The measures of income inequality come from newly digitized historical administrative records on taxpayer incomes. We show that in the short and medium run, income inequality is higher in municipalities more afflicted by the pandemic. The effect is mostly explained by an increase in the share of income held by the rich to the detriment of the other strata of the population.
This paper estimates the effect on innovation of increased market access facilitated by trade liberalization. We use a novel empirical design that exploits tariff cuts during the 1990s, along with detailed data on innovation among firms from 65 countries. Our results reveal a large effect of tariff cuts on innovation as measured by patent data, suggesting that multilateral liberalization has promoted innovation and growth. These effects are not driven by the deterioration of innovation quality, and the results are robust to controlling for changes in the patent system and to industry-wide trends in innovation.
We study a dynamic game in which players compete for a prize. In a waiting game with two-sided private information about strength levels, players choose fighting, fleeing, or waiting. Players earn a “deterrence value” on top of the prize if their opponent escapes without a battle. We show that this value is a key determinant of the type of equilibrium. For intermediate values, sorting takes place, with weaker players fleeing before others fight. Time then helps to reduce battles. In an experiment, we find support for the key theoretical predictions and document suboptimal predatory fighting.
We evaluate electronic monitoring as an alternative to prison for nonviolent offenses. Leveraging plausibly exogenous variation in sentencing outcomes generated by quasi-random assignment of judges, we find electronic monitoring reduces reoffending at both extensive and intensive margins. Compared with prison, electronic monitoring is estimated to reduce the probability of reoffending by 22 percentage points five years after sentencing and by 11 percentage points ten years after sentencing, with the cumulative number of offenses reduced by 40% ten years after sentencing. These results demonstrate that electronic monitoring has sustained crime-reducing effects.
Since the Great Recession in 2007–2009, U.S. real GDP has failed to return to its previously projected path, a phenomenon widely associated with secular stagnation. We investigate whether this stagnation was due to hysteresis effects from the Great Recession, a persistent negative output gap following the recession, or slower trend growth for other reasons. To do so, we develop a new Markov-switching time series model of output growth that accommodates two different types of recessions: those that permanently alter the level of real GDP and those with only temporary effects. We also account for structural change in trend growth. Estimates from our model suggest that the Great Recession generated a large, persistent negative output gap rather than any substantial hysteresis effects, with the economy eventually recovering to a lower trend path that appears to be due to a reduction in productivity growth that began prior to the onset of the Great Recession.
We explore how team gender composition affects willingness to lead by randomly assigning participants in an experiment to male- or female-majority teams. Irrespective of team gender composition, men are substantially more willing than women to lead their team. The pooled sample, and women separately, are more willing to lead female- than male-majority teams. An analysis of mechanisms reveals that a large share of the negative effect of male-majority teams on women's leadership aspirations is accounted for by a negative effect on women's confidence, influence, and expected support from team members.
This paper shows that venture capital investment in start-ups increases innovation of established companies in technologically related fields due to knowledge spillovers. To address endogeneity issues, we instrument R&D expenditures of established companies with state-level R&D tax credits (Bloom, Schankerman, & Van Reenen, 2013) and venture capital investment with past fundraising of private equity buyout funds (Nanda & Rhodes-Kropf, 2013). Exploring the mechanism, we show that the patents of VC-financed start-ups are on average of higher quality, more novel, and less protected by intellectual property rights than those of established firms, leading to significantly larger spillovers. This knowledge transfer between companies is enhanced by mobile start-up inventors.
Using daily consumer survey data, we analyze the transmission of gas prices to consumer beliefs and expectations about the economy. We exploit the high frequency and geographic disaggregation of our data set to facilitate identification. Consumer sentiment becomes more pessimistic with rising gas prices. This effect is strongest for consumers who lived through the recessionary oil crises in the 1970s, consistent with models of learning from personal experience. For younger respondents, the sensitivity of sentiment to gas prices is stronger for college-educated respondents. Sensitivity is also higher in states with greater gas expenditures per capita.
We introduce a new mobile money interface that permits Sri Lankans to deposit mobile airtime balances directly into a formal bank account. Randomizing access and prices, we find a small increase in savings deposits with the partner institution and formal banks more generally, but no change in overall savings. When the deposit transaction costs are completely removed, only 26% use the mobile deposit service and only 7% use it frequently. Our results imply that deposit transaction costs are not a significant barrier to increasing savings, limiting the potential gains of mobile-linked savings products for financial inclusion.
This paper evaluates the effects of encouraging the selection of local politicians in India via community consensus, as opposed to a secret ballot election. Using village-level data on candidates, elected politicians, government budgets, and workfare employment, I show that incentives for consensus elections lead to politicians who are more educated but less likely to be drawn from historically marginalized castes and increase how regressively workfare employment is targeted. These results are supported by qualitative evidence that shows that consensus elections are prone to capture by the local elite, which may reduce the need for clientelistic transfers to the non-elite.
I leverage the staggered rollout of VAT in Pakistan to document the role of withholding mechanism in the self-enforcement of a VAT. Focusing on firms already in the tax net, I see how their outcomes respond when the tax is extended upward to intermediates used by them. I find that the upward extension of VAT, which triggers the withholding mechanism, causes an immediate and large (more than 40 log points) surge in sales reported by firms. The evolution of bunching above the zero-liability point and of input costs reported by firms suggests that this large response is indeed driven by the withholding mechanism. I also explore the role of withholding in the extensive margin compliance choices of firms.
This paper introduces a structural model for the coevolution of networks and behavior. We characterize the equilibrium of the underlying game and adopt the Bayesian Double Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to estimate the model. We further extend the model to incorporate unobserved heterogeneity and show that ignoring this heterogeneity can lead to biased estimates in simulation experiments. We apply the model to study R&D investment and collaboration decisions in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry and find a positive knowledge spillover effect. Our model also provides a tractable framework for a long-run key player analysis.
Individualism has long been linked to economic growth. Using the COVID-19 pandemic, we show that such a culture can hamper the economy's response to crises, a period with heightened coordination frictions. Exploiting variation in U.S. counties' frontier experience, we show that more individualistic counties engage less in social distancing and charitable transfers and are less willing to receive COVID-19 vaccines. The effect of individualism is stronger where social distancing has higher externality and holds at the individual level when we exploit migrants for identification. Our results suggest that individualism can exacerbate collective action problems during economic downturns.
Job insecurity can have wide-ranging consequences outside of the labor market. A 1999 rise in the French layoff tax paid by large private firms when they laid off older workers made younger workers less secure; this insecurity reduced their fertility by 3.7 percentage points (with a 95% confidence interval between 0.7 and 6.6 percentage points). Reduced fertility is found only at the intensive margin: job insecurity reduces family size but not the probability of parenthood itself. Our results also suggest negative selection into parenthood, as this fertility effect does not appear for low-income and less-educated workers.
We evaluate a program that recruited local entrepreneurs to open and operate new schools in 200 underserved villages in Sindh, Pakistan. School operators received a per student subsidy to provide tuition-free primary education, and half the villages received a higher subsidy for females. The program increased enrollment by 32 percentage points and test scores by 0.63 standard deviations, with no difference across the two subsidy schemes. Estimating a structural model of the demand and supply for school inputs, we find that program schools selected inputs similar to those of a social planner who internalizes all the education benefits to society.
We document measurable, lasting gains in student achievement caused by a change in teachers' evaluation incentives. A short-lived rule created a discontinuity in teachers' incentives when allocating effort across their assigned students: students who failed an initial end-of-year test were retested a few weeks later, and then only the higher of the two scores was used when calculating the teacher's evaluation score. One year later, long after the discontinuity in incentives had ended, retested students scored 0.03σ higher than nonretested students. Otherwise identical students were treated differently by teachers because of evaluation incentives, despite arguably equal returns to teacher effort.
This paper studies the link between self-image and behavior among those who face stigma due to poverty and social exclusion. Using a randomized field experiment with sex workers in Kolkata (India), we examine whether a psychological intervention to mitigate adverse effects of internalized stigma can induce behavior change. We find significant improvements in participants' self-image, their savings choices, and health clinic visits. Administrative data confirm that these changes in savings and preventive health behavior persist 15 and 21 months later, respectively. Our findings highlight the potential of purely psychological interventions to improve the life choices and outcomes of marginalized groups.
This paper shows the causal relationship between mutual religious association and the formation of social ties. We analyze dyadic relationships and show that joint attendance at a religious institution (RI) increases the probability of sharing information with and trusting a peer. We use a novel spatial instrumental variable strategy that combines insights from homestead inheritance institutions with triangular distances between peers and RI locations within villages in Kenya. We find that shared attendance at an RI increases the likelihood of receiving advice from a peer by 30 percentage points, demonstrating the strong impact of weak ties formed through social spaces.
In 1978, California adopted building codes designed to reduce the energy used for temperature control. Using a rich data set of hourly electricity consumption for 158,112 houses in Sacramento, we estimate that the average house built just after 1978 uses 8% to 13% less electricity for cooling than a similar house built just before 1978. Comparing the estimated savings to the policy's projected cost, our results suggest the policy passes a cost-benefit test. In settings where market failures prevent energy costs from being completely passed through to home prices, building codes can serve as a cost- effective tool for improving energy efficiency.
Applied work often studies the effect of a binary variable (“treatment”) using linear models with additive effects. I study the interpretation of the OLS estimands in such models when treatment effects are heterogeneous. I show that the treatment coefficient is a convex combination of two parameters, which under certain conditions can be interpreted as the average treatment effects on the treated and untreated. The weights on these parameters are inversely related to the proportion of observations in each group. Reliance on these implicit weights can have serious consequences for applied work, as I illustrate with two well-known applications. I develop simple diagnostic tools that empirical researchers can use to avoid potential biases. Software for implementing these methods is available in R and Stata. In an important special case, my diagnostics require only the knowledge of the proportion of treated units.
Identification via heteroskedasticity exploits variance changes between regimes to identify parameters in simultaneous equations. Weak identification occurs when shock variances change very little or multiple variances change close to proportionally, making standard inference unreliable. I propose an F-test for weak identification in a common simple version of the model. More generally, I establish conditions for validity of nonconservative robust inference on subsets of the parameters, which can be used to test for weak identification. I study monetary policy shocks identified using heteroskedasticity in high-frequency data. I detect weak identification, invalidating standard inference, in daily data, while intraday data provide strong identification.
We study the effects of prenatal exposure to violent crime on infant health, using New York City crime records linked to mothers' addresses in birth records data. We address endogeneity of assault exposure with three strategies and find that in utero assault exposure significantly increases the incidence of adverse birth outcomes. We calculate that the annual social cost of assault during pregnancy in the United States is more than $3.8 billion. Since infant health predicts long-term wellbeing and disadvantaged women are disproportionately likely to be domestic abuse victims, violence in utero may be an important channel for intergenerational transmission of inequality.
In this study, we conduct a stated-choice experiment to analyze the decision to contribute to either a front- or back-loaded tax-preferred retirement savings account. Our experimental design includes a randomized financial education intervention that provides information on the tax implications of both types of account. Respondents who were exposed to the intervention have greater knowledge of these accounts and make contribution choices that increase their after-tax income. Using a well-defined benchmark, we show that on average, respondents who experienced the intervention increase their discounted welfare by about 4% of their contribution amount.
While episodes of financial distress are followed by large and persistent drops in economic activity, structural time series analyses point to relatively mild and transitory effects of financial market disruptions. We argue that these seemingly contradictory findings are due to the asymmetric effects of financial shocks, which have been predicted theoretically but not taken into account empirically. We estimate a model designed to identify the (possibly asymmetric) effects of financial market disruptions, and we find that a favorable financial shock—an easing of financial conditions—has little effect on output, but an adverse shock has large and persistent effects. In a counterfactual exercise, we find that over two-thirds of the gap between current US GDP and its 207 precrisis trend was caused by the 2007–2008 financial shocks.
Pharmaceutical firms enjoy market exclusivity for new drugs from concurrent patent protection and exclusivity of the clinical trials data submitted for market approval. Patent invalidation during drug development renders data exclusivity the sole source of protection and shifts the period of market exclusivity. In instrumental variables regressions, we quantify the effect of a one-year reduction in expected market exclusivity on the likelihood of drug commercialization. The effect is largely driven by patent invalidations early in the drug development process and by the responses of large originators. We provide estimates of the responsiveness of R&D investments to market exclusivity expectations.
Abstract
					This paper investigates the proximate causes of excessively cyclical employment growth and persistently high unemployment among Black workers, relative to White workers. Using data from the Quarterly Workforce Indicators and Job-to-Job Flows, we find that the concentration of Black workers in highly cyclical industries cannot account for the excess cyclicality; rather, Black employment tends to be more volatile regardless of industry. The high level and excessive cyclicality of unemployment among Blacks compared to Whites can be traced to lower job finding rates overall and higher and more cyclical separation rates in most industries.
In light of the debate over inclusive education, this paper evaluates the impact of exposure to special needs (SN) peers. More classroom peers with SN lower performance, the probability of entering postcompulsory education, and income at ages 17 to 25. SN students and students at the lower end of the achievement distribution suffer most from higher inclusion. We analyze the effects of reallocation policies to alleviate negative externalities, and demonstrate that inclusion is preferable to segregation in terms of maximizing average test scores.
We use exogenously assigned general practitioners to study the effects of female role models on girls' educational outcomes. Girls who are exposed to female general practitioners are more likely to sort into male-dominated education programs in high school, most notably science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and medicine (STEMM). These effects persist as they enter college and select majors. The effects are larger for high-ability girls with low-educated mothers, suggesting that female role models improve intergenerational mobility and narrow the gifted gap. This demonstrates that role model effects in education need not involve individuals in the classroom but can arise due to everyday interactions with medical professionals.
As in other OECD countries, women in New Zealand earn substantially less than men with similar observable characteristics. In this paper, we use fifteen years of linked employer-employee data to examine different explanations for this gender wage gap. We find an overall gender wage gap between 20% and 28%, of which gender differences in sorting across occupations explain 9%, across industries 16% to 19%, and across firms 5% to 9%, respectively. The remaining within-firm gender wage gap is still between 13% and 17%. Around 5 percentage points of this are explained by women being less willing to bargain or less successful at bargaining to capture firm-specific rents. Gender differences in productivity also explain at most 4.5 percentage points of this remaining gap. These results suggest that taste discrimination is also important for explaining why women are paid less than their relative contribution to firm output. Across-industry and over-time variation in the gender wage-productivity gap further support this conclusion.
This paper shows robust effects of trade shocks on within-firm wage inequality through changes in firm hierarchies. It uses two distinct research designs—one considering firm-level shocks to foreign demand and transportation costs, the other analyzing the Muslim boycott of Danish exports after the 2006 “cartoon crisis.” Consistent with knowledge-based and incentive-based hierarchy models, trade shocks affect organizational choices through production scale. Adding a hierarchy layer increases inequality throughout the organization, particularly widening the 90-50 wage gap and pay differences between top and bottom layers. Delayering after the boycott leads to wage compression through wage cuts, demotions, and employee turnover.
Sectoral heterogeneity matters for monetary policy. Using CPI microdata, we estimate for 227 products a time-varying menu-cost model to investigate the quantitative relevance of this heterogeneity. We find a substantial degree of cross-sectoral heterogeneity in all structural parameters. Heterogeneity in the Calvo component of the pricing friction is, however, the main source of heterogeneity in price rigidity. Cross-sectoral heterogeneity amplifies the output effect of a monetary shock by a factor of about 2.5, compared to a single-sector model estimated with mean moments. Heterogeneity in the Calvo parameter plays a key role in this amplification.
We develop a medium-size semistructural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view, often expressed by central banks, that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a Phillips curve, and temporary fluctuations in energy prices. We find that a stable long-term inflation trend and a well-identified steep Phillips curve are consistent with the data, but they imply potential output declining since the new millennium and energy prices affecting headline inflation not only via the Phillips curve but also via an independent expectational channel.
Higher-order risk preferences are important determinants of economic behavior. We apply insights from behavioral economics: we measure higher-order risk preferences for pure gains and losses. We find a reflection effect not only for second-order risk preferences, as did Kahneman and Tversky (1979), but also for higher-order risk preferences: we find risk aversion, prudence and intemperance for gains and much more risk-loving preferences, imprudence and temperance for losses. These findings are at odds with a universal preference for combining good with bad or good with good, which previous results suggest may underlie higher-order risk preferences.
We study the importance of social interactions on occupational choice in Victorian London using a multinomial choice model within an incomplete social network. Individuals form heterogeneous rational expectations about their peers' behaviors, taking into account their characteristics and the strength of their ties. We show the conditions under which the endogenous, exogenous, and correlated effects can be identified and a unique equilibrium can be established, Using a novel data set, we proxy social groups by parish boundaries and strength of ties by geographic distances, Our results show the importance of the endogenous effects and reveal distinct effects by occupation.
We assess the role of monetary incentives in a mission-oriented organization by randomly assigning workers to one of two bonus schemes, incentivizing either the performance of a microcredit program (bottom line) or the empowerment of clients (mission). We find that the credit bonus improved credit-related outcomes but undermined the social mission, while the social bonus did not harm the bottom line. These results are consistent with a multitasking model with production spillovers or with prosocial behavior. We show that when mission-related rewards are not feasible, organizations that care about both the mission and the bottom line prefer flat wages to incentives.
How feasible is violence early-warning prediction? Colombia and Indonesia have unusually fine-grained data. We assemble two decades of local violent events alongside hundreds of annual risk factors. We attempt to predict violence one year ahead with a range of machine learning techniques. Our models reliably identify persistent, high-violence hot spots. Violence is not simply autoregressive, as detailed histories of disaggregated violence perform best, but socioeconomic data substitute well for these histories. Even with unusually rich data, however, our models poorly predict new outbreaks or escalations of violence. These “best-case” scenarios with annual data fall short of workable early-warning systems.
This paper presents the first systematic investigation of the effect of epidemic shocks on civil violence. The identification exploits exogenous within cell × year variation in conditions that are suitable for malaria transmission using a panel database with month-by-month variation at a resolution of 1∘×1∘ latitude/longitude for Africa. Suitable conditions increase civil violence in areas with populations susceptible to epidemic outbreaks. The effect is immediate, related to the acute phase of the epidemic and largest during short harvesting seasons of subsistence crops. Genetic immunities and antimalaria policies attenuate the effect. The results deliver new insights for prevention and attenuation policies and for potential consequences of climate change.
This paper explores the aggregate economic effects from India's National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS), which provides up to 100 days of labor to rural laborers at the mandated minimum wage. We examine the within-district change to nighttime lights, a proxy for economic development, and banking deposits using the staggered program rollout for identification. We find consistent and robust evidence that NREGS increased aggregate economic output by 1% to 2% per capita measured by nighttime lights. This effect, however, is not equal across districts. We observe no positive effect of the program in poorer districts, illuminating an important source of heterogeneity.
Local pollution exposures have a disproportionate impact on minority households, but the root causes remain unclear. This study conducts a correspondence experiment on a major online housing platform to test whether housing discrimination constrains minority access to housing options in markets with significant sources of airborne chemical toxics. We find that renters with African American or Hispanic/Latinx names are 41% less likely than renters with white names to receive responses for properties in low-exposure locations. We find no evidence of discriminatory constraints in high-exposure locations, indicating that discrimination increases relative access to housing choices at elevated exposure risk.
We evaluate alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market fundamentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. World industrial production is one of the most useful indicators. However, by combining measures from several different sources, we can do even better. Our analysis results in a new index of global economic conditions and measures for assessing future energy demand and oil price pressures. We illustrate their usefulness for quantifying the main factors behind the severe contraction of the global economy and the price risks faced by shale oil producers in early 2020.
It is surprisingly difficult to find economic variables that strongly comove with exchange rates, a phenomenon codified in a large literature as “exchange rate disconnect.” We demonstrate that a variety of common proxies for global risk appetite, which did not comove with exchange rates prior to 2007, have provided significant in-sample explanatory power for currencies since then. Furthermore, during the 2007–2012 period, U.S. purchases of foreign bonds were highly correlated with these risk measures and with exchange rates. Our results support the narrative that the U.S. dollar's role as an international and safe-haven currency has surged since the global financial crisis.
We develop a Bayesian latent factor model of the joint long-run evolution of GDP per capita for 113 countries over the 118 years from 1900 to 2017. We find considerable heterogeneity in rates of convergence, including rates for some countries that are so slow that they might not converge (or diverge) in century-long samples, and a sparse correlation pattern (“convergence clubs”) between countries. The joint Bayesian structure allows us to compute a joint predictive distribution for the output paths of these countries over the next 100 years. This predictive distribution can be used for simulations requiring projections into the deep future, such as estimating the costs of climate change. The model's pooling of information across countries results in tighter prediction intervals than are achieved using univariate information sets. Still, even using more than a century of data on many countries, the 100-year growth paths exhibit very wide uncertainty.
Berkson errors are commonplace in empirical microeconomics. In consumer demand, this form of measurement error occurs when the price an individual pays is measured by the (weighted) average price paid by individuals in a group (e.g., a county) rather than the true transaction price. We show the importance of Berkson errors for demand estimation with nonseparable unobserved heterogeneity. We develop a consistent estimator using external information on the true price distribution. Examining gasoline demand in the United States, we document substantial within-market price variability. Accounting for Berkson errors is quantitatively important. Imposing the Slutsky shape constraint reduces sensitivity to Berkson errors.
Costs from switching suppliers can affect prices by discouraging buyer movements from high- to low-cost sellers. This paper uses confidential data on U.S. importers and their Chinese exporters to investigate these costs. I find barriers to supplier adjustments: nearly half of importers keep their partner over time. Importers switch less if their supplier offers higher quality or provides lower prices. I propose and structurally estimate a dynamic discrete choice model to compute switching costs. Cost estimates are large, heterogeneous across products, and matter for trade prices: halving switching costs reduces the U.S.-China Import Price Index by 7.6%.
Using the Social Connectedness Index (Bailey, Cao, Kuchler, Stroebel et al., 2018) to capture county-to-county Facebook linkages, I explore how county-level earned income tax credit (EITC) claiming behavior changes when the county's out-of-state social network is exposed to a newly implemented state EITC. Having more out-of-state friends face a state EITC shifts the composition of EITC claims toward more self-employment claiming. EITC-claiming households' income distribution also shifts, moving away from the EITC region with smaller credits, toward income levels that generate the largest EITC. This mimics the direct impacts of state-level EITC policies, consistent with social networks increasing information or salience about EITC policy.
Before the racial integration of schools in the southern United States, predominantly African American schools were staffed almost exclusively by African American teachers as well, and teaching constituted an extraordinarily large share of professional employment among southern Blacks. The large-scale desegregation of southern schools that occurred after passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act represented a potential threat to this employment base, and this paper estimates how student integration affected Black teacher employment. Using newly assembled archival data from 759 southern school districts observed between 1960 and 1972, I estimate that a school district transitioning from fully segregated to fully integrated education, which approximates the experience of the modal southern district in this period, led to a 41.7% reduction in Black teacher employment. Additional results, including event-study specifications and models with extensive controls for concurrent policy changes, strongly suggest that these employment reductions were a causal effect of integration and not due to school district self-selection into desegregation. To study the broader impacts of reduced teaching employment, I estimate race-specific changes in occupations and earnings in the decennial Censuses and find that displaced southern Black teachers either entered lower skill occupations within the South or migrated out of the region to continue teaching and that integration-induced displacement led to substantial earnings reductions.
We examine gender differences in career progression and promotions using personnel data from the European Central Bank (ECB) during the period 2003–2017. A gender wage gap emerges within a few years of hiring, despite broadly similar entry conditions. We also find a gender promotion gap before 2010 when the ECB issued a public commitment to diversity. Following this change, the promotion gap disappears. Using data on promotion applications, we find a gender application bias, partly driven by preferences for competition. Following promotion, women perform better in terms of salary progression.
Over the past fifteen years, eleven states have restricted employers' access to the credit reports of job applicants. We estimate that county-level job vacancies have fallen by 5.5% in occupations affected by these laws relative to exempt occupations in the same counties and national-level vacancies for the same occupations. Cross-sectional heterogeneity suggests that employers use credit reports as signals of a worker's ability to perform the job: vacancies fall more in counties with a large share of subprime residents and less for occupations with other commonly available signals. Vacancies fall most for occupations involving routine tasks, suggesting that credit reports contain information relevant for these types of jobs.
Do individuals care about their relative income? While this is a long-standing hypothesis, revealed-preference evidence remains elusive. We provide a unique test by studying residential choices: individuals often must choose between places with different income distributions, and as a result they “choose” their relative income. We conducted a field experiment with 1,080 senior medical students who participated in the National Resident Matching Program. We estimate their preferences by combining choice data, survey data on perceptions, and information-provision experiments. The evidence suggests that individuals care about their relative income and that these preferences differ across single and nonsingle individuals.
Using data on adults' cognitive skills from nineteen countries, this paper shows that labor market conditions during the education-to-work transition affected workers' long-term skill development. Workers who faced higher unemployment rates at ages 18 to 25 have lower skills at ages 36 to 59. Unemployment rates at ages 26 to 35 do not have such an effect. Skill inequality is affected: those with less educated parents experience most of the negative effects. Using German panel data on skills, I document a mechanism related to heterogeneous skill development across firms: young workers at large firms experience higher skill growth than those at small firms.
We show that giant and unpredictable oil and gas discoveries trigger FDI bonanzas. Across developing countries, we document a 56% increase in FDI in the two years following a giant discovery. These booms are driven by new projects in sectors such as manufacturing, retail, services, and construction. To assess the job creation effects of one such FDI bonanza in Mozambique, we combine concurrent waves of household surveys and firm censuses and estimate the local job multiplier of FDI. Our estimates suggest that for each new FDI job, an additional 4.4 jobs are created locally, 2.1 of which are formal jobs.
We use a survey experiment to generate direct evidence on how people acquire and process information. Participants can buy different information signals that could help them forecast future national home prices. We elicit their valuations and exogenously vary the cost of information. Participants put substantial value on their preferred signal and, when acquired, incorporate the signal in their beliefs. However, they disagree on which signal to buy. As a result, making information cheaper does not decrease the cross-sectional dispersion of expectations. We provide a model with costly acquisition and processing of information, which can match most of our empirical results.
We exploit inheritance episodes to provide novel causal evidence on the long-run effects of a large financial windfall on saving behavior. For identification, we combine a longitudinal panel of administrative wealth reports with variation in the timing of sudden, unexpected parental deaths. We show that after inheritance, net worth converges toward the path established before parental death, with only one-third of the initial windfall remaining after nine years. We interpret these findings through the lens of a generalized consumption-saving framework. To quantitatively replicate this behavior, life-cycle consumption models require impatient consumers and strong precautionary saving motives.
Many studies have shown that consumption responds to the arrival of predictable income (excess sensitivity). This paper uses a buffer stock model of consumption to understand what causes excess sensitivity and to test which parameterization is consistent with empirical excess sensitivity estimates. Using high-frequency granular data from a personal finance app, I find that while liquidity constraints are a proximate cause, preferences are the ultimate cause of excess sensitivity. Furthermore, it finds that for feasible parameters, a quasi-hyperbolic version of the model is more consistent with the level of excess sensitivity relative to a standard exponential model.
The principle that people should be held personally responsible for the consequences of their choices is a fundamental moral ideal in Western societies. We report from a large-scale experimental study of how far-reaching this principle is for inequality acceptance. We show that third-party spectators violate minimal conditions for a morally relevant choice when making redistributive decisions for two workers. They accept more inequality when the workers have made nominal and forced choices than when brute luck is the source of inequality. We argue that our findings shed light on important current political debates about personal responsibility and redistributive policies.
The existence of collective reputation implies an important externality. Among firms trading internationally, quality shocks about one firm's products could affect the demand of other firms from the same origin country. We study such a reputation spillover in the context of a large-scale scandal that affected the Chinese dairy industry in 2008. Leveraging detailed firm-product level administrative data and official quality inspection reports, we document sizable reputation spillovers on uncontaminated firms. We further investigate potential mechanisms that could mediate the strength of collective reputation, including information accuracy, observability of the supply chain, and prior export experience.
We identify earnings impacts of exposure to an infant health intervention in Sweden, using individual-linked administrative data to trace potential mechanisms. Leveraging quasi-random variation in eligibility, we estimate that exposure was associated with higher test scores in primary school for boys and girls. However, only girls were more likely to score in the top quintile. Subsequent gains, in secondary schooling, employment, and earnings, are restricted to girls. We show that the differential gains for women accrued from both skills and opportunities.
We study the effect of Internet diffusion on childbirth procedures performed in England between 2000 and 2011. We show that broadband Internet access increased cesarean sections (C-sections): mothers living in areas with better Internet access are 2.5% more likely to obtain a C-section. The effect is driven by first-time mothers who are 6% more likely to obtain a C-section. The increased C-section rate is not accompanied by changes in health care outcomes; thus health care costs increased with no corresponding medical benefits. We show evidence documenting the growing importance of the Internet as a source of health-related information.
This paper assesses the impact of job protection deregulation on the labor share in a sample of 26 advanced economies during the 1970–2013 period, using a newly constructed dataset of major reforms in this area. We employ a difference-in-differences identification strategy using two identifying assumptions grounded in theory—deregulation has larger effects in industries characterized by (i) a higher “natural” propensity to regularly adjust the workforce and (ii) a lower elasticity of substitution between capital and labor. We find significant negative effects of deregulation on the labor share, contributing to about a tenth of its observed decline in advanced economies.
We examine price negotiation in the payment card industry by exploiting a unique merchant-, industry-, and city-level data set. Motivated by the substantial variation in acquirer fees and heterogeneous merchant card transactions, we use Nash bargaining to model the negotiation over the acquirer fee between an acquirer and a merchant. We find that the merchants secure a larger incremental surplus than the acquirer on average. Moreover, merchants might face upward pressure on acquirer fees as the card penetration rate rises over time, and policies that weaken the acquirer's bargaining power could relieve the upward fee pressure.
We present novel insights on the role of international trade following unanticipated fiscal changes in a flexible exchange rate environment. We show analytically that fiscal multipliers can be larger in economies more open to trade, even when fiscal expansions imply trade deficits. Three factors determine how trade linkages matter: the relative import share of public and private goods, the financing of government debt, and the currency invoicing of exports. A Bayesian prior-predictive analysis shows that a quantitative model bears the same predictions. Conditioning on Canadian and U.S. data, we find support for larger multipliers relative to a counterfactually closed economy.
This paper develops and estimates a New Keynesian (NK) model with endogenous technology. It shows that introducing endogenous technology can solve three important puzzles that conventional NK models face: the inflation persistence, disinflationary news shock, and zero lower bound (ZLB) supply shock. First, the observed persistence in inflation is explained without relying on the conventional NK models' additional assumptions (e.g., backward price indexation). Second, it explains the observed disinflationary effect of a news shock. Third, the model avoids the conventional NK models' paradoxical, empirically inconsistent prediction that a negative supply shock is expansionary at the ZLB on interest rates.
I study the effects of prison quality on recidivism using individual-level data from Colombia. To estimate causal effects, I leverage the quasi-random assignment of inmates to newer, less crowded, and higher service prisons. For inmates assigned to newer facilities, I find that the probability of returning to prison within one year is 36% lower. Criminal capital, access to rehabilitation programs, and negative prison experiences, which could trigger changes in intrinsic preferences over illegal occupations, seem to be important mechanisms. The program led to substantial welfare gains, even when assuming a low social cost per crime.
Many development programs that attempt to disseminate improved technologies are limited in duration because of external funding constraints or an assumption of impact sustainability, but there is limited evidence on whether and when terminating such programs is efficient. We provide novel experimental evidence on the impacts of a randomized phaseout of an agricultural extension and subsidy program that promotes improved inputs and cultivation practices among smallholder women farmers in Uganda. We find that phaseout does not diminish the use of either practices or inputs as farmers shift purchases from NGO-sponsored village-based supply networks to market sources. These results indicate that short-term interventions can suffice to trigger persistent effects, consistent with models of technology adoption that emphasize learning from experience.
Health-based drinking water violations affect about one in twelve Americans annually, yet the benefits of drinking water regulation are not well understood. I exploit plausibly exogenous variation in water quality violation timing to estimate the impacts on avoidance behavior and child outcomes. Using purchases of bottled water and common stomach remedies, emergency room visits for gastrointestinal illness, and school absences, I provide a comprehensive calculation of costs associated with poor drinking water quality. Individuals avoid the negative health impacts of coliform bacteria violations only when informed immediately. Timely public notification is a cost-effective way to induce avoidance behavior and protect health.
This paper introduces forward-looking measures of the network connectedness of fears in the financial system arising due to the good and bad beliefs of market participants about uncertainty that spreads unequally across a network of banks. We argue that this asymmetric network structure extracted from call and put traded option prices of the main U.S. banks contains valuable information for predicting macroeconomic conditions and economic uncertainty, and it can serve as a tool for forward-looking systemic risk monitoring.
We present evidence consistent with time-varying risk preferences among automobile drivers. Exploiting a unique data set of agents' high-frequency driving behavior collected by a mobile phone application, we show that drivers drive more conservatively following near-miss accidents. In a preferred specification, a near-miss triggers a reduction in driving distance of 12.98 kilometers, in-car cell phone use by more than 100%, and highway use by 43.24%. Structural estimation results indicate that such changes in behavior are consistent with an increase in risk aversion of 10.54% to 43.77% and a reduction in annual insurance cost amounting to 2.04% to 3.31% of the average car insurance premium.
We introduce NLK, a model that connects the Nash equilibrium (NE) and level-k. It allows a player in a game to believe that her opponent may be either less or as sophisticated as she is, a view supported in psychology. We apply NLK to data from five published papers on static, dynamic, and auction games. NLK provides different predictions from those of the NE and level-k; moreover, a simple version of NLK explains the experimental data better in many cases, with the same or fewer parameters. We discuss extensions to games with more than two players and heterogeneous beliefs.
Equal access to voting is a core feature of democratic government. Using data from hundreds of thousands of smartphone users, we quantify a racial disparity in voting wait times across a nationwide sample of polling places during the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Relative to entirely white neighborhoods, residents of entirely black neighborhoods waited 29% longer to vote and were 74% more likely to spend more than thirty minutes at their polling place. This disparity holds when comparing predominantly white and black polling places within the same states and counties and survives numerous robustness and placebo tests. We shed light on the mechanism for these results and discuss how geospatial data can be an effective tool to measure and monitor these disparities going forward.
While economic theories indicate that market power by downstream firms can potentially counteract market power upstream, antitrust policy is opaque as to whether to incorporate countervailing market power in merger analyses. We use detailed national claims data from the health care sector to evaluate whether countervailing insurer power does indeed limit hospitals' exercise of market power. We estimate willingness-to-pay models to evaluate hospital market power across analysis areas. We find that countervailing market power is important: a typical hospital merger would raise hospital prices 4.3% at the 25th percentile of insurer concentration but only 0.97% at the 75th percentile of insurer concentration.
In imperfectly competitive settings, a firm's price depends on its own costs as well as those of its competitors. We demonstrate that this has important implications for the estimation and interpretation of pass-through. Leveraging a large input cost shock resulting from the fracking boom, we isolate price responses to firm-specific, regional, and industry-wide input cost shocks in the U.S. oil refining industry. The pass-through of these components varies from near zero to full pass-through, reconciling seemingly disparate results from the literature. We illustrate the policy implications of rival cost pass-through in the context of a tax on refinery carbon emissions.
We study how emergency department (ED) doctors respond to incentives to reduce wait times. We use bunching techniques to study an English policy that imposed strong incentives to treat patients within four hours. The policy reduced time spent in the ED by 21 minutes for affected patients yet caused doctors to increase treatment intensity and admit more patients. We find a striking 14% reduction in mortality. Analysis of patient severity and hospital crowding strongly suggests it is the wait time reduction that saves lives. We conclude that, despite distorting medical decisions, constraining ED doctors can induce cost-effective reductions in mortality.
This paper provides representative evidence on beliefs about racial discrimination and examines whether information causally affects support for pro-black policies. Eliciting quantitative beliefs about the extent of hiring discrimination against blacks, we uncover large disagreement about the extent of racial discrimination with particularly pronounced partisan differences. An information treatment leads to a convergence in beliefs about racial discrimination but does not lead to a similar convergence in support of pro-black policies. The results demonstrate that while providing information can substantially reduce disagreement about the extent of racial discrimination, it is not sufficient to reduce disagreement about pro-black policies.
This paper provides evidence of the causal effect of church attendance on petty crime by using quasi-random variation in the number of Sundays when it precipitated at the specific time of most religious services. Using a novel strategy, I find a narrow time window when most individuals attend church. Based on a panel between 1980 and 2016, I find that one more Sunday with precipitation at the time of church increases yearly drug-related, alcohol-related, and white-collar crimes. I do not find an effect for violent or property crimes. These effects are driven by more religious counties. Previous evidence showing negative effects of church attendance on the demand for alcohol and drugs is consistent with a demand-driven interpretation of the results presented.
How large is volatility due to large firms? We answer this question through both reduced-form analysis and a calibration exercise. First, we exploit time and spatial variation across German cities and show that higher concentration is associated with more persistent local business cycles, and local concentration Granger causes local employment volatility. From a business cycle perspective, we find evidence in favor of granularity-driven recessions only. Next, we calibrate a structural model along the lines of Carvalho and Grassi (2019) and find that the more fat-tailed productivity distribution in bigger cities crucially depends also on the higher probability that firms will grow.
Do firms respond to cost shocks by reducing the quality of their products? Using microdata from a large Russian retailer that refreshes its product line twice-yearly, we document that higher quality products are more profitable than lower quality ones, but that the number of high-quality products experiences a relative decrease after a large ruble devaluation in 2014. We show that rising firm costs—and not shrinking consumer incomes—explains the reallocation, and rationalize the data with a model that features consumer expenditure switching between high and low qualities. The reallocation to lower quality products reduces average pass-through by 26%.
This paper proposes a procedure for assessing the sensitivity of inferential conclusions for functionals of sparse high-dimensional models following model selection. The proposed procedure is called targeted undersmoothing. Functionals considered include dense functionals that may depend on many or all elements of the high-dimensional parameter vector. The sensitivity analysis is based on systematic enlargements of an initially selected model. By varying the enlargements, one can conduct sensitivity analysis about the strength of empirical conclusions to model selection mistakes. We illustrate the procedure's performance through simulation experiments and two empirical examples.
We develop approximate estimation methods for exponential random graph models (ERGMs), whose likelihood is proportional to an intractable normalizing constant. The usual approach approximates this constant with Monte Carlo simulations; however, convergence may be exponentially slow. We propose a deterministic method, based on a variational mean-field approximation of the ERGM's normalizing constant. We compute lower and upper bounds for the approximation error for any network size, adapting nonlinear large deviation results. This translates into bounds on the distance between true likelihood and mean-field likelihood. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that in practice, our deterministic method performs better than our conservative theoretical approximation bounds imply, for a large class of models.
We introduce a new class of time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) where the identified structural innovations are allowed to influence the dynamics of the coefficients in these models. An estimation algorithm and a parameterization conducive to model comparison are also provided. We apply our framework to the U.S. economy. Scenario analysis suggests that once accounting for the influence of structural shocks on the autoregressive coefficients, the effects of monetary policy on economic activity are larger and more persistent than in an otherwise standard TVP-VAR. Our results also indicate that cost-push shocks play a prominent role in understanding historical changes in inflation-gap persistence.
Will the fast expansion of cash-based programming in poor countries increase international migration? Theoretically, cash transfers may deter migration by increasing its opportunity cost or favor migration by relaxing liquidity, credit, and risk constraints. This paper evaluates the impact of a cash-for-work program on migration. Randomly selected households in Comoros were offered up to US$320 in cash in exchange for their participation in public works projects. We find that the program increased international migration by 38% from 7.8% to 10.8%. The increase in migration appears to be driven by the alleviation of liquidity and risk constraints.
During historical periods in which U.S. fuel economy standards were unchanging, automakers increased performance but not fuel economy, contrasting with recent periods of tightening standards and rising fuel economy. This paper evaluates the welfare consequences of automakers forgoing performance increases to raise fuel economy as standards have tightened since 2012. Using a unique data set and a novel approach to account for fuel economy and performance endogeneity, we find undervaluation of fuel cost savings and high valuation of performance. Welfare costs of forgone performance approximately equal expected fuel savings benefits, suggesting approximately zero net private consumer benefit from tightened standards.
This paper examines policy effectiveness as a function of leader identity. We experimentally vary leader religious identity in a coordination game implemented in India and focus on citizen reactions to leader identity, controlling for leader actions. We find that minority leaders improve coordination, and majority leaders do not. Alternative treatment arms reveal that affirmative action for minorities reverses this result, while intergroup contact improves the effectiveness of leaders of both identities. We also find that minority leaders are less effective in towns with a history of intergroup conflict. Our results demonstrate that leader and policy effectiveness depend on citizen reactions, conditioned by social identity and past conflict.
Herding and contrarian strategies produce informational inefficiencies when investors ignore private information, instead following or bucking past trends. In a simple market model, I show theoretically that investors with prospect theory preferences generically follow herding or contrarian strategies, but do so because of future returns as opposed to past trends. I conduct a laboratory experiment to test the theory and obtain an estimate of the distribution of preferences in the subject population. I find that approximately 70% of subjects have preferences that induce herding. Using the preference estimates, I quantify informational efficiencies and predict trade behavior in more general environments.
We estimate how much firms differentiate pay premia between regular and outsourced workers in temp agency work arrangements. We leverage unique Argentinian administrative data that feature links between user firms (the workplaces where temp workers perform their labor) and temp agencies (their formal employers). We estimate that a high-wage user firm that pays a regular worker a 10% premium pays a temp worker on average only a 4.9% premium, compared to what these workers would earn in a low-wage user firm in their respective work arrangements. This 49% pass-through constitutes the midpoint between the benchmarks for insiders (one) and the competitive spot-labor market (zero).
Can tax regimes shape the incentives to engage in armed conflict? Indian mining royalties benefit the states but are set by the central government. India's Maoist belt is mineral rich, and states are responsible for counterinsurgency operations. We exploit the introduction of a 10% ad valorem tax on iron ore that increased royalty collections of the affected states by a factor of 10. We find that the royalty hike was followed by a significant intensification of violence in districts with important iron ore deposits. The royalty increase was also followed by an increase in illegal mining activity in iron mines.
The widespread use of markets leads to unprecedented material well-being in many societies. We study whether market interaction, as a side effect, erodes moral values. In an influential paper, Falk and Szech (2013) provide experimental data that seem to suggest that “market interaction erodes moral values.” Although we replicate their main treatment effect, we show that additional treatments are necessary to corroborate their conclusion. These treatments reveal that playing repeatedly, and not market interaction, causes the erosion of moral values. Our paper thus shows that neither Falk and Szech's data nor our data support the claim that markets erode morals.
Insurance markets often feature consumer sorting along both an extensive margin (whether to buy) and an intensive margin (which plan to buy). We present a new graphical theoretical framework that extends a workhorse model to incorporate both selection margins simultaneously. A key insight from our framework is that policies aimed at addressing one margin of selection often involve an economically meaningful trade-off on the other margin in terms of prices, enrollment, and welfare. Using data from Massachusetts, we illustrate these trade-offs in an empirical sufficient statistics approach that is tightly linked to the graphical framework we develop.
We exploit exogenous variation arising from the historical rollout of the Swedish railroad network across municipalities to identify the impacts of improved transport infrastructure on innovative activity. A network connection led to a local surge in patenting due to an increased entry and productivity of inventors. As the railroad network expanded, inventors in connected areas began to develop ideas with applications outside the local economy, which were subsequently sold to firms along the network. Our findings suggest that reductions in communication and transportation costs were an important driver of the historical emergence of a market for ideas.
This paper documents gender differences in the career paths of novice politicians. Using trajectories of over 11,000 candidates for California local offices and a regression discontinuity approach, I investigate the persistence of candidates after they win or lose elections. Losing an election causes over 50% more attrition among female than male candidates. Yet the gender gap in persistence depends on the setting: there is a smaller gap among candidates for high female representation offices and among candidates with prior elective experience. I discuss how the expected costs and benefits of running again potentially explain the gender gap in persistence.
We empirically investigate key dynamic features of advertising competition in elections using a new data set of very high-frequency, household-level television viewing matched to campaign advertising exposures. First, we show that exposure to campaign advertising increases households' consumption of news programming by 3 or 4 minutes on average over the next 24 hours. The identification compares households viewing a program when a political ad appeared to viewers in the same market who barely missed it. Second, we show that these effects decline over the campaign. Together, these dynamic forces help rationalize why candidates deploy much of their advertising budgets well before election day.
Where the state is weak, traditional authorities control the local provision of public goods. These leaders come from an older, less educated generation and often rule in an authoritarian and exclusionary fashion. This means the skills of community members may not be leveraged in policymaking. We experimentally evaluate two solutions to this problem in Sierra Leone: one encourages delegation to higher-skill individuals, and a second fosters broader inclusion in decision making. In a real-world infrastructure grants competition, a public nudge to delegate led to better outcomes than the default of chiefly control, whereas attempts to boost participation were largely ineffective.
Can cash aid harm nonrecipients by raising local prices? We show that a household-targeted cash transfer in the Philippines increases the prices of perishable foods in some markets and raises stunting among nonbeneficiary children by 11 percentage points (34%). Impacts increase in the size of the village income shock and remoteness---and are sustained two and a half years after program introduction. Price effects from an experimental sample are confirmed with national expenditure surveys collected during program scale-up. Household-targeted cash transfers can thus generate local spillovers that undermine program goals. Selected geographic targeting may avoid price spillovers at moderate additional cost.
Policies based on prohibition and repression to fight the war on drugs have largely failed in a variety of contexts. However, incentive-based policies may also fail and have unintended negative consequences if policymakers do not properly anticipate behavioral reactions. This is an particularly important concern in the case of policies announced prior to their implementation. In this paper, we show that a naive and untimely policy announcement generated an unprecedented escalation in cocaine production in Colombia, offsetting almost 20 years and billions of dollars of U.S.-backed efforts to stop drug production and cartel action.
We study the local effects of new market-rate housing in low-income areas using microdata on large apartment buildings, rents, and migration. New buildings decrease rents in nearby units by about 6% relative to units slightly farther away or near sites developed later, and they increase in-migration from low-income areas. We show that new buildings absorb many high-income households and increase the local housing stock substantially. If buildings improve nearby amenities, the effect is not large enough to increase rents. Amenity improvements could be limited because most buildings go into already-changing neighborhoods or buildings could create disamenities such as congestion.
Analysis of the relationship between taxes and self-employment should account for the interplay between responses in self-employment and wage employment. To this end, we estimate a two-state multispell duration model which accounts for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity using a large longitudinal administrative data set for Norway for 1993 to 2011. Our findings confirm theoretical predictions and are robust to various changes to definitions and sample selections. A policy experiment simulating a flatter tax schedule in the year 2000 is found to encourage self-employment, delivering a net increase of predicted inflow into self-employment from 2.8% to 5.3%⁠.
Using oil futures, we examine expectation formation and how it alters the macroeconomic transmission of shocks. Our empirical framework, where investors learn about the persistence of oil-price movements, successfully replicates the fluctuations in oil-price futures since the Late 1990s. By embedding this learning mechanism in an estimated model, we document that an increase in the persistence of TFP-driven fluctuations in oil demand largely accounts for investors' perceptions that oil-price movements became increasingly permanent during the 2000s. Learning alters the macroeconomic impact of shocks, making the responses time dependent and conditional on perceptions of shocks' likely persistence.
We build a model of bond yields in an economy with secular changes to inflation, real rate, and output growth. Long-run restrictions identify nominal shocks that do not influence the long-run real rate and output growth. Before the anchoring of inflation around the mid-1990s, nominal shocks lifted the output gap and inflation. This led to a higher and steeper yield curve because the short rate was expected to peak after several quarters, following declines in the responses of growth and inflation. With inflation anchored, nominal shocks have small impacts on inflation, output, and bond yields, mostly via the term premium.
Recent work stresses a potentially important relation between credit supply shocks and aggregate TFP based on factor misallocation. I take three steps to examine this relation. First, using state-of-the-art credit supply shock and aggregate TFP measures, I show that an adverse credit supply shock has a weak and very short-lived effect on aggregate TFP. Second, using firm-level data, I show that firm-level capital stock responses to an adverse credit supply shock produce an insignificant and negligible capital-misallocation–induced TFP response. Third, using employment data by fine firm-size category classification, I also find a negligible labor-misallocation–induced TFP response. These findings suggest that the TFP channel of credit supply shocks has a limited role in their transmission to the real economy.
The “annuity puzzle” refers to the fact that annuities are rarely purchased despite the longevity insurance they provide. Most explanations for this puzzle assume that individuals have accurate expectations about their future survival. We provide evidence that individuals misperceive their mortality risk and study the demand for annuities in a setting where annuities are priced by insurers on the basis of objectively-measured survival probabilities but in which individuals make purchasing decisions based on their own subjective survival probabilities. Subjective expectations have the capacity to explain significant rates of nonannuitization, yielding a quantitatively important explanation for the annuity puzzle.
The United States patent system is unique in that it requires applicants to cite documents they know to be relevant to the examination of their patent applications. Lampe (2012) presents evidence that applicants strategically withhold 21%–33% of relevant citations from patent examiners, suggesting that many patents are fraudulently obtained. We challenge this view. We first show that Lampe's empirical design is inconsistent with both legal standards and standard operating procedures, including how courts identify strategic withholding. We then compile comprehensive data to reassess the empirical basis for Lampe's main claim. We find no evidence that applicants withhold citations.
Preferences for monetary and nonmonetary job attributes are important for understanding workers' motivation and the organization of work. Little is known, however, about how those job preferences are formed. We study how macroeconomic conditions when young shape workers' job preferences for life. Using variation in income-per-capita across U.S. regions and over time since the 1920s, we find that job preferences vary in systematic ways with experienced macroeconomic conditions during young adulthood. Recessions create cohorts of workers who give higher priority to income, whereas booms make cohorts care more about job meaning for the rest of their lives.
A common approach to estimation of dynamic economic models is to calibrate a subset of model parameters and keep them fixed when estimating the remaining parameters. Calibrated parameters likely affect conclusions based on the model, but estimation time often makes a systematic investigation of the sensitivity to calibrated parameters infeasible. I propose a simple and computationally low-cost measure of the sensitivity of parameters and other objects of interest to the calibrated parameters. In the main empirical application, I revisit the analysis of life-cycle savings motives in Gourinchas and Parker (2002) and show that some estimates are sensitive to calibrations.
I combine personnel records with vital statistics for 1910 to 1925 to study how bureaucratic representation affected mortality in 1,271 Indian towns during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Exploiting the rotation of senior colonial officers across districts and a cross-border comparison, towns headed by Indian (as opposed to British) district officers experienced 15 percentage points lower deaths. The lower mortality effects extended beyond the urban areas and coincided with greater responsiveness in relief provision. Bureaucratic representation can thus be a powerful way to increase state responsiveness during times of crisis.
The well-documented rise in political polarization among the U.S. electorate over the past 20 years has been accompanied by a substantial increase in the effect of partisan bias on survey-based measures of economic expectations. Individuals have a more optimistic view on future economic conditions when they are more closely affiliated with the party that controls the White House, and this tendency has increased significantly over time. Individuals report a large shift in economic expectations based on partisan affiliation after the 2008 and 2016 elections, but administrative data on spending shows no effect of these shifts on actual household spending.
We study the sources of high end-of-life spending for cancer patients. Even among patients with similar initial prognoses, spending in the year postdiagnosis is over twice as high for those who die within the year than those who survive. Elevated spending on decedents is predominantly driven by higher inpatient spending, particularly low-intensity admissions. However, most such admissions do not result in death, making it difficult to target spending reductions. Furthermore, end-of-life spending is substantially more elevated for younger patients, compared to older patients with similar prognoses. Results highlight sources of high end-of-life spending without revealing any natural “remedies.”
We study the effects of audits on long run compliance behavior using a random audit program covering more than 53,000 tax returns. We find that audits raise reported tax liabilities for five years after audit, effects are longer-lasting for more stable sources of income, and only individuals found to have made errors respond to audit. A total of 60%–65% of revenue from audit comes from the change in reporting behavior. Extending the standard model of rational tax evasion, we show that these results are best explained by information revealed by audits constraining future misreporting. Together these imply that more resources should be devoted to audits, audit targeting should account for reporting responses, and performing audits has additional value beyond merely threatening them.
We provide a new measure of automation based on patents and study its employment effects. Classifying all U.S. patents granted between 1976 and 2014 as automation or nonautomation patents, we document a strong rise in the number and share of automation patents. We link patents to their industries of use and to commuting zones. To estimate the effect of automation, we use an instrumental variables strategy that relies on innovations developed independently from U.S. labor market trends. We find that automation technology has a positive effect on employment in local labor markets, driven by job growth in the service sector.
Can procedural reforms improve judicial efficiency? And do improvements in judicial efficiency benefit firms? We combine the staggered rollout of a reform that required judges in Senegal to complete pretrials within four months with high-frequency caseload data and firm tax filings. The reform improved judicial efficiency, with no effect on quality. Firm monthly revenues drop by 8–11% upon entering pretrial and decline by on average 3.2–5.0% for every hundred days a case spends in pretrial. Survey results show firms are willing to pay higher legal fees to achieve postreform speed, suggesting positive benefits of the reform on firms.
This paper studies the effects of peers on the adoption of a Youth Employment Subsidy in Chile since its inception. We examine the effects that former classmates' and coworkers' adoption have on one's adoption. Identification comes from discontinuities in the assignment rule that allow us to construct valid instrumental variables for peers' adoption. Using a comprehensive set of administrative records, we find that classmates and especially coworkers play significant roles in the adoption of the subsidy. Peer effects are determined during the early stages of the program's implementation and vary by network characteristics and the strength of network ties.
We study how political hierarchy shapes regional development in China, using variations driven by regime changes during the 1000–2000 C.E. period. We find that changes in the status of the provincial capital led to the rise and decline of different prefectures as measured by population and urbanization. Two other novel findings stand out: (1) the economic advantages of the provincial capitals did not persist if they lost their political status, and (2) political hierarchy shaped economic development not only through public employment but also through the development of important infrastructure, such as transportation networks. Our findings highlight the importance of politics in determining the locations of economic activities.
A headline result from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment is that emergency room (ER) utilization increased. A seemingly contradictory result from the Massachusetts health reform is that ER utilization decreased. I reconcile both results by identifying treatment effect heterogeneity within the Oregon experiment and extrapolating it to Massachusetts. Even though Oregon compliers increased their ER utilization, they were adversely selected relative to Oregon never takers, who would have decreased their ER utilization. Massachusetts expanded coverage from a higher level to healthier compliers. Therefore, Massachusetts compliers are comparable to a subset of Oregon never takers, which can reconcile the results.
Changes in product characteristics on the extensive margin (the addition of new features and the removal of old ones) are an important and hitherto neglected dimension of quality change. Standard techniques for adjusting price indices for new goods cannot handle such changes satisfactorily, and this leads to an economically and statistically significant bias in the measurement of prices and real output. We combine insights from the theories of exact index numbers and demand for characteristics to develop a new method for incorporating changes on the extensive characteristic margin. Applied to U.K. data on new car sales, our method leads to revisions in estimated inflation rates for this commodity group that are both plausible and quantitatively important.
We investigate dynamically inconsistent time preferences across contexts with and without interpersonal trade-offs. In a longitudinal experiment, participants make a series of intertemporal allocation decisions of real-effort tasks between themselves and another person. Our results reveal that agents are present-biased when making choices that affect only themselves but not when choosing on behalf of others. Despite this asymmetry, we find no evidence for time-inconsistent generosity, that is, when choices involve trade-offs between one's own and others' consumption. Structural estimations reveal no individual-level correlation of present bias across contexts. Discounting in social situations thus seems to be conceptually different from discounting in individual situations.
We show that New Keynesian models with frictionless labor supply face a challenge: given standard parameters, they cannot simultaneously match plausible estimates of marginal propensities to consume (MPCs), marginal propensities to earn (MPEs), and fiscal multipliers. A HANK model with sticky wages provides a solution to this trilemma.
While recent work suggests democracy does cause growth, the channels through which this effect occurs remain unclear. Exploiting quasi-random variation in the timing of district-level political regime changes induced by the collapse of President Suharto's government, we study the microlevel drivers of the democracy-growth relationship. Using Indonesian firm-level data, we find that democratization leads to an increase in firm productivity, a critical determinant of economic growth. Furthermore we find evidence of an improvement in the quality of local business regulations and the business environment for firms.
We study if U.S. members of Congress who experienced an economic recession during early adulthood vote differently on redistribution-specific bills. We find that politicians who experienced a recession hold more conservative positions on redistribution, even compared to members of the same party. In light of recent empirical evidence showing that voters become more supportive of redistribution following a recession, our findings suggest that macroeconomic shocks might have a polarizing effect: recessions can create an ideological wedge between voters and their future representatives. We hypothesize and present evidence suggesting that this wedge might be explained by politicians' more privileged background.
Inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global oil market. We establish this result using a structural VAR model of the global oil market that jointly identifies transmissions of oil demand and supply shocks through real oil prices to both expected and actual inflation. We demonstrate that economic activity shocks have a significantly longer-lasting effect on inflation expectations and actual inflation than other types of real oil price shocks, and resolve disagreements around the role of oil prices in explaining the missing deflation puzzle of the Great Recession.
There is substantial waste in U.S. healthcare but little consensus on how to combat it. We identify one source of waste: long-term care hospitals (LTCHs). Using the entry of LTCHs into hospital markets in an event study design, we find that most LTCH patients would have counterfactually received care at Skilled Nursing Facilities—facilities that provide medically similar care but are paid significantly less—and that substitution to LTCHs leaves patients unaffected or worse off on all dimensions we can objectively measure. Our results imply Medicare could save about $4.6 billion per year by not allowing discharge to LTCHs.
Using administrative data from a large and diverse emergency department (ED), we examine the impact of race concordance between patients and physicians on physician decision-making and patient health outcomes. We find that patient-physician race concordance increases consultation time and decreases the probability of inpatient admission and diagnostic testing. Subsequently, race-concordant patients have lower revisit rates after ED discharge. The effect of race concordance is largely driven by patients who had less serious illnesses and whose diseases had nonspecific symptoms or less clear causes. The results are best explained by the informational and communication mechanism.
A large-scale microcredit expansion program—together with a credit bureau accessible to all lenders—can enable unbanked borrowers to build a credit history, facilitating their transition to commercial banks. Loan-level data from Rwanda show the program improved access to credit and reduced poverty. A sizable share of first-time borrowers switched to commercial banks, which cream-skim less risky borrowers and grant them larger, cheaper, and longer-maturity loans. Switchers have lower default risk than nonswitchers and are not riskier than other bank borrowers. Switchers also obtain better loan terms from banks compared with first-time bank borrowers without a credit history.
Evaluations of energy efficiency programs reveal that realized savings consistently fall short of projections. We decompose this “performance wedge” using data from the Illinois Home Weatherization Assistance Program (IHWAP) and a machine learning-based event study research design. We find that bias in engineering models can account for up to 41% of the wedge, primarily from overestimated savings in wall insulation. Heterogeneity in workmanship can also account for a large fraction (43%) of the wedge, while the rebound effect can explain only 6%. We find substantial heterogeneity in energy-related benefits from IHWAP projects, suggesting opportunities for better targeting of investments.
Despite decades of research on heuristics and biases, evidence on the effect of large incentives on cognitive biases is scant. We test the effect of incentives on four widely documented biases: base-rate neglect, anchoring, failure of contingent thinking, and intuitive reasoning. In laboratory experiments with 1,236 college students in Nairobi, we implement three incentive levels: no incentives, standard lab payments, and very high incentives. We find that very high stakes increase response times by 40% but improve performance only very mildly or not at all. In none of the tasks do very high stakes come close to debiasing participants.
We test whether the provision of multiple labeled savings accounts affects savings and downstream outcomes in an experiment with 761 microentrepreneurs in urban Malawi. Treatment respondents received one or multiple savings accounts, in the form of lockboxes or mobile money. We find that while providing additional boxes increased savings by 40%, technical issues marred the efficacy of a second mobile money account. Data from novel high-frequency surveys suggest that both types of accounts had impacts on downstream outcomes, including farming decisions and credit extended to customers. We do not detect differential downstream effects by the number or modality of accounts.
More than 98 million adolescent girls are not in school. Can girls influence their schooling without changes in their family's economic environment? In Rajasthan, India, we examine the impact of a school-based life skills program that seeks to address low aspirations, narrow societal roles for girls and women, restricted networks of social support, and limited decision-making power. We find the intervention causes a 25% decline in school dropout that persists from seventh grade through the transition to high school. Improvements in socioemotional support among girls exposed to the intervention seem especially important in their decision to stay in school.
We examine the effect of attending stand-alone technical high schools in Connecticut using regression discontinuity. Male students are 10 percentage points more likely to graduate from high school and have half a semester less time enrolled in college. Male students have 32% higher average quarterly earnings. Earnings effects may in part reflect general skills: male students have higher attendance rates and test scores, industry fixed effects explain less than one-third of earnings gains, and large earnings gains persist past traditional college going years. Attending a technical high school does not affect the outcomes of female students.
We propose relaxing the first-order conditions in optimization to approximate rational consumer choice. We assess the magnitude of departures with a new, axiomatically founded measure that admits multiple interpretations. Standard inequality tests of rationality for any given reference class of preferences can be conveniently repurposed to measure goodness-of-fit with that class. Another advantage of our approach is that it is applicable in any context where the first-order approach is meaningful (e.g., convex budget sets arising from progressive taxation). We apply these ideas to shed new light on existing portfolio-choice data.
We show how to use commuting flows to infer the spatial distribution of income within a city. A simple workplace choice model predicts a gravity equation for commuting flows whose destination fixed effects correspond to wages. We implement this method with cell phone transaction data from Dhaka and Colombo. Model-predicted income predicts separate income data, at the workplace and residential level, and by skill group. Unlike machine learning approaches, our method does not require training data, yet it achieves comparable predictive power. We show that hartals (transportation strikes) in Dhaka reduce commuting more for high model-predicted wage and high skill commuters.
How unequal are the gains from trade? This paper develops a structural framework to quantify the consequences of international trade on welfare of consumers across the income distribution, allowing for nonhomothetic demand and endogenous quality choices by firms. Using random coefficients demand estimation techniques, I infer demand and supply parameters, as well as household-specific price indexes for more than 3,000 distinct industries and find the gains from trade to be moderately unequal except in wealthier and small economies. Further, not accounting for endogenous vertical differentiation would overstate the impact of trade on cost-of-living inequality by close to 50%.
This paper develops a New Keynesian model featuring financial intermediation, short- and long-term bonds, credit shocks, and scope for unconventional monetary policy. The log-linearized model reduces to four equations: Phillips and IS curves, as well as policy rules for the short-term interest rate and the central bank's long-bond portfolio (QE). Credit shocks and QE appear in both the IS and Phillips curves. In equilibrium, optimal monetary policy entails adjusting the short-term interest rate to offset natural rate shocks but using QE to offset credit market disruptions. Use of QE significantly mitigates the costs of a binding zero lower bound.
Recent research offers mixed results concerning the relationship between inflation expectations and consumption, using qualitative measures of readiness to spend. We revisit this question using survey panel data of actual spending from the United States between 2009 and 2012 that also allows us to control for household heterogeneity. We find that durables spending increases with expected inflation only for selected types of households while nondurables spending does not respond to expected inflation. Moreover, spending decreases with expected unemployment. These results imply a limited stimulating effect of inflation expectations on aggregate consumption, which could be reversed if inflation and unemployment expectations move together.
We analyze sectoral labor reallocation and the reversal of urbanization in the United States during the Great Depression. The widespread movement to farms, which serves as a form of migratory insurance during the crisis, is largely toward farms with low levels of mechanization. In contrast, the mechanized agricultural sector sheds workers, many of whom reallocate into low-productivity or subsistence farming. The crisis perverts the normal process of structural change in which workers displaced by farm equipment are released into more productive occupations, suggesting that macroeconomic fluctuations are an important factor determining the labor market consequences of technological change.
We study the finite sample behavior of Lasso-based inference methods such as post–double Lasso and debiased Lasso. We show that these methods can exhibit substantial omitted variable biases (OVBs) due to Lasso's not selecting relevant controls. This phenomenon can occur even when the coefficients are sparse and the sample size is large and larger than the number of controls. Therefore, relying on the existing asymptotic inference theory can be problematic in empirical applications. We compare the Lasso-based inference methods to modern high-dimensional OLS-based methods and provide practical guidance.
This paper studies individual and social motives in tax evasion. We build a simple dynamic model that incorporates these motives and their interaction. The social motives underpin the role of norms and are the source of the dynamics that we study. Our empirical analysis exploits the adoption in 1990 of a poll tax to fund local government in the United Kingdom, which led to widespread evasion. The evidence is consistent with the model's main predictions on the dynamics of evasion.
We measure the prevalence of discrimination between Jordanian host and Syrian refugee children attending school in Jordan. Using a simple sharing experiment, we find only a small degree of out-group discrimination. However, Jordanian children with Palestinian roots do not discriminate at all, suggesting that a family history of refugee status can generate solidarity with new refugees. We also find that parents’ narratives about the refugee crisis are correlated with their children's degree of out-group discrimination, particularly among Syrian refugee children, suggesting that discriminatory preferences are being transmitted through parental attitudes.
We link the county-level rollout of stay-at-home orders during the COVID-19 pandemic to anonymized cell phone records and consumer spending data. We document three patterns. First, stay-at-home orders caused people to stay home: county-level measures of mobility declined 6% to 7% within two days of when the stay-at-home order went into effect. Second, stay-at-home orders caused large reductions in spending in sectors associated with mobility: small businesses and large retail chains. Third, we estimate fairly uniform responses to stay-at-home orders across the country; effects do not vary by county-level income, political leanings, or urban/rural status.
When crises such as disease outbreaks occur in low-income countries, the global response can influence the output of researchers in the most affected locations. This paper investigates the impact of the 2014 West African Ebola epidemic on publication outcomes of endemic country scientists. Driven by collaborations with high-income country scientists in Ebola publications, endemic country scientists with relevant experience increase their publication output. However, the productivity of scientists without relevant experience falls, driving a reduction in non-Ebola publications. Any benefits arising from increased visibility during the epidemic does not appear to spill over to non-Ebola or Africa-led research in the long run.
Using data on primary school children and their teachers, we show that teachers who hold prejudicial attitudes towards an ethnic group create socially and spatially segregated classrooms. Leveraging a natural experiment where newly arrived refugee children are randomly assigned to teachers within schools, we find that teachers' ethnic prejudice, measured by an implicit association test, significantly lowers the prevalence of interethnic social links, increases homophilic ties among host children, and puts refugee children at a higher risk of peer violence. Our results highlight the role of teachers in achieving integrated schools in a world of increasing ethnic diversity.
This paper examines whether job suburbanization caused declines in black employment rates from 1970 to 2000. I find that black workers are less likely than white workers to work in observably similar jobs that are located further from the central city. Using evidence from establishment relocations, I find that this relationship reflects at least in part the causal effect of job location. At the local labor market level, I find that job suburbanization is associated with substantial declines in black employment rates relative to white employment rates. Evidence from nationally planned highway infrastructure corroborates a causal interpretation.
I study Los Angeles Metro Rail's effects using panel data on bilateral commuting flows, a quantitative spatial model, and historically motivated quasi-experimental research designs. The model separates transit's commuting effects from local productivity or amenity effects, and spatial shift-share instruments identify inelastic labor and housing supply. Metro Rail connections increase commuting by 16% but do not have large effects on local productivity or amenities. Metro Rail generates $94 million in annual benefits by 2000 or 12–25% of annualized costs. Accounting for reduced congestion and slow transit adoption adds, at most, another $200 million in annual benefits.
Global terrorist organizations attract radicalized individuals across borders and constitute a threat for both sending and receiving countries. We use unique personnel records from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Daesh) to show that unemployment in sending countries is associated with the number of transnational terrorist recruits from these countries. The relationship is spatially heterogeneous, which is most plausibly attributable to travel costs. We argue that poor labor market opportunities generally push more individuals to join terrorist organizations, but at the same time, limit their ability to do so when longer travel distances imply higher travel costs.
This paper tests costly attention models of consumers' misreaction to opaque taxes. We report an online shopping experiment that involves shrouded sales taxes that are exogenously varied within consumers over time. Some consumers systematically underreact to sales taxes whereas others systematically overreact, but higher stakes decrease both under- and overreaction. This is consistent with consumers using heterogeneous rules of thumb to compute the opaque tax when the stakes are low, but using costly mental effort at higher stakes. The results allow us to differentiate between various theories of limited attention. We also develop novel econometric techniques for quantifying individual differences.
Public procurement bodies increasingly resort to pay-for-performance contracts to promote efficient spending. We show that firm responses to pay-for-performance can widen the inequality in accessing social services. Focusing on the quality bonus payment initiative in Medicare Advantage, we find that higher quality-rated insurers responded to bonus payments by selecting healthier enrollees with premium differences across counties. Selection is profitable because the quality rating fails to adjust for differences in enrollee health. Selection inflated the bonus payments and shifted the supply of high-rated insurance to the healthiest counties, reducing access to lower-priced, higher-rated insurance in the riskiest counties.
We estimate the distribution of well-being among the older U.S. population using an expected utility framework that incorporates differences in consumption, leisure, health, and mortality. We find large disparities in welfare that have increased over time. Incorporating the cost of living with poor health into elderly welfare substantially increases the overall inequality. Disparity measures based on cross-sectional income or consumption underestimate the growth in aggregate welfare inequality. Moreover, health is a better indicator of an individual's relative welfare position than income or consumption.
Politicizing the investigation of politically active groups is harmful for both the justice system and democratic accountability. I test whether members of the U.S. Congress affect the investigation and prosecution of politically active labor unions. Union officers are 1.5 percentage points more likely to be prosecuted when their supported candidate barely loses instead of barely wins (compared to the 3% base rate). Anecdotal evidence and a novel decomposition suggest a role for both union-supported winners protecting allies and union-opposed winners pushing for aggressive prosecution of their opponents. I show that prosecutions undermine unions' strength, and I calculate implications for the incumbency advantage.
I examine why the harmful tradition of female genital mutilation (FGM) persists in certain countries but in others it has been eradicated. People are more willing to abandon their traditions if they are confident that the government is durable enough to set up long-term replacements for them. Using a country-ethnicity panel data set spanning 23 countries from 1970 to 2013 and artificial partition of African ethnic groups by national borders, I show that a one-standard-deviation larger increase in political regime durability leads to a 0.1-standard-deviation larger decline in the share of newly circumcised women, conditional on the presence of an anti-FGM government policy.
A factor stochastic volatility model estimates the common component to output gap estimates produced by the staff of the Federal Reserve, its time-varying volatility, and time-varying, horizon-specific forecast uncertainty. The output gap estimates are uncertain even well after the fact. Nevertheless, the common component is clearly procyclical, and positive innovations to the common component produce movements in macroeconomic variables consistent with an increase in aggregate demand. Heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by the common component's volatility, leads to persistently negative economic responses.
We develop a novel methodology for the proxy variable identification of firm productivity in the presence of productivity-modifying learning and spillovers, which facilitates a unified internally consistent analysis of the spillover effects among firms. Contrary to the popular two-step empirical approach, ours does not postulate contradictory assumptions about firm productivity across the estimation steps. Instead, we explicitly accommodate cross-sectional dependence in productivity induced by spillovers, which facilitates identification of both the productivity and spillover effects simultaneously. We apply our model to study cross-firm spillovers in China's electric machinery manufacturing, with a particular focus on productivity effects of inbound FDI.
Schumpeter (1939) claims that recessions are periods of “creative destruction,” concentrating innovation that is useful for the long-term growth of the economy. However previous research finds that standard measures of firms’ innovation, such as R&D expenditures or raw patent counts, concentrate in booms. We argue that these measures do not capture shifts in firms’ innovative search strategies. We contemplate firms’ choice between exploration versus exploitation over the business cycle and find evidence with more nuanced measures of patent characteristics that firms shift toward exploration during contractions and exploitation during expansions, with a stronger effect for firms in more cyclical industries.
This paper explores the adoption choice of electronic medical records by U.S. hospitals, which could exhibit strategic complements or substitutes. I find complementarities in adoption through a reduced-form analysis with instruments for unobserved market characteristics. I further develop a dynamic oligopoly model to allow for strategic timing incentives that are missing in the static model. Adopting a dominant local vendor could increase per period profits from adoption by 9.2% over choosing a marginal vendor. A counterfactual analysis suggests that an incentive program rewarding coordination, not just adoption, is more effective in achieving interoperability, especially before the widespread adoption of the technology.
Social discount rates (SDRs) are crucial for evaluating the costs of climate change. We show that the fundamental anchor for market-based SDRs is the equilibrium or steady-state real interest rate. Empirical interest rate models that allow for shifts in this equilibrium real rate find that it has declined notably since the 1990s, and this decline implies that the entire term structure of SDRs has shifted lower as well. Accounting for this new normal of persistently lower interest rates substantially boosts estimates of the social cost of carbon and supports a climate policy with stronger carbon mitigation strategies.
Do firearm purchase delay laws reduce aggregate homicide levels? Using variation from a six-month countrywide gun demand shock in 2012/2013, we show that U.S. states with legislation preventing immediate handgun purchases experienced smaller increases in handgun sales. Our findings indicate that this is likely driven by comparatively lower purchases among impulsive consumers. We then demonstrate that states with purchase delays also witnessed comparatively 2% lower homicide rates during the same period. Further evidence shows that lower handgun sales coincided primarily with fewer impulsive assaults and points toward reduced acts of domestic violence.
Aggregate productivity suffers when workers and machines are not matched with their most productive uses. This paper builds a model that features industry-specific markups, industry-specific returns to scale, and establishment-specific distortions and uses it to measure the extent of this misallocation in the economy. Applying the model to restricted U.S. Census microdata on the manufacturing sector suggests that misallocation declined by 13% between 1982 and 2007. The finding of declining misallocation starkly contrasts with the 29% increase implied by the widely used assumptions that all establishments charge the same markup and have constant returns to scale.
We investigate whether the dynamic response of aggregate consumption to monetary policy depends on the distribution of household debt relative to income. Using U.K. loan-level microdata, we propose a novel approach to isolate the fraction of households with a limited ability to smooth consumption. By exploiting time and cross-sectional variation, we show that consumption responds more to monetary policy when the share of highly indebted households is large, but find no state contingency with respect to the overall level of debt-to-income. Our results highlight the role of household heterogeneity for understanding monetary transmission to aggregate consumption.
We investigate whether the Federal Reserve has responded systematically to house and stock prices and whether this response has changed over time using a Bayesian structural VAR model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility. To recover the systematic component of monetary policy, we interpret the interest rate equation in the VAR as an extended monetary policy rule responding to inflation, the output gap, house prices, and stock prices. Our results indicate that the systematic component of monetary policy in the United States responded to real stock price growth significantly but episodically, mainly around recessions and periods of financial instability, and took real house price growth into account only in the years preceding the Great Recession. Around half of the estimated response captures the predictor role of asset prices for future inflation and real economic activity, while the remaining component reflects a direct response to stock prices and house prices.
This study tests whether demand responds symmetrically to price increases and decreases—a seemingly obvious proposition under conventional demand theory that has not been rigorously tested. Exploiting the rapid expansion in Japanese municipal subsidies for child health care in a difference-in-differences framework, we find evidence against conventional demand theory: when coinsurance, our price measure, increases from 0% to 30%, the demand response is more than twice that to a price decrease from 30% to 0%. This result indicates that while economists and policymakers pay little attention, price change direction matters and should be incorporated into welfare analysis.
Violent conflicts, particularly at election times in Africa, are a common cause of instability and economic disruption. This paper studies how firms react to electoral violence using the case of Kenyan flower exporters during the 2008 postelection violence as an example. The violence induced a large negative supply shock that reduced exports primarily through workers' absence and had heterogeneous effects: larger firms and those with direct contractual relationships in export markets suffered smaller production and loss of workers. On the demand side, global buyers were not able to shift sourcing to Kenyan exporters located in areas not directly affected by the violence or to neighboring Ethiopian suppliers. Consistent with difficulties in ensuring against supply-chain risk disruptions caused by electoral violence, firms in direct contractual relationships ramp up shipments just before the subsequent 2013 presidential election to mitigate risk.
This paper explores the impact of water quality on mortality by exploiting a natural experiment: the rise of tea consumption in eighteenth century England. This resulted in an unintentional increase in consumption of boiled water, thereby reducing mortality rates. The methodology uses two identification strategies tying areas with lower initial water quality to larger declines in mortality rates after tea drinking became widespread and following larger volumes of tea imports. Results are robust to the inclusion of controls for income and access to trade. The hypothesis is further bolstered by suggestive evidence from cause specific deaths and early childhood mortality.
We connect gender disparities in research output and collaboration patterns in economics. We first document large gender gaps in research output. These gaps persist across fifty years despite a significant increase in the fraction of women in economics during that time. We further show that output differences are closely related to differences in the coauthorship networks of men and women: women have fewer collaborators, collaborate more often with the same coauthors, and a higher fraction of their coauthors collaborate with each other. Taking into account coauthorship networks reduces the gender output gap by 18%.
This paper presents new evidence showing that parental incarceration increases children's education. I collect criminal records for 90,000 low-income parents who have been convicted of a crime in Colombia, and link the educational attainment of their children. I exploit exogenous variation resulting from the random assignment of judges and extend the standard framework to incorporate both conviction and incarceration decisions. I show that the effect of incarceration for a given conviction threshold can be identified. My results indicate that parental incarceration increases educational attainment by 0.78 years for the children of convicted parents on the margin of incarceration.
Being born in a hospital versus having a traditional birth attendant at home represents the most common early life policy change worldwide. By applying a difference-in-differences approach to register-based individual-level data on the total population, this paper explores the long-term economic effects of the opening of new maternity wards as an early life quasi-experiment. It first finds that the reform substantially increased the share of hospital births and reduced early neonatal mortality. It then shows sizable long-term effects on labor income, unemployment, health-related disability, and schooling. Small-scale local maternity wards yield a larger social rate of return than large-scale hospitals.
This paper considers an unavoidable feature of the school environment, class rank. What are the long-run effects of a student's ordinal rank in elementary school? Using administrative data on all public school students in Texas, we show that students with a higher third-grade academic rank, conditional on achievement and classroom fixed effects, have higher subsequent test scores, are more likely to take AP classes, graduate from high school, enroll in and graduate from college, and ultimately have higher earnings nineteen years later. We also discuss the necessary assumptions for the identification of rank effects and propose new solutions to identification challenges. The paper concludes by exploring the trade-off between higher-quality schools and higher rank in the presence of these rank-based peer effects.
We provide novel estimates of the location, timing, magnitude, and determinants of the start of the previous U.S. housing boom. The housing cycle cannot be interpreted as a single, national event, as different markets began to boom across a decade-long period, some of them multiple times. A fundamental factor, income of prospective buyers, can account for half of the initial jump in price growth, while expansion of purchases by underrepresented minorities cannot. The start of the boom also was financed conventionally, not by subprime mortgages. The latter's share did rise sharply over time, but only after a multiyear lag.
I test whether economic incentives impact peer effects in public-good settings. I study how a visible and subsidized contribution to a public good (installing solar panels) affects peer contributions to the same good that are neither subsidized nor visible (electing green power). Exploiting spatial variation in the feasibility of installing solar panels, I find that on average panels increase voluntary purchases of green power by neighbors. However, when subsidies to solar are high, solar panels reduce peer contributions. The results support the hypothesis that signals drive peer responses to visible public-good contributions and that economic incentives alter those signals.
Occasionally binding constraints (OBCs) like the zero lower bound (ZLB) can lead to multiple equilibria, and so to belief-driven recessions. To aid in finding policies that avoid this, we derive existence and uniqueness conditions for otherwise linear models with OBCs. Our main result gives necessary and sufficient conditions for such models to have a unique (“determinate”) perfect foresight solution returning to a given steady state, for any initial condition. While standard New Keynesian models have multiple perfect-foresight paths eventually escaping the ZLB, price level targeting restores uniqueness. We also derive equilibrium existence conditions under rational expectations for arbitrary nonlinear models.
We propose a new measure of the output gap based on a dynamic factor model that is estimated on a large number of U.S. macroeconomic indicators and which incorporates relevant stylized facts about macroeconomic data (comovements, nonstationarity, and the slow drift in long-run output growth over time). We find that (1) from the mid-1990s to 2008, the U.S. economy operated above its potential and (2) in 2018:Q4, the labor market was tighter than the market for goods and services. Because it is mainly data-driven, our measure is a natural complementary tool to the theoretical models used at policy institutions.
The tension between efficiency and equilibrium is a central feature of economic systems. We examine this tradeoff in a network game with a unique Nash equilibrium in which agents can achieve a higher payoff by following a “collaborative norm.” Subjects establish and maintain a collaborative norm in the circle, but the norm weakens with the introduction of one hub connected to everyone in the wheel. In complex and asymmetric networks of 15 and 21 nodes, the norm disappears and subjects' play converges to Nash. We provide evidence that subjects base their decisions on their degree, rather than the overall network structure.
This paper studies how exporting and importing firms match based on their capability by investigating the change in such exporter-importer matching during trade liberalization. During the recent liberalization of the Mexico-U.S. textile and apparel trade, exporters and importers often switch their main partners as well as change trade volumes. We develop a many-to-many matching model of exporters and importers where partner switching is the principal margin of adjustment, featuring Beckerian positive assortative matching by capability. Trade liberalization achieves efficient global buyer-supplier matching and improves consumer welfare by inducing systematic partner switching. The data confirm the predicted partner-switching patterns.
A key input to quantitative evaluations of transport infrastructure projects is their impact on transport costs. We propose a new method of estimating this impact relying on widely accessible customs data: by using the route choice of exporters. We combine our method with a spatial equilibrium model to study the effects of the massive expressway construction in China between 1999 and 2010. We find transport costs are 20% lower on expressways than on regular roads. The expressways construction increases aggregate exports by 10% and domestic trade by 14%. It generates 5.1% welfare gains, implying a 150% net return to investment.
By the end of 2019, U.S. output was 14% below the level predicted by its pre-2008 trend. To understand why, I develop and estimate a model of the United States with demographics, real and monetary shocks, and the occasionally binding zero lower bound on nominal rates. Demographic shocks generate slow-moving trends in interest rates, employment, and productivity. Demographics alone can explain about 40% of the gap between log output per capita and its linear trend by 2019. By lowering interest rates, demographic changes caused the zero lower bound to bind after the Great Recession, contributing to the slow recovery.
How does one's childhood neighborhood shape political engagement later in life? We study voting rates of children who were displaced by public housing demolitions and moved to higher opportunity areas using housing vouchers. Those displaced during childhood had 11% (2 pp) higher participation in the 2016 Presidential election and were 10% (2.9 pp) more likely to vote in any general election. We argue that the results are unlikely to be driven by changes in incarceration or parental outcomes but rather by political socialization or improvements in education and earnings. These results suggest that housing assistance programs may reduce inequality in political participation.
Wide dispersion is seen in pharmaceutical prices across countries with comparable quality standards. Under monopoly, off-patent and generic drug prices are at least four times higher in the United States than in comparable English-speaking high-income countries. With five or more competitors, off-patent drug prices are similar or lower. Our analysis shows that differential U.S. markups are largely driven by the market power of drug suppliers and are not due to wholesale intermediaries or pharmacies. Furthermore, we show that the traditional mechanism of reducing market power—free entry—is limited because implied entry costs are substantially higher in the United States.
The video entertainment industry is experiencing increases in over-the-top (OTT) video usage and cord-cutting behavior. Using unique panel data from 2012–2016, we document the behavior of the 2.4% of households who “cut the cord” annually. After dropping TV, these households increase internet usage by 22%, reduce payments to multiple-system operators (MSOs) by 50%, and 16% acquire new OTT video subscriptions. These results indicate meaningful substitution between OTT video and TV and suggest that competition authorities should consider broadening market definitions. MSOs appear to have little incentive to degrade OTT video, despite OTT video's contribution to declining TV revenues.
We introduce two empirical strategies harnessing the randomness in school assignment mechanisms to measure school value-added. The first estimator controls for the probability of school assignment, treating take-up as ignorable. We test this assumption using randomness in assignments. The second approach uses assignments as instrumental variables (IVs) for low-dimensional models of value-added and forms empirical Bayes posteriors from these IV estimates. Both strategies solve the underidentification challenge arising from school undersubscription. Models controlling for assignment risk and lagged achievement in Denver and New York City yield reliable value-added estimates. Estimates from models with lower-quality achievement controls are improved by IV.
We exploit changes in U.S. visa policies for nurses to measure the origin-country human capital response to international migration opportunities. Combining data on all migrant departures and postsecondary institutions in the Philippines, we show that nursing enrollment and graduation increased substantially in response to greater U.S. demand for nurses. The supply of nursing programs expanded. Nurse quality, measured by licensure exam pass rates, declined. Despite this, for each nurse migrant, nine additional nurses were licensed. New nurses switched from other degree types but graduated at higher rates than they would have otherwise, increasing the human capital stock in the Philippines.
This paper exploits location choices of all generalist physicians who graduated in Brazil between 2001 and 2013 to study policies aimed at increasing the supply of physicians in underserved areas. We set up and estimate a supply and demand model for physicians. We estimate physicians' locational preferences using a random coefficients discrete choice model. The demand has private establishments competing for physicians with private and public facilities around the country. Policy counterfactuals indicate that quotas in medical schools for students born in underserved areas and the opening of vacancies in medical schools in deprived areas are more cost-effective than financial incentives.
We collect worker month-level panel data from two companies in Beijing for a two-year period before and after the opening of a nearby subway station, which significantly improved public transportation commutes for some workers. We find a significant difference-in-differences increase (12.6% of the standard deviation) in bonus pay, which is strongly correlated to worker-level performance measures, for affected workers relative to unaffected coworkers. We find no evidence that the improved performance is a result of affected workers spending extra time at the workplace. We find suggestive evidence for a relative decline in turnover, consistent with a gain in utility for affected workers.
We estimate the effects of student loan access on educational attainment and labor market returns in New Zealand. We exploit the introduction of a national policy mandating a 50% pass rate for student loan renewals using a regression discontinuity design. Retaining loan access increases reenrollment for students around the threshold, and a majority eventually graduate with a bachelor's degree within seven years. We find that retaining student loan access leads to large labor market returns for struggling students. The additional debt from further borrowing is small relative to the earnings returns and declines quickly due to faster repayment.
The U.S. income tax code encourages marriage for some and discourages marriage for others, but same-sex couples were only recently exposed to these incentives. We estimate marriage responses by exploiting variation in the recognition of same-sex marriages for tax purposes versus earlier papers leveraging smaller changes. Using the American Community Survey, which reports cohabitation and marriage, we estimate a significant though very small marriage elasticity, with further analysis suggesting a higher (though still small) elasticity for low-earning households and in response to federal taxes specifically. Our estimates imply that the 2018 tax reform will increase marriage among high-earning cohabiting couples.
If overcrowding harms health care quality, the impacts of encouraging more people to use services are not obvious. Impacts will depend on whether marginal entrants benefit and whether they benefit enough to offset the congestion externalities imposed on inframarginal users. We develop a general-equilibrium model that formalizes these ideas. We examine them empirically by studying JSY, a program in India that paid women to give birth in medical facilities. We find evidence that JSY increased perinatal mortality in areas with low health-system capacity, was particularly harmful in more-complex births, reduced the quality of facilities' postnatal care, and generated harmful spillovers onto other services.
Little is known about where hotspots of gentrification emerge within a city and the role that some types of businesses play in the process. We develop a method to detect the sectors whose presence heralds the process of gentrification in a neighborhood. We show that these sectors, mostly found in cultural and creative industries, help to anticipate neighborhood change and that their predictive power complements that of traditional gentrification determinants. We also examine mechanisms related to amenities, worker characteristics, and signaling that are consistent with these results. The analysis illustrates the importance of businesses in the sociodemographic dynamics of neighborhoods.
Can revenue sharing of resource rents be a source of distributive conflict? Can cohesive institutions avoid such conflicts? We exploit exogenous variation in local government revenues and new data on local democratic institutions in Nigeria to study these questions. We find a strong link between rents and conflict. Conflicts are highly organized and concentrated in districts and time periods with unelected local governments. Once local governments are elected these relationships are much weaker. We argue that elections produce more cohesive institutions that help limit distributional conflict between groups. Throughout, we confirm these findings using individual level survey data.
We study the circumstances under which public pressure affects judging. We show that crowd pressure biases decisions in favor of the crowd for “subjective decisions” with respect to which the judge has more discretion but not for “objective decisions.” The bias is strengthened after a judge's error against the crowd and when errors are costlier to the crowd. We use data about referees' decisions and errors from the Bundesliga. We exploit three regimes where, due to the introduction of Video Assistance Refereeing (VAR) and COVID-19, both crowd pressure and the likelihood of errors vary.
This paper studies the executive-legislative exchange of centrally allocated benefits (jam) for legislative support in Colombia using data from road building projects, legislative roll-call votes, and a leaked database which uncovered the assignment of road contracts to individual legislators. We draw hypotheses from a model in which an executive spreads jam to sway legislators. We document that assigned projects had excess costs, legislators targeted were more likely to be swing voters in congress, and legislators increased their support for the executive after their contracts were signed. The results are driven by legislators representing remote regions and constituencies with weaker political institutions.
We use newly linked tax records to show that the large responses of UK company owner-managers to personal taxes are due to intertemporal income shifting and not to reductions in real business activity. Around half of this shifting is short-term and helps prevent volatile incomes being taxed more heavily under progressive personal taxes. The remainder reflects systemic profit retention over long periods to take advantage of lower tax rates, including preferential treatment of capital gains. We find no evidence that this tax-induced retention increases business investment. It does, however, substantially reduce the tax revenue raised from high income business owners.
Biofuels offer one approach for reducing carbon emissions. However, the necessary agricultural expansion may endanger tropical forests. I use a dynamic model of land use to disentangle the roles of acreage and yields in the supply of sugarcane ethanol in Brazil. The model is estimated using remote sensing (satellite) information of sugarcane activities. Estimates imply that, at the margin, 92% of new ethanol comes from increases in area and only 8% from increases in yield. Direct deforestation accounts for 19% of area expansion at the margin in the long run. I further assess carbon emissions and deforestation implications from ethanol policies.
Simple functional forms for utility require restrictive structural assumptions that are often contrary to observed behavior. Even so, they are widely used in applied economic research. I address this issue using a two-part adaptive experimental design to compare the predictions of a popular parametric model of decision making under risk to those of non-parametric bounds on indifference curves. Interpreting the latter as an approximate upper bound, I find the parametric model sacrifices very little in terms of predictive success. This suggests that, despite their restrictiveness, simple functional forms may nevertheless be useful representations of preferences over risky alternatives.
We evaluate the effect of vehicle recalls on vehicle transactions in the second-hand market. Using a rich data set of Dutch vehicle registrations, we exploit the quasiexperimental variation in recalls across nearly identical cars. We find strong heterogeneities across market segments: transactions increased for cars with lower listed price or with defects, and decreased for those with higher price or no defects. Based on our theoretical model, this suggests that recalls increase sorting in low-end markets, yet exacerbate adverse selection in high-end markets. Our results shed light on the effect of information arrival in markets subject to uncertainty and information asymmetries.
We use novel survey data to study firms’ inventory contracts. We document facts about the usage of purchase and sale contracts. We find that firms purchase and sell inventory through three contractual arrangements: fixed price and quantity, fixed price only, and fixed quantity only. Those using fixed price and quantity hold the largest share of contracts. The average duration of purchase contracts is not very different from the average duration of sale contracts. We then find that the upward bias in inflation expectations is a feature of firms that do not purchase or sell largely through contracts. Our findings are useful in the calibration of sticky price models.
Are firms sophisticated maximizers, or do they appear to make mistakes? Using transaction data from Ugandan value-added tax returns, we show that sellers and buyers report different amounts 79% of the time, despite invoices being easily cross-checked. Our estimates suggest that most firms are “advantageous misreporters,” but that 25% are “disadvantageous misreporters” who systematically overreport own sales minus purchases such that their tax liability increases. Similarly, many firms—especially disadvantageous misreporters—fail to VAT-report imported inputs they themselves reported at Customs, increasing their liability. On net, unilateral VAT misreporting cost Uganda about US$384 million in foregone 2013–2016 tax revenue.
During the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic, many local authorities made the controversial decision to close schools. We use newly digitized data from newspaper archives on the length of school closures for 165 large U.S. cities during the 1918–1919 flu pandemic to assess the long-run consequences of closing schools on children. We find that the closures had no detectable impact on children's school attendance in 1920, nor on their educational attainment and adult labor market outcomes in 1940. We highlight important differences between the 1918–1919 and COVID-19 pandemics and caution against extrapolating from our null effects to modern-day settings.
We study how homeowners' consumption responds to a negative and anticipated disposable income shock: the beginning of the amortization period on interest-only mortgages. We identify spending behavior through an event study approach, by matching loan-level data that covers the universe of Danish mortgages to detailed administrative registries on borrowers. In response to an average increase in installments worth 9% of income, consumption drops by 3% of income, when amortization begins. The reduction in expenditure is persistent. Borrowers who fail to smooth consumption are highly leveraged and likely to be denied a new interest-only loan, upon expiration.
During the early 1990s, Germany offered temporary protection to 700,000 Yugoslavian refugees fleeing war. By 2000, many had been repatriated. We exploit this natural experiment to investigate the role of returning migrants in boosting export performance upon their return. Using confidential German administrative data, we find that industries with 10% more returning refugees exhibit larger exports between the pre- and postwar periods by 1% to 1.6%. We use exogenous allocation rules for asylum seekers within Germany as an instrument to deal with endogeneity concerns. We show evidence pointing to productivity shifts as the main mechanism behind our results. Consistently, we find our results are driven by refugees in occupations more likely to transfer knowledge, technologies, and best practices.
This paper draws on employer-employee and longitudinal plant data from Mexico to investigate the impact of exports on wage premiums, defined as wages above what workers would receive elsewhere in the labor market. We decompose plant-level average wages into a component reflecting skill composition and a component reflecting wage premiums. Using the late-1994 peso devaluation interacted with initial export propensity as a source of exogenous changes in exports, we find that exports have a significant positive effect on wage premiums and that the effect on wage premiums accounts for essentially all of the medium-term effect of exporting on plant-average wages.
We study the impact of trade-induced changes in labor market conditions on violence within the household. We exploit the local labor demand shocks generated by Cambodia’s WTO accession to assess how changes in the employment of women relative to men affected the risk of intimate partner violence. We document that men in districts facing larger tariff reductions experienced a significant decline in paid employment, whereas women in harder-hit districts increased their entry into the labor force. These changes in employment patterns triggered backlash effects by increasing intimate partner violence, without changes in marriage, fertility, psychological distress, or household consumption.
This paper presents experimental evidence on the impact of a role model on secondary school students’ exam performance in Uganda. Students were individually randomized to see either a movie featuring a female role model, Queen of Katwe, or to see a placebo movie. I find that treatment with the role model immediately before an important national exam leads to students performing better on their exams, particularly in math, with effects largest for female students. Female students exposed to the role model are more likely to remain in education in subsequent years, closing the gender gap with their male peers.
We provide evidence that violence reduces the adoption and use of mobile money in three separate empirical settings in Afghanistan. First, analyzing nationwide mobile money transaction logs, we find that users exposed to violence reduce use of mobile money. Second, using panel survey data from a field experiment, we show that subjects expecting violence are significantly less likely to respond to random inducements to use mobile money. Finally, analyzing nationwide financial survey data, we find that individuals expecting violence hold more cash. Collectively, this evidence suggests that violence can impede the growth of formal financial systems.
We study how increases in the U.S. Social Security full retirement age (FRA) affect benefit-claiming behavior and retirement behavior separately. Using long panels of Social Security administrative data, we implement complementary research designs of a traditional cohort analysis and a regression-discontinuity design. We find that while claiming ages strongly and immediately shift in response to increases in the FRA, retirement ages exhibit persistent “stickiness” at the old FRA of 65. We use several strategies to explore the likely mechanisms behind the stickiness in retirement, and we find suggestive evidence that employers play a role in workers’ responses to the FRA.
This paper uses the universe of mortgage contracts to estimate the response of high-interest lenders to borrower protection regulations aimed at simplifying and making loan terms more transparent. Using a quasi-experimental design, I find that lenders substantially reduce interest rates—by an average of 10%—in order to avoid being subject to borrower protection, without reducing amounts loaned or the number of loans approved. This finding is consistent with high-interest lenders preferring to issue obfuscatory mortgage contracts with lower interest rates rather than more transparent and regulated mortgages with higher interest rates.
This paper examines the effects of high school curriculum reforms on infant health by exploiting sharp and staggered changes across states in core course requirements for graduation. Our results suggest that curriculum reforms significantly reduced the incidence of low birthweight and prematurity for black mothers. For white mothers, the estimated effects are small and generally insignificant. We also explore the mechanisms for observed effects and provide evidence consistent with our explanations. Finally, we calculate a large social gain induced by favorable infant health outcomes. Several robustness checks and different placebo tests support our findings.
We connect two large bodies of scientific inquiry. First, important theories in the social sciences establish that human preferences are reference-dependent. Second, a separate field of research documents substantial differences in preferences and attitudes across genders. Specifically, we examine the universe of official classic chess games (more than 250,000 subjects and 22 million games). This allows us to study differences across genders both in cognitive performance (intensive margin) and in competitive participation (extensive margin), using the fact that personal bests act as reference points. We find that males and females behave very differently around their personal bests in both margins.
We use matched employer-employee data to study the role of the firm in the transmission of income growth into consumption growth. We find that growth in income relative to the firm average (the within-firm component) translates significantly less into consumption than growth in firm average income (the between-firm component). These findings are explained by the lower persistence of the within-firm component of income, better self-insurance for workers more exposed to variations in income growth from the within-firm component, and peer effects in the workplace. Quantitatively, income persistence provides 43% of the explanatory power, self-insurance provides 35%, and peer effects provide 22%.
We examine the propagation of a small unexpected supply shock through a production network and the role financial constraints play in its transmission. Using data on almost all Turkish supplier-customer links, we exploit the heterogeneous impact of an unexpected import-tax increase for identification. We find that this relatively minor shock had a nontrivial economic impact on exposed firms and propagated downstream through affected suppliers. Importantly, we show that low-liquidity firms amplified its transmission.
I use temporal discontinuities in choice sets to identify history dependence in drug demand, finding large and long-term effects. Quasi-randomly assigning a patient to a drug today increases the probability she is taking the same drug four years later by 54 percentage points. History dependence is stronger in patients taking multiple medications and weaker in drugs that are significantly more effective than substitutes. It is also weaker in generics and line extensions, driven by switching from the reference branded drug. I use a pair-specific switching-cost model to capture these patterns and provide suggestive evidence that they affect manufacturers’ entry timing incentives.
This paper provides a nonparametric test for deciding the dimensionality of a policy shock as manifest in the abnormal change in asset returns’ stochastic covariance matrix, following the release of a macroeconomic announcement. We use high-frequency data in local windows before and after the event to estimate the covariance jump matrix and then test its rank. We find a one-factor structure in the covariance jump matrix of the yield curve resulting from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy shocks before the 2007–2009 financial crisis. The dimensionality of policy shocks increased afterwards because of the use of unconventional monetary policy tools.
This paper develops a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We find considerable cross-state heterogeneity in the length, depth, and timing of business cycles. We illustrate the usefulness of these state-level indices for quantifying the main contributors to the economic collapse caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and for evaluating the effectiveness of the Paycheck Protection Program. We also propose an aggregate indicator that gauges the overall weakness of the U.S. economy.
This study proposes an econometric framework to interpret and empirically decompose the difference between instrumental variables (IV) and ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates given by a linear regression model when the true causal effects of the treatment are nonlinear in treatment levels and heterogeneous across covariates. I show that the IV-OLS coefficient gap consists of three estimable components: the difference in weights on the covariates, the difference in weights on the treatment levels, and the difference in identified marginal effects that arises from endogeneity bias. Applications of this framework to return-to-schooling estimates demonstrate the empirical relevance of this distinction in properly interpreting the IV-OLS gap.
We propose methods to estimate and make inferences on conditional quantile processes for models with both nonparametric and (locally or globally) linear components. We derive their asymptotic properties, optimal bandwidths, and uniform confidence bands over quantiles allowing for robust bias correction. Our framework covers the sharp regression discontinuity design, which is used to study the effects of unemployment insurance benefits extensions, focusing on heterogeneity over quantiles and covariates. We show economically strong effects in the tails of the outcome distribution. They reduce the within-group inequality, but can be viewed as enhancing between-group inequality, although they help to bridge the gender gap.
This paper examines methods of inference concerning quantile treatment effects (QTEs) in randomized experiments with matched-pairs designs (MPDs). Standard multiplier bootstrap inference fails to capture the negative dependence of observations within each pair and is therefore conservative. Analytical inference involves estimating multiple functional quantities that require several tuning parameters. Instead, this paper proposes two bootstrap methods that can consistently approximate the limit distribution of the original QTE estimator and lessen the burden of tuning parameter choice. Most especially, the inverse propensity score weighted multiplier bootstrap can be implemented without knowledge of pair identities.
We measure trends in affective polarization in twelve OECD countries over the past four decades. According to our baseline estimates, the United States experienced the largest increase in polarization over this period. Five countries experienced a smaller increase in polarization. Six countries experienced a decrease in polarization. We relate trends in polarization to trends in potential explanatory factors.
We provide a novel decomposition of changing gaps in life expectancy between rich and poor into differential changes in age-specific mortality rates and differences in “survivability.” Declining age-specific mortality rates increases life expectancy, but the gain is small if the likelihood of living to this age is small (ex ante survivability) or if the expected remaining lifetime is short (ex post survivability). Lower survivability of the poor explains half of the recent rise in inequality in the United States and the entire rise in Denmark. Declines in cardiovascular mortality benefited rich and poor, but inequality increased because of differences in lifestyle-related survivability.
We study how news coverage of immigrant criminality impacts voting in one of the most controversial referendums in recent years—the 2009 Swiss minaret ban. We combine a comprehensive crime detection data set with detailed information on newspaper coverage. We first document a large upward distortion in media reporting of immigrant crime during the prereferendum period. Exploiting quasi-random variations in crime incidence, we find a positive first-order effect of news coverage on support for the ban. Our quantification shows that, in absence of the media bias, the pro-ban vote would have decreased from 57.6% to 53.5% at the national level.
We first estimate the direct effects on local workers’ earnings and housing costs from increases in local labor demand caused by gains in city-level manufacturing productivity. We find that local workers benefit from productivity growth, even after subtracting increases in housing costs. These gains are larger for local less educated workers, such that productivity growth reduces local inequality. We then propose and implement a new transparent method of estimating indirect effects of local productivity growth on earnings and housing costs of workers in other cities. We find that these general equilibrium effects are economically important and disproportionately benefit college-educated workers.
We analyze how demand conditions faced by a firm in its export markets affect its innovation decisions. We exploit exogenous firm-level export demand shocks and find that firms respond by patenting more; furthermore, this response is driven by the subset of initially more productive firms. The patent response arises two to five years after the shock, highlighting the time required to innovate. In contrast, the demand shock raises contemporaneous sales and employment for all firms regardless of their productivity. This skewed innovation response to common demand shocks arises naturally from a model of endogenous innovation and competition with firm heterogeneity.
Women are underrepresented in academia in general and economics in particular. I introduce a test to detect an underresearched form of hiring bias: implicit quotas. I derive a test under the null hypothesis of gender-blind hiring that requires no additional information about individual hires and can be used to analyze hiring bias in a variety of other hiring settings. I derive its asymptotic distribution and propose a parametric bootstrap procedure that resamples from the exact distribution. I analyze the distribution of female professors at German universities and find an implicit quota of one or two women on the department level.
Delivering validated information to rural areas is a major challenge in low-income countries. In this paper, we study information provision to rural communities in the context of a global outbreak of an infectious disease—COVID-19. Two weeks after the initial lockdown in March 2020, we conducted a randomized experiment in rural Bangladesh and India to disseminate health information over the phone. We find that relative to information provided via SMS, phone calls can significantly improve people’s awareness and compliance with health guidelines. We also find compliance to be substantially higher among women, which also persists after three months of the campaign.
We estimate the impact of social assistance on youth employment in Denmark, 2000 to 2006. For childless unmarried individuals, maximum welfare payments increased by 55% at age 25. Using administrative panel data, we find a significant disincentive effect among the low-skilled only, for whom employment fell by 2% to 3% and benefit take-up increased by 10% to 14%. Two-thirds of the effect is attributable to transitions from work to welfare and one-third to reduced labor market entry. Heterogeneous estimates along the earnings distribution show that employment responses are concentrated at very low earnings. We find no evidence of an age discontinuity in criminal activities.
Local control of land-use regulation creates a not-in-my-backyard (NIMBY) problem that can suppress housing construction, contributing to rising prices and potentially slowing economic growth. I study how increased local control affects housing production by exploiting a common electoral reform—changing from “at-large” to “ward” elections for town council. These reforms, which are not typically motivated by housing markets, shrink each representative’s constituency from the entire town to one ward. Results from a variety of difference-in-differences estimators show that this decentralization decreases housing units permitted by 20%, with similar effects on multi- and single-family permits. Effects are larger in whiter and higher-income towns.
By exploiting the opening of the Öresund Bridge between Denmark and Sweden, we examine the impact of access to larger labor markets on wages and employment. We show that the bridge generated a substantial increase in the cross-country commuting behavior of Swedes and a 13.5% increase in the average wage of workers in the region. We further show that the wage gains are unevenly distributed: the effect is largest for high-educated men and smallest for low-educated women. Thus, the wage gains come at the cost of increased income inequality and a widening of the gender wage gap, both within and across households.
This paper examines the health tradeoffs associated with the historical expansion in coal-fired electricity generation in the United States. We combine newly digitized data on all major coal-fired power plants for the period 1938–1962 with two complementary difference-in-differences strategies. Coal-fired plants imposed large negative health externalities that were partially offset by the benefits of local electricity generation. The health impacts varied widely according to initial electricity access and evolved as the stock of generating capacity expanded over the sample period. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for both current and future payoffs when designing environmental regulation.
We study the protest behavior of teenagers linked to a student killed by a stray bullet coming from a policeman in Chile. We use administrative data to follow the schoolmates of the victim and those living near the shooting on hundreds of protest and nonprotest days. We find that police violence causes lower protest participation in street rallies but more adherence to test boycotts. These effects appear among schoolmates of the victim and not among students living near the killing. Negative educational consequences suffered by the schoolmates combined with previous results suggest that psychological mechanisms are a plausible explanation.
I study the effects of the U.S. fiscal policy response to the Great Recession, accounting for both standard tools and financial sector interventions. A nonlinear model calibrated to the United States allows me to study the state-dependent effects of different fiscal policies. I combine the model with data on the fiscal policy response to find that the fall in consumption would have been one-third larger in the absence of that response, for a cumulative loss of 7.18%. Transfers and bank recapitalizations yielded the largest fiscal multipliers through new transmission channels that arise from linkages between household and bank balance sheets.
There is a widespread belief that work is less secure than in the past, that an increasing share of workers are part of the “precariat.” It is hard to find much evidence for this in objective measures of job security, but perhaps subjective measures show different trends. This paper shows that in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, workers feel as secure as they ever have in the past 30 years. This is partly because job insecurity is very cyclical and (pre-COVID) unemployment rates very low, but there is also no clear underlying trend towards increased subjective measures of job insecurity. This conclusion seems robust to controlling for the changing mix of the labor force, and it is true for specific subsets of workers.
We analyze dynamic incentives in pension systems created by the use of a small set of final years of earnings to compute benefits. Using social security records and household surveys from Uruguay, we show that self-employed workers and some employees of small firms respond to these incentives by increasing reported earnings in the benefit calculation window. We find evidence that suggests that these responses are explained by changes in earnings reporting and not in total earnings or labor supply. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that this behavior increases the cost of pensions by about 0.2% of the GDP.
Information about inequality can change political attitudes in lab and survey experiments. I use data from the Appalachian Regional Commission and a regression discontinuity design to test whether salient information about local poverty can impact voter behavior in a field setting. I find that when the poorest decile of counties is labeled “economically distressed,” the Democratic share of the Presidential and House popular vote rises in subsequent elections. I present suggestive evidence linking this result to local news coverage, rather than spending or other outcomes.
Economic institutions that impede factor mobility become more costly when an economy experiences substantial transitions such as trade liberalization. I study how trade triggers changes in labor institutions that regulate internal migration in the context of China’s Hukou system. Using a newly collected dataset on prefecture-level migration policies, I document an increase in promigrant regulations following WTO entry and estimate the impact of prefecture-level tariffs on exports on migration regulations from 2001 to 2007. I find that regions facing more export market liberalization enacted more migrant-friendly regulations.
A party’s influence over redistricting increases discontinuously when its seat share in the state legislature exceeds 50%. We apply bunching tests to show that, in the election before redistricting, parties systematically win narrow majorities in legislatures of states where they have lost recent U.S. House races. This trend of losses is reversed after redistricting despite no change in overall House vote shares in states near the cutoff. The pre-to-post-redistricting change in regression discontinuity estimates implies that the party that controls redistricting engineers an 11 percentage point increase in its probability of winning a House race.
We conduct two survey experiments to study which information people choose to consume and how it affects their beliefs. In the first experiment, respondents choose between optimistic and pessimistic article headlines related to the COVID-19 pandemic and are then randomly shown one of the articles. Respondents with more pessimistic prior beliefs tend to prefer pessimistic headlines, providing evidence of confirmation bias. Additionally, respondents assigned to the less preferred article discount its information. The second experiment studies the role of partisan views, uncovering strong source dependence: news source revelation further distorts information acquisition, eliminating the role of priors in article choice.
Measuring the prevalence of active SARS-CoV-2 infections in the general population is difficult because tests are conducted on a small and nonrandom segment of the population. However, hospitalized patients are tested at very high rates, even those admitted for non-COVID reasons. We show how to use information on testing of non-COVID hospitalized patients to obtain tight bounds on population prevalence, under conditions weaker than those usually used. We apply our approach to the population of test and hospitalization data for Indiana, and we validate our approach. Our bounds could be constructed at relatively low cost, and for other heavily tested populations.
Prior studies show that women are more willing to accept lower wages for shorter commutes than men. We show that gender differences in commuting preferences lead to a gender wage gap only if there is a wage penalty for shortening commutes, determined by the geography of jobs. We demonstrate this by showing that the commuting and wage gaps are considerably smaller among workers living near city centers, especially for occupations with a high geographic concentration of high-wage jobs. We highlight the geography of jobs as a key force that amplifies the impact of commuting preferences on the gender wage gap.
We evaluate the impact of a nationwide public health intervention on deaths from sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS), using population data from Denmark in a regression discontinuity research design. The information campaign—implemented primarily through a universal nurse home visiting program—reduced infant mortality by 17.2% and saved between 11.6 and 13.5 lives over 10,000 births. The estimated effect sizes are 11–14 times larger among low-birthweight and preterm infants relative to the overall population. Improvement in infant mortality is concentrated among those with low socioeconomic status and with limited access to health information, thereby reducing health inequities at birth.
We analyze optimal vaccine subsidies in a model integrating disease epidemiology into a market with rational economic agents. The focus is on an intensive vaccine campaign to quell an epidemic in the short run. Across a range of market structures, positive vaccine externalities and optimal subsidies peak for diseases that spread quickly, but not so quickly that everyone is driven to be vaccinated. We assess the practical relevance of this peak—as well as the existence of increasing social returns to vaccination and optimality of universal vaccination—in calibrations to the COVID-19 pandemic.
This study draws on London’s long experience with air pollution in order to improve our understanding of the overall effects of pollution exposure and how and why these effects evolve as locations develop. I compare uniquely detailed new mortality data covering 1866 to 1965 to the timing of London’s famous fog events, which trapped emissions in the city. I show that air pollution was a major contributor to mortality in London over this period and that it interacted strongly with specific infectious diseases. As a consequence of this interaction, reductions in the infectious disease burden substantially altered the health costs of pollution.
We develop a framework to measure the role of hospital allocation in racial disparities in health care and use it to study Black and white heart attack patients. Black patients receive care at lower-performing hospitals than white patients. However, over two decades, the performance gap between hospitals treating Black and white patients shrank by over two-thirds. This progress is due to more rapid performance improvement at hospitals that tended to treat Black patients rather than reallocation of patients. Hospital improvement is correlated with adoption of a productivity-raising input, beta blockers. Our work highlights reallocation and performance improvement as future disparity-reduction levers.
This paper analyzes the effect of incarceration on mortality using administrative data from Ohio between 1992 and 2017. We first document that long-run survival is higher among the incarcerated than similar nonincarcerated defendants. Using event study designs centered around the time of release, we show why: mortality risk halves during the period of incarceration, with large reductions in murders, overdoses, and natural causes of death. However, incarceration does not increase postrelease mortality, and so the overall effect is increased longevity. These estimates reflect the high-risk environment faced by defendants when not incarcerated and suggest noncarceral policies to reduce these risks.
We look at how the arrival of an invention affects wage returns and the probability of moving out of employment for white- and blue-collar co-workers of the inventor. First results suggest that older workers are hurt by the arrival of an invention. This negative effect disappears when we control for education and, in particular, for the time since obtaining the last formal degree, that is, distance to human capital frontier. If anything, this effect is slightly higher for non-STEM than STEM-educated co-workers. This result suggests that retraining programs could be helpful in making the process of creative destruction and economic growth more inclusive.
This paper uses exogenous variation in sleep induced by sunset time to present the first human capital estimates of (i) the effects of child sleep from the developing world and (ii) the long-run effects of child sleep in any context. Later sunset reduces children’s sleep: when the sun sets later, children go to bed later but fail to compensate by waking up later. Sleep-deprived children study less and increase nap time and indoor leisure activities. Short-run sleep loss decreases children’s test scores. Chronic sleep deficits translate into fewer years of education and lower primary and middle school completion rates among school-age children.
This paper shows how policy announcements can be used to manage expectations. Using regional variation in radio exposure, I evaluate the impact of FDR’s 1935 Fireside Chat, in which he showcased the introduction of important social policies, establishing a new expansionary cycle of the New Deal. I document that cities with higher exposure to the announcement exhibited a significant increase in spending on durable goods. The estimated effect is consistent with changes in expectations in line with the policies announced. This paper shows the power of communication as a policy tool.
We study the role of markup dispersion and aggregate TFP for monetary transmission. Empirically, we show that the response of markup dispersion to monetary policy shocks can account for a significant fraction of the aggregate TFP response in the first two years after the shock. Analytically, we show that heterogeneous price rigidity can explain the response of markup dispersion if firms have a precautionary price-setting motive, which is present in common New Keynesian environments. We provide empirical evidence in support of this explanation. Finally, we study the mechanism and its implications in a quantitative model.
Using nonlinear Bayesian methods that fully account for the binding zero lower bound (ZLB), we estimate a large-scale macrofinance DSGE model on U.S. data. Counterfactual analysis suggests that by easing financing conditions, quantitative easing facilitated a net increase in aggregate investment. The resulting expansion of firms’ production capacities lowered their marginal costs. These disinflationary supply side effects dominated over the inflationary effects induced by the stimulus to aggregate demand. At the ZLB, the concomitant rise in real interest rates, in turn, induced a net fall in aggregate consumption.
This paper studies the joint impact of exporting and abatement on the environmental performance of Chinese manufacturers. For two common air pollutants (⁠SO2 and industrial dust) we document that (a) exporters are significantly less emissions-intensive relative to their nonexporting counterparts and (b) this difference cannot be explained by differential rates of abatement alone. Employing variation in trade and environmental conditions across time and space, we quantify the impact of endogenous export and abatement decisions on firm-level emissions. We find that exporting reduces emissions by at least 36% across pollutants. We explore underlying determinants of export-driven reductions in emissions intensity.
In this paper, we estimate the trade effects of a transit system upgrading that streamlines border processing in developing countries. Our empirical approach combines transaction-level export data from El Salvador with unique data that distinguishes export flows that were processed on the transit system. Our results indicate that the new transit system lowered regulatory border costs and raised exports. At the low end, our back-of-the-envelope estimate of the return to investment is US$ 3-to-1. This evidence informs a policy covered by the 2013 WTO Agreement of Trade Facilitation.
We obtain a canonical representation for block matrices. The representation facilitates simple computation of the determinant, the matrix inverse, and other powers of a block matrix, as well as the matrix logarithm and the matrix exponential. These results are particularly useful for block covariance and block correlation matrices, where evaluation of the Gaussian log-likelihood and estimation are greatly simplified. We illustrate this with an empirical application using a large panel of daily asset returns. Moreover, the representation paves new ways to model and regularize large covariance/correlation matrices, test block structures in matrices, and estimate regressions with many variables.
We propose an Optimal candlesticK (OK) estimator for the spot volatility using high-frequency candlestick observations. Under a standard infill asymptotic setting, we show that the OK estimator is asymptotically unbiased and has minimal asymptotic variance within a class of linear estimators. Its estimation error can be coupled by a Brownian functional, which permits valid inference. Our theoretical and numerical results suggest that the proposed candlestick-based estimator is much more accurate than the conventional spot volatility estimator based on high-frequency returns. An empirical illustration documents the intraday volatility dynamics of various assets during the Fed chairman’s recent congressional testimony.
We evaluate a Danish reform focused on improving language training for those granted refugee status on or after January 1, 1999. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design, we find a significant, permanent, positive effect on earnings. This effect emerged after completion of language classes and was accompanied by additional schooling and a higher probability of working in complex jobs, consistent with language training, rather than other minor aspects of the reform, producing the results.
Why do cities differ so much in productivity? A long literature has sought out systematic sources, such as inherent productivity advantages, market access, agglomeration forces, or sorting. We document that up to three-quarters of the measured regional productivity dispersion is spurious, reflecting the “luck of the draw” of finite counts of idiosyncratically heterogeneous plants that happen to operate in a given location. The patterns are even more pronounced for new plants, hold for alternative productivity measures, and broadly extend to European countries. This large role for individual plants suggests a smaller role for places in driving regional differences.
A key parameter in the analysis of wage inequality is the elasticity of substitution between skilled and unskilled labor. We show that the empirical literature is consistent with both publication and attenuation bias in the estimated inverse elasticities. Publication bias, which exaggerates the mean reported inverse elasticity, dominates and results in corrected inverse elasticities closer to zero than the typically published estimates. The implied mean elasticity is 4, with a lower bound of 2. Elasticities are smaller for developing countries. To derive these results, we use nonlinear tests for publication bias and model averaging techniques that account for model uncertainty.
This paper examines the individual and aggregate costs of ethnic discrimination. Studying Germans in the United States during World War I, an event that abruptly downgraded their previously high social standing, we show that anti-German sentiment was strongly associated with counties’ casualties in the war, leading to subsequent outmigration of Germans. Such relocation to evade discrimination was costly for German workers. However, counties with larger outflows of Germans, who tended to be well-trained manufacturing workers, incurred economic costs too, including a drop in average annual manufacturing wages of 0.6% to 2.2%. This effect lasted at least until 1930.
We estimate the effect of money supply changes on the real economy by exploiting a recurring natural experiment: maritime disasters in the Spanish Empire (1531–1810) that resulted in the loss of substantial amounts of silver money. We find that negative money supply shocks caused Spanish real output to decline. A transmission channel analysis highlights slow price adjustments and credit frictions as mechanisms through which money supply changes affected the real economy. Especially large output declines occurred in textile manufacturing against the backdrop of a credit crunch that impaired merchants’ ability to supply their manufacturers with inputs.
Workplace safety policies are designed to ensure that employers internalize the costs of injuries, but employers can undermine these policies with threats of dismissal. We show that states’ adoption of the public policy exception to at-will employment—an exception forbidding employers from firing workers for filing workers’ compensation claims or for whistleblowing—led to a substantial reduction in injuries. The widespread adoption of the public policy exception explains 14% of the decline in fatal injury rates between 1979 and 1994. Statutory protections from retaliatory firing also improved safety, but only when employers faced sufficiently strong penalties for violating them.
We examine the effect of forest loss around the time of birth on infant mortality and the early childhood health of children in rural Nigeria. We find that forest loss leads to an increase in neonatal mortality—one standard deviation of forest loss is associated with a 9%–15% increase in the likelihood of death within the first month of life. The mechanism linking forest loss to infant death is maternal exposure to malaria when the child is in utero. Such exposure also results in worse birth outcomes, proxied by lower weight-for-age and height-for-age of surviving infants.
Why do freeways affect spatial structure? We identify and quantify the local disamenity effects of freeways. Freeways cause slower growth in central neighborhoods (where local disamenities exceed regional accessibility benefits) compared with outlying neighborhoods (where access benefits exceed disamenities). A quantitative model calibrated to Chicago attributes one-third of the effect of freeways on central-city decline to reduced quality of life. Barrier effects are a major factor in the disamenity value of a freeway. Local disamenities from freeways, as opposed to their regional accessibility benefits, had large effects on the spatial structure of cities, suburbanization, and welfare.
This paper studies quality upgrading to escape competition from low-wage countries and proposes a new channel that does not rely on access to new inputs or markets. Informed by Peruvian apparel firms’ response to China’s WTO accession, I introduce factor specificity in a multi-product-firm model. Profitability losses due to competition in low-quality segments induce firms to reallocate specific factors to produce high-quality varieties for high-income countries. Gains from this channel are large. Using an observed quality measure, I show that import competition substantially increases domestic firms’ exports and high-quality export shares. Firms also reduce prices, resulting in additional welfare gains.
We run an experiment to elicit preferences over state-contingent timed payouts. We analyze the data using a new revealed preference method (building on Nishimura et al., 2017) that can test for consistency with utility functions that increase with a given preorder. We find that correlation neutrality, a property implied by discounted expected utility, is widely violated and there is, instead, strong evidence of intertemporal correlation averse behavior. Our results suggest that utility is not additive across both states and time and that credible models of choice need to allow people to prefer negative correlation in timed payouts.
We document two stylized facts in expectational survey data. First, professional forecasters overrevise their macroeconomic expectations. Second, such overrevisions mask evidence of both over- and underreactions to public signals. We show that the first fact is inconsistent with standard models of noisy rational expectations, but consistent with behavioral and strategic models. The second fact, in contrast, presents a puzzle for existing theories. We propose an extension of noisy rational expectations that allows forecasters to be overconfident in their information. We show that this feature when combined with the endogeneity of public signals leads to over- and undereactions consistent with the data.
Does low trust in workers discourage firms from hiring? We conduct an experiment in Ghana with real entrepreneurs who have the option to hire anonymous workers for a trivial but tedious task. Shirking attracts no penalty and completion of the task is an indicator of trustworthiness. We elicit employers’ expectations and study how they change with random signals of workers’ previous behavior. We find that employers underestimate workers’ trustworthiness, which reduces hiring and profits. Negative signals lower employers’ expectations, while positive signals do not affect them. This asymmetry can help to sustain an equilibrium with limited experimentation and biased beliefs.
The revealed preference methodology allows an observer to infer preferences from choices. This paper extends this fundamental idea by experimentally identifying the preference for basing choices on simple decision rules. Subjects not only make case-by-case portfolio allocations but also design a simple investment rule for selecting portfolios. They then choose between these two decision modes for an additional set of problems. The majority opt for the rule interface and in most cases choose a simple investment rule that cannot be rationalized by any simple utility function or accounted for by reductions in decision time or by cognitive costs.
This paper studies how better access to public health insurance affects infant mortality during pandemics. The analysis combines cross-state variation in mandated eligibility for Medicaid with two influenza pandemics that arrived shortly before and after the program’s introduction in 1965. We find that better access to public health insurance in high-eligibility states substantially reduced pandemic infant mortality. The reductions in pandemic infant mortality are too large to be attributable solely to new Medicaid recipients, suggesting that expanded access to public health insurance helped mitigate disease transmission among the broader population.
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to enormous data movements that strongly affect parameters and forecasts from standard Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs). To address these issues, we propose BVAR models with outlier-augmented stochastic volatility (SV) that combine transitory and persistent changes in volatility. The resulting density forecasts are much less sensitive to outliers in the data than standard BVARs. Predictive Bayes factors indicate that our outlier-augmented SV model provides the best fit for the pandemic period, as well as for earlier subsamples of high volatility. In historical forecasting, outlier-augmented SV schemes fare at least as well as a conventional SV model.
Gravity equations are an important tool in empirical international trade research. We study to what extent sector-level parameters can be recovered from aggregate gravity equations estimated via Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood. We show that in the leading case where trade cost regressors do not vary at the sector level, estimates obtained with aggregate data have a clear interpretation as a weighted average of sectoral elasticities. Otherwise the estimates are biased, but researchers may possibly infer the direction of the bias. We illustrate our results by revisiting Baier and Bergstrand’s (2007) influential study of the effects of free trade agreements.
We study the effects of Secure Communities, an immigration enforcement program that dramatically increased interior removals of Hispanic noncitizens from the United States, on participation in means-tested social insurance programs among co-ethnic citizens. Exploiting county-level variation in the roll-out of enforcement together with its ethnic specificity, we find that Hispanic-headed citizen households significantly reduced their participation in two large federal safety net programs. Our results are most consistent with network effects that propagate fear through minority communities rather than stigma or lack of benefit information.
Selection forces often confound the effects of policy changes. In the immigration enforcement context, we tackle this challenge tracking arrested immigrants along the deportation pipeline, isolating local and federal efforts. 80% of counties exhibit strategic substitutabilities in responding to federal enforcement, while the federal level is very effective at directing its efforts toward cooperative counties. We estimate that changes in the profile of immigration cases, and not weakened federal efforts, drove the reduction in deportations following a 2011 shift in federal priorities. Reducing immigration-court discretion and removing their dependence from the executive would have a significant impact on deportations.
We leverage the discontinuity in the assignment mechanism of the Small and Medium Enterprise Instrument—the first European research and development (R&D) subsidy targeting small firms—to provide the broadest quasi-experimental evidence on R&D grants over both geographical and sectoral scopes. Grants trigger sizable impacts on a wide range of firm-level outcomes. Heterogeneous effects are consistent with grants reducing financial frictions. This reduction is due to funding rather than certification. We also provide direct causal evidence on pure certification—signaling not attached to funding—and show that firms that only receive “quality stamps” do not improve their performance. Finally, our estimates suggest that the scheme produces private returns that are positive and comparable to those of the U.S. Small Business Innovation Research program, while also generating geographical and sectoral spillovers in the form of increased rates of entrepreneurial entry.
We collect data on prices, travel costs, and farmer decisions to quantify market access for chemical fertilizer and its impact on agricultural productivity in 1,180 villages in Northern Tanzania. Villages at the bottom of the travel cost-adjusted input price distribution face 40%–55% less favorable prices than those at the top. A standard deviation increase in village-level remoteness is associated with 20%–25% lower input adoption. A spatial model of input adoption conservatively estimates that total trade costs are 4 times pecuniary travel costs. Counterfactuals suggest that halving travel costs would more than double adoption and reduce the adoption-remoteness gradient by 63%.
This paper quantifies preferences for income equality and mobility by generating statistics that are uncorrelated with beliefs and can be interpreted as marginal rates of substitution (MRS). All things being equal, U.S. residents are willing to reduce average income by $2,744 to reduce the 90/10 income inequality ratio one unit, and $1,228 to increase income mobility from the bottom quintile one percentage point. Democrats and Independents have similar preferences for both social variables, while Republicans have an MRS that is about two-thirds that of Democrats and Independents for both income inequality and mobility.
We study how air pollution impacts the U.S. labor market by analyzing the effects of drifting wildfire smoke. We link satellite-based smoke plume data with labor market outcomes to estimate that an additional day of smoke exposure reduces quarterly earnings by about 0.1%. Extensive margin responses, including employment reductions and labor force exits, explain 13% of the overall earnings losses. The implied welfare costs from lost earnings due to air pollution exposure is on par with standard valuations of the mortality burden. The findings highlight the importance of labor market channels in air pollution policy responses.
This paper studies the impacts of the 2018 U.S. tariff surges on export prices and adjustments of sales across different markets of Chinese exporters. The finding that U.S. tariffs did not affect the free-on-board price of Chinese exports is robust to controlling for firm-related fixed effects. While firms’ exports to the United States dropped significantly, exports to the EU increased moderately and domestic sales or exports to other foreign markets were barely affected. Finally, by surveying managers of exporting firms, we shed light on potential impediments to firms’ adjustments of export prices and sales.
In many cities, incentives and regulations lead developers to integrate low-income housing into market-rate buildings. How cost-effective are these policies? I study take-up of a tax incentive in New York City using a model in which developers trade off between tax savings and pretax income. Estimating the model using policy variation and microdata on development from 2003 to 2015, I find a citywide marginal fiscal cost of $1.6 million per low-income unit. Differences in neighborhoods, not developer incidence, explain the cost premium over other housing programs. Weighing costs against estimates of neighborhood effects, I conclude middle-class neighborhoods offer “opportunity bargains.”
The canonical hot hand fallacy result was recently reversed, based largely on a single statistic, and a data set that was underpowered for individual-level testing. Here we perform a more robust analysis, testing whether hot hand performance exists across (i) data sets: four different controlled shooting experiments, (ii) time: multiple sessions per individual spread across a six month gap, and (iii) various (improved) approaches to statistical testing. We find strong evidence of hot hand performance, both across data sets and within individuals across time. Moreover, in a study of beliefs, we find that expert observers can successfully predict which shooters get the hottest.
We develop a framework for measuring under- and overreaction in expectation formation. The basic insight is that under- and overreaction to new information is identified (up to sign) by the impulse response function of forecast errors. Our measurement procedure yields estimates of under- and overreaction to different shocks at various horizons. In an application to inflation expectations, we find that forecasters underreact to aggregate shocks but overreact to idiosyncratic shocks. We illustrate how our approach can be used to (i) quantify the importance of different biases, (ii) estimate theoretical models, and (iii) shed light on existing empirical approaches and puzzles.
We show that the cyclicality of output growth is a sufficient predictor for the cyclicality of markups in models that micro-found variable markups through dynamic trade-offs. We use data on markups from the U.S. as well as survey data on firms’ expectations from New Zealand to test the predictions of these models and find evidence in favor of their mechanisms. Finally, we study the implications of these mechanisms for cyclicality of markups in a calibrated general equilibrium model. In particular, we find that the degree of hump-shaped response in output is crucial for the direction of aggregate markup cyclicality.
Instrumental variables (IVs) and control variables are frequently used to assist researchers in investigating endogenous treatment effects. When used together, their identities are typically assumed to be known. However, in many practical situations, one is faced with a large and mixed set of covariates, some of which can serve as excluded IVs, some can serve as control variables, whereas others should be discarded from the model. It is often not possible to classify them based on economic theory alone. This paper proposes a data-driven method to classify a large (increasing with sample size) set of covariates into excluded IVs, controls, and noise to be discarded. The resulting IV estimator is shown to have the oracle property (to have the same first-order asymptotic distribution as the IV estimator, assuming the true classification is known).
This paper examines the impact of retail e-commerce on pricing behavior and welfare. Using Japanese data, we find that e-commerce lowered relative inflation rates for goods sold intensively online. We use long time series and historical catalog sales as an instrument for e-commerce sales intensity. The entry of e-commerce firms raised the rate of intercity price convergence in physical stores for goods sold intensively online, but not for other goods, which suggests e-commerce enhances price arbitrage. We estimate that e-commerce lowered variety-adjusted prices on average by 0.9% between 1996 and 2014, and more in cities with highly educated populations.
Programs implemented by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are often more effective than comparable efforts by other actors, yet relatively little is known about how implementer identity drives final outcomes. By combining a stratified field experiment in India with a triple-difference estimation strategy, we show that a local development NGO’s prior engagement with target communities increases the effectiveness of a technology promotion program implemented in these areas by at least 30%. This “NGO reputation effect” has implications for the generalizability and scalability of evidence from experimental research conducted with local implementation partners.
We study a 2008 policy reform in which Medicare revised its hospital payment system to better reflect patients’ severity of illness. We construct a simulated instrument that predicts a hospital’s policy-induced change in reimbursement using pre-reform patients and postreform rules. The reform led to large persistent changes in Medicare payment rates across hospitals. Hospitals that faced larger gains in Medicare reimbursement increased the volume of Medicare patients they treated. The estimates imply a volume elasticity of 1.2. To accommodate greater volume, hospitals increased nurse employment, but also lowered length of stay.
We find that sin-good purchases are highly concentrated, with 10% of households paying more than 80% of taxes on alcohol and cigarettes. Total sin-tax burdens are poorly explained by demographics (including income) but are well explained by eight household clusters defined by purchasing patterns. The two most taxed clusters comprise 8% of households, pay 63% of sin taxes, and are older, less educated, and lower income. Taxes on sugary beverages broaden the tax base but add to the burdens of heavily taxed households. Efforts to increase sin taxes should consider the heavy burdens borne by few households.
We examine the impact of government funding for R&D—and defense-related R&D in particular—on privately conducted R&D and its ultimate effect on productivity growth. We estimate longitudinal models that relate privately funded R&D to lagged government-funded R&D using industry-country level data from OECD countries and firm level data from France. To deal with the potentially endogenous allocation of government R&D funds, we use changes in predicted defense R&D as an instrumental variable. In many OECD countries, expenditures for defense-related R&D represent by far the most important form of public subsidies for innovation. In both datasets, we uncover evidence of “crowding in” rather than “crowding out,” as increases in government-funded R&D for an industry or a firm result in significant increases in private sector R&D in that industry or firm. On average, a 10% increase in government-financed R&D generates a 5% to 6% additional increase in privately funded R&D. We also find evidence of international spillovers, as increases in government-funded R&D in a particular industry and country raise private R&D in the same industry in other countries. Finally, we find that increases in private R&D induced by increases in defense R&D result in productivity gains.
We analyze the impact of Covid-19 on productivity using data from an innovative monthly firm survey that asks for quantitative impacts of Covid-19 on inputs and outputs. We find that total factor productivity (TFP) fell by up to 6% during 2020–2021. The overall impact combined large reductions in ‘within-firm’ productivity, with offsetting positive ‘between-firm’ effects as less productive sectors, and less productive firms within them, contracted. Despite these large pandemic effects, firms’ post-Covid forecasts imply surprisingly little lasting impact on aggregate TFP. We also see significant heterogeneity over firms and sectors, with the greatest impacts in those requiring extensive in-person activity.
This paper studies how the expansion of segregated neighborhoods eroded black wealth in prewar American cities. Using a novel sample of matched addresses, we find that over a single decade rental prices soared by roughly 50% on city blocks that transitioned from all white to majority black. Meanwhile, pioneering black families paid a 28% premium to buy a home on a majority white block, after which their homes lost 10% of their value. These findings strongly suggest that segregated housing markets cost black families much of the gains associated with moving north during the Great Migration.
This paper analyzes gender differences in working patterns and wages on Amazon Mechanical Turk, a popular online labor platform. Using information on 2 million tasks, we find no gender differences in task selection nor experience. Nonetheless, women earn 20% less per hour on average. Gender differences in working patterns are a significant driver of this wage gap. Women are more likely to interrupt their working time on the platform with consequences for their task completion speed. A follow-up survey shows that the gender differences in working patterns and hourly wages are concentrated among workers with children.
Participation payments are used in many transactions about which people know little but can learn more: incentives for medical trial participation, signing bonuses for job applicants, or price rebates on consumer durables. Who opts into the transaction when given such incentives? We theoretically and experimentally identify a composition effect whereby incentives disproportionately increase participation among those for whom learning is harder. Moreover, these individuals use less information to decide whether to participate, which makes disappointment more likely. The learning-based composition effect is stronger in settings in which information acquisition is more difficult.
This paper uses new data on the removal of local, sector-specific barriers to firm entry across 1,800 municipalities in Peru to estimate the impact on firm productivity and markups. New legislation in 2013 strengthened the national competition authority's mandate to enforce the elimination of local entry barriers, providing a quasi-experimental setting to identify the impact of competition on productivity within the controlled institutional environment of a single country. We find that the elimination of local entry barriers boosted productivity, pointing to the critical role of subnational market entry barriers in explaining countries’ laggard productivity performances despite liberalized national regulatory environments.
We assess the predictive power of survey measures of social capital with a new behavioral data set that examines whether citizens report a lost wallet to its owner. Using data from more than 17,000 lost wallets across 40 countries, we find that survey measures of social capital—especially questions concerning generalized trust or generalized morality—are strongly and significantly correlated with country-level differences in wallet reporting rates. A second finding is that lost wallet reporting rates predict unique variation in the outputs of social capital, such as economic development and government effectiveness, not captured by existing measures.
We study the removal of information from a market, such as a job-applicant screening tool. We characterize how removal harms groups with relative advantage in that information: typically those for whom the banned information is most precise relative to alternative signals. We illustrate this using recent bans on employers’ use of credit report data. Bans decrease job-finding rates for Black job-seekers by 3 percentage points and increase involuntary separations for Black new hires by 4 percentage points, primarily because other screening tools, such as interviews, have around 60% higher standard deviation of signal noise for Black relative to white job-seekers.
Firms’ success in international markets depends on their product’s quality, prices, markups, and marginal cost. However, causally identified empirical evidence for the effect of trade policies that address nontariff barriers on these mechanisms is rare. To fill this gap, we exploit a quasinatural experiment in Denmark and examine the effects of an export support policy aimed at reducing nontariff barriers to trade. We find that export support raises firm-level exports within markets. However, export support does not affect prices, quality, markups, or marginal costs. Instead, the results support trade theory predicting that firms grow in export markets by shifting demand.
Export promotion at the extensive margin is a key concern of governments. We develop measures of how far firms in origin sectors are from break-even entry in destination markets. The measure is based on Almost Ideal gravity featuring heterogeneous price and income elasticities. Tobit estimation of 2006 trade flows for 75 countries and 25 sectors generates latent trade bias (LTB)—the latent (projected) trade share of nonpartners minus the as-if-frictionless trade share. Explained LTB variance decomposition shows that variable trade costs (distance and tariffs together) account for zero flows more than do fixed trade costs (entry cost) and income variation.
We investigate the impact of peer interaction on the quality of financial decision making in a laboratory experiment. Face-to-face communication with a randomly assigned peer significantly improves the quality of subsequent private decisions even though simple mimicry would have the opposite effect. We present evidence that the mechanism involves general conceptual learning (because the benefits of communication extend to previously unseen tasks), and that the most effective learning relationships are horizontal rather than vertical (because people with weak skills benefit most when their partners also have weak skills). The benefits of demonstrably effective financial education do not propagate to peers.
We report the results of two laboratory experiments and a representative survey that investigate how default effects are shaped by information asymmetries and strategic incentives. We document that defaults are more informative when the interests of default setters and decision makers are more closely aligned. Decision makers’ propensity to accept defaults depends, both, on the alignment of interests and the quality of their information. In a second experiment, we demonstrate that decision makers are more likely to follow defaults than to accept (equally informative) advice. Complementary evidence from a representative survey underlines that consumers commonly perceive defaults as being set strategically.
Using over 11,000 unlicensed loans to over 1,000 borrowers in Singapore, we provide basic information about an understudied market: illegal moneylending. Borrowers and lenders interact frequently and rely primarily on relational contracts to enforce their agreements. Borrowers have high discount rates, often have gambling and/or substance abuse problems, and often repay late. While lenders sometimes resort to nonfinancial punishments, the primary cost of late repayment is the compounding of a very high interest rate. Consistent with our view that lenders cannot extract all surplus, a crackdown on illegal lending raised interest rates and lowered the size of loans.
We provide a method to track the active prevalence of COVID-19 in real time, correcting for time-varying sample selection in symptom-based testing data and incomplete tracking of recovered cases and fatalities. Our method only requires publicly available data on positive testing rates in combination with one parameter, which we estimate based on a representative randomized sample of nearly 10,000 individuals tested in Utah in May and June 2020. We validate our method using external studies in Indiana in April 2020 and two counties in Utah in March 2021. In all three locations and times, our estimates of latent prevalence are within the 95 percent confidence intervals of prevalence estimates from randomized testing. Applying our method to all 50 states, we show that true prevalence is 2–3 times higher than publicly reported.
We use data from the Veterans Administration to examine the efficacy of primary care providers (PCPs). Leveraging quasi-random assignment of veterans to PCPs, we measure effectiveness using ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC) and hospitalizations/emergency department (ED) visits for mental health or circulatory conditions. PCPs’ variation along these dimensions predicts future outcomes. For example, a 1 standard deviation improvement in mental health effectiveness reduces patient risk of death by 3.8% and lowers costs by 4.4% over the next three years. More effective PCPs do more with less: their patients have fewer primary care visits, specialist referrals, lab panels, or imaging tests.
This paper demonstrates that a large economic shock such as an oil boom increases intergenerational earnings mobility among directly affected men, mostly through increased bottom-up mobility, but not for women. Preexisting local differences in mobility or shifts in the earnings distributions do not drive these findings. Instead, changes in relative earnings paid to workers with different skills offer the best explanation. Moreover, we document that intergenerational mobility is significantly higher for the indirectly affected third generation and that the oil boom broke the earnings link between first- and third-generation men.
We exploit an unanticipated labor market reform to estimate the effects of procyclical changes in long-term unemployment assistance (UA). In July 2012, Spain raised the minimum age to receive unlimited-duration UA from 52 to 55. Using a difference-in-differences design, we document that shorter benefits caused (1) shorter unemployment duration, especially among younger workers; (2) higher labor force exit and other programs’ take-up, especially among older workers; and (c) lower wages upon reemployment. The reform induced moderate government savings. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interplay with labor market conditions when designing long-term benefit schedules that affect workers close to retirement.
Among men, the Black-White wage gap is as large today as it was in 1950. We test whether this gap is due to asymmetric information using newly collected data on occupational licensing laws that ban workers with criminal records. We find evidence supporting this hypothesis. The licensing premiums for Black men are largest in licensed occupations that restrict felons, particularly in states with banthe-box laws and at small businesses. In these contexts where a worker’s criminal history is difficult to infer, we find that occupational licensing reduces asymmetric information and reduces the racial wage gap.
Colleges can send signals about their quality by adopting new, more alluring names. We study how this affects college choice and labor market performance of college graduates. Administrative data show name-changing colleges enroll higher-aptitude students, with larger effects for alluring-but-misleading name changes and among students with less information. A large resume audit study suggests a small premium for new college names in most jobs, and a significant penalty in lower-status jobs. We characterize student and employer beliefs using web-scraped text, surveys, and other data. Our study shows signals designed to change beliefs can have real, lasting impacts on market outcomes.
We study the impact of reforms that introduced more stringent, biometric ID requirements into India’s largest social protection program, using large-scale randomized and natural experiments. Corruption fell but with substantial costs to legitimate beneficiaries, 1.5–2 million of whom lost access to benefits at some point during the reforms. At the same time, adverse effects appear to have been driven primarily by decisions about the way the transition was managed, illustrating both the risks of rapid reforms, and how the impacts of promising new technologies can be highly sensitive to the protocols governing their use.
In the absence of strong incentives, public service delivery is crucially dependent on bureaucrat selection. Despite wide adoption by governments, it is unclear whether civil service examinations reliably select for job performance. We investigate this question focusing on state judges in Brazil. Exploring monthly data on judicial output and cross-court movement, we estimate that judges account for at least 23% of the observed variation in the number of cases disposed. With novel data on admission examinations, we show that judges with higher grades perform better than lower-ranked peers. Our results suggest competitive examinations can be an effective way to screen candidates.
Satellite-based image classification facilitates low-cost measurement of the Earth’s surface composition. However, misclassified imagery can lead to misleading conclusions about transition processes. We propose a correction for transition rate estimates based on the econometric measurement error literature to extract the signal (truth) from its noisy measurement (satellite-based classifications). No ground-truth data are required in the implementation. Our proposed correction produces consistent estimates of transition rates, confirmed by longitudinal validation data, while transition rates without correction are severely biased. Using our approach, we show how eliminating deforestation in Brazil’s Atlantic forest region through 2040 could save $100 billion in CO2 emissions.
I propose a new method of identifying firms’ subjective beliefs in dynamic models. In settings where actions are continuous and substitutable in contributing to an endogenous state, I show how beliefs about exogenous state transitions can be separately identified from static payoffs. Applying this method to identifying beliefs about future SO2 allowance prices in the U.S. Acid Rain Program, I find that electric utilities underestimate the movements in the allowance price, leading to compliance strategies that respond too slowly to changing market conditions. Biased beliefs increase an average utility’s compliance cost by equivalently 11.2% of its profits.
This article quantifies the impact of the battery electric vehicle subsidy program in China. We build a structural model of dynamic demand and Bertrand Nash supply to study price elasticity and changes in production costs. The model highlights four channels through which the subsidy program impacts the market: temporal elasticity, in response to a current price change; intertemporal elasticity, in response to a future price change; and multiplication effects through peer and learning by doing. Combining these estimates, we simulate outcomes under four subsidy schemes and find a phase-out policy could be the most cost-effective while achieving higher sales promotion compared with alternative policies that provide larger subsidies over more prolonged periods.
Using rapid expansion of the Beijing subway from 2000 to 2018, we analyze its impact on collaborative matches in innovations. We find that an hour reduction in travel time between a pair of locations in Beijing brought 14.85% to 37.69% increase in collaborated patents. Far-apart location pairs were more affected, and the local average causal response is approximately 34.92% to 82.29%. The effect is mainly driven by increased matches among highly productive innovators. The entry of new innovators, relocation of existing innovators, and collaborations among low-productive innovators also contribute to the increase in collaborative matches, especially in the long run.
I study how intra-household frictions and anchoring contribute to the credit card debt puzzle, the co-holding of high-cost debt, and low-yield liquid assets. First, I find couples co-hold 42% more as units than as individuals relative to income. Moreover, in a natural experiment, couples do not cooperate to reduce high-cost debt, suggesting that intra-household frictions contribute to co-holding. Second, I find individuals who regularly make credit card debt payments equal to or near the minimum account for 59% of individual co-holding. The evidence suggests anchoring to the minimum payment contributes to co-holding via these low payments.
We propose ℓ2-relaxation, which is a novel convex optimization problem, to tackle a forecast combination with many forecasts or a minimum variance portfolio with many assets. ℓ2-relaxation minimizes the squared Euclidean norm of the weight vector subject to a set of relaxed linear inequalities to balance the bias and variance. It delivers optimality with approximately equal within-group weights when latent block equicorrelation patterns dominate the high-dimensional sample variance-covariance matrix of the individual forecast errors or the assets. Its wide applicability is highlighted in three real data examples in microeconomics, macroeconomics, and finance.
We investigate the role of performance feedback, in the form of a public leaderboard, in a sequential-sampling contest with costly observations. We show theoretically that for contests with a fixed ending date (i.e., finite horizon), providing public performance feedback may result in fewer expected observations and a lower expected value of the winning observation. We conduct a controlled laboratory experiment to test the theoretical predictions and find that the experimental results largely support the theory. In addition, we investigate how individual characteristics affect competitive sequential-sampling activity.
An administrative rule in North Carolina allowed students who failed an exam to retake it approximately two weeks later, triggering a brief yet intense test preparation period. We develop a structural model that accounts for selection and find that these students score much higher on the retest. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find substantial fade-out of the test score gains after one year but some persistence thereafter. Unlike other interventions that produce similar initial increases in performance, we do not observe benefits to long-term outcomes. Our findings highlight that persistence should be accounted for when comparing educational interventions.
We investigate how managers help firms grow by entering a new export market. We conduct an event study on the decision to export to Angola using data on Portuguese firms and workers. We evaluate the impact of the presence of managers with experience in exporting to the Angolan market on a firm’s entry success in the aftermath of an exogenous shock: the sudden end of the Angolan civil war. We show that the presence of managers doubles the probability of a firm entering the market. We do not find any significant impact on the intensive margin of exports.
Abstract We consider the effect of geography on wages using individual data from 56 Chinese cities. We present a simple new economic geography model that links wages to individual characteristics and market access. The latter is calculated as a transport cost weighted sum of surrounding locations' market capacity. After controlling for individual skills and local factor endowments, we find that a significant fraction of the interindividual differences in returns to labor can be explained by the geography of market access. We further find greater wage sensitivity to market access for highly skilled workers and for workers in private and, particularly, foreign-owned firms.
Abstract We determine how time delays affect trade, using newly collected data on the days it takes to move standard cargo from the factory gate to the ship in 98 countries. We estimate a difference gravity equation and find that each additional day that a product is delayed prior to being shipped reduces trade by more than 1%. Put differently, each day is equivalent to a country distancing itself from its trade partners by about 70 km on average. We also find that delays have a relatively greater impact on exports of time-sensitive goods, such as perishable agricultural products.
Abstract In a natural experiment among former colonies between 1970 and 1999, weak institutions reflected in high settler mortality and French legal origin often increase the likelihood and intensity of local currency and real crises (i.e., those resulting in a drop in real output) amid six global crises. The effects of institutions on crises are often mediated through macroeconomic policies, but they are often not primary channels. Persistent institutions (i.e., those reflected in the legal origins and settler mortality) predict the occurrence and intensity of crises better than time-varying institutions do.
Abstract This study empirically examines the international effects of inflation targeting. Employing a variety of propensity score matching methods, we find strong evidence that inflation targeting has significantly different impacts on exchange rate volatility and international reserves in different country groups. It significantly increases real and nominal exchange rate stability and international reserves in developing countries but lowers them in industrial countries. On average, inflation targeting increases (lowers) reserves roughly by the size of 1.3 (1.8) months of imports values in developing (industrial) countries. The treatment effects on targeting countries' current accounts are found to be insignificant in both country groups.
Abstract Universities are engaged in many activities, primarily research and teaching. Many states have instituted performance measures that focus on evaluating a university's success in teaching. We suggest that multitasking may be important in this context, and we consider research outcomes after adoption. We find striking results that depend on university status. Research activity is higher at flagship institutions after the adoption of performance measures. Most of this increase in activity is with respect to the level of research funding and the number of articles produced. In contrast, research funding and the number of publications is dramatically lower at nonflagship institutions. There is some evidence that citations per publication at nonflagship institutions are higher after the adoption of performance standards. The evidence suggests that universities have become more specialized since the introduction of these programs.
Abstract What determines human beings' political preferences? Using nationally representative longitudinal data, we show that having daughters makes people more likely to vote for left-wing political parties. Having sons leads people to favor right-wing parties. The paper checks that our result is not an artifact of family stopping rules, discusses the predictions from a simple economic model, and tests for possible reverse causality.
Abstract Why does schooling attainment vary widely across countries? Why are differences in schooling attainment highly persistent? I show that cross-country differences in schooling are related to political institutions, such as democracy and local democracy (political decentralization), which are affected by colonial factors. By using the number of native cultures before colonization as an instrument for political decentralization, I show that after controlling for the causal effect of income on schooling, the degree of democratization positively affects the development of primary education, whereas political decentralization has a positive and significant impact on more advanced levels of schooling.
Abstract Measures of inequality and mobility based on self-reported earnings reflect attributes of both the joint distribution of earnings across time and the joint distribution of measurement error and earnings. While classical measurement error would increase measures of inequality and mobility, there is substantial evidence that measurement error in earnings is not classical. In this paper, we present the analytical links between nonclassical measurement error and some summary measures of inequality and mobility. The empirical importance of nonclassical measurement error is explored using the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) matched to tax records. We find that the effects of nonclassical measurement error are large. However, these nonclassical effects are largely offsetting when estimating mobility, as measured by the intertemporal correlation in earnings. As a result, SIPP estimates of the correlation are similar to estimates based on tax records, though SIPP estimates of inequality are smaller than estimates based on tax records.
Abstract Economic theory suggests that intergovernmental grants are equivalent to private income. A large empirical literature, however, contradicts this prediction. A school finance reform in New Hampshire, where local public goods decisions are made by a form of direct democracy, provides an unusually compelling test of the theory. The results, which suggest that approximately ninety cents per grant dollar are spent on tax reduction, provide support for equivalence. The paper's findings have important policy implications for the financing of local public goods in general and for school finance reform in particular.
Abstract In this paper we use two alternative methods to assess the effects of climate change on the quality of wines from the vineyards of the Mosel Valley in Germany. In the first, structural approach we use a physical model of solar radiation to measure the amount of energy collected by a vineyard and then to establish the econometric relation between energy and vineyard quality. Coupling this hedonic function with the physics of heat and energy permits a calculation of the impact of any temperature change on vineyard quality (and prices). In a second approach, we measure the effect of year-to-year changes in the weather on land or crop values in the same region and use the estimated hedonic equation to measure the effect of temperature change on prices. The empirical results of both analyses indicate that the vineyards of the Mosel Valley will increase in value under a scenario of global warming, and perhaps by a considerable amount.
Abstract We employ a unique data set and new time-series techniques to reexamine the existence of trends in relative primary commodity prices. The data set comprises 25 commodities and provides a new historical perspective, spanning the seventeenth to the twenty-first centuries. New tests for the trend function, robust to the order of integration of the series, are applied to the data. Results show that eleven price series present a significant and downward trend over all or some fraction of the sample period. In the very long run, a secular, deteriorating trend is a relevant phenomenon for a significant proportion of primary commodities.
Abstract We use a novel pricing model to imply time series of diffusive volatility and jump intensity from S&P 500 index options. These two measures capture the ex ante risk assessed by investors. Using a simple general equilibrium model, we translate the implied measures of ex ante risk into an ex ante risk premium. The average premium that compensates the investor for the ex ante risks is 70% higher than the premium for realized volatility. The equity premium implied from option prices is shown to significantly predict subsequent stock market returns.
Abstract This paper provides new evidence on the impacts of trade reforms on wages. We first introduce a model of trade that combines a noncompetitive wage-setting mechanism due to unions with a factor abundance hypothesis. The predictions of the model are then econometrically investigated using Argentine data. Instead of achieving identification by comparing industrial wages before and after one episode of trade liberalization, our strategy exploits the recent historical record of policy changes adopted by Argentina: from significant protection in the early 1970s, to the first episode of liberalization during the late 1970s, then back to a slowdown of reforms during the 1980s, and finally to the second episode of liberalization in the 1990s. These swings in trade policy represent broken trends in trade reforms that we can compare with observed trends in wages and wage inequality. We use unusual historical data sets of trends in tariffs, wages, and wage inequality to examine the structure of wages in Argentina and explore how it is affected by tariff reforms. We find that trade liberalization, ceteris paribus, reduces wages; industry tariffs reduce the industry skill premium; and conditional on the structure of tariffs at the industry level, the average tariff in the economy is positively associated with the aggregate skill premium. These findings suggest that the observed trends in wage inequality in Latin America can be reconciled with the Stolper-Samuelson predictions in a model with unions.
Abstract This study estimates the effect of economic conditions on redistributive conflict. We examine land invasions in Brazil using a panel data set with over 50,000 municipality-year observations. Adverse economic shocks, instrumented by rainfall, cause the rural poor to invade and occupy large landholdings. This effect exhibits substantial heterogeneity by land inequality and land tenure systems, but not by other observable variables. In highly unequal municipalities, negative income shocks cause twice as many land invasions as in municipalities with average land inequality. Cross-sectional estimates using fine within-region variation also suggest the importance of land inequality in explaining redistributive conflict.
Abstract This paper shows that inflation in industrialized countries is largely a global phenomenon. First, inflations of 22 OECD countries have a common factor that accounts for nearly 70% of their variance. This comovement is due not only to the trend components of inflation (up from 1960 to 1980 and down thereafter) but also to fluctuations at business cycle frequencies. Second, there is a robust error correction mechanism that brings national inflation rates back to global inflation. A simple model that accounts for this feature consistently beats standard benchmarks in forecasting inflation four to eight quarters ahead across samples and countries.
Abstract We examine peer effects in early education by estimating value-added models with school fixed effects that control extensively for individual, family, peer, and teacher characteristics to account for the endogeneity of peer group formation. We find statistically significant and robust spillover effects from preschool on math and reading outcomes, but statistically insignificant effects on various behavioral and social outcomes. We also find that peer externalizing problems, which most likely capture classroom disturbance, hinder cognitive outcomes. Our estimates imply that ignoring spillover effects significantly understates the social returns to preschool.
Abstract Until the end of 1977, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for rents tended to omit rent increases when units had a change of tenants or were vacant, biasing inflation estimates downward. Beginning in 1978, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) implemented a series of methodological changes that reduced this nonresponse bias, but substantial bias remained until 1985. We set up a model of nonresponse bias, parameterize it, and test it using BLS microdata. From 1940 to 1985, the official BLS CPI for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W) price index for tenant rents rose 3.6% annually; we argue that it should have risen 5.0% annually.
Abstract Understanding the relationship between nominal and real variables, most notably inflation and cyclical output, is one of the fundamental questions of economics. Toward this understanding, we develop a model that integrates sticky prices and sticky information—a dual-stickiness model. We find that both rigidities are present in U.S. data. We also show that the dual-stickiness model's closest competitor is the hybrid New Keynesian model. For both models, current inflation depends in part on last period's inflation. The former model achieves this dependence endogenously through the interaction of the two rigidities rather than through backward-looking behavior. U.S. data support the dual-stickiness model over the hybrid model because lagged expectations terms appear in the former's inflation Euler equation. Finally, we show that it is quantitatively important to distinguish between the two by simulating a dynamic equilibrium model under each of the two inflation equations.
Abstract Consumption growth is predictable, a basic violation of the permanent-income hypothesis. This paper examines three possible explanations: rule-of-thumb behavior, in which households allow consumption to track per period income flows rather than permanent income; habit persistence; and nonseparability in preferences over consumption and leisure. The results illustrate that weak instruments make the results highly sensitive to some arbitrary choices common in the literature. Using a technique that is robust to instrument choice, the analysis shows support for habit persistence and rule-of-thumb behavior and little support for nonseparability between consumption and leisure.
Abstract We study strategic choice of effort in best-of-three contests between equally skilled players. Economic theory predicts such contests are more likely to end in two rounds than in three. If, however, a contest reaches a third round, each player is equally likely to win. We test these predictions with data from professional tennis matches, using betting odds to identify equally skilled opponents. The empirical results support the theoretical predictions, suggesting players strategically adjust efforts during a best-of-three contest.
Abstract This paper compares economic outcomes across areas in India that were under direct British colonial rule with areas that were under indirect colonial rule. Controlling for selective annexation using a specific policy rule, I find that areas that experienced direct rule have significantly lower levels of access to schools, health centers, and roads in the postcolonial period. I find evidence that the quality of governance in the colonial period has a significant and persistent effect on postcolonial outcomes.
Abstract Does economic inequality affect redistributive policy? This paper turns to U.S. county data on land inequality over the period 1890 to 1930 to help address this fundamental question in political economy. Redistributive policy was primarily decided at the local level during this period, making county-level data particularly informative. Examining within-state variation also reduces the potential impact of latent institutional and political variables. The paper also uses a variety of identification strategies, including historic variables as well as county weather and crop characteristics, as instruments for land inequality. The evidence consistently suggests that greater inequality is significantly associated with less redistribution. This negative relationship is especially large in heavily rural counties, where concentrated landownership implied that landed elites also controlled the majority of economic production.
Abstract What is the role of transport improvements in globalization? We argue that the nineteenth century is the ideal testing ground: maritime freight rates fell on average by 50% while global trade increased 400% from 1870 to 1913. We estimate the first indices of bilateral freight rates and directly incorporate these into a standard gravity model. We also take the endogeneity of bilateral trade and freight rates seriously and propose an instrumental variables approach. The results are striking: we find no evidence that the maritime transport revolution was the primary driver of the late-nineteenth-century global trade boom.
Abstract Does international financial integration boost economic growth? The empirical literature has not yet established a robust link between openness to the international capital market and economic growth. In this paper, we turn to the economic history of the first era of financial globalization (1880–1914) for new insights. Using identical empirical models and techniques as contemporary studies, we find a significant growth effect in the historical period. A key difference between now and then is that opening up to the international market led to net capital movements and higher investment in the historical period, but it no longer does so today.
Abstract The magnitude and the direction of net international capital flows do not fit neoclassical models. The fifty U.S. states comprise an integrated capital market with very low barriers to capital flows, which makes them an ideal testing ground for neoclassical models. We develop a simple frictionless open economy model with perfectly diversified ownership of capital and find that capital flows among the states are consistent with the model. Therefore, the small size and “wrong” direction of net international capital flows are likely due to frictions associated with national borders, not to inherent flaws in the neoclassical model.
Abstract We document a positive correlation between stock market capitalization and price levels (wages) within the group of countries with poorly developed stock markets and a negative correlation between these two variables within the group of countries with more developed stock markets. This paper argues that there is a causal relationship behind these correlations. Stock markets initially stimulate growth, pushing the demand for nontradables and increasing prices and wages. Stock markets also promote a shift toward more capital-intensive technologies in the tradable sector, increasing the migration of workers to services and eventually putting downward pressure on wages and prices.
Abstract In this paper, we examine net emigration from Mexico over the period 1960 to 2000. The data are consistent with labor supply shocks having made a substantial contribution to Mexican emigration, accounting for two-fifths of Mexican labor flows to the United States over the last two decades of the twentieth century. Net emigration rates by Mexican state birth year cohort display a strong positive correlation with the initial size of the Mexican cohort relative to the corresponding U.S. cohort. In states with long histories of emigration, the effects of cohort size on emigration are relatively strong, consistent with the existence of preexisting networks.
Abstract We ask how export demand shocks associated with the Asian financial crisis affected Chinese exporters. We construct firm-specific exchange rate shocks based on the precrisis destinations of firms' exports. Because the shocks were unanticipated and large, they are a plausible instrument for identifying the impact of exporting on firm productivity and other outcomes. We find that firms whose export destinations experience greater currency depreciation have slower export growth and that export growth leads to increases in firm productivity and other firm performance measures. Consistent with “learning-by-exporting,” the productivity impact of export growth is greater when firms export to more developed countries.
Abstract We analyze the impact of corruption on bilateral trade, highlighting its dual role in terms of extortion and evasion. Corruption taxes trade, when corrupt customs officials in the importing country extort bribes from exporters (extortion effect); however, with high tariffs, corruption may be trade enhancing when corrupt officials allow exporters to evade tariff barriers (evasion effect). We derive and estimate a corruption-augmented gravity model, where the effect of corruption on trade flows is ambiguous and contingent on tariffs. Empirically, corruption taxes trade in the majority of cases, but in high-tariff environments (covering 5% to 14% of the observations) their marginal effect is trade enhancing.
Abstract I examine how foreign presence affects the growth and survival of domestic firms. Separating a negative crowding out and positive technology spillovers, I analyze whether the crowding out effect is dynamic, that is, domestic firms cut production over time as foreign firms grow, or a static effect realized on foreign entry into the industry. Using 1994–2001 firm-level Czech data, I find evidence of both technology spillovers and crowding out. However, crowding out is only short term; after initial entry shakeout, growing foreign sales increase domestic firm growth and survival, indicating domestic demand creation effect. However, I find no such benefits from domestic competition.
Abstract Recent theoretical models underscore the potential asymmetric response of various behaviors, ranging from criminal activity to smoking. In this paper, we use state-level panel and individual-level panel data to document the previously unnoticed asymmetric response of crime to changes in the unemployment rate. The results have policy implications, and they have potentially widespread ramifications because similar asymmetries may also be prevalent in other domains, ranging from the relationship between income and health to peer quality and student outcomes.
Abstract We use data on vote outcomes from a universal voucher initiative to examine whether white households with children in public schools will use vouchers to leave predominantly nonwhite schools, thereby contributing to more racially and ethnically segregated schools. We find that white households are more likely to support vouchers when their children attend schools with larger concentrations of nonwhite schoolchildren, an effect that is absent for nonwhite households and households without children. This result may be driven less by race or ethnicity and more by other characteristics, such as student performance, that are correlated with race or ethnicity.
Abstract We use policy discontinuities at state borders to identify the effects of minimum wages on earnings and employment in restaurants and other low-wage sectors. Our approach generalizes the case study method by considering all local differences in minimum wage policies between 1990 and 2006. We compare all contiguous county pairs in the United States that straddle a state border and find no adverse employment effects. We show that traditional approaches that do not account for local economic conditions tend to produce spurious negative effects due to spatial heterogeneities in employment trends that are unrelated to minimum wage policies. Our findings are robust to allowing for long-term effects of minimum wage changes.
Abstract If households face uninsurable idiosyncratic earnings risk, theory predicts that redistributive tax and transfer systems have both an insurance and a distortionary effect. Exploiting the substantial variation of tax and transfer systems across U.S. states and over time, we investigate the necessary traces of these two effects in the data: that state-level measures of redistributive taxation should correlate negatively with the standard deviation and the mean of the within-state consumption distribution. We find that the first correlation is robust, supporting strongly the presence of an insurance effect. The distortionary effect can also be detected in the data, but it is less precisely estimated.
Abstract This paper provides evidence of the presence and relevance of the credit chain propagation and amplification mechanism described by Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) by looking at its implications for the correlation of industries. In particular, it tests the hypothesis that an increase in the use of trade credit, along the input-output chain linking two industries, results in an increase in their output correlation using detailed data on the correlations and input-output relations of 378 manufacturing industry pairs across 43 countries with different degrees of use of trade credit. The results provide strong support for this hypothesis and indicate that the mechanism is quantitatively relevant.
Abstract Recent evidence from Bound, Brown, and Mathiowetz (2001) and Black, Sanders, and Taylor (2003) suggests that reporting errors in survey data routinely violate all of the classical measurement error assumptions. The econometrics literature has not considered the consequences of fully arbitrary measurement error for identification of regression coefficients. This paper highlights the severity of the identification problem given the presence of even infrequent arbitrary errors in a binary regressor. In the empirical component, health insurance misclassification rates of less than 1.3% generate double-digit percentage point ranges of uncertainty about the variable's true marginal effect on the use of health services.
Abstract Removal of short-run dynamics from a stationary time series to isolate the medium- to long-run component can be obtained by a bandpass filter. However, bandpass filters are infinite moving averages and can therefore deteriorate at the end of the sample. This is a well-known result in the literature isolating the business cycle in integrated series. We show that the same problem arises with our application to stationary time series. In this paper, we develop a method to obtain smoothing of a stationary time series by using only contemporaneous values of a large data set, so that no end-of-sample deterioration occurs. Our method is applied to the construction of New Eurocoin, an indicator of economic activity for the euro area, which is an estimate, in real time, of the medium- to long-run component of GDP growth. As our data set is monthly and most of the series are updated with a short delay, we are able to produce a monthly real-time indicator. As an estimate of the medium- to long-run GDP growth, Eurocoin performs better than the bandpass filter at the end of the sample in terms of both fitting and turning-point signaling.
Abstract Previous research has interpreted the correlation between per capita income and civil war as evidence that poverty is a main determinant of conflict. In this paper, we find that the relationship between poverty and civil war is spurious and is accounted for by historical phenomena that jointly determine income evolution and conflict. In particular, the statistical association between poverty and civil wars disappears once we include country fixed effects. Also, using cross‐section data for 1960 to 2000, we find that once historical variables like European settler mortality rates and the population density in 1500 are included in civil war regressions, poverty does not have an effect on civil wars. These results are confirmed using longer time series from 1825 to 2000.
Abstract This paper provides evidence on the patterns of multiproduct firm production in a large developing country, India, during a period that spans market reforms. In the cross-section, multiproduct firms in India look remarkably similar to their U.S. counterparts. The time-series patterns, however, exhibit important differences. In contrast to evidence from the United States, product churning, particularly product rationalization, is far less common in India. We find no link between product rationalization and output tariff declines following India's 1991 trade liberalization. The lack of “creative destruction” is consistent with the role of industrial regulation in preventing an efficient allocation of resources.
Abstract Over the past several decades, the HIV/AIDS epidemic has dramatically altered patterns of morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, with potential consequences for human capital investment and economic growth. Using data from Demographic and Health Surveys for fifteen countries in sub-Saharan Africa, I estimate the relationship between regional HIV prevalence and the change in individual human capital investment over time. Consistent with a simple model of human capital investment incorporating mortality risk, I find that areas with higher levels of HIV experienced relatively larger declines in schooling.
Abstract We use the National Establishment Time Series (NETS) to revisit the debate about the role of small businesses in job creation (Birch, 1987; Davis, Haltiwanger, & Schuh, 1996a). Using the NETS data, we examine evidence for the overall economy, as well as for different sectors. The results indicate that small firms and small establishments create more jobs, on net, although the difference is much smaller than Birch's methods suggest. Moreover, in the recent period we study, a negative relationship between establishment size and net job creation holds for both the manufacturing and services sectors.
Abstract In the United States, black workers earn less than their white counterparts and have higher rates of unemployment. Empirical work indicates that most of this wage gap is accounted for by differences in cognitive skills that emerge at an early age. In this paper, we demonstrate that the same is not true for black-white disparity in unemployment. A large unexplained unemployment differential motivates the paper's second contribution—a potential theoretical explanation. This explanation is built around a model that embeds statistical discrimination into the subjective worker evaluation process that lies at the root of the efficiency-wage theory of equilibrium unemployment.
Abstract Using 1980–2000 Census data to study the impact of source country characteristics on married adult immigrants' labor supply assimilation profiles, we find that immigrant women from countries with high female labor supply persistently work more than those from low-female-supply countries. While both groups of women work less than comparable natives on arrival, women from high-female-participation countries eventually close the gap with natives entirely, and women from low-female-labor supply countries eliminate most of it. Men's labor supply is unaffected by source country female participation, suggesting that the findings on women reflect notions of gender roles.
Abstract Since recent immigrants tend to earn less than natives, their  relative earnings have been adversely affected by an increase in the return to labor market skills over the past three decades. Using longitudinal Social Security records matched to cross-sections of the SIPP and CPS, I estimate the return to skills rose by 41% between 1980 and 1997. This reduced the relative earnings of immigrants who arrived in the 1980s and early 1990s by 10 to 15 percentage points. Examining solely the earnings of recent immigrants may lead to an overly pessimistic picture of their actual labor market skills.
Abstract This paper examines the extent to which Mexican emigrants to the United States are negatively selected. Previous studies have been limited by the lack of nationally representative longitudinal data. This one uses a newly available household survey, that identifies emigrants before they leave. On average, U.S.-bound Mexican emigrants from 2000 to 2004 earn lower wages and have less (more for females) schooling than nonmigrant Mexicans, evidence of negative selection. This argues against Chiquiar and Hanson's (2005) findings. The discrepancy is primarily due to an undercount of unskilled migrants in U.S. sources and secondarily to the omission of unobservables in their methodology.
Abstract Analysis of daily reported incidents of major crimes in twelve U.S. cities reveals an increase in crime over the course of monthly welfare payment cycles. This increase reflects an increase in crimes that are likely to have a direct financial motivation as opposed to other kinds of crime. Temporal patterns in crime are observed in jurisdictions in which disbursements are focused at the beginning of monthly welfare payment cycles and not in jurisdictions in which disbursements are relatively more staggered. These findings indicate that welfare beneficiaries consume welfare-related income quickly and then attempt to supplement it with criminal income.
Abstract In difference-in-differences applications, identification of the key parameter often arises from changes in policy by a small number of groups. In contrast, typical inference assumes that the number of groups changing policy is large. We present an alternative inference approach for a small (finite) number of policy changers, using information from a large sample of nonchanging groups. Treatment effect point estimators are not consistent, but we can consistently estimate their asymptotic distribution under any point null hypothesis about the treatment. Thus, treatment point estimators can be used as test statistics, and confidence intervals can be constructed using test statistic inversion.
Abstract We build a new concordance between the NBER Patent Data and U.S. Census microdata and use it to examine what happens when firms patent. We find strong evidence that increases in patent stock are associated with increases in firm size, scope, and skill and capital intensity. We find somewhat weaker evidence that changes in patenting are positively correlated with changes in total factor productivity. We also analyze first-time patentees and find similar effects following initial patent application. Together, these results suggest that patenting is indeed associated with real changes within firms, in particular with growth through increases in scope.
Abstract The main reason governments grant patent protection is to spur innovation. However, the size of the R&D stimulus from patent protection is far from clear because it depends on how effective patents are as a mechanism for appropriating returns. Drawing on real options investment theory, this paper highlights one mechanism through which patents may improve appropriability and stimulate R&D investment: patents reduce the effect of market uncertainty on the firm’s investment decision. We find that firm-level R&D investment falls in response to higher levels of uncertainty, but that patent protection partially mitigates the influence of uncertainty.
Abstract There has been fierce debate over the imposition of stronger intellectual property rights laws for pharmaceutical products in developing countries. This paper uses data from the Indian pharmaceutical industry to develop a structural model of demand, supply and entry. The estimation yields demand and supply parameters that indicate significant heterogeneity among firms both within and across different therapeutic segments. The estimated parameters are used to simulate patent enforcement and price deregulation for 43 drugs, which predicts large losses for consumers and relatively small gains in profits for the global patent holders.
Abstract This study aims to empirically investigate the determinants of service industry productivity, such as economies of scale and economies of density. By using establishment-level data related to personal service industries in Japan, the study estimates the production functions for both value-added and physical output measures. In almost all the service industries examined, significant economies of scale and economies of density are observed, wherein productivity increases by 7% to 15% when the municipality population density doubles. These findings are confirmed by an estimation in which the measures of physical output are considered instead of value added.
Abstract Are price and consumption independent in flat-rate price service contexts? A field experiment at an all-you-can-eat pizza restaurant shows that a 50% discount on the price of the meal led customers to consume 27.9% less pizza (2.95 versus 4.09 pieces). A second analysis indicated that individual taste ratings of this pizza tended to be inversely related to how much is consumed. One possible interpretation of these two findings is that individuals in a flat-rate (or fixed-price) context may consume the amount that enables them to get their money's worth rather than consuming until their marginal utility of consumption is 0.
Abstract Road safety policies often use incentive mechanisms based on traffic violations to promote safe driving—for example, fines, experience rating, and point-record driver's licenses. We analyze the effectiveness of these mechanisms in promoting safe driving. We derive their theoretical properties with respect to contract time and accumulated demerit points. These properties are tested empirically with data from the Quebec public insurance plan. We find evidence of moral hazard, which means that drivers who accumulate demerit points become more careful because they are at risk of losing their license. An insurance rating scheme introduced in 1992 reduced the frequency of traffic violations by 15%. We use this result to derive monetary equivalents for traffic violations and license  suspensions.
Abstract Defined contribution pensions in many postsecondary institutions are funded by a combination of an employer premium and a mandatory employee premium. Individuals can also contribute to a supplemental savings account. Holding constant total compensation, standard reasoning suggests that supplemental savings should depend negatively on the sum of the employer and employee pension contributions. Contrarily, we find that the supplementary savings of professors are significantly more sensitive to employee contributions than to employer contributions. This asymmetry is consistent with different marginal propensities to save out of the salary and pension components of compensation. Nevertheless, impacts on lifetime utility are relatively modest.
Abstract This paper examines the investment decisions of older individual investors. We find that older and experienced investors are more likely to follow rules of thumb that reflect greater investment knowledge. However, older investors are less effective in applying their investment knowledge and exhibit worse investment skill, especially if they are less educated, earn lower income, and belong to minority racial/ethnic groups. Overall, the adverse effects of aging dominate the positive effects of experience. These results indicate that older investors' portfolio decisions reflect greater knowledge about investing, but investment skill deteriorates with age due to the adverse effects of cognitive aging.
Abstract This paper investigates how dividend taxes influence portfolio choices, using the response to the distinctive treatment of a subset of foreign dividends in the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act (JGTRRA) of 2003. An open-economy after-tax capital asset pricing model is used to derive the hypothesis that JGTRRA should lead to a portfolio reallocation by U.S. investors toward equities in tax-favored countries. A difference-in-difference analysis that compares U.S. equity holdings in affected and unaffected countries finds a substantial portfolio reallocation toward the former. This effect cannot be explained by several potential alternative hypotheses, including differential changes to the preferences of American investors, differential changes in investment opportunities, differential time trends in investment, changed tax evasion behavior, or changes in stock prices associated (or contemporaneous) with JGTRRA.
Abstract Does hiring workers with experience from multinationals (MNEs) increase productivity in non-MNEs? Tracing worker flows between plants in Norwegian manufacturing during the 1990s, I find a positive correlation between the share of workers with MNE experience in non-MNEs and the productivity of these plants. Workers with MNE experience contribute 20% more to the productivity of their plant than workers without such experience, even after controlling for differences in unobservable worker characteristics. The private return to mobility is smaller than the productivity effect at the plant level, which suggests that labor mobility from MNEs to non-MNEs represents a true knowledge externality.
Abstract This paper offers the first empirical analysis of the impact of adaptation on the boundary of multinational firms. To do so, we develop a ranking of sectors in terms of “routineness” by merging two sets of data: ratings of occupations by their intensities in solving problems from the U.S. Department of Labor's Occupational Information Network and U.S. employment shares of occupations by sectors from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment Statistics. Using U.S. Census trade data, we demonstrate that the share of intrafirm trade tends to be higher in less routine sectors.
Abstract We use two large samples of firms to assess the effects of business environment constraints, competition, export orientation, and ownership on firm performance. We deal with omitted variables, errors in variables, and endogeneity, and find that few business constraints affect performance. Replicating the analysis with Doing Business and Heritage Foundation indicators of the business environment yields similar results. In fact, country fixed effects, reflecting time-invariant differences in the business environment as well as other factors such as health care and education, matter more for firm performance than differences in the business environment across firms within countries.
Abstract Using a panel of U.S. metropolitan areas, we find that increases in the supply of venture capital positively affect firm starts, employment, and aggregate income. Our results remain robust to a variety of specifications, including ones that address endogeneity. The estimated magnitudes imply that venture capital stimulates the creation of more firms than it funds, which appears consistent with two mechanisms: First, would-be entrepreneurs anticipating financing needs more likely start firms when the supply of capital expands. Second, funded companies may transfer know-how to their employees, thereby enabling spin-offs, and may encourage others to become entrepreneurs through demonstration effects.
Abstract We estimate the impact of market development and democratization on subjective political preferences. We rely on the specific situation of frontier zones and the considerable regional variations in culture and economic development in the countries of the former socialist bloc for identification. Using a survey conducted in 2006, we find a positive and significant effect of democracy on support for a market economy, but no effect of market liberalization on support for democracy. Hence, in contrast with the conventional wisdom concerning the sequencing of political and economic reforms, democratization may become a necessary condition to obtain public support for further economic liberalization.
Abstract This paper estimates the economic effects of a recent reform that simplified business entry regulation in Mexico. The reform was introduced in different municipalities at different points in time. Using microlevel data, I find that the reform increased the number of registered businesses by 5%. This increase was due to former wage earners' opening businesses. Former unregistered business owners were not more likely to register their business after the reform. The reform also increased wage employment by 2.2%. Finally, the results imply that the competition from new entrants decreased the income of incumbent businesses by 3%.
Abstract This paper evaluates the health impacts of a signature initiative of the War on Poverty: the introduction of the modern Food Stamp Program (FSP). Using variation in the month FSP began operating in each U.S. county, we find that pregnancies exposed to FSP three months prior to birth yielded deliveries with increased birth weight, with the largest gains at the lowest birth weights. We also find small but statistically insignificant improvements in neonatal mortality. We conclude that the sizable increase in income from FSP improved birth outcomes for both whites and African Americans, with larger impacts for African American mothers.
Abstract School desegregation might have induced unintended behavioral responses of white families as well as state and local governments. This paper examines these responses and is the first to study the effects of desegregation on the finances of school districts. Desegregation induced white flight from blacker to whiter public school districts and to private schools, but the local property tax base and local revenue were not adversely affected. The state legislature directed significant new funding to districts where whites were particularly affected by desegregation. Desegregation therefore appears to have achieved its intended goal of improving resources available in schools that blacks attended.
Abstract I use a long panel with broad grade coverage to establish whether charter schools affect cognitive and noncognitive skill formation. Schools that begin as charters generate large improvements in discipline and attendance but not test scores, with the exception of math in middle schools. This suggests improvements in noncognitive but not cognitive skills, although these improvements do not persist if students return to regular public schools. Charters that convert from regular public schools have little impact on either skill type. These results are robust to potential biases from selection off of precharter trends, attrition, and persistence.
Abstract Providing remedial (also known as developmental) education is the primary way colleges cope with students who do not have the academic preparation needed to succeed in college-level courses. Remediation is widespread, with nearly one-third of entering freshmen taking remedial courses at an annual cost of at least $1 billion. Despite its prevalence, there is uncertainty surrounding its short- and longer-run effects. This paper presents new evidence on this question using longitudinal administrative data from Texas and a regression discontinuity research design. We find little indication that remediation improves academic or labor market outcomes.
Abstract Using Norwegian data, we examine effects of school starting age (SSA). Unlike much recent literature, we can separate SSA from test age effects using scores from IQ tests taken outside school at about age 18. We find a small, negative effect of starting school older but much larger positive effects of age at test. Also, starting older leads to lower earnings until about age 30. We find little impact of SSA on educational attainment, but boys who start older are less likely to have poor mental health at age 18. Additionally, starting school older has a negative effect on the probability of teenage pregnancy.
Abstract Using multiple data sets from different time periods, we document declines in academic time investment by full-time college students in the United States between 1961 and 2003. Full-time students allocated 40 hours per week toward class and studying in 1961, whereas by 2003, they were investing about 27 hours per week. Declines were extremely broad based and are not easily accounted for by framing effects, work or major choices, or compositional changes in students or schools. We conclude that there have been substantial changes over time in the quantity or manner of human capital production on college campuses.
Abstract We compare the effects of selective and nonselective secondary education on children's test scores, using British data from the National Child Development Study. Test scores are modeled as the output of an additive production function. An important input is the child's unobserved initial endowment, which may be correlated with the education system attended. In this model, we generalize the difference-in-differences approach and identify the entire counterfactual distribution of potential outcomes. Our results suggest that the better performance of selective schools relative to nonselective ones is essentially due to differences in pupils' composition.
Abstract We study the impact of misreported treatment status on the estimation of causal treatment effects, focusing on applications where no additional information or repeated measurements are available. We first characterize the bias introduced by misclassification on the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) under a conditional independence assumption, in both a binary and a multiple-treatment setting. We find that the bias of matching-type estimators computed from misclassified data cannot in general be signed. We subsequently provide easily implementable methods to bound the ATT of interest semiparametrically, in particular allowing for very general forms of impact heterogeneity and of the no-treatment outcome equations, as well as for some dependence of the misreporting probabilities on individual characteristics. The empirical problem that motivates our paper is the estimation of the wage returns to a number of educational qualifications in the United Kingdom, allowing for misreporting in attainment. We investigate the sensitivity of the raw estimates to the presence of misclassification and explore the identification power of plausible restrictions on the nature and extent of misclassification. We show that the resulting bounds are sometimes wide but generally point to reasonable ranges of positive values for average returns to schooling among the schooled. For the range of educational qualifications considered, we further show that the claim sometimes made that measurement error bias roughly cancels out selection bias is not supported. More generally, our results show that under relatively mild restrictions, we can obtain strong conclusions regarding our questions of interest.
Abstract Most academic and development policy discussions about microentrepreneurs focus on credit constraints and assume that subject to those constraints, the entrepreneurs manage their business optimally. Yet the self-employed poor rarely have any formal training in business skills. A growing number of microfinance organizations are attempting to build the human capital of microentrepreneurs in order to improve the livelihood of their clients and help further their mission of poverty alleviation. Using a randomized control trial, we measure the marginal impact of adding business training to a Peruvian group lending program for female microentrepreneurs. Treatment groups received thirty- to sixty-minute entrepreneurship training sessions during their normal weekly or monthly banking meeting over a period of one to two years. Control groups remained as they were before, meeting at the same frequency but solely for making loan and savings payments. We find little or no evidence of changes in key outcomes such as business revenue, profits, or employment. We nevertheless observed business knowledge improvements and increased client retention rates for the microfinance institution.
Abstract Where does adaptation to innovation take place? I present evidence on the role of agglomeration economies in the application of new knowledge to production. All else equal, workers are more likely to be observed in new work in locations initially dense in college graduates and industry variety. This pattern is consistent with economies from the geographic concentration of factors and markets related to technological adaptation. A main contribution is a new measure, based on revisions to occupation classifications, that characterizes cross-sectional differences across cities in technological adaptation. Worker-level results also provide new evidence on the skill bias of recent innovations.
Abstract I estimate the impact of hurricane strikes on local economic growth rates. To this end, I assemble a panel data set of U.S. coastal counties' growth rates and construct a novel hurricane destruction index that is based on a monetary loss equation, local wind speed estimates derived from a physical wind field model, and local exposure characteristics. The econometric results suggest that a county's annual economic growth rate falls on average by 0.45 percentage points, 28% of it due to richer individuals moving away from affected counties. I also find that the impact of hurricanes is netted out in annual terms at the state level and does not affect national economic growth rates at all.
Abstract The paper explores the evolution of export diversification patterns along the economic development path. Using a large database with 156 countries over 19 years at the HS6 level of disaggregation (4,991 product lines), we look for action at the intensive and extensive margins. We find a hump-shaped pattern of export diversification similar to what Imbs and Wacziarg (2003) found for production. Diversification and subsequent reconcentration take place mostly along the extensive margin. This hump-shaped pattern is consistent with the conjecture that countries travel across diversification cones, as discussed in Schott (2003, 2004) and Xiang (2007).
Abstract Many papers have explored the relationship between average tariff rates and economic growth when theory suggests that the structure of protection is what should matter. We therefore explore the relationship between economic growth and agricultural tariffs, industrial tariffs, and revenue tariffs for a sample of relatively well-developed countries between 1875 and 1913. Industrial tariffs were positively correlated with growth, and agricultural tariffs were generally negatively correlated with growth, although the results are not robust. Revenue tariffs were not related to growth at all.
Abstract In this paper we provide new evidence on the impact on the U.S. CPI of the appearance and growth of new types of product outlets. Our CPI food microdata permit a more detailed categorization of outlet types than in previous studies, and we can adjust for numerous differences in item characteristics. We also examine the effects of changes in outlet mix not only across outlet categories but also within those categories. In our sample, we find that the upward impact on price from increased item quality has offset most, but not all, of the downward impact of lower-priced outlets.
Abstract It is well known that augmenting a standard linear regression model with variables that are correlated with the error term but uncorrelated with the original regressors will increase the asymptotic efficiency of the original coefficients. We argue that in the context of predicting excess returns, valid augmenting variables exist and are likely to yield substantial gains in estimation efficiency and, hence, predictive accuracy. The proposed augmenting variables are ex post measures of an unforecastable component of excess returns: ex post errors from macroeconomic survey forecasts, the surprise components of asset price movements around macroeconomic news announcements, or even the weather. These “surprises” cannot be used directly in forecasting—they are not observed at the time that the forecast is made—but can nonetheless improve forecasting accuracy by reducing parameter estimation uncertainty. We derive formal results about the benefits and limits of this approach and apply it to standard examples of forecasting excess bond and equity returns. We find substantial improvements in out-of-sample forecast accuracy for standard excess bond return regressions; gains for forecasting excess stock returns are much smaller.
Abstract We propose a formal test of the hypothesis that energy prices are predetermined with respect to U.S. macroeconomic aggregates. The test is based on regressing changes in daily energy prices on daily news from U.S. macroeconomic data releases. Using a wide range of macroeconomic news, we find no compelling evidence of feedback at daily or monthly horizons, contradicting the view that energy prices respond instantaneously to macroeconomic news and consistent with the commonly used identifying assumption that there is no feedback from U.S. macroeconomic aggregates to monthly innovations in energy prices.
Abstract Retail gasoline prices are known to respond fairly slowly to wholesale price changes. This does not appear to be true for markets with Edgeworth price cycles. Recently many retail gasoline markets in the midwestern United States and other countries have been shown to exhibit price cycles in which competition generates rapid cyclical retail price movements. We show that cost changes in cycling markets are passed on two to three times faster than in markets without cycles. We argue that the constant price movement inherent within the Edgeworth cycle eliminates price frictions and allows firms to pass on cost fluctuations more easily.
Abstract It is shown that in a nonparametric nonseparable triangular system, the conditional moment restriction (CMR) does not identify the average structural function (ASF). The CMR identifies the ASF only if the model is structurally separable in observable covariates and unobservable random errors. This excludes, for instance, random coefficient models in which the CMR in general does not identify the average response. An implication of our results is that empirical researchers should use methods other than CMR if they want to estimate the average response in models that are not additively separable.
Abstract U.S. federal law calls for an end to overfishing, but measuring overfishing requires knowledge of bioeconomic parameters. Using microlevel economic data from the commercial fishery, this paper proposes a two-stage approach to estimate these parameters for a generalized fishery model. In the first stage, a fishery production function is consistently estimated by a within-period estimator treating the latent stock as a fixed effect. The estimated stock is then substituted into an equation of fish stock dynamics to estimate all other biological parameters. The bootstrap approach is used to correct the standard errors in the two-stage model. This method is applied to the reef-fish fishery in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The traditional method, which uses catch-per-unit-effort as a stock proxy, significantly overstates the optimal harvest level.
Abstract This paper evaluates the presence of racial disparities in the issuance of consumer credit. Using a database of credit histories, I link location-based information on race with individual credit files. After controlling for place-specific factors such as housing vacancy rates and general population demographics, I find qualitatively large differences in the amount of credit offered to similarly qualified applicants living in black versus white areas. High data quality allows distinguishing between issuer-provision (supply) and utilization of credit (demand). Additional estimates using information on payday lending provide support for idea that issuers condition lending on location.
Abstract Using a proprietary data set of credit bureau records, Cohen-Cole (2011) finds evidence that lenders are using the racial composition of a borrower's neighborhood to set credit limits on revolving accounts. Using the same credit bureau data, I revisit this work and reach two main findings. First, an undocumented decision in constructing the variables appears to have introduced a distortion that is highly correlated with neighborhood racial composition and appears to increase the size of the reported disparity. Second, when neighborhood income is controlled for, the results presented as evidence of redlining disappear.
Abstract We develop semiparametric tests for conditional independence in time series models of causal effects. Our approach is motivated by empirical studies of monetary policy effects and is semiparametric in the sense that we model the process determining the distribution of treatment—the policy propensity score—but leave the model for outcomes unspecified. A conceptual innovation is that we adapt the cross-sectional potential outcomes framework to a time series setting. We also develop root-T consistent distribution-free inference methods for full conditional independence testing, appropriate for dependent data and allowing for first-step estimation of the (multinomial) propensity score.
Abstract We identify employees at seven companies whose 401(k) investment choices are dominated because they are contributing less than the employer matching contribution threshold despite being vested in their match and being able to make penalty-free 401(k) withdrawals for any reason because they are older than 59½. At the average firm, 36% of match-eligible employees over age 59½ forgo arbitrage profits that average 1.6% of their annual pay, or $507. A survey educating employees about the free lunch they are forgoing raised contribution rates by a statistically insignificant 0.67% of income among those completing the survey.
Abstract We use panel data from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study, 1992–2002, to estimate the effect of self-assessed health limitations on the active labor market participation of older men. Self-assessments of health are likely to be endogenous to labor supply due to justification bias and individual-specific heterogeneity in subjective evaluations. We address both concerns. We propose a semiparametric binary choice procedure that incorporates nonadditive correlated individual-specific effects. Our estimation strategy identifies and estimates the average partial effects of health and functioning on labor market participation. The results indicate that poor health plays a major role in labor market exit decisions.
Abstract We examine the effect of more than 3,400 gun shows using data from Gun and Knife Show Calendar and vital statistics data from California and Texas. Considering the one month following each show and a surrounding area ranging from 80 to 2,000 square miles, we find no evidence that gun shows increase either gun homicides or suicides. The similarity of our estimates for California and Texas suggests that the much tighter California gun show regulations do not substantially reduce the number of firearms-related deaths in that state. Using incident-level crime data for Houston, Texas, we also find no evidence of an effect on other crime categories.
Abstract A central prediction of a large class of theoretical models is that industry location is not uniquely determined by fundamentals. Despite the theoretical prominence of this idea, there is little systematic evidence in support of its empirical relevance. This paper exploits the division of Germany after World War II and the reunification of East and West Germany as an exogenous shock to industry location. Focusing on a particular economic activity, an air hub, we develop a body of evidence that the relocation of Germany's air hub from Berlin to Frankfurt in response to division is a shift between multiple steady states.
Abstract We use newly compiled top income data and structural breaks techniques to estimate common trends and breaks in inequality across countries over the twentieth century. Our results both confirm earlier findings and offer new insights. In particular, the division into an Anglo-Saxon and a Continental European experience is not as clear-cut as previously suggested. Some Continental European countries seem to have, experienced increases in top income shares, just as Anglo-Saxon countries have, but typically with a lag. Most notably, Nordic countries display a marked Anglo-Saxon pattern, with sharply increased top income shares, especially when including realized capital gains. Our results help inform theories about the causes of the recent rise in inequality.
Abstract Health and income are strongly correlated both within and across countries, yet the extent to which improvements in income have a causal effect on health status remains controversial. We investigate whether short-term fluctuations in aggregate income affect infant mortality using an unusually large data set of 1.7 million births in 59 developing countries. We show a large, negative association between per capita GDP and infant mortality. Female infant mortality is more sensitive than male infant mortality to negative economic shocks, suggesting that policies that protect the health status of female infants may be especially important during economic downturns.
Abstract This paper considers the decision of Gentiles whether to rescue Jews during the Holocaust, a situation of altruistic behavior under life-or-death stakes. I examine the role to which economic factors may have influenced the decision to be a rescuer. Using cross-country data and detailed individual-level data on rescuers and nonrescuers, I find that richer countries had many more rescuers than poorer ones, and within countries, richer people were more likely to be rescuers than poorer people. The individual-level effect of income on being a rescuer remains significant after controlling for ease-of-rescue variables, such as the number of rooms in one's home, suggesting that the correlation of income and rescue is not solely driven by richer people having more resources for rescue. Given that richer people might be thought to have more to lose by rescuing, the evidence is consistent with the view that altruism increases with income.
Abstract We analyze the impact of ideology on the size of government. In a simple model, the government sets redistribution and provision of public services according to the preferences of the median voter. Ideology is defined in terms of preferences for public services, and the impact of ideology on the size of government is shown to increase with mean income. This idea is tested using measures of ideology based on party manifestos. We show that the interaction of ideology and mean income has a major role in explaining the increase and divergence in government size observed across OECD countries.
Abstract We consider a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) in which firms follow one of four price‐setting regimes: sticky prices, sticky information, rule of thumb, or full‐information flexible prices. The parameters of the model, including the fraction of each type of firm, are estimated by matching the moments of the observed variables of the model to those found in the data. We find that sticky price firms and sticky information firms jointly account for over 80% of firms in the model. We compare the performance of our hybrid model to pure sticky price and sticky information models along various dimensions, including monetary policy implications.
Abstract How and why do politicians' preferences about monetary policy differ from the interest rates set by independent central banks? Looking at the European Central Bank (ECB), this paper shows that politicians, on average, favor significantly lower interest rates. Three factors explain the different preferences. First, politicians put relatively less weight on inflation (and more on output) in their preferred monetary policy reaction function. Second, their preferences are affected by political economy motives. Third, different preferences are also, and largely, due to different constituencies, as politicians primarily focus on national economic objectives rather than the euro area as a whole.
Abstract This paper examines whether giving large cash transfers to financially distressed people causes them to avoid bankruptcy. A comparison of Florida Lottery winners who randomly received $50,000 to $150,000 to small winners indicates that such transfers only postpone bankruptcy rather than prevent it, a result inconsistent with the negative shock model of bankruptcy. Furthermore, the large winners who subsequently filed for bankruptcy had similar net assets and unsecured debt as small winners. Thus, our findings suggest that skepticism regarding the long-term impact of cash transfers may be warranted.
Abstract Employing droughts and floods to proxy for changes in precipitation, this paper shows nomadic incursions into settled Han Chinese regions over a period of more than two thousand years—the most enduring clash of civilizations in history—to be positively correlated with less rainfall and negatively correlated with more rainfall. Consistent with findings that economic shocks are positively correlated with conflicts in modern sub-Saharan Africa when instrumented by rainfall, our reduced-form results extend this relationship to a very different temporal and geographical context, the Asian continent, and long historical period.
Abstract We propose a first-order bias correction term for the Gini index to reduce the bias due to grouping. It depends on only the number of individuals in each group and is derived from a measurement error framework. We also provide a formula for the remaining second-order bias. Both Monte Carlo and EU and U.S. empirical evidence show that the first-order correction reduces a considerable share of the bias, but that some remaining second-order bias is increasing in the variance. We propose a procedure that addresses the remaining second-order bias by using additional information.
Abstract This paper exploits India's rapid, comprehensive, and externally imposed trade reform to establish a causal link between changes in tariffs and firm productivity. Pro-competitive forces, resulting from lower tariffs on final goods, as well as access to better inputs, due to lower input  tariffs, both appear to have increased firm-level productivity, with input tariffs having a larger impact. The effect was strongest in import-competing industries and industries not subject to excessive domestic regulation. While we find no evidence of a differential impact according to state-level characteristics, we observe complementarities between trade liberalization and additional industrial policy reforms.
Abstract This study explores to what extent migration has contributed to improved living standards of individuals in Tanzania. Using a thirteen-year panel survey, we find that migration between 1991 and 2004 added 36 percentage points to consumption growth. Although moving out of agriculture resulted in much higher growth than staying in agriculture, growth was always greater in any sector if the individual physically moved. As to why more people do not move given the high returns to geographical mobility, analysis finds evidence consistent with models in which exit barriers set by home communities prevent the migration of some categories of people.
Abstract U.S. firms' stock return volatility rose fivefold from 1971 through 2000 and then reverted to near 1971 levels by 2006. This was driven mainly by a rise and fall in the firm-specific, rather than systematic, component of volatility. Firm-level total factor productivity growth volatility exhibited a similar pattern. We hypothesize that firm heterogeneity, reflected in firm-specific volatility, rises as a new general purpose technology (GPT) propagates across the economy and then ebbs once the GPT is widespread. Measuring GPT adoption by information technology capital intensity, we find robust cross-industry empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis.
Abstract I look for divisions to clusters among academic departments in three disciplines: economics, mathematics, and comparative literature. I define clusters as subsets of departments with unexpectedly little hiring across the cluster lines. The division within economics is by far the strongest, is consistent with anecdotal evidence about “freshwater” and “saltwater” schools of thought and has been stable over time. There is also a significant division within comparative literature, but the hiring patterns among top mathematics departments are consistent with random matching.
Abstract In this paper, we estimate the extent of misclassification in patent examination decisions between the European Patent Office (EPO) and the Japanese Patent Office (JPO), that is, applications that are incorrectly refused a patent or incorrectly granted a patent. Using a proxy for inventive step as the predictor of the correct decision, we find that the probability that a “true grant” application is refused is 6.1%, while the probability that a “true refusal” application is granted is 9.8%. However, we find no evidence of an increasing trend of granting “bad” patents at the EPO and JPO.
Abstract This paper provides cross‐sectional evidence of convenient prices—prices that simplify and expedite transactions, reducing the time costs from physically making a transaction. Firms may wish to set convenient prices for items that are typically purchased with cash, are sold alone or with a few similar items, and are high‐traffic transactions, that is, that require queuing or are frequently purchased. I collect a new data set and find broad support for the use of convenient prices in locations where making a rapid transaction is important. Convenience also appears to predominantly affect goods and services with above‐average price rigidity.
Abstract We analyze the effect of survey design on reported job satisfaction by exploiting two quasi-experiments in the British Household Panel Survey: a change in question design and parallel use of different interview modes. We show that apparently minor differences in survey design lead to substantial biases in econometric results, particularly on gender differences. The common empirical finding that women care less about wages and prefer to work fewer hours than men appears largely an artifact of survey design rather than a true behavioral difference.
Abstract Previous empirical literature has found a sharp decline in consumption during the first years of retirement, implying that individuals do not save enough for their retirement. This phenomenon is called the retirement consumption puzzle. We find no evidence of the retirement consumption puzzle using panel data from 1980 to 2000. Consumption is defined as nondurable expenditure, a more comprehensive measure than only food used in many of the previous studies. We find that food expenditure declines at retirement, which is consistent with previous studies.
Abstract This paper shows that, consistent with a signaling-by-consuming model à la Veblen, income elasticities can be predicted from the visibility of consumer expenditures. We outline a stylized conspicuous consumption model where income elasticity is endogenously predicted to be higher if a good is visible and lower if it is not. We then develop a survey-based measure of expenditure visibility, ranking different expenditures by how noticeable they are to others. Finally, we show that our visibility measure predicts up to one-third of the observed variation in elasticities across consumption categories in U.S. data.
Abstract This paper uses Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data to study life satisfaction and mental health across the geography of the United States. The analysis draws on a sample of 1.3 million citizens. Initially we control for people's personal characteristics (though not income). There is no correlation between states' regression-adjusted well-being and their GDP per capita. States like Louisiana, plus Washington, D.C., have high psychological well-being levels; California and West Virginia have low well-being. When we control for incomes, satisfaction with life is lower in richer states, just as compensating-differentials theory would predict. Nevertheless, some puzzles remain.
Abstract This paper estimates the degree of stickiness in aggregate consumption growth (sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption habits) for thirteen advanced economies. We find that after controlling for measurement error, consumption growth has a high degree of autocorrelation, with a stickiness parameter of about 0.7 on average across countries. The sticky consumption growth model outperforms the random walk model of Hall (1978) and typically fits the data better than the popular Mankiw (1989) model, though in a few countries, the sticky consumption growth and Campbell-Mankiw models work about equally well.
Abstract Can terrorist attacks be timed to change the outcome of democratic elections? In this paper, we analyze the electoral impact of the terrorist attacks of March 11, 2004, in Madrid. Studies using individual level postelectoral survey data reach contradictory conclusions. We propose an alternative approach. Since the bombings took place only three days before the 2004 congressional election, we can find a control group of individuals who cast their vote before the terrorist attacks. The results indicate that the attacks had an important electoral impact, rejecting the hypothesis that the identity of the winner was unaffected by the terrorist attacks.
Abstract Most studies of comparative productivities fail to find evidence of convergence in OECD manufacturing despite major economic growth theories predicting convergence. Using manufacturing data for nineteen OECD countries over the period from 1870 to 2006, this study finds strong evidence of unconditional β-convergence as well as σ-convergence. Panel data estimates suggest that the convergence has been driven by domestic R&D, international R&D spillovers, and financial development as predicted by Schumpeterian growth theories.
Abstract We take advantage of a natural experiment in the state of Indiana to estimate the effect of daylight saving time (DST) on residential electricity consumption. Our main finding is that, contrary to the policy's intent, DST increases electricity demand. The findings are consistent with simulation results that identify a trade-off between reducing demand for lighting and increasing demand for heating and cooling. We estimate a cost to Indiana households of $9 million per year in increased electricity bills. We also estimate social costs of increased pollution emissions between $1.7 to $5.5 million per year.
Abstract This paper investigates the sources of the substantial decrease in output growth volatility in the mid-1980s by identifying which of the structural parameters in a representative New Keynesian and structural VAR models changed. Overturning conventional wisdom, we show that the Great Moderation was due not only to changes in shock volatilities but also to changes in monetary policy parameters, as well as in the private sector's parameters. The Great Moderation was previously attributed to good luck because the alternative sources of instabilities appear to have offsetting effects on output volatility and therefore were impossible to detect using existing techniques.
Abstract Many developing countries use food-price subsidies or controls to improve nutrition. However, subsidizing goods on which households spend a high proportion of their budget can create large wealth effects. Consumers may then substitute toward foods with higher nonnutritional attributes (such as taste) but lower nutritional content per unit of currency, weakening or perhaps even reversing the subsidy's intended impact. We analyze data from a randomized program of large price subsidies for poor households in two provinces of China and find no evidence that the subsidies improved nutrition. In fact, they may have had a negative impact for some households.
Abstract This paper identifies spillovers from law enforcement. Our approach makes use of microdata on compliance with TV license fees that allow us to distinguish between households that were subject to enforcement and those that were not. Using snowfall as an instrument for local inspections, we find a striking response of households to increased enforcement in their vicinity: on average, three detections make one additional household comply with the law. As compliance rises significantly among those who had no exposure to field inspections, our findings establish a sizable externality in enforcement.
Abstract We derive the distribution of a proxy for the risk tolerance in a representative sample of U.S. households. Our measure is deduced from the willingness to bear risk as indicated by the variance of returns of each household's observed portfolio. The estimates, obtained assuming constraints on portfolio composition, show substantial heterogeneity across households. We find that risk tolerance falls with age and increases with wealth. Other variables, such as education, gender, race, and household size, do not have a significant relation to risk attitude. Our findings are robust to changes in portfolio definition, asset returns, and sample composition.
Abstract Prevailing measures of relative poverty are unchanged when all incomes grow or contract by the same proportion. This property stems from seemingly implausible assumptions about the disutility of relative deprivation and the cost of social inclusion. We propose “weakly relative” lines that relax these assumptions. On calibrating our measures to national poverty lines and survey data, we find that half the population of the developing world in 2005 lived in poverty, only half of whom were absolutely poor. The total number of poor rose over 1981 to 2005 despite falling numbers of absolutely poor. With sustained economic growth, the incidence of relative poverty became less responsive to further growth. The number of relatively poor rose, just as the numbers of absolutely poor fell.
Abstract This paper conducts an event study of the impact of multilateral debt relief initiatives announcements on the stock prices of South African companies with subsidiaries in countries benefited by these initiatives. It shows that these prices increase significantly above those of other firms, especially around the launching of the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative. These price increases are consistent with lower expected levels of future taxation in the benefited countries and provide evidence of the economic consequences of multilateral debt relief that is robust to reverse causality between economic performance and the decision to grant debt relief.
Abstract We use a migration lottery program to overcome the double-selectivity problems posed by migration. We compare a wide range of outcomes for the remaining household members of Tongan emigrants with those of members of similar households who were unsuccessful in the lottery, with the policy rules determining which household members can move. Multiple hypothesis testing procedures are used to examine robustness. The overall impact on households left behind is largely negative in terms of resource availability, and both sources of selectivity matter, leading studies that fail to address them adequately to misrepresent the impact of migration on households.
Abstract We study how subjects extrapolate simple patterns in financial time series in order to develop a descriptive model of actual agent behavior. The laboratory experiment for this analysis was conducted in Germany and Japan. Statistical analyses indicate considerable similarity in expectations formation across cultures and document that agents' expectations are at variance with the notion of standard trend extrapolation. The paper then proposes a method for computing expectations for any economic time series based on the experimental data. Such pattern-based expectations are shown to explain stock prices and the dynamics of the forward discount on the foreign exchange market.
Abstract Many researchers have addressed concerns of omitted variable bias in hedonic price models through the use of spatial fixed effects. We argue that this approach does not consider the biases introduced by effects that overlap the zone of capitalization for nonmarket goods. We show this bias can dominate the usual omitted variable bias using data on developer-provided open space. We control for multiscale capitalization and omitted variables simultaneously by extending the Hausman-Taylor estimator where the panel component of the estimator is defined over repeated transactions within neighborhoods rather than the traditional definition following a unique cross-sectional unit through time.
Abstract U.S. credit unions serve 93 million members, hold 10% of U.S. savings deposits, and make 13.2% of all nonrevolving consumer loans. Since 1985, the share of U.S. depository institution assets held by credit unions has nearly doubled, and the average (inflation-adjusted) size of credit unions has increased over 600%. We use a local-linear estimator, dimesion-reduction techniques, and bootstrap methods to estimate and make inference about ray scale and expansion-path scale economies. We find substantial evidence of increasing returns to scale among credit unions of all sizes, suggesting that further consolidation and growth among credit unions are likely.
Abstract Using data for six Asian miracle economies over the period from 1953 to 2006, this paper examines the extent to which growth has been driven by R&D and tests which second-generation endogenous growth model is most consistent with the data. The results give strong support to Schumpeterian growth theory but only limited support to semi-endogenous growth theory. Furthermore, it is shown that R&D has played a key role for growth in the Asian miracle economies.
Abstract Current research on antidumping suggests a number of channels through which antidumping affects the volume of world trade. This paper uses a structural approach to the gravity model framework to evaluate these hypotheses using data on trade volume over the period 1948 to 2001. We conclude that the volume and welfare effects have been negative but quite modest.
Abstract This paper uses restricted census microdata to examine housing values and rents for neighborhoods in the United States where power plants were opened during the 1990s. Compared to neighborhoods with similar housing and demographic characteristics, neighborhoods within 2 miles of plants experienced 3%–7% decreases in housing values and rents, with some evidence of larger decreases within 1 mile and for large-capacity plants. In addition, there is evidence of taste-based sorting, with neighborhoods near plants associated with modest but statistically significant decreases in mean household income, educational attainment, and the proportion owner-occupied.
Abstract Consumption risk sharing among U.S. states increases in booms and decreases in recessions. These business cycle fluctuations in interstate risk sharing are driven mainly by states in which small businesses account for a large share of income or employment. State-level banking deregulation during the 1980s loosened the dependence of interstate risk sharing on the business cycle, mainly through its impact on states with many small firms. Our results establish a major benefit from bank deregulation: small firms' access to credit and, with it, interstate risk sharing have improved mainly when it is most urgently needed: in nationwide economic  downturns.
Abstract We study the link between price points and price rigidity using two data sets: weekly scanner data and Internet data. We find that “9” is the most frequent ending for the penny, dime, dollar, and ten-dollar digits; the most common price changes are those that keep the price endings at “9”; 9-ending prices are less likely to change than non-9-ending prices; and the average size of price change is larger for 9-ending than non-9-ending prices. We conclude that 9-ending contributes to price rigidity from penny to dollar digits and across a wide range of product categories, retail formats, and retailers.
Abstract The production of copyrighted materials varies widely across countries, and how it evolves over time has important policy implications. I propose a simple dynamic model of copyrights and the public domain, which predicts conditional convergence of per capita copyright production among countries. Using book and film production data for the period 1975 to 1995, I test and confirm the model's prediction that copyright-poor countries tend to grow faster than copyright-rich countries in terms of per capita copyright production.
Abstract This paper reports evidence that OECD economies adopting fixed exchange rates in the process of forming the European currency union experienced declines in labor share of income at the industry level. This occurs most sharply among countries that experienced the biggest changes in their exchange rate policy. An implication of New Keynesian sticky price theory is that monetary policy has a first-order impact on labor share through the interaction of business cycle uncertainty and the choice of optimal markups. However, there is also evidence that goods market integration encouraged by the euro had a negative impact on the bargaining position of labor.
Abstract We compare the finite-sample performance of impulse response confidence intervals based on local projections (LPs) and vector autoregressive (VAR) models in linear stationary settings. We find that in small samples, the asymptotic LP interval often is less accurate than the bias-adjusted bootstrap VAR interval, notwithstanding its excessive average length. Although the asymptotic LP interval has adequate coverage in sufficiently large samples, its average length still far exceeds that of bias-adjusted bootstrap VAR intervals with comparable accuracy. Bootstrap LP intervals (with or without bias correction) and asymptotic VAR intervals are shorter on average, but they often lack coverage accuracy in finite samples.
Abstract We estimate the factors determining specialization of crop choice at the level of individual fields, distinguishing between the role of natural advantage (soil characteristics) and economies of density (scale economies achieved when farmers plant neighboring fields the same). Using rich geographic data from North Dakota, including new data on crop choice collected by satellite, we estimate a model of how a farmer plants adjacent fields under the farmer's control. We find planting decisions on a field are heavily dependent on the soil characteristics of adjacent fields. Through this relationship, we back out the structural parameters of economies of density.
Abstract We show that geography, through its impact on history, can have important effects on economic development today. The analysis focuses on the historic interaction between ruggedness and Africa's slave trades. Although rugged terrain hinders trade and most productive activities, negatively affecting income globally, rugged terrain within Africa afforded protection to those being raided during the slave trades. Since the slave trades retarded subsequent economic development, ruggedness within Africa has also had a historic indirect positive effect on income. Studying all countries worldwide, we estimate the differential effect of ruggedness on income for Africa. We show that the differential effect of ruggedness is statistically significant and economically meaningful, it is found in Africa only, it cannot be explained by other factors like Africa's unique geographic environment, and it is fully accounted for by the history of the slave trades.
Abstract This paper considers how the diffusion of oral contraception to young unmarried women affected the number and parental characteristics of children born to these women. In the short term, pill access caused declines in fertility and increases in both the share of children born with low birthweight and the share born to poor households. In the long term, access led to negligible changes in fertility while increasing the share of children with college-educated mothers and decreasing the share with divorced mothers. The short-term effects appear to be driven by upwardly mobile women opting out of early childbearing, while the long-term effects appear to be driven by a retiming of births to later ages. These effects differ from those of abortion legalization, although we find suggestive evidence that pill diffusion lowered abortions. Our results suggest that abortion and the pill are on average used for different purposes by different women, but on the margin, some women substitute from abortion toward the pill when both are available.
Abstract Using a method-of-moments estimator, flexible three-parameter beta distributions are fitted to aggregate country-level income data to overcome an untenable assumption of previous studies that persons within each income group receive the same income. Regional and global income distributions are derived as weighted mixtures of country-specific distributions. Analytical expressions for Gini and Theil's measures of inequality at country, regional, and global levels are derived in terms of the parameters of the beta distributions. Application to data for 91 countries in 1993 and 2000 reveals a high degree of global inequality, with evidence of declining inequality, largely attributable to growth in China.
Abstract We address long-standing concerns in the literature on compensating wage differentials: the econometric properties of the estimated value of statistical life (VSL) and the wide range of such estimates. We confront prominent econometric issues using panel data, a more accurate fatality risk measure, and systematic application of panel data estimators. Controlling for measurement error, endogeneity, latent individual heterogeneity possibly correlated with regressors, state dependence, and sample composition yields VSL estimates of $4 million to $10 million. The comparatively narrow range clarifies the cost-effectiveness of regulatory decisions. Most important econometrically is controlling for latent heterogeneity; less important is how one does it.
Abstract This paper presents an alternative method to derive the limiting distribution of residual-based statistics. Our method does not impose an explicit assumption of (asymptotic) smoothness of the statistic of interest with respect to the model's parameters and thus is especially useful in cases where such smoothness is difficult to establish. Instead, we use a locally uniform convergence in distribution condition, which is automatically satisfied by residual-based specification test statistics. To illustrate, we derive the limiting distribution of a new functional form specification test for discrete choice models, as well as a runs-based tests for conditional symmetry in dynamic volatility models.
Abstract This paper examines the exchange rate predictability stemming from the equilibrium model of international financial adjustment developed by Gourinchas and Rey (2007). Using predictive variables that measure cyclical external imbalances for country pairs, we assess the ability of this model to forecast out-of-sample four major U.S. dollar exchange rates using various economic criteria of model evaluation. The analysis shows that the model provides economic value to a risk-averse investor, delivering substantial utility gains when switching from a portfolio strategy based on the random walk benchmark to one that conditions on cyclical external imbalances.
Abstract Expert agents, such as lawyers, play a prominent role in conflict resolution, yet little is known about how they affect outcomes. We construct a model that permits us to estimate the influence of agents and test whether the parties in a dispute face prisoner's dilemma incentives. Using eighteen years of final-offer arbitration data from New Jersey, we find the parties do significantly better when they retain agents and that the parties learn about this benefit over time. However, we also find that the gain to using an agent is fully offset when the opposing party also hires an agent. Since agents are costly, this noncooperative equilibrium is Pareto inferior.
Abstract We derive Lagrange multiplier and likelihood ratio specification tests for the null hypotheses of multivariate normal and Student-t innovations using the generalized hyperbolic distribution as our alternative hypothesis. We decompose the corresponding Lagrange multiplier-type tests into skewness and kurtosis components. We also obtain more powerful one-sided Kuhn-Tucker versions that are equivalent to the likelihood ratio test, whose asymptotic distribution we provide. Finally, we conduct detailed Monte Carlo exercises to study the size and power properties of our proposed tests in finite samples.
Abstract We semiparametrically estimate average causal effects of different lengths of exposure to academic and vocational instruction in the Job Corps (JC) under the assumption that selection into different lengths is based on a rich set of observed covariates and time-invariant factors. We find that the estimated effects on future earnings increase in the length of exposure and that the marginal effects of additional instruction decrease with length of exposure. We also document differences in the estimated effects across demographic groups, which are particularly large between males and females. Finally, our results suggest an important lock-in effect in JC training.
Abstract We compare the most common reduced-form models used for emissions forecasting, point out shortcomings, and suggest improvements. Using a U.S. state-level panel data set of CO2 emissions, we test the performance of existing models against a large universe of potential reduced-form models. We find that leading models in the literature, as well as models selected based on an emissions per capita loss measure or different in-sample selection criteria, perform significantly worse compared to the best model chosen based directly on the out-of-sample loss measure defined over aggregate emissions.
Abstract China's rapid industrialization has led to a severe deterioration in water quality in the country's lakes and rivers. By exploiting variation in pollution across China's river basins, I estimate that a deterioration of water quality by a single grade (on a six-grade scale) increases the digestive cancer death rate by 9.7%. The analysis rules out other potential explanations such as smoking rates, dietary patterns, and air pollution. I estimate that doubling China's levy rates for wastewater dumping would save roughly 17,000 lives per year but require an additional [dollar]500 million in annual spending on wastewater treatment.
Abstract Using a very large sample of matched author-referee pairs, we examine how referees' and authors' genders affect the referees' recommendations. Relying on changing author-referee matches, we find no evidence of gender differences among referees in charitableness, nor is there any effect of the interaction between the referees' and authors' genders. With substantial laboratory research showing gender differences in fairness, the results suggest that outside the laboratory, an ethos of objectivity  can overcome possible tendencies toward same-group favoritism or opposite-group discrimination.
Abstract The business cycle is a fundamental yet elusive concept in macroeconomics. In this paper, we consider the problem of measuring the business cycle. First, we argue for the output-gap view that the business cycle corresponds to transitory deviations in economic activity away from a permanent, or trend, level. Then we investigate the extent to which a general model-based approach to estimating trend and cycle for the U.S. economy leads to measures of the business cycle that reflect models versus the data. We find empirical support for a nonlinear time series model that produces a business cycle measure with an asymmetric shape across NBER expansion and recession phases. Specifically, this business cycle measure suggests that recessions are periods of relatively large and negative transitory fluctuations in output. However, several close competitors to the nonlinear model produce business cycle measures of widely differing shapes and magnitudes. Given this model-based uncertainty, we construct a model-averaged measure of the business cycle. This measure also displays an asymmetric shape and is closely related to other measures of economic slack such as the unemployment rate and capacity utilization.
Abstract We model the interrelations of equity market volatility in eight East Asian countries before, during, and after the Asian currency crisis. Using a new class of asymmetric volatility multiplicative error models based on the daily range, we find that dynamic propagation of volatility shocks occurs through a network of interdependencies, and shocks originating in Hong Kong may be amplified in their transmission throughout the system, posing greater risks to the region than shocks originating elsewhere. Although this partly explains the severity of the currency crisis, we also find evidence that parameters shifted, making the system more unstable during the crisis.
Abstract We examine the impact of the Internet on the leading American recreation activity: watching television. We run a panel regression using television viewing, Internet penetration, and socioeconomic variables for a large number of American cities starting before the birth of the Web. We find that the Internet's effect on television viewing varies by age group, reducing it by a moderate amount for the youngest Americans but having no impact on the viewing of the oldest Americans. We hypothesize that the overall effect is likely to increase over time as older age groups have more experience with the Internet's recreational opportunities.
Abstract We investigate whether experimental subjects can predict behavior in a prisoner's dilemma played on a TV show. Subjects report probabilistic beliefs that a player cooperates, before and after the players communicate. Subjects correctly predict that women and players who make a voluntary promise are more likely to cooperate. They are able to distinguish truth from lies when a player is asked about her intentions by the host. Subjects are to some extent able to predict behavior; their beliefs are 7~percentage points higher for cooperators than for defectors. We also study their Bayesian updating. Beliefs do not satisfy the martingale property and display mean reversion.
Abstract Instrumental variable (IV) methods are widely used to identify causal effects in models with endogenous explanatory variables. Often the instrument exclusion restriction that underlies the validity of the usual IV inference is suspect; that is, instruments are only plausibly exogenous. We present practical methods for performing inference while relaxing the exclusion restriction. We illustrate the approaches with empirical examples that examine the effect of 401(k) participation on asset accumulation, price elasticity of demand for margarine, and returns to schooling. We find that inference is informative even with a substantial relaxation of the exclusion restriction in two of the three cases.
Abstract This paper shows that utility differences between the self-employed and employees increase with financial development. This effect is explained not by increased profits but by an increased value of nonmonetary benefits, in particular job independence. We interpret these findings by building a simple occupational choice model in which financial constraints may impede the creation of firms and depress labor demand, thereby pushing some individuals into self-employment for lack of salaried jobs. In this setting, financial development favors a better matching between individual motivation and occupation, thereby increasing entrepreneurial utility despite increasing competition and so reducing profits.
Abstract We examine the relation between pay-performance sensitivity (PPS), the convexity of managerial compensation (Vega), and future stock risk and returns for a large sample of firms between 1992 and 2004. Higher PPS and Vega are both associated with lower future stock returns. Part of this negative relation can be explained by risk-averse managers decreasing equity risk in response to increases in PPS and Vega. However, even after correcting for lower future risk, future stock returns are negatively associated with the magnitude of option sensitivity. This finding is consistent with previous studies that link high option compensation to manager-owner agency problems.
Abstract In 2003, after claims of dumping, the United States imposed heavy tariffs on Vietnamese catfish, which led to a collapse of imports. We use panel data to explore household responses in the catfish-producing Mekong delta between 2002 and 2004 and find that income growth was significantly slower among households relatively more involved in catfish farming in 2002. This is explained by a relative decline in both catfish income and revenues from other miscellaneous farm activities. Labor supply did not adjust, most likely because of off-farm employment limitations. Households more exposed to the shock reduced the share of investment assigned to catfish while substituting into agriculture.
Abstract This paper investigates whether patent applicants strategically withhold citations to material prior art. Citation data suggest that applicants withhold between 21% and 33% of relevant citations. Variation in withholdings is explained by patent portfolio size and indicators of patent value. These data also highlight important differences across technology classes. In particular, firms are significantly less likely to withhold a citation when applying for chemical and drug patents. Robustness checks confirm that these results are not explained by inventor and attorney familiarity with citations, patent examiner heterogeneity, or the nationality of the inventor.
Abstract This paper examines the determinants of the choice of the college major when the length of studies and future earnings are uncertain. We estimate a three-stage schooling decision model, focusing on the effect of expected earnings on major choice. We control for dynamic selection through the use of mixture distributions. Exploiting variations across the French business cycle in the relative returns to the majors, our results yield a very low, though significant, elasticity of major choice to expected earnings. This suggests that at least for the French university context, nonpecuniary factors are a key determinant of schooling choices.
Abstract In this paper we analyze the long-run impact of immigration on employment, productivity, and its skill bias. We use the existence of immigrant communities across U.S. states before 1960 and the distance from the Mexican border as instruments for immigration flows. We find no evidence that immigrants crowded out employment. At the same time, we find that immigration had a strong, positive association with total factor productivity and a negative association with the high skill bias of production technologies. The results are consistent with the idea that immigrants promoted efficient task specialization, thus increasing TFP, and also promoted the adoption of unskilled-efficient technologies.
Abstract Concert tickets can be sold at the same price or at different prices that reflect different seating categories. Price discrimination generates about 5% greater revenues than single-price ticketing. The return to price discrimination is higher in markets with greater demand heterogeneity, as predicted by price discrimination theory. The return to an increase from three to four concert seat categories is roughly half that of an increase from one to two.
Abstract Although most U.S. income inequality research is based on public use March CPS data, a new wave of research using IRS tax return data reports substantially faster inequality growth for recent years. We show that these apparently inconsistent estimates are largely reconciled when the income distribution and inequality are defined the same way. Using internal CPS data for 1967 to 2006, we show that CPS-based estimates of top income shares are similar to IRS data-based estimates reported by Piketty and Saez (2003). Our results imply that income inequality changes since 1993 are largely driven by changes in incomes of the top 1%.
Abstract We examine the effect of oil price fluctuations on democratic institutions over the 1960–2007 period. We also exploit the very persistent response of income to oil price fluctuations to study the effect of persistent (oil-price-driven) income shocks on democracy. Our results indicate that countries with greater net oil exports over GDP see improvements in democratic institutions following upturns in international oil prices. We estimate that a 1 percentage point increase in per capita GDP growth due to a positive oil price shock increases the Polity democracy score by around 0.2 percentage points on impact and by around 2 percentage points in the long run. The effect on the probability of a democratic transition is around 0.4 percentage points.
Abstract We document a within-month mortality cycle where deaths decline before the first day of the month and spike after the first. This cycle is present across a wide variety of causes and demographic groups. A similar cycle exists for a range of economic activities, suggesting the mortality cycle may be due to short-term variation in levels of economic activity. We provide evidence that the within-month activity cycle is generated by liquidity. Our results suggest a causal pathway whereby liquidity problems reduce activity, which in turn reduces mortality. These relationships may help explain the procyclical nature of mortality.
Abstract This paper uses a unique panel data set of an insurer's transactions with repeat customers. Consistent with the asymmetric learning hypothesis that repeated contracting enables sellers to obtain an informational advantage over their rivals, I find that the insurer makes higher profits in transactions with repeat customers who have a good claims history with the insurer, the insurer reduces the price charged to these repeat customers by less than the reduction in expected costs associated with such customers, and repeat customers with bad claim histories are more likely to flee their record by switching to other insurers.
Abstract Levels of development vary widely within countries in the Americas. We argue that part of this variation has its roots in the colonial era, when colonizers engaged in different economic activities in different regions of a country. We present evidence consistent with the view that “bad” activities (those that depended heavily on labor exploitation) led to lower economic development today than “good” activities (those that did not rely on labor exploitation). Our results also suggest that differences in political representation (but not in income inequality or human capital) could be the intermediating factor between colonial activities and current development.
Abstract The quiet life hypothesis posits that firms with market power incur inefficiencies rather than reap monopolistic rents. We propose a simple adjustment to Lerner indices to account for the possibility of forgone rents to test this hypothesis. For a large sample of U.S. commercial banks, we find that adjusted Lerner indices are significantly larger than conventional Lerner indices and trending upward over time. Instrumental variable regressions reject the quiet life hypothesis for cost inefficiencies. However, Lerner indices adjusted for profit inefficiencies reveal a quiet life among U.S. banks.
Abstract The goal of this paper is to develop techniques to simplify semiparametric inference. We do this by deriving a number of numerical equivalence results. These illustrate that in many cases, one can obtain estimates of semiparametric variances using standard formulas derived in the well-known parametric literature. This means that for computational purposes, an empirical researcher can ignore the semiparametric nature of the problem and do all calculations as if it were a parametric situation. We hope that this simplicity will promote the use of semiparametric procedures.
Abstract In 2007, the Consumer Product Safety Commission issued 212 recalls of toys and other children's products, a sizable increase from previous years. We investigate changes in toy sales following these recalls. We find that for manufacturers that had recalls, unit sales of the types of toys involved in the recall fell relative to their sales of toys in other categories. We do not find evidence of within-manufacturer spillovers to dissimilar toys. We do, however, find large industry-wide spillovers in the form of sales losses to manufacturers that did not experience any recalls. Our results shed light on how consumers may draw inferences from information about product safety.
Abstract Using German microdata and a quasi-natural experiment, we provide evidence on how households respond to an increase in uncertainty. We find that household saving increases significantly following the increase in political uncertainty observed in the run-up to the 1998 German general election. We also find evidence of a labor supply response by workers who can use the margin offered by part-time employment. Our results are suggestive of the economic effects of “wars of attrition”: when political disagreement leads to delays in adopting a reform or the possibility that earlier reforms may be revoked, the increased uncertainty could slow the economy.
Abstract This paper provides new evidence on the impact of private property rights and employer-provided housing on entrepreneurship. I find an increase in self-employment following a reform in urban China that allowed state employees who were renting state-owned housing the opportunity to buy their homes at subsidized prices. I develop a model of job choice to test two mechanisms that might explain how the reform increased entrepreneurship. I find evidence that the reform reduced labor mobility costs and alleviated credit constraints by allowing households to capitalize on the value of the real estate.
Abstract Model uncertainty hampers consensus on the key determinants of economic growth. Some recent cross-country cross-sectional analyses have employed Bayesian model averaging to tackle the issue of model uncertainty. This paper extends that approach to panel data models with country-specific fixed effects in order to simultaneously address model uncertainty and endogeneity issues. The empirical findings suggest that in a panel setting, the most robust growth determinants are the price of investment goods, distance to major world cities, and political rights.
Abstract Using controlled experiments, we examine how individuals make choices when faced with multiple options. Choice tasks are designed to mimic the selection of health insurance, prescription drug, or retirement savings plans. In our experiment, available options can be objectively ranked, allowing us to examine optimal decision making. First, the probability of a person selecting the optimal option declines as the number of options increases, with the decline being more pronounced for older subjects. Second, heuristics differ by age, with older subjects relying more on suboptimal decision rules. In a heuristics validation experiment, older subjects make worse decisions than younger subjects.
Abstract This paper uses administrative longitudinal microdata on junior high school students in Uruguay to measure the effect of grade failure on students' subsequent school outcomes. Exploiting the discontinuity induced by a rule establishing automatic grade failure for pupils with more than three failed subjects, I show that grade failure leads to substantial dropout and lower educational attainment even four to five years after grade failure occurred.
Abstract Due to its simplicity and familiarity, the Gaussian copula is popular in calculating risk in collaterized debt obligations, but it imposes asymptotic independence such that extreme events appear to be unrelated. This restriction might be innocuous in normal times, but during extreme events, such as the housing crisis, the Gaussian copula might be inappropriate. This paper explores various copula specifications and finds that the degree to which housing prices are related based on the Gaussian copula is too small compared with real housing price data.
Abstract Since 1970, the fraction of mixed-race black-white births has increased nearly ninefold. This paper describes basic facts about the behaviors and outcomes of black-white mixed-race individuals. Unsurprisingly, on a host of background and achievement characteristics, as well as adult outcomes, mixed-race individuals fall in between whites and blacks. When it comes to engaging in risky and antisocial adolescent behavior, however, mixed-race adolescents are stark outliers compared to both blacks and whites. We argue that these behavioral patterns are most consistent with a two-sector Roy model, in which mixed-race adolescents, not having a predetermined peer group, engage in more risky behaviors in order to be accepted.
Abstract We exploit increases in postpartum length of stay generated by legislative changes in the late 1990s to identify the impact of greater hospital care on the health of newborns. Using all births in California over the 1995–2000 period, two-stage least-square estimates show that increased treatment intensity had a modest impact on readmission probabilities for the average newborn. Allowing the treatment effect to vary by two objective measures of medical need demonstrates that the law had large impacts for those with the greatest likelihood of a readmission. The results suggest that the returns to average and marginal patients vary considerably in this context.
Abstract Government regulation of firms is associated with more negative externalities and unofficial activity across countries. I argue that this correlation mainly reflects causality going from concerns about market failures to demand for government intervention. Using trust in others as a proxy for such concerns, I show that differences in trust explain a great deal of variation in entry regulations. Then, controlling for trust in the regression of market failures on regulation, the latter is no longer associated with worse economic outcomes. The same result is confirmed when I exploit country population as an alternative source of variation in regulation.
Abstract Dealing with endogenous regressors is a central challenge of applied research. The standard solution is to use instrumental variables that are assumed to be uncorrelated with unobservables. We instead allow the instrumental variable to be correlated with the error term, but we assume  the correlation between the instrumental variable and the error term has the same sign as the correlation between the endogenous regressor and the error term and  that the instrumental variable is less correlated with the error term than is the endogenous regressor. Using these assumptions, we derive analytic bounds for the parameters. We demonstrate that the method can generate useful (set) estimates by using it to estimate demand for differentiated products.
Abstract This paper analyzes how electoral incentives affected the performance of a major decentralized conditional cash transfer program intended on reducing school dropout rates among children of poor households in Brazil. We show that while this federal program successfully reduced school dropout by 8 percentage points, the program's impact was 36% larger in municipalities governed by mayors who faced reelection possibilities compared to those with lame-duck mayors. First-term mayors with good program performance were much more likely to be reelected. These mayors adopted program implementation practices that were not only more transparent but also associated with better program outcomes.
Abstract University tuition typically remains constant throughout the years of enrollment while delayed degree completion is increasingly a problem for academic institutions around the world. Theory suggests that if continuation tuition were raised, the probability of late graduation would be reduced. Using a regression discontinuity design on data from Bocconi University in Italy, we show that a 1,000 euro increase in continuation tuition reduces the probability of late graduation by 5.2% when the benchmark probability is 80%. This decline is not associated with an increase in the dropout rate or a fall in the quality of students performance.
Abstract I estimate the effects of affirmative action bans on college enrollment, educational attainment, and college demographic composition by exploiting time and state variation in bans. I find that bans have no effect on the typical student and the typical college, but they decrease underrepresented minority enrollment and increase white enrollment at selective colleges. In addition, I use the case study methods of Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003) and Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller (2010) and find that the affirmative action ban in California shifted underrepresented minority students from more selective campuses to less selective ones at the University of California.
Abstract We develop a framework to empirically examine how politicians with electoral pressures control bureaucrats with career concerns and the consequent implications for bureaucrats' career investments. Unique microlevel data on Indian bureaucrats support our key predictions. Politicians use frequent reassignments (transfers) across posts of varying importance to control bureaucrats. High-skilled bureaucrats face less frequent political transfers and lower variability in the importance of their posts. We find evidence of two alternative paths to career success: officers of higher initial ability are more likely to invest in skill, but caste affinity to the politician's party base also helps secure important positions.
Abstract We develop a simple model to study the interactions between a supplier's financial constraints and contract incompleteness in a vertical relationship. Applied to the analysis of multinational firms' sourcing strategies, the model predicts: (i) that complex and specific inputs are more likely to be sourced from financially developed countries and (ii) that multinationals are more likely to integrate suppliers located in countries with poor financial institutions, especially when trade involves complex goods. These predictions are examined and validated using firm-level trade data on multinational firms with operations in France.
Abstract Female entrepreneurs may be less networked than their male counterparts and so derive less benefit from agglomeration. They may also have greater domestic burdens and therefore have higher commuting costs. This paper develops a theoretical model showing that either of these forces can lead to the segregation of male- and female-owned businesses, with female entrepreneurs choosing locations farther from agglomerations and commuting shorter distances. Empirical analysis is consistent with these predictions. Female-owned businesses are segregated, often to a degree similar to black-white residential segregation. Female-owned enterprises are less exposed to agglomeration, with 10% to 20% less own-industry employment nearby.
Abstract This paper tests the effect of background risk on university endowment portfolios, where background risk is defined as the volatility of universities' nonfinancial income. The results show that higher background risk is associated with lower portfolio standard deviations. Universities with higher background risk invest significantly more in fixed income and less in alternative assets. A 1 standard deviation increase in background risk increases the allocation to fixed income by approximately 15% relative to the mean. There is also evidence that wealthier, highly selective universities hold riskier portfolios.
Abstract In this paper, we investigate the comparative properties of empirically estimated monetary models of the U.S. economy using a new database of models designed for such investigations. We focus on three representative models due to Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005), Smets and Wouters (2007), and Taylor (1993a). Although these models differ in terms of structure, estimation method, sample period, and data vintage, we find surprisingly similar economic impacts of unanticipated changes in the federal funds rate. However, optimized monetary policy rules differ across models and lack robustness. Model averaging offers an effective strategy for improving the robustness of policy rules.
Abstract In this paper, we show that there are important differences across patent examiners at the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. We show that more experienced examiners cite less prior art, are more likely to grant patents, and are more likely to grant patents without any rejections. These results suggest that the most important decisions made by the patent office are significantly affected by the happenstance of which examiner gets an application. They also point to human resource policies as potentially important levers, hitherto neglected, in patent system reform.
Abstract Using cross-state variation in minimum wages, we observe a positive relationship between the minimum wage and the number of alcohol-related accidents involving teen drivers. A similar effect is not observed when examining accidents among adults. The results are consistent with a positive income elasticity for alcoholic beverages and driving activities among young people, in particular for consumption out of discretionary income accorded by higher minimum wages. Evidence of a sizable impact of beer taxes on alcohol-related accidents among youths suggests that beer taxes are one avenue for policymakers to consider in counteracting this unintended consequence of minimum wages.
Abstract We investigate how the link between individual schooling and political participation is affected by country characteristics. Using individual survey data, we find that political participation is more responsive to schooling in land-abundant countries and less responsive in human capital–abundant countries, even while controlling for country political institutions and cultural attitudes. We find related evidence that political participation is less responsive to schooling in countries with a higher skill premium, as well as within countries for individuals in skilled occupations. The evidence motivates a theoretical explanation in which patterns of political participation are influenced by the opportunity cost of engaging in political rather than production activities.
Abstract The short-run effects of fiscal policy depend not only on current tax and spending choices, but also on expectations about future policy adjustment. While general equilibrium models typically restrict medium-term adjustment to taxation, we highlight the importance of government spending dynamics. First, we provide time series evidence for the United States suggesting that an exogenous increase in government spending prompts a rise in public debt, followed over time by a reduction in spending below trend. Second, we show how expected spending reversals alter the short-run impact of fiscal policy in a new Keynesian model, bringing it closer in line with the evidence.
Abstract I exploit the variation in demographic change across the United States to estimate the relationship between the age distribution in the population and the magnitude of cyclical output volatility. According to panel regression estimates, the relative supply of young workers, or youth share, has a statistically significant effect on the volatility of state-by-state GDP. Moreover, changes to the age distribution can account for up to 58% of the recent reduction in business cycle fluctuations, indicating a critical link between the youth share and output volatility.
Abstract Empirically, a higher frequency of lightning strikes is associated with slower growth in labor productivity across the 48 contiguous U.S. states after 1990; before 1990, there is no correlation between growth and lightning. Other climate variables (e.g., temperature, rainfall, and tornadoes) do not conform to this pattern. A viable explanation is that lightning influences IT diffusion. By causing voltage spikes and dips, a higher frequency of ground strikes leads to damaged digital equipment and thus higher IT user costs. Accordingly, the flash density (strikes per square kilometer per year) should adversely affect the speed of IT diffusion. We find that lightning indeed seems to have slowed IT diffusion, conditional on standard controls. Hence, an increasing macroeconomic sensitivity to lightning may be due to the increasing importance of digital technologies for the growth process.
Abstract In December 2003, the Brazilian Congress passed a law that led to a natural personal lending experiment. The law allows banks to offer loans with repayment through automatic payroll deduction, which, in effect, turns future income into collateral. We estimate the impact of the new law using auto loans as a control group. The law has caused a reduction in interest rates and an increase in the volume of personal credit.
Abstract This paper develops a framework for inferring common Markov-switching components in panel data sets with large cross-section and time series dimensions. We study similarities and differences across U.S. states in the timing of business cycles. We hypothesize that there exists a small number of cluster designations, with individual states in a given cluster sharing certain business cycle characteristics. We find that although oil-producing and agricultural states can sometimes experience a separate recession from the rest of the United States, for the most part, differences across states appear to be a matter of timing, with some states entering recession or recovering before others.
Abstract This paper argues that factor demand linkages can be important for the transmission of both sectoral and aggregate shocks. We show this using a panel of highly disaggregated manufacturing sectors together with sectoral structural VARs. When sectoral interactions are explicitly accounted for, a contemporaneous technology shock to all manufacturing sectors implies a positive response in both output and hours at the aggregate level. Otherwise there is a negative correlation, as in much of the existing literature. Furthermore, we find that technology shocks are important drivers of the business cycle.
Abstract This study presents evidence suggesting that attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) offers potential for raising the quality of exports in developing countries. Our analysis relates unit values of exports at the four-digit SITC level to data on sectors treated by investment promotion agencies as a priority in their efforts to attract FDI. The sample covers 105 countries from 1984 to 2000. The findings are consistent with a positive effect of FDI on unit values of exports in developing countries. The evidence for high-income economies is ambiguous. There is no indication that FDI increases the similarity of export structure of developing and developed economies.
Abstract This paper describes how we constructed a real-time database for the euro area. The database covers more than 200 series regularly published in the European Central Bank Monthly Bulletin, as made available to the Governing Council members for their first monthly meeting. We study the properties of the real-time data flow and data revisions in the euro area, also providing comparisons with the United States and Japan. We illustrate how revisions contribute to the uncertainty surrounding key macroeconomic ratios and the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment.
Abstract Is maximum likelihood suitable for factor models in large cross-sections of time series? We answer this question from both an asymptotic and an empirical perspective. We show that estimates of the common factors based on maximum likelihood are consistent for the size of the cross-section (n) and the sample size (T), going to infinity along any path, and that maximum likelihood is viable for n large. The estimator is robust to misspecification of cross-sectional and time series correlation of the idiosyncratic components. In practice, the estimator can be easily implemented using the Kalman smoother and the EM algorithm as in traditional factor analysis.
Abstract The Panzar-Rosse test has been widely applied to assess competitive conduct, often in specifications controlling for firm scale or using a price equation. We show that neither a price equation nor a scaled revenue function yields a valid measure for competitive conduct. Moreover, even an unscaled revenue function generally requires additional information about costs and market equilibrium to infer the degree of competition. Our theoretical findings are confirmed by an empirical analysis of competition in banking, using a sample containing more than 100,000 bank-year observations on more than 17,000 banks in 63 countries during the years 1994 to 2004.
Abstract The capital structure of lending institutions has become an increasingly prominent issue in the world of finance. Contemporaneously, microfinance institutions (MFIs) have risen to the forefront as invaluable lending institutions in the development process. Since capital constraints have hindered the expansion of microfinance programs and microfinance organizations have had various degrees of sustainability, the question of how best to finance these organizations is a key issue. This paper explores how changes in capital structure could improve MFI efficiency and financial sustainability. I find causal evidence supporting the assertion that increased use of grants by large MFIs decreases operational self-sufficiency.
Abstract Two of the most robust results from dynamic competitive models of industrial organization suggest that higher-sunk-cost industries should exhibit higher intertemporal variability in the market value of their firms and lower intertemporal variability in the size of their industries. These predictions have done well empirically. This paper argues on theoretical and empirical grounds that depreciation generates countervailing effects.
Abstract In this paper, we propose a new family of multivariate loss functions to test the rationality of vector forecasts without assuming independence across variables. When only one variable is of interest, the loss function reduces to the flexible asymmetric family proposed by Elliott, Komunjer, and Timmerman (2008). Following their methodology, we derive~a GMM test for multivariate forecast rationality that allows the forecaster's loss to be nonseparable across variables and takes into account forecast estimation uncertainty. We use our test to study the joint rationality of macroeconomic forecasts in the growth rate of nominal output, CPI inflation rate, and short-term interest rate.
Abstract We investigate determinants of disagreement—cross-sectional dispersion of individual forecasts—about key economic indicators. Disagreement about economic activity, in particular about GDP growth, has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about prices: inflation and interest rates. Disagreement about GDP growth intensifies strongly during recessions. Disagreement about prices rises with their level, declines under independent central banks, and both its level and its sensitivity to macroeconomic variables are larger in countries where central banks became independent only around the mid-1990s. Our findings suggest that credible monetary policy contributes to anchoring of expectations about inflation and interest rates. Disagreement for both groups of indicators increases with uncertainty about the actual series.
Abstract We investigate inflation predictability in the United States across the monetary regimes of the twentieth century. The forecasts based on money growth and output growth were significantly more accurate than the forecasts based on past inflation only during the regimes associated with neither a clear nominal anchor nor a credible commitment to fight inflation. These include the years from the outbreak of World War II in 1939 to the implementation of the Bretton Woods Agreements in 1951 and from Nixon's closure of the gold window in 1971 to the end of Volcker's disinflation in 1983.
Abstract This paper exploits variation in the timing and outcomes of employment discrimination lawsuits against U.S. law enforcement agencies to estimate the cumulative and persistent employment effects of temporary externally imposed affirmative action (AA). We find that AA increased black employment at all ranks by 4.5 to 6.2 percentage points relative to national trends. We also find no erosion of these employment gains in the fifteen years following AA termination, although black employment growth was significantly lower in departments after AA ended than in departments whose plans continued. For women, in contrast, we find only marginal employment gains at lower ranks.
Abstract This study presents a novel empirical approach to identify financing constraints for innovation based on the concept of an ideal test (Hall, 2008). Firms were offered a hypothetical payment and asked to choose between alternatives of use. If they selected additional innovation projects, they must have had some unexploited investment opportunities that were not profitable using more costly external finance. We attribute constraints for innovation not only to lacking financing, but also to firms' innovative capability. Econometric results show that financial constraints do not depend on the availability of internal funds per se but that they are driven by innovative capability.
Abstract We find new empirical regularities in the business cycle in a cross-country panel of 22 OECD countries for the period 1972 to 2007; entrepreneurship Granger-causes the cycles of the world economy. Furthermore, the entrepreneurial cycle is positively affected by the national unemployment cycle. We discuss possible causes and implications of these findings.
Abstract The TRIPS Agreement, which specifies minimum levels of intellectual property protection for countries in the WTO, has increased levels of patent protection around the world. Using variation across countries in the timing of patent laws and the severity of disease, we test the hypothesis that increased patent protection results in greater drug development effort. We find that patent protection in wealthy countries is associated with increases in R&D effort. However, the introduction of patents in developing countries has not been followed by greater R&D investment in the diseases that are most prevalent there.
Abstract A key input to inventive activity is human capital. Hence, it is important to understand the monetary incentives of inventors. We estimate the effect of patented inventions on individual earnings by linking data on U.S. patents and their inventors to Finnish employer-employee data. Returns are heterogeneous: inventors get a temporary reward of 3% of annual earnings for a patent grant and for highly cited patents a longer-lasting premium of 30% in earnings three years later. Similar medium-term premium's accrue to inventors who initially hold the patent rights, although they forgo earnings at the time of the grant.
Abstract This paper studies the relationship between height and leadership. Using data from a representative sample of Swedish men, I document that tall men are significantly more likely to attain managerial positions. An increase in height by 10 centimeters (3.94 inches) is associated with a 2.2 percentage point increase in the probability of holding a managerial position. Selection into managerial positions explains about 15% of the unconditional height-wage premium. However, about half of the height-leadership correlation is due to a positive correlation between height and cognitive and noncognitive ability.
Abstract Nonparametric estimators of treatment effects are often applied in settings where clustering may be important. We provide a general methodology for consistently estimating the variance of a large class of nonparametric estimators, including the simple matching estimator, in the presence of clustering. Software for implementing our variance estimator is available in Stata.
Using panel data on over 300,000 Israeli women from 1999 to 2005, we exploit variation in Israel's child subsidy to identify the impact of changes in the price of a marginal child on fertility. We find a positive, statistically significant, and economically meaningful price effect on overall fertility and, consistent with Becker (1960) and Becker and Tomes (1976), a small effect of income on fertility, which is negative at low and positive at high income levels. We also find a price effect on fertility among older women, suggesting that part of the overall effect is due to a reduction in total fertility.
Abstract We examine Becker's (1960) contention that children are “normal.” For the cross-section of non-Hispanic white married couples in the United States, we show that when we restrict comparisons to similarly educated women living in similarly expensive locations, completed fertility is positively correlated with the husband's income. The empirical evidence is consistent with children being “normal.” In an effort to show causal effects, we analyze the localized impact on fertility of the mid-1970s' increase in world energy prices, an exogenous shock that substantially increased men's incomes in the Appalachian coal-mining region. Empirical evidence for that population indicates that fertility increases with men's income..
We evaluate the effect of a change in the energy code applied to buildings using residential billing data on electricity and natural gas, combined with data on observable characteristics of each residence. The study is based on comparisons between residences constructed just before and after an increase in the stringency of Florida's energy code in 2002. We find that the code change is associated with a decrease in the consumption of electricity by 4% and natural gas by 6%. We estimate average social and private payback periods that range between 3.5 and 6.4 years.
We analyze the economics of green building, finding that recent increases in the supply of green buildings and the volatility in property markets have not affected the returns to green buildings. We then analyze a large cross-section of office buildings, demonstrating that economic returns to energy-efficient buildings are substantial. Finally, we relate the economic premiums for green buildings to their relative efficiency in energy use—the attributes rated for thermal efficiency, as well as sustainability, contribute to premiums in rents and asset values. Among green buildings, increased energy efficiency is fully capitalized into rents and asset values.
Policymakers are increasingly using norm-based messages to influence individual decision making. We partner with a metropolitan water utility to implement a natural field experiment to examine the effect of such messages on residential water demand. The data, drawn from more than 100,000 households, indicate that social comparison messages had a greater influence on behavior than simple prosocial messages or technical information alone. Moreover, our data suggest that social comparison messages are most effective among households identified as the least price sensitive: high users. Yet the effectiveness of such messages wanes over time. Our results thus highlight important complementarities between pecuniary and nonpecuniary strategies.
The least-skilled workforce in the United States is disproportionally employed in the provision of time-intensive services that can be thought of as market substitutes for home production activities. At the same time, skilled workers, with their high opportunity cost of time, spend a larger fraction of their budget in these services. Given the skill asymmetry between consumers and providers in this market, product demand shifts—such as those arising when relative skilled wages increase—should boost relative labor demand for the least-skilled workforce. We estimate that this channel may explain one-third of the growth of employment of noncollege workers in low-skill services in the 1990s.
Exploiting Australia's National Service lotteries of 1965 to 1972, I estimate the effect of army service on employment outcomes. Population data from military personnel records, tax returns, veterans' compensation records, and the Census facilitate a rich and precise analysis, identified by 53,000 complying conscripts. The estimated employment effect is −12 percentage points (95% CI: −13, −11) overall, −37 for those who served in Vietnam and 0 for those who served only in Australia. It emerged in the 1990s, mirrored by veterans' disability pension effects. These results contrast with those for the United States, possibly reflecting employment disincentives associated with Australia's veterans' compensation system.
Abstract  We use econometric methods based on the propensity score to estimate the causal effect of HIV status on employment outcomes in South Africa.  Relying on rich data from a national survey, which included HIV testing, we control for systematic differences between HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals.  We provide the first nationally representative estimates of the impact of HIV status on employment outcomes for southern Africa.  Being HIV positive is associated with an increase of 6 to 7 percentage points in the likelihood of unemployment overall and 10 to 11 percentage points for those who are less educated.  This disadvantage reinforces existing inequalities in South Africa.
Abstract In October 2003, the United States drastically reduced the number of H-1B visas available for foreign-born workers. Such restrictions could make U.S. colleges less attractive to foreign students considering an American education as a pathway to U.S. employment. Citizens from five countries are de facto exempt from the visa restrictions, however. Our difference-in-difference estimates show that restrictive immigration policy reduced SAT scores of international applicants by about 1.5% and decreased the number of SAT score reports sent by international students at the top quintile of the SAT score distribution. Restrictive immigration policy disproportionately discourages high-ability international students from pursuing education  in the United States.
Abstract In a two-party legislature, districts represented by the majority may receive greater funds if majority-party legislators have greater proposal power or disproportionately form coalitions with each other. Funding types received by districts may depend on their legislators' party identity when party preferences differ. Estimates from the United States, using fixed-effect and regression-discontinuity designs, indicate that states represented by members of Congress in the majority receive greater federal grants, especially in transportation, and defense spending. States represented by Republicans receive more for defense and transportation than those represented by Democrats; the latter receive more spending for education and urban development.
Abstract This paper studies three interrelated health care decisions: insurance, utilization, and expenditures. The model treats insurance as an endogenous variable with respect to both utilization and expenditures, addresses potential selection issues, and takes into account that the decisions to use health care and the level of treatment are determined by different decision makers. We employ semiparametric methods to avoid making distributional assumptions. Using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey 2005 data, the semiparametric approach predicts insurance to increase the level of expenditures by 48%, a number in accord with an important experimental study and less than half that obtained using parametric methods.
Abstract This paper applies semiparametric regression models using penalized splines to investigate the profile of well-being over the life span. Using data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), the analysis shows a common, and quite similar, age-specific pattern of life satisfaction for both Britain and Germany that can be characterized by three age stages. The evidence suggests that the U-shaped profile is a good approximation of decreasing and increasing well-being in the first and second stage. After people reached their late 60s, however, a decline in well-being is found in the third stage.
It is often asserted that a flexible exchange rate regime would facilitate current account adjustment. Using data on over 170 countries over the 1971–2005 period, we examine this assertion systematically. We find no strong, robust, or monotonic relationship between exchange rate regime flexibility and the rate of current account reversion, even after accounting for the degree of economic development and trade and capital account openness. This finding presents a challenge to the Friedman (1953) hypothesis and a popular policy recommendation by international financial institutions.
Since the term structure of interest rates embodies information about future economic activity, we extract relative Nelson-Siegel (1987) factors from cross-country yield curve differences to proxy expected movements in future exchange rate fundamentals. Using monthly data for the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, and the United States, we show that the yield curve factors predict exchange rate movements and explain excess currency returns one month to two years ahead. Our results provide support for the asset pricing formulation of exchange rate determination and offer an intuitive explanation to the uncovered interest parity puzzle by relating currency risk premiums to inflation and business cycle risks.
Abstract  This paper provides evidence that the two leading principal components in a panel of 23 commodity convenience yields have statistically and quantitatively important predictive power for inflation even after controlling for unemployment gap and oil prices. The results hold up in out-of-sample forecasts, across forecast horizons, and across G7 countries. The convenience yields also explain commodity prices and can be seen as informational variables about future economic conditions as conveyed by the futures markets. A bootstrap procedure for conducting inference when the principal components are used as regressors is also proposed.
We use cross-country microdata and counterfactual methods to document international differences in ownership and holdings of stocks, private businesses, homes, and mortgages among older households in thirteen countries. We decompose these differences into two parts, related to population characteristics and economic environments. Shortly prior to the recent financial crisis, U.S. households tended to invest more in stocks and less in homes and to have larger mortgages than Europeans of similar characteristics. Differences in ownership and amounts are primarily linked to differences in economic environments that are more pronounced among European countries than among U.S. regions, suggesting considerable potential for harmonization.
This paper studies the innovation response of upstream technology suppliers when their downstream buyers transition from regulation to competition. By modeling the impact of the 1990s U.S. electricity deregulation on patenting, we find that after deregulation, the net competition effect (comprising the pure competition and the escape competition effect) decreased innovation by 18.3% and the appropriation effect increased innovation by 19.6%. Other deregulation factors have led to a 20.6% decline. In aggregate, after deregulation, innovation by the upstream technology suppliers has declined by 19.3%, and upstream innovation quality and generality have declined as well.
We study the expected welfare effects of targeted R&D subsidies using project-level data from Finland. We model the application and R&D investment decisions of firms and the subsidy-granting decision of the public agency in charge of the program. Our model and institutional environment allow us to identify different benefits and costs of the R&D subsidy program. We find that expected effects of subsidies are very heterogeneous and estimated application costs low on average. The social rate of return on targeted subsidies is 30% to 50%, but spillover effects of subsidies are smaller than effects on firm profits.
The paper contributes to the debate on top performance in research productivity, its persistence over time, and the impact of gender. It uses a panel data set comprising the publications of all biomedical and exact scientists at the University of Leuven in the period 1992 to 2001. We find that women have a significant lower probability of reaching top performance for the first time in their career, particularly for top performance measured through citations, but there is no evidence for a gender bias hindering repeated top performance. On the contrary, women seem to persist in top performance more easily than men do.
Abstract We propose a new measure of allocative efficiency based on unrealized increases in aggregate productivity growth. We show that the difference in the value of the marginal product of an input and its marginal cost at any plant—the plant-input gap—is exactly equal to the change in aggregate output that would occur if that plant changed that input's use by one unit. We show how to estimate this gap using plant-level data for 1982 to 1994 from Chilean manufacturing.  We find the gaps for blue- and white-collar labor are quite large in absolute value, and these gaps (unlike for materials and electricity) are increasing over time. The timing of the sharpest increases in the labor gaps suggests that they may be related to increases in severance pay.
This paper uses data from the National Hockey League (NHL) to consider the potential gains to firms from employing culturally diverse work teams. It finds that the presence of foreign workers does increase firm-level performance: NHL teams that employed a higher proportion of European players performed better. However, the results also indicate that teams perform better when their European players come from the same country rather than being spread across many European countries. When teams have players from a wide array of European countries, integration costs associated with language and cultural differences may start to override any gains from diversity.
Abstract Using business survey data, we estimate an ordered probit model to explain the occurrence of producer price increases and decreases in the French manufacturing industry. Our results show that changes in intermediate input prices are the main driver of producer price changes. Changes in firms' labor costs, their production level, or the producer price index of their industry contribute less to the occurrence of price changes. Moreover, when they face a change in their costs, firms adjust their prices upward more often and more rapidly than they do it downward, especially when the shock is perceived as permanent.
Abstract Standard solution methods for linear stochastic models with rational expectations presuppose a time-invariant structure. Consequently, credible announcements that entail future changes of the structure cannot be handled by standard solution methods. This paper develops the solution for linear stochastic rational expectations models in the face of a finite sequence of anticipated structural changes. These events encompass anticipated changes to the structural parameters and also anticipated additive shocks. We apply the solution to some examples of practical relevance to monetary policy.
Abstract Pension benefit guarantees have been introduced in several countries to protect private plan members from the loss of income associated with the termination of an underfunded plan. Most such schemes face financial difficulty. Consequently, policy reforms are being contemplated. Economic theory suggests that such schemes will suffer moral hazard problems. We test a specific theoretical prediction: insured plans will invest more heavily in risky assets. Our test exploits policy differences across Canadian jurisdictions. We find that insured plans invest about 5% more in equities than do similar plans without benefit guarantees.
Abstract This paper quantifies trade policy changes and the associated trade impacts for about 100 countries between 2008 and 2009.  Results show that there has been no widespread increase in protectionism. Only a few countries, including Russia, Argentina, Turkey, and China, have increased tariffs on major imported products.  The United States and the EU, by contrast, rely mainly on antidumping duties to shield domestic industries. Overall, while the rise in tariffs and antidumping duties may have jointly caused global trade to drop by US$43 billion, it explains less than 2% of the collapse in world trade during the crisis period.
Abstract The view that small businesses create the most jobs remains appealing to policymakers and small business advocates. Using data from the Census Bureau's Business Dynamics Statistics and Longitudinal Business Database, we explore the many issues at the core of this ongoing debate. We find that the relationship between firm size and employment growth is sensitive to these issues. However, our main finding is that once we control for firm age, there is no systematic relationship between firm size and growth. Our findings highlight the important role of business start-ups and young businesses in U.S. job creation.
Abstract In this paper, we present evidence that policy volatility exerts a strong and direct negative impact on growth. Using data for 93 countries, we construct measures of policy volatility based on the standard deviation of the residuals from country-specific regressions of government consumption on output. Undisciplined governments that implement frequent and large changes in government spending unrelated to the state of the business cycle generate lower economic growth. We employ both instrumental variables and panel estimation to address concerns of omitted variables and endogeneity. A 1 standard deviation increase in policy volatility reduces long-term economic growth by about 0.74% in the panel regressions and by more than 1 percentage point in the cross-section.
Abstract This paper argues that limited asset market participation is crucial in explaining U.S. macroeconomic performance and monetary policy before the 1980s and their changes thereafter. In an otherwise conventional sticky-price model, standard aggregate demand logic is inverted at low enough asset market participation: interest rate increases become expansionary, and passive monetary policy ensures equilibrium determinacy and maximizes welfare. This suggests that Federal Reserve policy in the pre-Volcker era was better than conventional wisdom implies. We provide empirical evidence consistent with this hypothesis and study the relative merits of changes in structure and shocks for reproducing the conquest of the Great Inflation and the Great Moderation.
Abstract Labor turnover is a commonly cited mechanism for the transmission of technology from multinational to domestic firms. Using a matched establishment-worker database from Brazil, I present evidence consistent with positive multinational wage spillovers through worker mobility. When workers leave multinationals and are rehired at domestic establishments, continuing-workers' wages increase. To my knowledge, this avenue for wage spillovers has not previously been explored. The paper also investigates where spillovers occur and how they are absorbed to demonstrate heterogeneous impacts. Higher-skilled former multinational workers are better able to transfer information, and higher-skilled incumbent domestic workers are better able to absorb information.
Abstract Earnings nonresponse in the Current Population Survey is roughly 30% in the monthly surveys and 20% in the March survey. If nonresponse is ignorable, unbiased estimates can be achieved by omitting nonrespondents. Little is known about whether CPS nonresponse is ignorable. Using sample frame measures to identify selection, we find clear-cut evidence among men but limited evidence among women for negative selection into response. Wage equation slope coefficients are affected little by selection, but because of intercept shifts, wages for men and, to a lesser extent, women are understated, as are gender gaps. Selection is least severe among household heads.
Abstract We study the consequences of poverty-alleviation programs for environmental degradation. We exploit the community-level eligibility discontinuity for a conditional cash transfer program in Mexico to identify the impacts of income increases on deforestation and use the program's initial randomized rollout to explore household responses. We find that additional income raises consumption of land-intensive goods and increases deforestation. The observed production response and deforestation increase are larger in communities with poor road infrastructure. This suggests that better access to markets disperses environmental harm and that the full effects of poverty alleviation on the environment can be observed only where poor infrastructure localizes them.
Abstract A large body of literature estimates private returns to R&D adopting the Griliches knowledge production framework, which ignores the potential impact of spillovers on consistent estimation. Using a panel of twelve manufacturing industries across ten OECD economies, we investigate whether ignoring spillovers leads to bias in the estimated private returns to R&D. We compare results from a common factor framework, which accounts for spillovers and other unobserved shocks, to those from a standard Griliches approach. Our findings confirm that conventional estimates conflate own-R&D and spillover effects, implying that spillovers cannot be ignored even when the interest lies exclusively in evaluating private returns to R&D.
Abstract This paper discusses the role of education in shaping the geographical breadth of knowledge spillovers. Data pertaining to 6,051 European inventions reveal that inventors with a high level of education, such as a university or doctoral degree, rely more on external spillovers regardless of the geographical location of their sources. Controlling for this effect, they also access geographically wider knowledge spillovers. This result holds after controlling for alternative explanations, such as the inventors' network and the site where the research is performed. By contributing to individual openness, education thus provides a means to break through geographical barriers to attain knowledge diffusion.
Abstract This paper uses wealth changes driven by housing market variation to estimate the effect of family resources on fertility decisions. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we show that a $100,000 increase in housing wealth among home owners causes a 16% to 18% increase in the probability of having a child. There is no evidence of an effect of MSA-level housing price growth on the fertility of renters, however. We also present evidence that housing wealth growth increases total fertility and that the responsiveness of fertility to housing wealth has increased over time, commensurate with the recent housing boom.
Abstract The production of high-quality goods is often viewed as a precondition for export success and economic development. We provide the first evidence that countries' import tariffs affect the rate at which they upgrade product quality. Our analysis uses highly disaggregated data covering exports from 56 countries across 10,000 products to the United States using a novel approach to measure quality. As predicted by distance-to-the-frontier models, we find that lower tariffs are associated with quality upgrading for products close to the world quality frontier, whereas lower tariffs discourage quality upgrading for products distant from the frontier.
Abstract This paper investigates if the R&D of an industry changes due to the R&D of an industry's suppliers and/or demanders. Using an annual industry-level panel of manufacturing R&D in the United States, I find that regressing the R&D of an industry on the lagged values of another industry's R&D suggests R&D comovement between industries with a strong supplier-demander relationship. Variance decompositions indicate that the R&D of an industry has high forecasting power over the R&D variance of another industry if the two industries share a strong supplier-demander relationship.
Abstract How a cost shock is passed through to final consumer prices may relate to nominal price stickiness and rigidities, the existence of nonadjustable cost components, strategic markup adjustments, or other contract terms along the supply distribution chain. This paper presents a simple framework to assess the potential role of nonlinear pricing contracts and vertical restraints, such as resale price maintenance or wholesale price discrimination in the supply chain, in explaining the degree of pass-through from upstream cost shocks in the ground coffee category to downstream retail prices. We find that resale price maintenance increases pass-through rate.
Abstract We conduct an empirical study of the impact of consumer price search on the shifting of cigarette excise taxes to consumer prices. We use novel data on the prices that smokers report paying and document substantial price dispersion. We find that cigarette taxes are shifted at lower rates to carton buyers and, especially, smokers who buy cartons of cigarettes in a state other than their state of residence. We also find evidence that taxes are shifted at somewhat lower rates to the prices paid by heavier smokers and at somewhat higher rates to the prices paid by smokers of light cigarettes.
Abstract We provide a set of comparable estimates for the rates of inflow to and outflow from unemployment using publicly available data for fourteen OECD economies. Using a novel decomposition that allows for deviations of unemployment from its flow steady state, we find that fluctuations in both inflow and outflow rates contribute substantially to unemployment variation within countries. Anglo-Saxon economies exhibit approximately a 15:85 inflow-outflow split to unemployment variation, while continental European and Nordic countries display closer to a 45:55 split. In all economies, increases in inflows lead increases in unemployment, whereas outflows lag a ramp-up in unemployment.
Abstract Countercyclical variation in individuals' idiosyncratic labor income risk could generate substantial welfare costs. Following past research, we infer income volatility—the variance of permanent income shocks, a standard proxy for income risk—from the rate at which cross-sectional variances of income rise over the life cycle for a given cohort. Our novelty lies in exploiting cross-state variation in state economic conditions or state sensitivity to national economic conditions. We find that income volatility is higher in good state times than bad; during good national times, we find volatility is higher in states that are more sensitive to national conditions.
Abstract Using data on subprime mortgages from ten cities, I examine geographic variation in the effects of prepayment penalties, balloon loans, and reduced documentation on the probabilities of foreclosure and prepayment. Results indicate that across cities, reduced documentation is consistently related to higher probabilities of foreclosure, and prepayment penalties are consistently related to lower probabilities of prepayment. Prepayment penalties and balloon loans are more sporadically associated with foreclosures, and reduced documentation and balloon loans are more sporadically associated with prepayments. These results are robust to controls for several state antipredatory lending law provisions, whose effects are also tested.
Abstract Using Benford's law, we find evidence supporting the hypothesis that countries at times misreport their economic data strategically. We group countries with similar economic conditions and find that for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes, high negative net foreign asset positions, negative current account balances, or more vulnerable to capital flow reversals, we reject the first-digit law for the balance-of-payments data. This corroborates the intuition of a simple economic model. The main results do not seem to be driven by countries in sub-Saharan Africa or those with low institutional quality ratings.
Abstract This paper analyzes the long-term economic determinants of the demographic transition using a large panel of countries since 1870. A simple theoretical framework accounts for the possibly nonmonotonic variations of fertility in the course of economic development. As predicted by unified growth theory, I find that primary schooling, rather than income or health-related variables, is the most robust determinant of the fertility transition. As regards the health transition, both education and income are significant determinants of mortality rates, but education alone accounts for the bulk of their time variation over the twentieth century. Thus, education can be viewed as the main long-term determinant of the demographic transition.
Abstract This paper examines the implications of a binary action, binary outcome decision problem for estimating risk. We use data on the invasiveness of biological imports to develop the first comparison of two classical methods—maximum likelihood and Bayesian—against a third, the recently developed maximum utility (MU) approach. MU estimation uniquely takes advantage of the structure of the decision problem, which depends on a local rather than global fit to the model. Extending methods to account for an endogenously stratified sample, we show that the MU approach is less sensitive to specification error and can offer significant economic gains under model uncertainty.
Abstract This paper proposes an iterative procedure to discriminate between structural breaks in the coefficients and the disturbance covariance matrix of a system of equations, with recursive procedures then identifying individual coefficient shifts and separating volatility from correlation breaks. Structural breaks in short-term cross-country inflation relations are then examined for major G-7 economies and within the euro area. There is evidence that the euro area leads inflation in North America, while changing short-term interactions apply within the euro area. Covariability generally increases from the late 1990s, while euro-area countries move from essentially idiosyncratic contemporaneous variation to comovement in the 1980s.
Abstract This paper investigates the sensitivity of the intergenerational transmission of health to changes in the socioeconomic and public health environment into which children are born using individual survey data on 2.24 million children born to 600,000 mothers during the period 1970 to 2000 in 38 developing countries merged by country and cohort with macroeconomic data. We find that children are more likely to bear the penalty exerted by poor maternal health if they are conceived or born in adverse socioeconomic conditions. Equivalently, shocks to the child's birth environment are more damaging of children born to women with weaker health at birth.
Abstract Endogeneity between health and wealth presents a challenge for estimating causal effects of health shocks. Using a quasi-experimental design, comprising exogenous shocks sustained as bus accident injuries in India, with controls drawn from travelers on the same bus routes one year later, I present new evidence of causal effects on consumption and debt. Using primary household survey data, I find that households faced with shock-related expenditures are able to smooth consumption on food, housing, and festivals, with small reductions in educational spending. Debt was the principal mitigating mechanism households used, leading to significantly larger levels of indebtedness.
Abstract This paper presents evidence on the effects of access to domestic and international markets on per capita consumption of households using data from rural China. The econometric analysis uses alternative identification schemes to address the potential endogeneity of access to markets. We use straight-line distances to coastline and navigable river, along with the topography of the intervening counties, as sources of exogeneous variations. We also use identification through heteroskedasticity, which does not rely on standard exclusion restrictions. The results from alternative identification schemes show that better access to both domestic and international markets has positive effects on per capita consumption, the domestic market effect is significantly larger in magnitude, and there is complementarity between the access to domestic and international markets.
Abstract The migration of young Chinese scientists to undertake graduate studies in U.S. universities is arguably one of the most important recent episodes of skilled migration. Using a new data set covering around 16,000 Ph.D. graduates in 161 U.S. chemistry departments, we show that Chinese students have a scientific output during their thesis that is significantly higher than other students. In fact, conditional on acceptance into the same programs, Chinese students perform about as well as the awardees of the NSF doctoral fellowship program. These results shed new light on the benefits of student migration on scientific productivity of destination countries.
Abstract We investigate the 2008–2009 trade collapse using microdata from a small open economy, Belgium. Belgian exports and imports mostly fell because of smaller quantities sold and unit prices charged rather than fewer firms, trading partners, and products being involved in trade. Our difference-in-difference results point to a fall in the demand for tradables as the main driver of the collapse. Finance and involvement in global value chains played a minor role. Firm-level exports-to-turnover and imports-to-intermediates ratios reveal a comparable collapse of domestic and cross-border operations. Overall, our results reject a crisis of cross-border trade per se.
Abstract Season of birth is associated with later outcomes; what drives this association remains unclear. We consider a new explanation: variation in maternal characteristics. We document large changes in maternal characteristics for births throughout the year; winter births are disproportionally realized by teenagers and the unmarried. Family background controls explain nearly half of season-of-birth's relation to adult outcomes. Seasonality in maternal characteristics is driven by women trying to conceive; we find no seasonality among unwanted births. Prior seasonality-in-fertility research focuses on conditions at conception; here, expected conditions at birth drive variation in maternal characteristics, while conditions at conception are unimportant.
Abstract A key prediction of dynamic labor demand models is that firing restrictions attenuate firms' employment responses to economic fluctuations. We provide the first direct test of this prediction using data from India. We exploit the fact that rainfall fluctuations, through their effects on agricultural productivity, generate variation in local demand within districts over time. Consistent with the theory, we find that industrial employment is more sensitive to shocks where labor regulation is less restrictive. Our results are robust to controlling for endogenous firm placement and vary across factory size in a pattern consistent with institutional features of Indian labor law.
Abstract We present evidence that Washington State judges respond to political pressure by sentencing serious crimes more severely. Sentences are around 10% longer at the end of a judge's political cycle than at the beginning; judges' discretionary departures above the sentencing guidelines range increase by 50% across the electoral cycle, accounting for much of the greater severity. Robustness specifications, nonlinear models, and falsification exercises allow us to distinguish among explanations for increased sentencing severity at the end of judges' political cycles. Our findings inform debates over judicial elections, and highlight the interaction between judicial discretion and the influence of judicial elections.
Abstract This paper documents a systematic shift in the nature of innovation in information technology (IT) toward increasing dependence on software. Using a broad panel of U.S. and Japanese publicly listed IT firms in the period 1983 to 2004, we show that this change in the nature of IT innovation had differential effects on the performance of the IT industries in the United States and Japan, resulting in U.S. firms increasingly outperforming their Japanese counterparts, particularly in more software-intensive sectors. We provide suggestive evidence that human resource constraints played a role in preventing Japanese firms from adapting to the documented shift in IT innovation.
Abstract We revisit the relation between stock market volatility and macroeconomic activity using a new class of component models that distinguish short-run from long-run movements. We formulate models with the long-term component driven by inflation and industrial production growth that are in terms of pseudo out-of-sample prediction for horizons of one quarter at par or outperform more traditional time series volatility models at longer horizons. Hence, imputing economic fundamentals into volatility models pays off in terms of long-horizon forecasting. We also find that macroeconomic fundamentals play a significant role even at short horizons.
Abstract This paper reconciles the persistence of aggregate real exchange rates with the faster adjustment of international relative prices in microeconomic data. Error correction model estimates indicate that a different mix of shocks drives international price deviations at the microeconomic level and that dynamic adjustment works through arbitrage in the goods market rather than the foreign exchange market. When half-lives are estimated conditional on a common set of estimated macro shocks, we find that micro relative prices exhibit every bit as much persistence as aggregate real exchange rates. These results challenge theories of real exchange rate persistence based on sticky prices and heterogeneity across goods.
Abstract We present theory and evidence to suggest that, in the context of analyzing global poverty, the EKS approach to estimating purchasing power parities yields more appropriate international comparison of real incomes than the Geary-Khamis approach. Our analysis of the 1996 and 2005 International Comparison Project data confirms that the Geary-Khamis approach substantially overstates the relative incomes of the world's poorest nations, and this leads to misleading comparisons of poverty across regions and over time. The EKS index of real income is much closer to being a true index of economic welfare and is therefore preferred for assessment of global poverty.
Abstract How well does the theory of the firm explain the choice between intrafirm and arm's-length trade? This paper uses firm-level import data from France to look into this question. We find support for three key predictions of property rights theories of the multinational firm. Intrafirm imports are more likely in capital- and skill-intensive firms, in highly productive firms, and from countries with well-functioning judicial institutions. We bridge previous aggregate findings with our investigation by decomposing intrafirm imports into an extensive and intensive margin and uncover interesting patterns in the data that require further theoretical investigation.
Abstract We investigate to what extent worker heterogeneity explains the well-known wage and productivity exporter premiums, employing a matched employer-employee data set for Norwegian manufacturing. The wage premium falls by roughly 50% after controlling for observed and unobserved worker characteristics, while the total factor productivity premium falls by 25% to 40%, suggesting that sorting explains up to half of these premiums. Recent trade models emphasize the role of within-industry reallocation of labor in response to various shocks to the economy. Our findings suggest that aggregate productivity gains due to reallocation may be overstated if not controlling for sorting between firms and workers.
Abstract Analyzing data from a unique survey of managers of Chinese private firms, we investigate how family ties with firm heads affect managerial compensation and job assignment. We find that family managers earn higher salaries and receive more bonuses, hold higher positions, and are given more decision rights and job responsibilities than nonfamily managers in the same firm. However, family managers face weaker incentives than professional managers, as seen in the lower sensitivity of their bonuses to firm performance. Our findings are consistent with the predictions of a principal-agent model that incorporates family trust and endogenous job assignment decisions.
Abstract Most of the economic analyses of the overseas Chinese network focus on trade and investment flows at the country level. In this paper, we analyze the effects of the ethnic Chinese network at the firm level. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, we find that ethnic Chinese FDI firms in China in fact underperform nonethnic Chinese FDI firms. We also find that the performance of ethnic Chinese firms deteriorates over time. We present evidence consistent with the hypothesis that ethnic Chinese firms underinvest in those firm attributes that may contribute to long-term performance, such as human capital and technology. Our findings raise both empirical and normative implications of ethnic ties.
Abstract Using new data on citations to university patents and scientific publications, we study how geography affects university knowledge spillovers. Citations to patents decline sharply with distance and are strongly constrained by state borders. The effect of distance on citations to scientific publications is less sharp, and the state border effect on publications is significant only for lower-quality public universities. We show that the state border effect is heterogeneous and strongly influenced by university and state characteristics and policies. It is larger for universities that are public and that have strong local development policies, and in states with strong noncompete labor laws, greater reliance on in-state educated scientists, and lower rates of interstate scientific labor mobility. We confirm the impact of noncompete statutes by studying a policy reform in Michigan.
Abstract This paper provides an economic rationale for the practice of consanguineous marriages observed in parts of the developing world. In a model of incomplete marriage markets, dowries are viewed as ex ante transfers made from the bride's family to the groom's family when the promise of ex post gifts and bequests is not credible. Consanguineous unions join families between whom ex ante pledges are enforceable ex post. The model predicts a negative relationship between consanguinity and dowries and higher bequests in consanguineous unions. An empirical analysis based on data from Bangladesh delivers results consistent with the model.
Abstract This paper investigates whether breastfeeding affects 5- to 6-year old children's cognitive development using three U.S. longitudinal data sets. The results for the full samples roughly point to a dose-response effect of breastfeeding on children's cognitive outcomes, with breastfeeding six months or more associated with about one-tenth of a standard deviation increase in cognitive test scores. The breastfeeding effects do not appear to be due to differences in maternal employment, cognitive ability, or parenting skills. In contrast, within-sibling results show no statistically significant breastfeeding effect.
Abstract This paper presents genetic matching, a method of multivariate matching that uses an evolutionary search algorithm to determine the weight each covariate is given. Both propensity score matching and matching based on Mahalanobis distance are limiting cases of this method. The algorithm makes transparent certain issues that all matching methods must confront. We present simulation studies that show that the algorithm improves covariate balance and that it may reduce bias if the selection on observables assumption holds. We then present a reanalysis of a number of data sets in the LaLonde (1986) controversy.
Abstract Are structural reforms growth enhancing? Is the effectiveness of reforms constrained by a country's distance from the technology frontier or by its institutional environment? This paper takes a new and comprehensive look at these questions by employing a novel data set that includes several kinds of real (trade, agriculture, and networks) and financial (domestic finance, banking, securities, and capital account) reforms for an extensive list of developed and developing countries, going back to the early 1970s. First-pass evidence based on growth breaks analysis and on panel growth regressions suggests that on average, both real and financial sector reforms are positively associated with higher growth. However, on several occasions, botched reforms resulted in growth disasters. More important, the positive reform-growth relationship is shown to be highly heterogeneous and to be influenced by a country's constraints on the authority of the executive power and by its distance from the technology frontier. Finally, there is some evidence that crises, defined as severe growth downturns, are associated with subsequent reform upticks.
Abstract This paper investigates the extent of vengeful feelings and their determinants using data on more than 116,000 individuals from 66 countries. Country characteristics as well as personal attributes of the individuals influence vengeful feelings. The magnitude of vengeful feelings is greater for people in countries with low levels of education, low-income countries, and interrupted democracies. Personal education has an impact on vengeful feelings in lower-income countries. The results suggest that some puzzles about individual choice can best be explained by considering the interplay of personal and economic factors.
Abstract We use a transparent statistical methodology for data-driven case studies–the synthetic control method–to investigate the impact of economic liberalization on real GDP per capita in a worldwide sample of countries. Economic liberalization is measured by a widely used indicator that captures the scope of the market in the economy. The methodology compares the postliberalization GDP trajectory of treated economies with the trajectory of a combination of similar but untreated economies. We find that liberalizing the economy had a positive effect in most regions, but more recent liberalizations, in the 1990s and mainly in Africa, had no significant impact.
Abstract Agglomeration is a location pattern frequently observed in service industries such as hotels. This paper empirically examines whether agglomeration facilitates tacit collusion in the lodging industry using a quarterly data set of hotels in Texas. We jointly model a price and occupancy rate equation under a switching regression model to identify a collusive and noncollusive regime. The estimation results indicate that clustered hotels have a higher probability of being in the potential collusive regime than isolated properties in the same town. The identification of a collusive regime is also consistent with other factors considered to affect the sustainability of tacit collusion.
Abstract Using a unique conjoint data set drawn from 281 college students in Hong Kong, I estimate a random-coefficient discrete choice demand system for Microsoft Office from legal and various illegal sources. Counterfactual results show two things. First, most students would switch to Internet piracy even if the government eradicated street piracy. This explains why software piracy in Hong Kong remains well above 40% despite the government's successful measures to bring down street piracy. Second, the true gain from shutting off all sources of piracy is HK$48.6 (US$6) per person, only 15% of the Business Software Alliance's estimated cost of piracy.
Abstract This paper demonstrates how economic theory can be combined with state-of-the-art empirics to make quantitative statements about optimal policy. Using a large administrative data set for West Germany as well as nonparametric and semiparametric estimation techniques, I parameterize the model proposed by Pavoni and Violante (2005, 2007) for the optimal choice of different financial and activation measures for unemployed workers. The parameterized model is used to study the role of job search assistance in optimal welfare-to-work programs and assess the optimality of the West German policy in the period 2000 to 2002.
Abstract A new and extensive panel of outward nonresource and resource FDI is used to investigate the effect of natural resources on the different components of FDI. Our main findings are as follows. First, for countries which were not a resource producer before, a resource discovery causes nonresource FDI to fall 16% in the short run and by 68% in the long run. Second, for countries that were already a resource producer, a doubling of resource rents induces a 12.4% fall in nonresource FDI. Third, on average, the contraction in nonresource FDI outweighs the boom in resource FDI. Aggregate FDI falls by 4% if the resource bonanza is doubled. Finally, these negative effects on nonresource FDI are amplified through the positive spatial lags in nonresource FDI. We also find that resource FDI is vertical, whereas nonresource FDI is of the export-fragmentation variety. Our main findings are robust to different measures of resource reserves and the oil price and to allowing sample selection bias.
Abstract This paper examines the impact of regulatory reform on productivity growth and its components for Indian banks from 1992 to 2009. We estimate parametric and nonparametric efficiency frontiers, followed by Divisia and Malmquist indexes of total factor productivity, respectively. To account for technology heterogeneity among ownership types, we use a metafrontier approach. Results are consistent across methodologies and show sustained productivity growth, driven mainly by technological progress. Furthermore, results indicate that different ownership types react differently to changes in the operating environment. The position of foreign banks becomes increasingly dominant, and their production technology becomes the best practice in the industry.
Abstract Health expenditures as a share of GDP in the United States have more than tripled over the past half-century. A common conjecture is that this is a consequence of rising income. We investigate this hypothesis by instrumenting for local area income with time series variation in oil prices interacted with local oil reserves. This strategy enables us to capture both partial equilibrium and local general equilibrium effects of income on health expenditures. Our central income elasticity estimate is 0.7, with 1.1 as the upper end of the 95% confidence interval, which suggests that rising income is unlikely to be a major driver of the rising health expenditure share of GDP.
I investigate the importance of the match between teachers and schools for student achievement. I show that teacher effectiveness increases after a move to a different school and estimate teacher-school match effects. Match quality explains away a quarter of and has two-thirds the explanatory power of teacher quality. Match quality is negatively correlated with school switching, is unrelated to exit, and increases with experience. This paper provides the first estimates of worker-firm match quality using output data, as opposed to inferring productivity from wages or employment durations. The results suggest that workers seek high-quality matches for reasons other than higher pay.
Abstract This paper uses insights from behavioral economics to explain a particularly surprising borrowing phenomenon: one in six undergraduate students offered interest-free loans turns them down. Models of impulse control predict that students may optimally reject subsidized loans to avoid excessive consumption during school.  Using the National Postsecondary Student Aid Study, we investigate students' take-up decisions and identify a group of students for whom the loans create an especially tempting liquidity increase.  Students who would receive the loan in cash are significantly more likely to turn it down, suggesting that consumers choose to limit their liquidity in economically meaningful situations.
We study social interactions in the initiation of sex and other risky behaviors by best friend pairs in the Add Health panel. Focusing on friends with minimal experience at the baseline interview, we estimate bivariate ordered-choice models that include both peer effects and unobserved heterogeneity. We find significant peer effects in sexual initiation: the likelihood of initiating intercourse within a year increases by almost 5 percentage points (on an 11% base rate) if one's friend also initiates intercourse. Similar effects are present for smoking, marijuana use, and truancy. We find larger effects for females and important asymmetries in nonreciprocated friendships.
We measure unit value electricity prices using 2 million annual observations on U.S. manufacturing plants from 1963 to 2000. These prices display tremendous cross-sectional dispersion, 85–95% of which reflects differences by plant location and purchase quantity. Spatial differentials decline markedly until the late 1980s for large purchasers but rise over time for small purchasers. Unit value price gaps between larger and smaller purchasers are enormous, diminish through the late 1970s, and then stabilize at still-high levels. There are major differences across states in cost and regulatory factors that we relate to the changing structure of unit value prices.
Abstract I use a natural experiment of oil-price-driven remittance flows to poor, non-oil-producing Muslim countries to demonstrate that remittances deteriorate the quality of governance, especially in countries with weak democratic institutions. The results indicate that a 1 standard deviation increase in remittances raises corruption by 1.5 index points (on a 6-point scale), which is equivalent to a [dollar]600 decrease in per capita GDP. Concomitantly, remittances may enable governments to reduce their delivery of public services (for example, health care, school enrollment). The results suggest that political institutions may mediate the potentially beneficial socioeconomic effects of remittance inflows.
Abstract Rising house prices affect household spending  by either loosening a household's lifetime budget constraint (pure wealth effect) or the household's borrowing constraint so that consumption rises toward the  level implied by the consumption Euler equation (borrowing collateral effect).  The empirical findings in this paper are consistent with house price appreciation affecting household spending through the borrowing collateral channel and not the pure wealth effect channel.  The consumption of potentially borrowing constrained households increases between [dollar]0.06 and [dollar]0.18 per dollar increase in their housing equity, while the consumption of unconstrained households is little changed.
Abstract We provide empirical evidence that automobile manufacturers use cash incentives to offset how gasoline price fluctuations affect the expected fuel expenses of automobile buyers.  Regressions based on a database of incentives over 2003 to 2006 suggest that on average, manufacturers offset 40% of the change in relative fuel costs between vehicles due to gasoline price fluctuations.  The results highlight that  carbon taxes and emissions trading programs likely would generate substantial substitution within vehicle classes, and  studies that ignore manufacturer discounting likely underestimate consumer demand for fuel economy.  The results also have implications for the optimal design of feebate programs.
By raising commuting costs, an increase in gasoline prices should reduce the demand for housing in areas far from employment centers relative to locations closer to jobs. Using annual panel data on a large number of postal codes and municipalities from 1981 to 2008, we find that a 10% increase in gas prices leads to a 10% decrease in construction in locations with a long average commute relative to other locations but to no significant change in house prices. Thus, the supply response prevents the change in housing demand from capitalizing in house prices.
Abstract Over the past two decades, technological progress in the United States has been biased toward skilled labor. What does this imply for business cycles? We construct a quarterly skill premium from the CPS and use it to identify skill-biased technology shocks in a VAR with long-run zero and sign restrictions. Hours fall in response to skill-biased technology shocks, indicating that part of the technology-induced fall in hours is due to a compositional shift in labor demand. Investment-specific technology shocks reduce the skill premium, indicating that capital and skill are not complementary in aggregate production.
Abstract Usury laws cap the interest rates that lenders can charge. Using data from Prosper.com, an online lending marketplace, I investigate the effects of these laws. The key to my empirical strategy is that there was initially substantial variability in states' interest rate caps, ranging from 6% to 36%. A behind-the-scenes change in loan origination, however, suddenly increased the cap to 36%. The main findings of the study are that higher interest rate caps increase the probability that a loan will be funded, especially if the borrower was previously just "outside the money." I do not find, however, changes in loan amounts and default probability. The interest rate paid rises slightly, probably because online lending is substantially, yet imperfectly, integrated with the general credit market.
Abstract Occupational shares of various ethnic groups have grew tremendously in regional U.S. labor markets from 1980 to 2000. Using U.S. Census data, we examine the extent to which this growth is attributed to network effects by studying the relationship between the occupational choice of recently arrived immigrants with those of established immigrants from the same country, We find strong evidence of network effects. First, new arrivals are choosing the same occupations as their compatriots, a decision that is operating at the regional level. Second, individuals who choose the most common occupation of their compatriots enjoy a large and positive earnings effect.
This paper focuses on empirical connections between crime and immigration, studying two large waves of recent U.K. immigration (the late 1990s/early 2000s asylum seekers and the post-2004 inflow from EU accession countries). The first wave led to a modest but significant rise in property crime, while the second wave had a small negative impact. There was no effect on violent crime; arrest rates were not different, and changes in crime cannot be ascribed to crimes against immigrants. The findings are consistent with the notion that differences in labor market opportunities of different migrant groups shape their potential impact on crime.
The income distribution in many developed countries widened dramatically from 1970 to 2000. Some scholars argue that income inequality contributes to a host of social ills by undermining voters' willingness to support public expenditures. In contrast, we find that growing income inequality is associated with an expansion in government revenues and expenditures on a wide range of services in U.S. municipalities and school districts. Results are robust to a number of model specifications, including instrumental variables that address the endogeneity of the local income distribution. Our results are inconsistent with models predicting that heterogeneous societies provide lower levels of public goods.
We use a unique proprietary panel data set from a large hotel company to study how organizational form affects hotel pricing and performance. Aggregate data patterns suggest sizable performance differences between franchised and company-operated hotels. However, after controlling for other factors, we find that if significant at all, such differences are economically small. Moreover, once we endogenize the choice of organizational form, the differences become insignificant. We conclude that the company chooses which hotels to franchise and operate corporately such that, conditional on hotel and market characteristics, it obtains consistent outcomes across organizational forms.
Abstract This paper estimates the impact  of competition policy on total factor productivity   growth for 22 industries in twelve OECD countries over 1995 to 2005. We find a positive and significant effect of competition policy as measured by created indexes. We provide results based on instrumental variables estimators and heterogeneous effects to support the causal nature of the established link. The effect is particularly strong for specific aspects of competition policy related to its institutional setup and antitrust activities. It is also strengthened by good legal systems, suggesting complementarities between competition policy and the efficiency of law enforcement institutions.
Using data sets on wage agreements at both industry and firm levels in France, we document stylized facts on wage stickiness. The average duration of wages is a little less than one year, and 10% of wages are modified each month by a wage agreement. The frequency of wage change agreements is staggered over the year, but the frequency of effective wage changes is seasonal. The national minimum wage has a significant impact on the probability and the seasonality of wage changes. Negotiated wage increases are correlated with inflation, minimum wage increases, and firm profitability.
Abstract Using survey-based measures of future U.S. economic activity from the Livingston Survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we study how changes in expectations and their interaction with monetary policy contribute to fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates. We find that changes in expected future economic activity are a quantitatively important driver of economic fluctuations: a perception that good times are ahead typically leads to a significant rise in current measures of economic activity and inflation. We also find that the short-term interest rate rises in response to expectations of good times as monetary policy tightens.
We examine the issue of market foreclosure by airline partnerships with antitrust immunity. Overlapping data on frequency of service and passenger volumes on nonstop transatlantic routes with information on the dynamics of airline partnerships, we find evidence consistent with the airlines operating under antitrust immunity refusing to accept connecting passengers from the outside carriers at respective hub airports. Following the antitrust immunity, airlines outside the partnership reduce their traffic to the partner airlines' hub airports by 4.1% to 11.5%. We suggest regulators should take possible market foreclosure effects into account when assessing the competitive effects of antitrust immunity for airline alliances.
This paper examines the role of individual risk attitudes in the decision to adopt a new form of agricultural biotechnology in China. I conducted a survey and a field experiment to elicit the risk preferences of Chinese farmers, who faced the decision of whether to adopt genetically modified Bt cotton a decade ago. In my analysis, I expand the measurement of risk preferences beyond expected utility theory to incorporate prospect theory. I find that farmers who are more risk averse or more loss averse adopt Bt cotton later. Farmers who overweight small probabilities adopt Bt cotton earlier.
Abstract Skill content varies enormously across industries and over time. This paper shows that import competition can explain a significant portion of the variation in various skill measures across manufacturing industries. Industries that face more intense import competition employ more nonroutine skill sets, including cognitive, interpersonal, and manual skills, and fewer cognitive routine skills. In addition, we find that the impact of import competition on skills is not driven by imports from low-wage countries or from China. A number of robustness checks also suggest that our results are unlikely to be driven by econometric problems.
This paper empirically investigates why, between 800 and 1800, the urban center of gravity moved from the Islamic world to Europe. Using a large new city-specific data set covering Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa, we unravel the role of geography and institutions in determining long-run city development in the two regions. We find that the main reasons for the Islamic world's stagnation and Europe's long-term success are specific to each region: any significant positive interaction between cities in the two regions hampered by their different main religious orientation. Together, the long-term consequences of a different choice of main transport mode (camel versus ship) and the development of forms of local participative government in Europe that made cities less dependent on the state explain why Europe's urban development eventually outpaced that in the Islamic world.
Recent literature presents evidence that men are more competitively inclined than women. Since top-level careers usually require competitiveness, competitiveness differences provide an explanation for gender gaps in wages and differences in occupational choice. A natural question is whether women are born less competitive or whether they become so through the process of socialization. To pinpoint when in the socialization process the difference arises, we compare the competitiveness of children in matrilineal and patriarchal societies. We find that while there is no difference at any age in the matrilineal society, girls become less competitive around puberty in the patriarchal society.
We examine whether the magnitude of an anticipated income change affects consumption smoothing (the magnitude hypothesis). Although this hypothesis has been discussed for fifty years, we are one of the first to provide formal statistical evidence to support it. We consider the natural experiment of an individual's final mortgage payment, an anticipated income change, and examine how it affects credit card expenditure. We can identify causality because the dates of final mortgage payments across individuals are uncorrelated with unobserved determinants of consumption. Using an event study methodology, we provide evidence to support the magnitude hypothesis.
We propose a new methodology that does not assume a prior specification of the statistical properties of the measurement errors and treats all sources as noisy measures of some underlying true value. The unobservable true value can be represented as a weighted average of all available measures, using weights that must be specified a priori unless there has been a truth audit. The Census Bureau's Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) survey jobs are linked to Social Security Administration earnings data, creating two potential annual earnings observations. The reliability statistics for both sources are quite similar except for cases where the SIPP used imputations for some missing monthly earnings reports.
Although both economists and psychometricians typically treat them as interval scales, test scores are reported using ordinal scales. Using the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study (ECLS-K) and the Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (CNLSY), we examine how order-preserving scale transformations affect the evolution of the black-white reading test score gap from kindergarten entry through third grade. Plausible transformations reverse the growth of the gap in the CNLSY and greatly reduce it in the ECLS-K during the early school years. All growth from entry through first grade and a nontrivial proportion from first to third grade probably reflects scaling decisions.
We assess the importance of interpersonal income comparisons using data on suicide deaths. We examine whether suicide risk is related to others' income, holding own income and other individual and environmental factors fixed. We estimate models of the suicide hazard using two independent data sets: the National Longitudinal Mortality Study and the National Center for Health Statistics' Multiple Cause of Death Files combined with the 5% Public Use Micro Sample of the 1990 decennial census. Results from both data sources show that, controlling for own income and individual characteristics, individual suicide risk rises with others' income.
Employing a large number of financial indicators, we use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to forecast real-time measures of economic activity. The indicators include credit spreads based on portfolios, constructed directly from the secondary market prices of outstanding bonds, sorted by maturity and credit risk. Relative to an autoregressive benchmark, BMA yields consistent improvements in the prediction of the cyclically sensitive measures of economic activity at horizons from the current quarter out to four quarters hence. The gains in forecast accuracy are statistically significant and economically important and owe almost exclusively to the inclusion of credit spreads in the set of predictors.
Since the introduction of the one-child policy in China in 1979, many more boys than girls have been born, foreshadowing a sizable bride shortage. What do young men unable to find wives do? This paper focuses on criminality, an asocial activity that has seen a marked rise since the mid-1990s. Exploiting province-year level variation, we find an elasticity of crime with respect to the sex ratio of 16- to 25-year-olds of 3.4, suggesting that male sex ratios can account for one-seventh of the rise in crime. We hypothesize that adverse marriage market conditions drive this association.
A strong positive monotonic relationship between wage inequality and city size developed between 1979 and 2007 in the United States. After accounting for differences in skill composition across cities of different sizes, we find that at least 23% of the nationwide increase in the variance of log hourly wages is explained by the more rapid growth in wage inequality in larger locations than in smaller locations. This influence occurred throughout the wage distribution, was most prevalent during the 1990s, and was mostly driven by more rapid growth in within-skill-group inequality in larger cities.
We examine the average causal impact of catastrophic natural disasters on economic growth by combining information from comparative case studies. For each country affected by a large disaster, we compute the counterfactual by constructing synthetic controls. We find that only extremely large disasters have a negative effect on output in both the short and the long runs. However, we also show that this results from two events where radical political revolutions followed the disasters. Once we control for these political changes, even extremely large disasters do not display any significant effect on economic growth.
Using unique data on mutual fund portfolios with different investment scopes, we study the extent of international diversification. Mutual funds invest in a surprisingly limited number of stocks—about 100. The number of holdings from a given region declines as the investment scope broadens. Moreover, unexploited gains exist from international diversification. Funds that invest globally could achieve better risk-adjusted returns by adding stocks held by more specialized funds within the same family. These findings are not driven by different sectoral allocations, lack of information or instruments, transaction costs, or different tail risks. Instead, organizational factors might play an important role.
This paper evaluates the efficacy of a structural model of oligopoly used for merger review. Using premerger data, we estimate several demand systems and use a static Bertrand model to simulate the price effects of two mergers. Using pre- and postmerger data, we directly estimate the price effects. The direct estimates imply that one merger resulted in moderate price increases, while the second left prices essentially unchanged. While some simulations are similar to the directly estimated price effects, overall simulations overstate the price effects in one case and understate them in the other. Explanations for the discrepancies are explored.
When individual petroleum-producing firms make their exploration and development investment timing decisions, positive information externalities and negative extraction externalities may lead them to interact strategically with their neighbors. This paper examines whether these inefficient strategic interactions take place by estimating a structural econometric model of the firms' multi-stage investment timing game. Results show that firms interact strategically on small tracts but not on large tracts. For small tracts, having a neighboring tract explored reduces real profits by about $26 million, while having a neighboring tract developed raises real profits by about $3.5 million.
We use fiscal data on 2,468 oil extraction agreements in 38 countries to study tax contracts between resource-rich countries and independent oil companies. We analyze why expropriations occur and what determines the degree of oil price exposure of host countries. With asymmetric information about a country's expropriation cost, even optimal contracts feature expropriations. Near linearity in the oil price of real-world hydrocarbon contracts also helps to explain expropriations. We show theoretically and verify empirically that oil price insurance provided by tax contracts is increasing in a country's cost of expropriation and decreasing in its production expertise. The timing of actual expropriations is consistent with our model.
Standard economic theory predicts that if property rights to pollute are clearly established, equilibrium outcomes in an efficient emissions permit market will be independent of how the emissions permits are initially distributed. This so-called independence property has important implications for policy design and implementation. Past studies document a strong positive correlation between the initial permit allocation and firm-level emissions, raising concerns that the independence property is failing to hold in real-world settings. We exploit the random assignment of firms to different permit allocation cycles in Southern California's RECLAIM program in order to test the independence of permit allocation and emissions. Our results lend empirical support to the independence hypothesis.
I reexamine the inverted-U relationship between competition and innovation (modeled and tested by Aghion et al. (2005)) by using data from publicly traded manufacturing firms in the United States. I control for the possible endogeneity of competition by using a trade-weighted average of industry exchange rates as an instrument. I find a mildly negative relationship between competition (as measured by the inverse of markups) and innovation (as measured by citation-weighted patents). The negative relationship is robust to many alternative assumptions and specifications. To reconcile the mildly negative relationship in the U.S. data with the inverted-U relationship that Aghion et al. (2005) find in the U.K. data, I modify their theoretical model and show that the modified model can explain both negative and inverted-U relationships. The key theoretical assumption is that the U.K. manufacturing industries are technologically more neck-and-neck than their counterparts in the United States. I find support for this assumption in the data. The different empirical results between the two countries may also arise because of differences in data and samples.
According to the Washington Consensus, developing countries' growth would benefit from reductions in barriers to trade. However, the empirical basis for judging trade reforms is weak. Econometrics are mostly ad hoc, results are typically not judged against models, policies are poorly measured, and most studies are based on pre-1990 experience. We address these concerns by employing a model with capital and intermediate goods, compiling new disaggregated tariff measures, and employing treatment and control regression analysis with differences-in-differences. We find that a specific treatment, liberalizing tariffs on imported capital and intermediate goods, led to faster growth, consistent with the model.
We study the effectiveness of nonexperimental strategies in adjusting for comparison group differences when using data from several programs, each implemented at a different location, to compare their effect if implemented at alternative locations. First, we adjust for individual characteristics differences simultaneously across all groups using unconfoundedness-based and conditional difference-in-difference methods for multiple treatments. Second, we adjust for differences in local economic conditions and stress their role after program participation. Our results show that it is critical to have sufficient overlap across locations in both dimensions and illustrate the difficulty of adjusting for local economic conditions that differ greatly across locations.
The literature documents that charitable giving is responsive to tax subsidies but often ignores the spillover effects of such policies. This paper investigates the spillover effects of charitable subsidies on religious participation using individual-level panel data. The results show that religious giving and participation are complements. The implied cross-price elasticity of religious participation with respect to the after-tax price of giving is −0.27. Furthermore, a 1% increase in the amount of religious contributions is associated with a 0.4% increase in religious attendance. These results are robust under several different specifications and highlight the positive externalities created by charitable subsidies.
Using weekly spot and future commodity prices in Chicago and New York, we construct expected transportation rates for grain between these two cities, expected inventory levels in New York, and realized errors in the expectations of such variables. We incorporate these exogenous commodity market dynamics into Porter's (1983) structural modeling of the Joint Executive Committee Railroad Cartel. As in Porter, we model marginal cost as a parametric function of (instrumented) output, among other factors. Unlike Porter, we model pricing over marginal cost as a nonparametric function of a set of variables, which include expectations of deterministic demand cycles and cartel stability. We estimate the pricing and demand equation simultaneously and semiparametrically. Our estimated weekly markups during periods of cartel stability are shown to reflect optimal collusive pricing over deterministic business cycles, as modeled in Haltiwanger and Harrington (1991). Periods of cartel instability are proven to be triggered by realized mistakes in expectations of New York grain prices.
We investigate how the regional institutional environment—in particular, the political environment—affects Russian new firm entry across regions, industries, firm size classes, and time. We find that entry rates in Russia are explained by natural entry rates and the institutional environment. Industries that are characterized by low entry barriers in developed market economies are found to have lower entry rates in regions subject to greater political fluidity, as in the case of gubernatorial change. We also find that higher levels of political fluidity and democracy increase relative entry rates for small-sized firms but reduce them for medium-sized or large ones.
We identify the impact of intermediate goods markets imperfections on productivity downstream. Our empirical specification is based on a model of multifactor productivity (MFP) growth in which the effects of upstream competition can vary with distance to frontier. This model is estimated on a panel of fifteen OECD countries and twenty industries over 1985 to 2007. Competitive pressures are proxied with industry product market regulation data. We find evidence that anticompetitive upstream regulations have significantly curbed MFP growth over the past fifteen years, and more strongly so for observations that are close to the productivity frontier.
This paper addresses normative exploitation of common renewable resources with changes in technology and technical, allocative, and scale efficiency that exacerbate the commons problem and externality. Their impact depends on the rate and nature of change, investment, and state of property rights. An augmented fundamental equation of renewable resources with a modified marginal stock effect and a new marginal technology effect account for changes in disembodied and embodied technology and technical efficiency. Neglecting these changes generates misleading policy advice and dynamic inefficiency with overaccumulation of physical and natural capital and sizable foregone rents. An empirical application illustrates.
This paper uses multilevel factor models to characterize within- and between-block variations as well as idiosyncratic noise in large dynamic panels. Block-level shocks are distinguished from genuinely common shocks, and the estimated block-level factors are easy to interpret. The framework achieves dimension reduction and yet explicitly allows for heterogeneity between blocks. The model is estimated using an MCMC algorithm that takes into account the hierarchical structure of the factors. The importance of block-level variations is illustrated in a four-level model estimated on a panel of 445 series related to different categories of real activity in the United States.
This paper presents an analysis of mortgage delinquency between 2004 and 2008 using a loan-level data set from a major national mortgage bank. Our analysis highlights two problems underlying the mortgage crisis: a reliance on mortgage brokers who tend to originate lower-quality loans and a prevalence of low-documentation loans—known in the industry as “liar's loans”—that result in borrower information falsification. While over three-quarters of the difference in delinquency rates between bank and broker channels can be attributed to observable loan and borrower characteristics, the delinquency difference between full- and low-documentation mortgages is due to unobservable heterogeneity, about half of it potentially due to income falsification.
A large literature shows that the self-employed underreport their income to tax authorities. In this paper, we quantify the extent to which the self-employed also systematically underreport their income in U.S. household surveys. We use the Engel curve describing the relationship between income and expenditures of wage and salary workers to infer the actual income, and thus the reporting gap, of the self-employed based on their reported expenditures. On average, the self-employed underreport their income by about 25%. We show that failing to account for such income underreporting leads to biased conclusions in a variety of settings.
We document the numerical challenges we experienced estimating random-coefficient demand models as in Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) using two well-known data sets and a thorough optimization design. The optimization algorithms  often converge at points where the first- and second-order  optimality conditions fail. There are also cases of convergence at  local optima. On convergence, the variation in the values of the parameter estimates translates into variation in the models'  economic predictions. Price elasticities and changes in consumer and  producer welfare following hypothetical merger exercises vary at  least by a factor of 2 and up to a factor of 5.
We test the hypothesis that information and communication technologies (ICT) polarize labor markets by increasing demand for the highly educated at the expense of the middle educated, with little effect on low-educated workers. Using data on the United States, Japan, and nine European countries from 1980 to 2004, we find that industries with faster ICT growth shifted demand from middle-educated workers to highly educated workers, consistent with ICT-based polarization. Trade openness is also associated with polarization, but this is not robust to controlling for R&D. Technologies account for up to a quarter of the growth in demand for highly educated workers.
This paper examines the selection of Mexican migrants to the United States using novel data with rich premigration characteristics that include permanent migrants, return migrants, and migrating households. Results indicate that Mexican migrants are more likely to be young, male, and from rural areas compared to nonmigrants, but they are similar to nonmigrants in cognitive ability and health. Migrants are selected from the middle of the education distribution. Male Mexican migrants are negatively selected on earnings, and this result is largely explained by differential returns to labor market skill between the United States and Mexico rather than proxies for differential costs of migration.
We investigate long-run effects of World War II on socioeconomic status and health of older individuals in Europe. We analyze data from SHARELIFE, a retrospective survey conducted as part of SHARE in Europe in 2009. SHARELIFE provides detailed data on events in childhood during and after the war for over 20,000 individuals in thirteen European countries. We construct several measures of war exposure: experience of dispossession, persecution, combat in local areas, and hunger periods. Exposure to war and, more important, to individual-level shocks caused by the war significantly predicts economic and health outcomes at older ages.
A model of racial discrimination provides testable implications for two features of statistical discriminators: differential treatment of signals by race and heterogeneous experience that shapes perception. We construct an experiment in the U.S. rental apartment market that distinguishes statistical discrimination from taste-based discrimination. Responses from over 14,000 rental inquiries with varying applicant quality show that landlords treat identical information from applicants with African American– and white-sounding names differently. This differential treatment varies by neighborhood racial composition and signal type in a manner consistent with statistical discrimination and in contrast to patterns predicted by a model of taste-based discrimination.
The theoretical effects of labor regulations, such as employment protection legislation (EPL), on innovation is ambiguous. EPL increases job security, and the greater enforceability of job contracts may increase worker investment in innovative activity. But EPL increases firms' adjustment costs, which may lead to underinvestment in activities that are likely to require adjustment, including technologically advanced innovation. In this paper, we find empirical evidence that these effects are at work—in particular, a higher share of multinational enterprise innovative activity in countries with high EPL is technologically advanced.
Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we document that controlling for observable characteristics, household investors' likelihood of entering the stock market within the ensuing five years is about 20%  to 30% higher if their parents or children had entered the stock market during the previous five years. By eliminating competing hypotheses such as preference similarity and herding, we argue that these findings highlight the significance of information sharing regarding household financial  decisions.
We investigate the effect of competition on price dispersion in the airline industry. Using panel data from 1993 to 2008, we find a nonmonotonic effect of competition on price dispersion. An increase in competition is associated with greater price dispersion in concentrated markets but with less price dispersion in competitive markets—an inverse-U relationship. Our empirical findings are consistent with an oligopolistic second-degree price discrimination model and encompass contradictory findings in the literature.
We estimate the local spillovers from research university activity in a sample of urban counties. Our approach uses the interaction between university endowment values and stock market shocks over time for identification. We find statistically significant local spillover effects from university activity. The effects are significantly larger when local universities are more research intensive or local firms are technologically close to universities. Our results suggest that the longer-term effects that universities have on their local economies may grow over time as the composition of local industries adjusts to take advantage of the heterogeneous knowledge spillovers we identify.
Health insurance affects the rate at which individuals visit hospitals and emergency departments (EDs). We identify the causal effect of losing health insurance using a regression discontinuity design. We compare individuals just before and after their twenty third birthday, which insurers have used as a cutoff after which students are no longer eligible for their parents' health insurance: 1.5% of young adults lose their health insurance upon turning 23, and this transition leads to a 1.6% decrease in ED visits and a 0.8% decrease in hospital stays. We discuss why these estimates are larger than those observed among teenage populations.
This paper explores the empirical content of the weak axiom of revealed preference (WARP) for repeated cross-sections. In a heterogeneous population, the fraction of consumers who violate WARP is not point identified but can be bounded. These bounds, as well as some nonparametric refinements, correspond to intuitive behavioral assumptions if there are two goods. With three or more goods, such intuitions break down, and plausible assumptions can have counterintuitive implications. We also provide estimators and confidence regions. The empirical application reveals that in the British Family Expenditure Survey, upper bounds are frequently positive but lower bounds are not significantly so.
We use the unique regulatory environment of the pharmaceutical industry to examine how potential competition affects generic drug pricing. Our identification strategy exploits a provision of the Hatch-Waxman Act that awards 180 days of marketing exclusivity to the first valid generic drug applicant against the holder of a branded drug patent. In smaller drug markets, we find that price falls in response to an increase in potential competition. We also find that few manufacturers enter these markets, indicating this price reduction is an effective deterrent. In contrast, we find that generic incumbents accommodate entry in larger drug markets.
Seasonal migration programs are widely used around the world, yet there is little evidence as to their development impacts. A multiyear prospective evaluation of New Zealand's Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) seasonal worker program allows us to measure the impact of participating in this program on households in Tonga and Vanuatu. Using a propensity-score prescreened difference-in-differences analysis based on surveys fielded before, during, and after participation, we find that the RSE has indeed had positive development impacts that dwarf those of other popular development interventions. It has increased income, consumption, and savings of households; durable goods ownership; and subjective standard of living. The results also suggest that child schooling improved in Tonga.
We investigate the impacts of providing low-income Chilean adolescents with information about how to finance higher education and ask whether providing parents with the same information magnifies the effects on schooling outcomes. We randomly assigned eighth graders and some parents to receive information about aid for higher education. Exposure to information raised college preparatory high school enrollment, primary school attendance, and financial aid knowledge, with gains concentrated among medium‐ and high‐grade students. Parental exposure to information did not significantly magnify these effects. Our results demonstrate that access to relevant information about financial aid affects important schooling choices long before tertiary education begins.
We test for an effect of Arizona's 2007 Legal Arizona Workers Act (LAWA) on the proportion of the state's population characterized as noncitizen Hispanic. We use the synthetic control method to select a group of states against which Arizona's population trends can be compared. We document a notable and statistically significant reduction in the proportion of the Hispanic noncitizen population in Arizona. The decline observed matches the timing of LAWA's implementation, deviates from the time series for the synthetic control group, and stands out relative to the distribution of placebo estimates for other states in the nation.
The causes of the Protestant Reformation have long been debated. This paper seeks to revive and econometrically test the theory that the spread of the Reformation is linked to the spread of the printing press. I test this theory by analyzing data on the spread of the press and the Reformation at the city level. An econometric analysis that instruments for omitted variable bias with a city's distance from Mainz, the birthplace of printing, suggests that cities with at least one printing press by 1500 were at minimum 29 percentage points more likely to be Protestant by 1600.
I examine the response of husbands' and wives' earnings to a tax reform in which husbands' and wives' tax rates changed independently, allowing me to examine the effect of both spouses' incentives on each spouse's behavior. I analyze the large Swedish tax reform of 1990–1991 and find that in response to a compensated fall in one spouse's tax rate, each spouse's earnings rise. I compare these results to those of simplified econometric models used in the typical setting in which independent variation in each spouse's tax rate is unavailable. I find that standard econometric specifications may produce substantially biased estimates.
This paper explores the effects of consumption-tax and fuel-tax adjustments in the Chinese automobile industry. Applying the model and simulation method of Berry, Levinson, and Pakes (1995), we conduct a comparative static analysis of equilibrium prices and sales, fuel consumption, and social welfare before and after tax adjustments. For the first time, we compare the progressivity of both taxes. Our empirical findings suggest that the fuel tax is effective in decreasing fuel consumption at the expense of social welfare, while the consumption tax does not significantly affect either fuel consumption or social welfare.
This paper examines the relationship between the minimum high school dropout age and juvenile arrest rates by exploiting state-level variation in dropout age laws. County-level arrest data for the period 1980 to 2008 and difference-in-difference-in-difference-type empirical strategy are used to compare the arrest rates over time of various age groups within counties that differ by their state's minimum dropout age. The evidence suggests that minimum dropout age requirements have a significant and negative effect on property and violent crime arrest rates for individuals 16 to 18 years old. The results are consistent with an incapacitation effect of schooling.
Using a unique and rich database of high-technology firms in China, we show that effective enforcement of intellectual property rights at the provincial level is critical in encouraging financing and investing in R&D. Better enforcement of intellectual property (IP) rights positively affects firms' ability to acquire new external debt and allows firms to invest in more R&D, generate more innovation patents, and produce more sales from new products. Our results suggest that facilitating financing and investing in R&D are the channels through which better IP rights enforcement can affect economic growth.
This paper tests whether upstream R&D cooperation leads to downstream collusion. We show that a sufficient condition for identifying collusive behavior is a decline in the market share of firms participating in research joint ventures (RJVs). Using information from the U.S. National Cooperation Research Act, we estimate a market share equation correcting for the endogeneity of RJV participation and R&D expenditures. We find robust evidence that large networks between direct competitors, created through firms being members in several RJVs at the same time, are conducive to collusive outcomes in the product market that reduce consumer welfare. By contrast, RJVs among noncompetitors are efficiency enhancing.
Abstract We propose an intuitive way of how to measure segregation in social and spatial networks. Using random walks, we define the segregation index as the probability that an individual meets an individual from the same social group. The segregation index is a generalization of the isolation index and a homophily index introduced in Currarini, Jackson, and Pin (2009), and it has a closed-form relation to PageRank that facilitates its computation. We also show that the Spectral Segregation Index proposed by Echenique and Fryer (2007) is not continuous with respect to the network structure. Finally, we apply the measure to Spanish census data and to citations data from economics, and rationalize the index as the equilibrium outcome of a game.
Abstract This paper extends Brock and Durlauf's (2001a, 2001b) binary choice complete network (or group interaction) model with homogeneous rational expectations to a general network model with heterogeneous rational expectations. In our model, individuals will form expectations regarding peers' behaviors taking into account their characteristics. Endogenous, contextual, and correlated effects are all identifiable. Conditions for unique equilibrium are established. For a complete network with heterogeneous rational expectations, multiple equilibria can be characterized by an aggregate scalar index. The empirical results on adolescents' smoking behaviors show significant endogenous and contextual effects, even after controlling for school-grade random effects and school fixed effects.
Abstract Using census-based data on the ability to recall one's age, we show that low levels of nutrition impaired numeracy in industrializing England, 1780 to 1850: cognitive ability declined among those born during the Napoleonic wars. The effect was stronger in areas where grain was expensive and relief for the poor, an early form of welfare support was limited. Nutritional shortages had a nonlinear effect on numeracy, with, severe shortages impairing numeracy more. Nutrition during childhood also mattered for labor market outcomes: individuals born in periods or counties with low numeracy typically worked in occupations with lower earnings.
Abstract We estimate the extent to which legal and administrative fees prevent liquidity-constrained households from declaring bankruptcy. To do so, we study how the 2001 and 2008 tax rebates affected consumer bankruptcy filings. We exploit the randomized timing of the rebate checks and estimate that the rebates caused a significant short-run increase in consumer bankruptcies in both years, with larger effects in 2008 when the rebates were more generous and more widely distributed. Using hand-collected data from individual bankruptcy petitions, we document that households that filed shortly after receiving their rebate checks had higher average liabilities and liabilities-to-income ratios.
Abstract We provide an empirical test of contrast effects—a bias where a decision maker perceives information in contrast to what preceded it—in the quasi-experimental context of speed dating decisions. We document that prior partner attractiveness reduces the subsequent likelihood of an affirmative dating decision. This relationship is confined to recent interactions, consistent with a perceptual error, but not learning or the presence of a quota in affirmative responses. The contrast effect is driven almost entirely by male evaluators. Additional evidence documents the effect's linearity with respect to prior partner attractiveness, its amplification for partners of moderate attractiveness, and its partial attenuation with accumulated experience.
Abstract This paper examines the effect of waterborne lead exposure on infant mortality in American cities over the period 1900 to 1920. Variation across cities in water acidity and the types of service pipes, which together determined the extent of lead exposure, identifies the effects of lead on infant mortality. In 1900, a decline in exposure equivalent to an increase in pH from 6.675 (25th percentile) to 7.3 (50th percentile) in cities with lead-only pipes would have been associated with a decrease in infant mortality of 7% to 33%, or at least twelve fewer infant deaths per 1,000 live births.
Abstract Do progressive marginal income tax rates discourage self-employment? We assume risk neutrality to construct an implicit surtax on stochastic income relative to steady income, arising from a convex tax schedule. It is computed as part of a structural probit model with earnings equations and a tax simulator. The tax convexity variable and the net-of-tax income difference between self- and paid employment have the predicted signs and high levels of statistical significance for the probability of self-employment. A simulated flat tax reform suggests the tax effects are small.
Abstract Using administrative panel data on the entire population of new labor immigrants to the Netherlands, we estimate the effects of individual labor market spells on immigration durations using the timing-of-events method. The model allows for correlated unobserved heterogeneity across migration, unemployment, and employment processes. We find that unemployment spells increase return probabilities for all immigrant groups, while reemployment spells typically delay returns.
Abstract This paper presents a novel stylized fact and analyzes its contribution to the skill bias of technical change in U.S. manufacturing. The share of skilled labor embedded in intermediate inputs correlates strongly with the skill share employed in final production. This finding points toward an intersectoral technology-skill complementarity (ITSC). Together with input-output linkages, the observed complementarity delivers a multiplier that reinforces skill demand along the production chain. Reduced-form estimates suggest that the effect is quantitatively important, explaining about as much skill upgrading as outsourcing. Empirical evidence suggests that one channel through which this complementarity works is product innovation. I also analyze the importance of different drivers of skill upgrading over time. While foreign outsourcing and IT capital are associated with skill demand particularly strongly from the 1980s on (a period of rapidly increasing skill premiums), R&D contributed stably throughout the period 1958 to 2005. The same is true for ITSC, which augmented within-sector skill bias in a stable fashion throughout the past five decades.
Abstract Empirical studies of peer effects rely on the assumption that peer spillovers can be measured through observables. However, in the education context, many theories of peer spillovers center around unobservables, such as ability, effort, or motivation. I show that when peer effects arise from unobservables, the typical empirical specifications will not measure these effects accurately, which may help explain differences in the magnitude and even sign of peer effect estimates across studies. I also show that under reasonable assumptions, these estimates cannot be applied to determine the effects of regrouping students, a central motivation of the literature.
Abstract Understanding when and how individuals think about real-life problems is a central question in economics. This paper studies the role of inertia (inattention), state dependence, and learning. The empirical setting is a tariff experiment, when optional measured tariffs for local telephone calls were introduced unanticipatedly. We find that consumers tend to align their choices of tariff and telephone use levels correctly. Despite low potential savings, mistakes are not permanent, as individuals actively engage in tariff switching in order to reduce the monthly cost of telephone service. Ignoring unobservable heterogeneity and the endogeneity of past choices would have reversed these results.
Abstract Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) showed the importance of multilateral resistance general equilibrium effects in estimating the response of trade flows to trade costs. We integrate this into Helpman, Melitz, and Rubinstein's (2008) extension of Anderson and van Wincoop's framework, which allows for firm heterogeneity, in order to quantify the different margins of adjustment. For bilateral trade cost changes, the general equilibrium effects are small. Surprisingly, most country pairs reduce their trade after a multilateral fall in trade costs. The global trade response to lower costs is positive, amplified by firm entry, but significantly dampened by multilateral resistance.
Abstract We investigate how prenatal economic fluctuations affected birth weight in Argentina during the period from January 2000 to December 2005 and document its procyclicality. We find evidence that the birth weight of children born to low-educated (less than high school) mothers is sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations during both the first and third trimesters of pregnancy, while those of high-educated (high school or above) mothers react only to the first trimester of pregnancy. Our results are consistent with low-educated women facing credit constraints and suffering from both nutritional deprivation and maternal stress, while high-educated women are affected only by stress.
Abstract This paper uses firm-level survey data matched with official tax records to estimate the unobserved true sales of formal firms in Mongolia. Taking into account firm-level incentives to comply with taxes and a production function technology linking unobserved true sales with observable firm-level production characteristics, we derive a multiple-indicators, multiple-causes model predicting true sales. We find that firms underreport sales to the tax office by 38.6%, but firm-level survey data also suffer from significant underreporting. Finally, we compare our approach with two alternative approaches of measuring underreporting and discuss the practical implications of the findings for firm-level analyses of underreporting.
Abstract In direct contrast to conventional wisdom and most economic models of marital age gaps, we present robust evidence that men and women who are married to differently aged spouses are negatively selected. Empirical results show lower cognitive ability, lower educational attainment, lower occupational wages, lower earnings, and less attractive appearance among those married to a differently aged spouse. These results, obtained using samples of first marriages and controlling for age of marriage, are consistent with a model in which individuals with more schooling and more upwardly mobile occupations interact more heavily with similarly aged peers and are ultimately more likely to marry similarly aged spouses.
Abstract We link industry-level data on trade and offshoring with individual-level worker data from the Current Population Surveys from 1984 to 2002. We find that occupational exposure to globalization is associated with significant wage effects, while industry exposure has no significant impact. We present evidence that globalization has put downward pressure on worker wages through the reallocation of workers away from higher-wage manufacturing jobs into other sectors and other occupations. Using a panel of workers, we find that occupation switching due to trade led to real wage losses of 12 to 17 percentage points.
Abstract This paper investigates the long-run development of China's treaty ports from the mid-eighteenth century until today. Focusing on a sample of prefectures on the coast or on the Yangtze River, I document the dynamic development paths of treaty ports and their neighbors in alternate phases of closedness and openness. I also provide suggestive evidence on migration and sector-wise growth to understand the advantage of treaty ports in the long run.
Abstract There is much interest in ambiguity-averse behavior under uncertainty, and many theories have been advanced to explain this. Empirical analyses of choices involving ambiguous options have typically used a representative agent model. We address the question of whether representative agent models are accurate approximations of reality or whether there is substantial heterogeneity in ambiguity preferences. In contrast to the representative agent model, we find that the vast majority of participants are not significantly ambiguity averse and that a significant proportion of participants are consistent with expected utility theory. This finding has important implications for the application of behavioral economics.
Abstract This paper examines the impact of the combined U.S. state and federal mortgage interest deduction (MID) on homeownership attainment, using data from 1984 to 2007 and exploiting variation in the subsidy arising from changes in the MID within and across states over time. We test whether capitalization of the MID into house prices offsets the positive effect on homeownership. We find that the MID boosts homeownership attainment only of higher-income households in less tightly regulated housing markets. In more restrictive places, an adverse effect exists. The MID is an ineffective policy to promote homeownership and improve social welfare.
Abstract Recent studies using long-run restrictions question the validity of the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis. We propose an alternative identification that maximizes the contribution of technology shocks to the forecast-error variance of labor productivity at a long but finite horizon. In small-sample Monte Carlo experiments, our identification outperforms standard long-run restrictions by significantly reducing the bias in the short-run impulse responses and raising their estimation precision. Unlike its long-run restriction counterpart, when our Max Share identification technique is applied to U.S. data, it delivers the robust result that hours worked responds negatively to positive technology shocks.
Abstract We model the decision to travel across an international border as a trade-off between benefits derived from buying a range of products at lower prices and the costs of travel. We estimate the model using microdata on Canada–United States travel. Price differences motivate cross-border travel; a 10% home appreciation raises the propensity to cross by 8% to 26%. The larger elasticity arises when the home currency is strong, a result predicted by the model. Distance to the border strongly inhibits crossings, with an implied cost of 87 cents per mile. Geographic differences can partially explain why American travel is less exchange rate responsive.
Abstract The Schumpeterian opportunity cost hypothesis predicts that firms concentrate innovative activities in recessions. However, empirical evidence suggests that innovative activities are procyclical. Theory proposes that firms shift R&D investments and innovation from recessions to booms to maximize returns by capturing high-demand periods before imitators compete away rents. This paper provides the first empirical test of these predictions. Results indicate that R&D spending is more procyclical in industries with faster obsolescence, where matching invention to demand is more valuable, and innovation is more procyclical in industries with weaker IP protection, where imitation poses a greater threat.
Abstract This paper examines the productivity growth effects of educational attainment and its interaction with the distance to the world technology frontier, which is the percentage distance to the country with the highest total factor productivity (TFP) (the United Kingdom or United States), while allowing for the endogeneity of educational attainment in some of the estimates. For this purpose, a new annual data set for educational attainment is constructed for 21 industrialized countries over the period from 1870 to 2009. The results show that changes in educational attainment and the interaction between education and the distance to the frontier, as predicted by Schumpeterian growth theory, have been influential for productivity growth over the past 140 years.
Abstract We study the prevalence of informal caregiving to elderly parents by their mature daughters in Europe and the links between parental health, intense (daily) caregiving, and the employment status of daughters. We group data from SHARE into three country pools (North, Central, and South), which differ in the availability of public formal care services and female labor market attachment. There is a strong North-South gradient in the (positive) effect of parental ill health on the probability of daily caregiving. The loss of employment ascribable to daily informal caregiving seems negligible, except in southern countries. We use a time allocation model to provide a link to an empirical IV-treatment effects framework and to interpret our findings.
Abstract Despite the prevalence of R&D support programs, evaluation studies based on explicit differences in support allocation are rare. In this paper, the identification of the causal effect of R&D support on company performance is based on geographic variation in government funding arising from a population-density rule. I find positive impacts on R&D investment, employment, and sales among the participants who were granted an R&D subsidy as a result of additional aggregate R&D support funding in their region. Although there are no instantaneous impacts on productivity, the study provides evidence of long-term productivity gains.
Abstract This paper examines why credit constraints for domestic and exporting firms arise in a setting where banks do not observe firms' productivities. To maintain incentive compatibility, banks lend below the amount that firms need for optimal production. The longer time needed for export shipments induces a tighter credit constraint on exporters than on purely domestic firms. In our application to Chinese firms, we find that the credit constraint is more stringent as a firm's export share grows, as the time to ship for exports is lengthened, and as there is greater dispersion of firms' productivities, reflecting more incomplete information.
Abstract In this paper, we explore whether information from firm-level data can improve forecasts of aggregate productivity growth. We generate firm-level productivity measures and aggregate them into time-series components that capture within-firm productivity and the productivity contribution of reallocation. We show that these components improve aggregate total factor productivity forecasts in a simple univariate setting, even when firm-level data are available with a time lag. Lagged firm-level information also improves aggregate productivity forecasts when we combine results from a variety of different multivariate forecasting models using Bayesian model averaging techniques.
Abstract Though common stocks are one of the most important assets in an economy, little is known about their demand curves. I estimate demand curves for 144 NYSE stocks using a unique data set of all orders, including off-equilibrium orders, during three months in 1990 and 1991. Connecting asset pricing with industrial organization, I find that stocks of firms in less competitive industries are more elastic because they have closer substitutes than stocks in more competitive industries. Tests that exploit the 1991 Gulf War shock and S&P 500 Index additions confirm these results.
Abstract This paper presents a New Keynesian (NK) model that is extended to differentiate between straight time and overtime work. The model proposes that the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) should be estimated with marginal cost measured in terms of overtime labor; the resulting coefficient estimates are in accordance with theory and statistically significant for the hybrid NKPC (which allows for backward-looking price setters) but not for the purely forward-looking NKPC. In the hybrid model, backward-looking behavior is found to be predominant. The paper also shows that the incorporation of employment frictions (predetermined employment and convex adjustment costs) in NK models helps reconcile the frequent price changes found in the microdata with the degree of sluggishness in inflation adjustment to output changes at the macro level.
Abstract Policymakers often assert that consumers undervalue future gasoline costs when they buy automobiles. We test this by measuring whether relative prices of vehicles with different fuel economy ratings fully adjust to variation in gasoline prices. Vehicle prices move as if consumers are indifferent between $1.00 in discounted future gas cost and $0.76 in vehicle purchase price. We show how corrections for endogenous market shares and utilization, measurement error, and different gasoline price forecasts affect the results. We also provide unique evidence of sticky information: vehicle markets respond to changes in gasoline prices with up to a six-month delay.
Abstract This paper provides a method to infer the presence of treatment spillovers within markets where a fraction of agents is treated. We model individual outcomes as functions of the assigned treatment status and the distribution of assigned treatments in a market. We develop a two-step identification and estimation method, focusing first on the treatment distribution among individuals within markets and then on the treatment distribution across markets. We apply our approach to training programs for unemployed individuals in France using rich administrative data. Our results provide evidence of interactions within local labor markets as potential individual outcomes vary with the proportion of treated individuals.
Abstract Given the wide use of child care subsidies across countries, it is surprising how little we know about the effect of these subsidies on children's longer-run outcomes. Using a sharp discontinuity in the price of child care in Norway, we are able to isolate the effects of child care subsidies on both parental and student outcomes. We find very small and statistically insignificant effects of child care subsidies on child care utilization and parental labor force participation. Despite this, we find significant positive effect of the subsidies on children's academic performance in junior high school, suggesting that the positive shock to disposable income provided by the subsidies may be helping to improve children's scholastic aptitude.
Abstract Physician-induced demand, whereby physicians alter patient treatment for personal gain, lies at the heart of concerns about publicly provided health care. However, little is known about how payment systems affect the ultimate outcome of patient health. Exploiting a unique policy induced variation in Denmark, I investigate the impact of physician payment contracts on infant health. In a difference-in-differences framework, I find that firstborn infants exposed in the womb to the care of general practitioners with capitation contracts have poorer infant health outcomes than infants exposed to fee-for-service contracts. The firstborn children of younger women primarily drive the effects.
Abstract Data linking 1972 and 1992 adolescent skill endowments to adult outcomes reveal increasing complementarity between cognitive and social skills. In fact, previously noted growth in demand for cognitive skills affected only individuals with strong endowments of both social and cognitive skills. These findings are corroborated using Census and CPS data matched with Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT) job task measures; employment in and earnings premia to occupations requiring high levels of both cognitive and social skill grew substantially compared with occupations that require only one or neither type of skill, and this emerging feature of the labor market has persisted into the new millennium.
Abstract Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a Markov-switching New Keynesian (MSNK) model that allows shifts in the monetary policy reaction coefficients and shock volatilities with U.S. data. We find that a more aggressive monetary policy regime was in place after the Volcker disinflation and before 1970 than during the Great Inflation of the 1970s. Our estimates also indicate that a low-volatility regime has been in place during most of the sample period after 1984. We connect the timing of the different regimes to a measure of inflation persistence.
Abstract We use direct evidence on credit constraints to study their importance for household consumption growth and for welfare. We distentangle the direct effect on consumption growth of a currently binding credit constraint from the indirect effect of a potentially binding credit constraint that generates consumption risk. Our data are focused on job losers. We find that less than 5% of job losers experience a binding credit constraint, but those who do experience significant welfare losses, and consumption growth is 24% higher than for the rest of the population. However, even among those who are unconstrained and are able to borrow if needed, consumption responds to transitory income.
Abstract Frölich (2004) compares the finite sample properties of reweighting and matching estimators of average treatment effects and concludes that reweighting performs far worse than even the simplest matching estimator. We argue that this conclusion is unjustified. Neither approach dominates the other uniformly across data-generating processes (DGPs). Expanding on Frölich's analysis, this paper analyzes empirical as well as hypothetical DGPs and also examines the effect of misspecification. We conclude that reweighting is competitive with the most effective matching estimators when overlap is good, but that matching may be more effective when overlap is sufficiently poor.
Abstract We propose an observation-driven dynamic factor model for mixed-measurement and mixed-frequency panel data. Time series observations may come from a range of families of distributions, be observed at different frequencies, have missing observations, and exhibit common dynamics and cross-sectional dependence due to shared dynamic latent factors. A feature of our model is that the likelihood function is known in closed form. This enables parameter estimation using standard maximum likelihood methods. We adopt the new framework for signal extraction and forecasting of macro, credit, and loss given default risk conditions for U.S. Moody's-rated firms from January 1982 to March 2010.
Abstract We propose a random coefficients nested logit (RCNL) model to compare the tractable nested logit (NL) model with the more complex random coefficients logit (RC) model. After a simulation study, we use data on the European automobile market. Both the NL and RC models are rejected against the RCNL model. The RC model results in different substitution patterns and a wider market definition than the NL and RCNL models. Nevertheless, the predicted price effects from mergers are robust across models. Our findings stress the importance of accounting for discrete sources of market segmentation not captured by continuous product characteristics.
Abstract We study how knowledge about the social network of an individual researcher, as embodied in his coauthor relations, helps us in developing a more accurate prediction of his or her future productivity. We find that incorporating information about coauthor networks leads to a modest improvement in the accuracy of forecasts on individual output, over and above what we can predict based on the knowledge of past individual output. Second, we find that the informativeness of networks dissipates over the lifetime of a researcher's career. This suggests that the signaling content of the network is quantitatively more important than the flow of ideas.
Abstract To explain the rise in Afghan opium production, we explore how rising conflicts change the incentives of farmers. Conflicts make illegal opportunities more profitable as they increase the perceived lawlessness and destroy infrastructure crucial to alternative crops. Exploiting a unique data set, we show that Western hostile casualties, our proxy for conflict, have a strong impact on subsequent local opium production. Using the period after the planting season as a placebo test, we show that conflict has a strong effect before but no effect after planting, indicating causality.
Abstract We develop a new distance-based test of localized knowledge spillovers that embeds the concept of control patents. Using microgeographic data, we identify localization distance for each technology class while allowing for spillovers across geographic units. We revisit the debate between Thompson and Fox-Kean (2005a, 2005b) and Henderson, Jaffe, and Trajtenberg (2005) on the existence of localized knowledge spillovers and find solid evidence supporting localization even when using finely grained controls. Unless biases induced by imperfect matching between citing and control patents due to unobserved heterogeneity are extremely large, our distance-based test detects localization for the majority of technology classes.
Abstract Firms may adjust capital and labor sequentially or simultaneously. In this paper, we develop a structural model of interrelated factor demand subject to nonconvex adjustment costs and estimated by simulated method of moments. Based on Norwegian manufacturing industry plant-level data, parameter estimates reveal cost advantages for adjusting capital and making net changes in labor simultaneously. Factor demand models with fully specified interrelated adjustment costs structures perform best to describe the dynamic panel data.
Abstract In this paper, I construct product-level U.S.-manufacturing-imports data for new products. I show that consistent with product cycles, the North's new-products exports to the United States, relative to its old-products exports, grow faster than the South's for over a decade; then the South catches up with the North, and this pattern is reversed. This finding holds up in parametric, nonparametric, and semiparametric estimations, and only when new products are properly identified and old products within the same industries are used as controls. There is also evidence that product cycles become shorter over time and they are technology related.
Abstract We evaluate the role skin color plays in earnings and employment for black males in the NLSY97. By applying a novel, scaled measure of skin tone to a nationally representative sample and by estimating the evolution of labor market differentials over time, we bridge a burgeoning literature on skin color with more established literatures on wage differentials and labor market discrimination. We find that while intraracial wage gaps widen with experience, gaps between the lightest-skinned black workers and whites remain constant, suggesting that a blurring of the color line elicits subtle yet meaningful variation in earnings differentials over time.
Abstract We use unique longitudinal data to document an economically and statistically significant positive correlation between the facial attractiveness of male high school graduates and their subsequent labor market earnings. There are only weak links between facial attractiveness and direct measures of cognitive skills and no link between facial attractiveness and mortality. Even after including a lengthy set of characteristics, including IQ, high school activities, proxy measures for confidence and personality, family background, and additional respondent characteristics in an empirical model of earnings, the attractiveness premium is present in the respondents’ mid-30s and early 50s. Our findings are consistent with attractiveness being an enduring, positive labor market characteristic.
Abstract We examine peer effects in teen childbearing among close friends, using miscarriages as a natural experiment. We use 775 women from the core sample of Add Health who had a friend with a teen pregnancy. We find a sizable negative treatment effect: a close friend’s teen birth is associated with a 6 percentage point reduction in the likelihood of own teen pregnancy and childbearing. There is evidence that this effect operates through a learning mechanism by changing beliefs regarding early childbearing. Effects of teen pregnancy prevention policies may be partially offset by reductions in the opportunities for social learning.
Abstract This paper uses random assignment of students to investigate the impact of study groups and roommates on academic achievement. We find that informal social interaction with roommates has a significant positive impact on academic achievement, while study group peers have no discernible impact, a result driven by group heterogeneity in ability. We also find that lower-ability students benefit from high-ability students but not vice versa.
Abstract Psychologists and economists have argued that rewards often have hidden costs. One possible reason is that the principal may have incentives to offer higher rewards when she knows the task is difficult. Our experiment tests if high rewards embody such bad news and if this is correctly perceived by their recipients. Our design allows us to decompose the overall effect of rewards on effort into a direct incentive and an informational effect. The results show that participants correctly interpret high rewards as bad news. In accordance with theory, the negative informational effect coexists with the direct positive effect.
Abstract Governments around the world are reforming their social security systems in light of the challenges posed by population aging. We study the 1993 Australian Age Pension reform, which progressively increased the eligibility age for women from 60 to 65 years. We find economically significant responses to the reform. An increase in the eligibility age of one year induced a decline in the probability of retirement by 12 to 19 percentage points. In addition, the reform induced significant program substitution, with increases in enrollment in other social insurance programs, particularly the disability support pension, which effectively functioned as an alternative source of retirement income.
Abstract Standard job search theory assumes that unemployed individuals have perfect information about the effect of their search effort on the job offer arrival rate. We present an alternative model that assumes that each individual has a subjective belief about the impact of her search effort on the job arrival. These beliefs depend in part on an individual's locus of control. We estimate the impact of locus of control on job search behavior using a data set of newly unemployed individuals in Germany. Consistent with our theoretical predictions, we find evidence that individuals with an internal locus of control search more and that individuals who believe that their future outcomes are determined by external factors have lower reservation wages.
Abstract Has the Kyoto Protocol induced carbon leakage? We conduct the first empirical ex post evaluation of the protocol. We derive a theoretical gravity equation for the carbon dioxide content of trade, which accounts for intermediate inputs, both domestic and imported. The structure of our new panel database of the carbon content of sectoral bilateral trade flows allows controlling for the endogenous selection of countries into the Kyoto Protocol. Binding commitments under Kyoto have increased committed countries' embodied carbon imports from noncommitted countries by around 8% and the emission intensity of their imports by about 3%. Hence, Kyoto has indeed led to leakage.
Abstract We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle; (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks; (c) the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input-output linkages; and (d) macroeconomic shocks, such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy, government spending, oil prices, and financial conditions, are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts.
Abstract Short-term increasing returns to production factors are usually found in empirical studies. We argue they can be due to omitted variables, particularly the intensity of factor utilization. Thanks to original French firm-level data (1992–2008), we show how increasing returns to scale disappear when working time, capacity utilization rate, and, particularly, capital operating time are introduced in the production function.
Abstract Does online availability boost citations? Using a panel of citations to economics and business journals, we show that the enormous effects found in previous studies were an artifact of their failure to control for article quality, disappearing once fixed effects are added as controls. The absence of aggregate effects masks heterogeneity across platforms: JSTOR has a uniquely large effect, boosting citations around 10%. We examine other sources of heterogeneity, including whether JSTOR disproportionately increases cites from developing countries or to “long-tail” articles. Our theoretical analysis informs the econometric specification and allows citation increases to be translated into welfare terms.
Abstract We examine variety pass-through effects that occur when multiproduct retailers adjust the length of their product lines in response to changes in wholesale prices. Studying variety pass-through is essential to understanding how wholesale price changes transmit into retail prices when variety is endogenous. Using data from the ready-to-eat breakfast cereal category, we find that retailers jointly adjust retail prices and the length of their product lines in response to changes in wholesale prices. We show the importance of controlling for the endogeneity of retailers’ product line decisions when calculating price pass-through rates.
Abstract We argue that the rise of online travel agencies changed the nature of competition in the airline industry—from competition on elapsed scheduled flight times to price competition. Using flight-level data between 1997 and 2007 and geographical Internet growth patterns, we find a positive relationship between Internet access and flight times. The magnitude of this relationship is larger in competitive markets without low-cost carriers and for flights with shortest scheduled times. We also find that flight delays increased as more passengers gained Internet access. These findings suggest that the Internet may adversely affect firms’ performance and incentives to provide high-quality products.
Abstract We propose a methodology for estimating the competition effects from entry when firms sell differentiated products. We first derive precise conditions under which Bresnahan and Reiss’s entry threshold ratios (ETRs) can be used to measure competition effects. We then augment the traditional entry model with a revenue equation. This serves to adjust the ETRs by the extent of market expansion from entry, giving unbiased estimates of the competition effects. We apply our approach to seven local service sectors. We find that entry typically leads to significant market expansion, implying that traditional ETRs may substantially underestimate the competition effects from entry.
Abstract The paper develops an asymptotically valid F-test that is robust to spatial autocorrelation in a GMM framework. The validity of the F-test is established under mild conditions that can accommodate a wide range of spatial processes. The proposed F-test is very easy to implement, as critical values are from a standard F-distribution. The F-test achieves triple robustness: it is asymptotically valid regardless of the spatial autocorrelation, the sampling region, and the limiting behavior of the smoothing parameter. Simulation also shows that the F-test has good size and power properties in finite samples.
Abstract This paper shows that poor households’ entitlement to an exogenous, temporary, but guaranteed income stream increases Mexican migration to the United States, although this income is mainly consumed. Some households use the entitlement to this income stream as collateral to finance the migration. The new migrations come from previously constrained individuals and households and worsen migrant skills. In sum, financial constraints to international migration are binding for poor Mexicans, some of whom would like to migrate but cannot afford to. As growth and antipoverty and microfinance programs relax financial constraints for the poor, low-skilled Mexican migration to the United States will likely increase.
Abstract The introduction of automatic bill payment (ABP) programs in 2005 eliminated the need for consumers to view recurring bills. If those enrolled in ABP programs offered by utilities and other service providers forgo inspection of their recurring bills, then price salience declines, prices perceived by boundedly rational agents fall, and consumption increases. This paper considers the impact of such programs on consumer demand and welfare and empirically tests whether enrollment in such programs increases demand. Results show ABP enrollment increases residential electricity consumption by 4.0% and commercial electricity consumption by as much as 8.1%. Enrollment in programs designed to smooth seasonal variation in monthly utility bills of low-income customers results in 6.7% greater electricity use.
Abstract We provide new evidence on consumer demand for ethical products from experiments conducted in a U.S. grocery store chain. We find that sales of the two most popular coffees rose by almost 10% when they carried a Fair Trade label as compared to a generic placebo label. Demand for the higher-priced coffee remained steady when its price was raised by 8%, but demand for the lower-priced coffee was elastic: a 9% price increase led to a 30% decline in sales. While consumers attach value to ethical sourcing, there is significant heterogeneity in willingness to pay for it.
Abstract Standard economic models assume that the demand for expert predictions arises only under the conditions in which individuals are uncertain about the underlying process generating the data and there is a strong belief that past performances predict future performances. We set up the strongest possible test of these assumptions. In contrast to the theoretical suggestions made in the literature, people are willing to pay for predictions of truly random outcomes after witnessing only a short streak of accurate predictions live in the lab. We discuss potential explanations and implications of such irrational learning in the contexts of economics and finance.
Abstract The preferences assumed to govern intertemporal trade-offs are generally considered to be stable economic primitives, though evidence on this stability is notably lacking. We present evidence from a large field study conducted over two years, with around 1,400 individuals using incentivized intertemporal choice experiments. Aggregate choice profiles and corresponding estimates of discount parameters are unchanged over the two years and individual correlations through time are high by existing standards. However, some individuals show signs of instability. By linking experimental measures to administrative tax records, we showthat identified instability is uncorrelated with both levels and changes in sociodemographic variables.
Abstract We report results from a large, randomized field to study how access to formal microinsurance affects production and economic development. We induce exogenous variation in insurance coverage at the village level by randomly assigning performance incentives to the village animal husbandry worker who is responsible for signing farmers up for the insurance. We find that promoting greater adoption of insurance significantly increases farmers' sow production, and this effect seems to persist in the longer run; moreover, the increase in sow production in response to the sow insurance does not seem to be the result of the substitution of other livestock.
Abstract This paper capitalizes on a unique situation in Israel where car insurance coverage is often distributed as a benefit by employers. In our sample, employer-determined coverage resulted in an average $235 discount in accident costs. Using instrumental variable analysis on data provided by an insurance firm in Israel (2001–2008), we find that each $100 reduction in accident costs results in a 1.7 percentage point increase in the probability of an accident. At an average accident rate of 16.3 percent, this 10 percent increase in auto accidents can be interpreted as the effect of moral hazard on car accidents.
Abstract By influencing the size and bargaining power of private insurers, public subsidization of private health insurance may project effects beyond the subsidized population. We test for such spillovers by analyzing how increases in insurer size resulting from the implementation of Medicare Part D affected drug prices negotiated in the non-Medicare commercial market. On average, Part D lowered prices for commercial enrollees by 3.7 percentage. The external commercial market savings amount to $1.5 billion per year, which, if passed to consumers, approximates the internal cost savings of newly insured subsidized beneficiaries. If retained by insurers, it corresponds to a greater than 9.25 percentage average increase in profitability on stand-alone drug insurance.
Abstract We implemented a randomized field experiment that tested ways to stimulate migrants’ savings in their origin country. We find that migrants value opportunities to exert greater control over financial activities in their home countries. We offered U.S.-based migrants bank accounts in El Salvador, randomly varying migrant control over El Salvador–based savings by offering different accounts across treatments. Migrants offered the greatest degree of control accumulated the most savings. Impacts likely represent increases in total savings; there is no evidence that savings increases were simply reallocated from other savings mechanisms. Enhanced control over home country savings does not affect remittances sent home.
Abstract Some have suggested that housing policy, embodied by the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) and affordable housing goals of the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), caused the subprime crisis. We examine if these programs led to worse mortgage outcomes using two approaches. The first examines whether more activity by CRA-covered lenders, or more loan sales to the GSEs, was associated with worse outcomes. The second uses regression discontinuity to determine if outcomes were worse at the geographic thresholds used by each program. Our results suggest that neither program played a significant role in the subprime crisis.
Abstract We estimate the impact of incentive strength on achievement under a group-based teacher incentive pay program. The system provides variation in the share of students in a subject-grade that a teacher instructs, which proxies for incentive strength. We find that achievement on incentivized exams, but not nonincentivized exams, improves when incentives strengthen. For the incentivized exams, we find that effects fade out monotonically as a teacher's portion of the group increases to between 20 and 30 percentage and are larger for teachers with low-achieving students. Calculations based off these estimates show modest positive effects of the program overall.
Abstract Empirical researchers interested in the causal effect of the endogenous regressor often use instrumental variables. When few valid instruments are available, they typically estimate restricted specifications that impose uniform per unit treatment effects, even when these effects are likely to vary. We show that in these cases, ordinary least squares and instrumental variables estimators identify different weighted averages of all per unit effects, so the traditional Hausman test is uninformative about endogeneity. We develop a new exogeneity test that works even when the true model cannot be estimated using IV methods as long as a single valid instrument is available. We revisit three recent empirical examples to demonstrate the practical value of our test.
Abstract We derive testable implications of instrument validity in just identified treatment effect models with endogeneity and consider several tests. The identifying assumptions of the local average treatment effect allow us to both point identify and bound the mean potential outcomes of the always takers under treatment and the never takers under nontreatment. The point-identified means must lie within their respective bounds, which provides us with four testable inequality moment constraints. Finally, we adapt our testing framework to the identification of distributional features. A brief simulation study and an application to labor market data are also provided.
Abstract Regression and SDF approaches with centered or uncentered moments and symmetric or asymmetric normalizations are commonly used to empirically evaluate linear factor pricing models. We show that unlike two-step or iterated GMM procedures, single-step estimators such as continuously updated GMM yield numerically identical risk prices, pricing errors, and overidentifying restrictions tests irrespective of the model validity and regardless of the factors being traded, or the use of excess or gross returns. We illustrate our results with Lustig and Verdelhan’s (2007) currency returns, propose tests to detect some problematic cases, and provide Monte Carlo evidence on the reliability of asymptotic approximations.
Abstract Vector autoregressions (VARs) are flexible time series models that can capture complex dynamic interrelationships among macroeconomic variables. However, their dense parameterization leads to unstable inference and inaccurate out-of-sample forecasts, particularly for models with many variables. A solution to this problem is to use informative priors in order to shrink the richly parameterized unrestricted model toward a parsimonious naıve benchmark, and thus reduce estimation uncertainty. This paper studies the optimal choice of the informativeness of these priors, which we treat as additional parameters, in the spirit of hierarchical modeling. This approach, theoretically grounded and easy to implement, greatly reduces the number and importance of subjective choices in the setting of the prior. Moreover, it performs very well in terms of both out-of-sample forecasting—as well as factor models—and accuracy in the estimation of impulse response functions.
Abstract Suppose that all people in the world are allocated only two characteristics over which they have (almost) no control: country of residence and income distribution within that country. Assume further that there is no migration. We show that more than one-half of variability in income of world population classified according to their household per capita in 1% income groups (by country) is accounted for by these two characteristics. The role of effort or luck cannot play a large role in explaining the global distribution of individual income.
Abstract Quantitative estimates of the impacts of climate change on economic outcomes are important for public policy. We show that the vast majority of estimates fail to account for well-established uncertainty in future temperature and rainfall changes, leading to potentially misleading projections. We reexamine seven well-cited studies and show that accounting for climate uncertainty leads to a much larger range of projected climate impacts and a greater likelihood of worst-case outcomes, an important policy parameter. Incorporating climate uncertainty into future economic impact assessments will be critical for providing the best possible information on potential impacts.
Abstract This paper examines how the fertility of enslaved women was affected by the promise of freedom. Exploiting geographic variation in the effect of the Fugitive Slave Law of 1850, I demonstrate a negative correlation between fertility and the distance to freedom. This negative correlation is stronger on larger plantations but weaker when the slaveholder is a woman. A similar correlation is not present for white children, slave children with white fathers, or slave children born prior to the Fugitive Slave Law. The negative correlation suggests that the promise of freedom played an important role in the everyday lives of slaves.
Abstract This paper uses firm-level panel data of on-the-job training to estimate its impact on productivity and wages. To this end, we apply and extend the control function approach for estimating production functions, which allows us to correct for the endogeneity of input factors and training. We find that the productivity premium of a trained worker is substantially higher compared to the wage premium. Our results are consistent with recent theories that explain work-related training by imperfect competition in the labor market.
Abstract We study entrepreneurship and growth through the lens of U.S. cities. Initial entrepreneurship correlates strongly with urban employment growth, but endogeneity bedevils interpretation. Chinitz (1961) hypothesized that coal mines near cities led to specialization in industries, like steel, with significant scale economies and that those big firms subsequently damped entrepreneurship across several generations. Proximity to historical mining deposits is associated with reduced entrepreneurship for cities in the 1970s and onward in industries unrelated to mining. We use historical mines as an instrument for our modern entrepreneurship measures and find a persistent link between entrepreneurship and city employment growth.
Abstract We use variation from the minimum legal drinking age to estimate the causal effect of access to alcohol on crime. Using a census of arrests in California and a regression discontinuity design, we find that individuals just over age 21 are 5.9% more likely to be arrested than individuals just under 21. This increase is mostly due to assaults, alcohol-related offenses, and nuisance crimes. These results suggest that policies that restrict access to alcohol have the potential to substantially reduce crime.
Abstract Using detailed U.S. and Spanish export data, we document that trade costs of a per-shipment nature are associated with less frequent and larger shipments (i.e., more lumpiness) in international trade. This finding is pervasive across broad product categories, but most apparent for industrial supplies, parts and accessories, and food products.
Abstract To identify the causal effect of schooling on cognitive skills, we exploit conditionally random variation in the date Swedish males take a battery of cognitive tests in preparation for military service. We find an extra ten days of school instruction raises scores on crystallized intelligence tests (synonyms and technical comprehension tests) by approximately 1% of a standard deviation, whereas extra nonschool days have almost no effect. In contrast, test scores on fluid intelligence tests (spatial and logic tests) do not increase with additional days of schooling but do increase modestly with age.
Abstract A common assumption is that the rise of drug testing among U.S. employers must have had negative consequences for black employment. I use variation in the timing and nature of drug testing regulation to identify the impacts of testing on black hiring. I find that adoption of protesting legislation increases black employment in the testing sector by 7% to 30% and relative wages by 1.4% to 13.0%, with the largest shifts among low-skilled black men. The results are consistent with ex ante discrimination and suggest that drug testing may benefit African Americans by enabling nonusing blacks to prove their status to employers.
Abstract The Fair Trade (FT) coffee initiative attempts to channel charity from consumers to poor producers via increased prices. We show that the rules of the FT system permit this rent to be eliminated due to free entry and costly excess certification of output. Using data from an association of coffee cooperatives in Central America, we verify that expected producer benefits are close to 0 when we take into account the output that is certified but not sold as FT. Our results illustrate how free entry undermines the attempt at extending charity via a price distortion in an otherwise competitive market.
Abstract We provide firm-level evidence that credit constraints restrict international trade and affect the pattern of multinational activity. We show that foreign affiliates and joint ventures in China have better export performance than private domestic firms in financially more vulnerable sectors. These results are stronger for destinations with higher trade costs and not driven by firm size or other sector characteristics. Our findings are consistent with multinational subsidiaries being less liquidity constrained because they can access foreign capital markets or funding from their parent company. They further suggest that FDI can alleviate the impact of domestic financial market imperfections on trade.
Abstract This research examines the climatic origins of the diffusion of Neolithic agriculture across countries and archaeological sites. The theory suggests that a foraging society's history of climatic shocks shaped the timing of its adoption of farming. Specifically, as long as climatic disturbances did not lead to a collapse of the underlying resource base, the rate at which hunter-gatherers were climatically propelled to experiment with their habitats determined the accumulation of tacit knowledge complementary to farming. Consistent with the proposed hypothesis, the empirical investigation demonstrates that, conditional on biogeographic endowments, climatic volatility has a hump-shaped effect on the timing of the adoption of agriculture.
Abstract Using geographically disaggregated data and exploiting an instrumental variable strategy, we show that contrary to conventional wisdom, the benefits of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) were progressive. The CAAA created incentives for local regulators to target the initially dirtiest areas for cleanup, creating heterogeneity in the incidence of air quality improvements that favored lower-income households. Based on house price appreciation, households in the lowest quintile of the income distribution received annual benefits from the program equal to 0.3% of their income on average during the 1990s, over twice as much as those in the highest quintile.
Abstract Using a microlevel data set of wind turbine installations in Denmark and Germany, we estimate a structural oligopoly model with cross-border trade and heterogeneous firms. Our approach separately identifies border-related from distance-related variable costs and bounds the fixed cost of exporting for each firm. In the data, firms’ market shares drop precipitously at the border. We find that 40% to 50% of the gap can be attributed to national border costs. Counterfactual analysis indicates that eliminating national border frictions would increase total welfare in the wind turbine industry by 4% in Denmark and 6% in Germany.
Abstract While innovation matters for competitiveness, it may expose firms to survival risks. Using plant-product data for Chile and discretetime hazard models, we show that innovating plants have a lower hazard of exit. However, risk has a strong impact on the innovation-exit relationship: only innovators that retain diversified sources of revenue or face lower market risk are less likely to die. Single-product innovators are at greater risk of exiting. Exposure to technical risk does not affect exit probabilities differentially. We provide tentative evidence that singleproduct innovators have higher profits, which helps to rationalize their innovation decision despite the increased risk of exit.
Abstract Originators seek to mitigate the loss of monopoly power by authorizing generic entry prior to patent expiry. Off-patent competition may be adversely affected if authorized generic entry substantially lowers the attractiveness of subsequent generic entry. This study assesses the impact of authorized generic entry on independent generic entry in recent cases of patent expiry in Germany. The results of a recursive bivariate probit regression, accounting for the endogeneity of authorized generic entry, show that authorized generic entry has no significant effect on the likelihood of generic entry. Business scope expansion and rent-seeking motives drive authorized generic entry decisions.
Abstract We analyze insurance-pricing regulation under imperfect competition on the Massachusetts health insurance exchange. Differential markups lead to price variation apart from cost variation. Coarse insurer pricing strategies identify consumer demand. Younger consumers are twice as price sensitive as older consumers. Older consumers thus face higher markups over costs. Modified community rating links prices for consumers differing in both costs and preferences, and changes the marginal consumer firms face. Stricter regulations transfer resources from low-cost to high-cost consumers, reduce firm profits, and increase overall consumer surplus.
Abstract Using estimators of the variation of positive and negative returns (realized semivariances) and high-frequency data for the S&P 500 Index and 105 individual stocks, this paper sheds new light on the predictability of equity price volatility.We showthat future volatility is more strongly related to the volatility of past negative returns than to that of positive returns and that the impact of a price jump on volatility depends on the sign of the jump, with negative (positive) jumps leading to higher (lower) future volatility. We show that models exploiting these findings lead to significantly better out-of-sample forecast performance.
Abstract This paper presents a new empirical regularity between the volatility of productivity growth and long-run unemployment for a given level of long-run productivity growth. A theoretical framework based on asymmetric real wage rigidities is shown to have the potential to rationalize this finding. The model tends to fit U.S. long-run unemployment better than a specification based on long-run productivity growth only, especially during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession.
Abstract We link data on racial self-identification with changes in statelevel affirmative action policies to ask whether racial self-identification responds to economic incentives. We find that after a state bans affirmative action, multiracial individuals who face an incentive to identify under affirmative action are about 30% less likely to identify with their minority group. In contrast, multiracial individuals who face a disincentive to identify under affirmative action are roughly 20% more likely to identify with their minority group once affirmative action policies are banned.
Abstract This study makes use of detailed student-level data from eight cohorts of first-year students at Northwestern University to investigate the relative effects of tenure track/tenured versus contingent faculty on student learning. We focus on classes taken during a student’s first term at Northwestern and employ an identification strategy in which we control for both student-level fixed effects and next-class-taken fixed effects to measure the degree to which contingent faculty contribute more or less to lasting student learning than do other faculty. We find consistent evidence that students learn relatively more from contingent faculty in their firstterm courses. This result is driven by the fact that the bottom quarter of tenure track/tenured faculty (as indicted by our measure of teaching effectiveness) has lower “value added” than their contingent counterparts. Differences between contingent and tenure track/tenured faculty are present across a wide variety of subject areas and are particularly pronounced for Northwestern’s averages and less-qualified students.
Abstract Using data from employer-provided health insurance and Medicare Part D, we investigate whether health care utilization responds to the dynamic incentives created by the nonlinear nature of health insurance contracts. We exploit the fact that because annual coverage usually resets every January, individuals who join a plan later in the year face the same initial (“spot”) price of health care but a higher expected end-of-year (“future”) price. We find a statistically significant response of initial utilization to the future price, rejecting the null that individuals respond only to the spot price. We discuss implications for analysis of moral hazard in health insurance.
Abstract This paper empirically tests the association between genetically determined resistance to infectious disease and cross-country health differences. A country-level measure of genetic diversity for the system of genes associated with the recognition and disposal of foreign pathogens is constructed. Genetic diversity within this system has been shown to reduce the virulence and prevalence of infectious diseases and is hypothesized to have been naturally selected from historical exposure to infectious pathogens. Base estimation shows a statistically strong, robust, and positive relationship between this constructed measure and country-level health outcomes in times prior to, but not after, the international epidemiological transition.
Abstract We use georeferenced information on the location of violent events in sub-Saharan African countries and provide evidence that external income shocks are important determinants of the intensity and geography of civil conflicts. More precisely, we find that (a) the incidence, intensity, and onset of conflicts are generally negatively and significantly correlated with income variations at the local level; (b) this relationship is significantly weaker for the most remote locations; and (c) at the country level, these shocks have an insignificant impact on the overall probability of conflict outbreak but do affect the probability that conflicts start in the most opened regions.
Abstract Trade costs are often additive. Well-known examples are quotas, per unit tariffs, and, in part, transportation costs. In spite of this, we have no broad and systematic evidence of the magnitude of these costs. In this paper, we develop a new empirical framework for estimating additive trade costs from standard firm-level trade data. Our results suggest that additive barriers are on average 14%, expressed relative to the median price. The point estimates are strongly correlated with common proxies for trade costs. Using our microestimates, we show that an additive import tariff reduces welfare and trade by more than an equal-yield multiplicative tariff.
Abstract Previous studies have demonstrated that a multitude of options can lead to choice overload, reducing decision quality. Through controlled experiments, we examine sequential choice architectures that enable the choice set to remain large while potentially reducing the effect of choice overload. A specific tournament-style architecture achieves this goal. An alternate architecture in which subjects compare each subset of options to the most preferred option encountered thus far fails to improve performance due to the status quo bias. Subject preferences over different choice architectures are negatively correlated with performance, suggesting that providing choice over architectures might reduce the quality of decisions.
Abstract This paper proposes a novel matching estimator where neighbors used and weights are endogenously determined by optimizing a covariate balancing criterion. The estimator is based on finding, for each unit that needs to be matched, sets of observations such that a convex combination of them has the same covariate values as the unit needing matching or with minimized distance between them. We implement the proposed estimator with data from the National Supported Work Demonstration, finding outstanding performance in terms of covariate balance. Monte Carlo evidence shows that our estimator performs well in designs previously used in the literature.
Abstract A leading explanation in the economic literature is that monetary policy has real effects on the economy because firms incur a cost when changing prices. Using a unique database of cost and retail price changes, we find that variation in menu costs results in up to 13.3% fewer price increases. We confirm that these effects are allocative and have a persistent impact on both prices and unit sales. We provide evidence that the menu cost channel operates only when cost increases are small in magnitude, which is consistent with theory and provides the first empirical evidence of boundary conditions.
Abstract We measure price-level uncertainty and instability in the United States over the period 1850 to 2012. Major outbreaks of price-level uncertainty and instability occur both before and after World War II, alternating with three price-level moderations: one near the turn of the twentieth century, another under Bretton Woods, and a third in the 1990s. There is no evidence that the price level was systematically more stable or less uncertain before or after World War II. Moderations sometimes involved links to gold, but the experience of the 1990s proves that a well-managed fiat regime can achieve the same outcome.
Abstract We combine firm-level panel data on U.S. foreign affiliate activity with detailed measures of U.S. trade policy to study the relationship between offshoring and preferential market access. Consistent with theory, we find that trade preferences and offshoring activity are positively and significantly correlated. Using instrumental variables, we estimate that a 10% increase in U.S. foreign affiliate exports to the United States is associated with a 4 percentage point increase in the rate of preferential duty-free access. Restricting attention to the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) among developing countries, this estimate more than triples, relative to the baseline, full sample results.
Abstract Are location-specific factors important for understanding firms’ heterogeneities? We examine prices and quality metrics for Japanese cars at wholesale auctions, comparing otherwise identical cars assembled in the United States versus Japan. We find similar values regardless of country of assembly. These results indicate that Japanese automakers in general have successfully transferred their practices to their U.S. transplants and that there is no inherent limitation to high-quality automobile production in the United States. Deeper analysis of patterns for Toyota cars, complemented by historical analysis, suggests that although it is possible to transfer standards, quality convergence can require conscious effort and not just cumulative production.
Abstract We model spatial clusters of similar firms. Our model highlights how agglomerative forces lead to localized, individual connections among firms, while interaction costs generate a defined distance over which attraction forces operate. Overlapping firm interactions yield agglomeration clusters that are much larger than the underlying agglomerative forces themselves. Empirically, we demonstrate that our model’s assumptions are present in the structure of technology and labor flows within Silicon Valley. Our model further identifies how the lengths over which agglomerative forces operate influence the shapes and sizes of industrial clusters; we confirm these predictions using variations across patent technology clusters.
Abstract Based on two strands of theoretical research, this paper provides new evidence on how fares are jointly affected by in-flight seat availability and purchasing date. As capacity-based theories predict, it emerges that fares monotonically and substantially increase with flight occupancy. After controlling for capacity utilization, our analysis also supports time-based theories, indicating a U-shaped temporal profile over a two-month booking period, as well as a sharp increase in fares in the two weeks prior to departure.
Abstract This paper examines the factors that give rise to intermediaries in exporting and explores the implications for trade volumes. Export intermediaries such as wholesalers serve different markets and export different products than manufacturing exporters do. Wholesalers are more prevalent in markets with higher destination-specific fixed costs and focus on products that are less differentiated, have lower contract intensity, and have large sunk entry costs. Aggregate exports to destinations with high shares of indirect exports are less responsive to changes in the real exchange rate than are exports to markets served primarily by direct exporters.
Abstract Do banks matter for growth, and if so, how? This paper examines the effects of national banks in the United States from 1870 to 1900. I use the discontinuity in entry caused by a large minimum size requirement to identify the effects of banking. For the counties on the margin between getting a bank and not, gaining a bank increased production per person by 10%. National banks in rural areas improved agriculture over manufacturing, moving counties toward geographic comparative advantage. Since these banks made few long-term loans, the evidence suggests that the provision of working capital and liquidity matters for growth.
Abstract We employ a weighted repeat rent estimator to construct quarterly indexes that expand the profession’s ability to make cross-sectional comparisons of housing markets. Our analysis shows that there is considerable heterogeneity in the behavior of rents across cities over the 2000–2010 decade, but the number of cities and years for which nominal rents fell is substantial; rents fell in many cities following the onset of the housing crisis in 2007; and the repeat rent and Bureau of Labor Statistics indexes differ due to sampling and construction methods.
Abstract We draw on macroeconomic models of diffusion and productivity to explain empirical patterns of survival gains in heart attacks. Using Medicare data for 2.8 million patients from 1986 to 2004, we find that hospitals rapidly adopting cost-effective innovations such as beta blockers, aspirin, and reperfusion had substantially better outcomes for their patients. Holding technology adoption constant, the marginal returns to spending were relatively modest. Hospitals increasing the pace of technology diffusion (“tigers”) experienced triple the survival gains compared to those with diminished rates (“tortoises”). In sum, small differences in the propensity to adopt effective technology lead to wide productivity differences across hospitals.
Abstract This paper studies entry and capacity decisions by dialysis providers in the United States. We estimate a structural model where providers make continuous strategic choices of capacity based on their private information about own costs and knowledge of the distribution of competitors’ private information. We evaluate the impact on the market structure and providers’ profits under counterfactual regulatory policies that increase the costs or reduce the payment per unit of capacity. We find that these policies reduce the market capacity as measured by the number of dialysis stations. However, the downward-sloping reaction curve shields some providers from negative profit shocks in certain markets. The paper also has a methodological contribution in that it proposes new estimators for Bayesian games with continuous actions.
Abstract Regulations curbing the entry of large retail stores have been introduced in many countries to protect independent retailers. Analyzing a planning reform launched in the United Kingdom in the 1990s, I show that independent retailers were actually harmed by the creation of entry barriers against large stores. This is because the entry barriers created the incentive for large retail chains to invest in smaller and more centrally located formats, which competed more directly with independents and accelerated their decline. Overall, these findings suggest that restricting the entry of large stores may exert negative competitive effects on independent retailers.
Abstract We investigate the success of legislation aimed at increasing competition at highly concentrated U.S. airports, mainly by forcing these airports to increase the availability of scarce facilities. We use a multidimensional regression-discontinuity approach to exploit a sharp discontinuity in the law’s implementation and identify its effects. We find that fares decrease by 13.4% (20.2%) in markets with one (both) end point(s) covered. Approximately half of the decline is driven by the entry of low-cost carriers. We find little evidence that the fare declines were accompanied by a diminished quality of service, and passenger volumes increased, which suggests the legislation improved consumer welfare.
Abstract We show that very large firms shape country export patterns. Among 32 countries, the top firm on average accounts for 14% of a country’s total (nonoil) exports, and the top five firms make up 30%. These export superstars are also important in the sectoral distribution of exports. Variation in exports from the top firm in a country explains about one-third of the variation in sectoral exports relative to income across countries, and variation in exports from the top five firms explains nearly half. Revealed comparative advantage in a sector can be created by a single firm.
Abstract This paper presents theory and evidence from disaggregated Chinese data that tariff reductions induce a country’s producers to upgrade the quality of their exports. We first document stylized facts regarding the effect of trade liberalization on export prices. Next, we develop an analytic framework that relates a firm’s choice of quality to its access to imported intermediates. In the model, a reduction in import tariffs induces a firm to increase export quality and raise its export price in industries where the scope for quality differentiation is large and lower its export price in industries where the scope is small. The predictions are consistent with the stylized facts and are highly robust econometrically.
Abstract Climate policy has favored costly measures that implicitly or explicitly subsidize lowcarbon fuels.We simulate four transportation sector policies: cap and trade (CAT), ethanol subsidies, a renewable fuel standard (RFS), and a lowcarbon fuel standard. Our simulations confirm that alternatives to CAT are 2.5 to 4 times more costly but are amenable to adoption due to right-skewed distributions of gains. We analyze voting on the Waxman-Markey (WM) CAT bill. Conditional on a district’s CAT gains, a district’s RFS gains are negatively correlated with the likelihood of voting for WM. Our analysis supports campaign contributions as a partial mechanism.
Abstract Regression discontinuity models are commonly used to nonparametrically identify and estimate a local average treatment effect (LATE).We show that the derivative of the treatment effect with respect to the running variable at the cutoff, referred to as the treatment effect derivative (TED), is nonparametrically identified, easily estimated, and has implications for testing external validity and extrapolating the estimated LATE away from the cutoff. Given a local policy invariance assumption, we further show this TED equals the change in the treatment effect that would result from a marginal change in the threshold, which we call the marginal threshold treatment effect (MTTE). We apply these results to Goodman (2008), who estimates the effect of a scholarship program on college choice. MTTE in this case identifies how this treatment effect would change if the test score threshold to qualify for a scholarship were changed, even though no such change in threshold is actually observed.
Abstract We exploit daylight saving time (DST) as an exogenous shock to daylight, using both the discontinuous nature of the policy and the 2007 extension of DST, to consider the impact of light on criminal activity. Regression discontinuity estimates show a 7% decrease in robberies following the shift to DST. As expected, effects are largest during the hours directly affected by the shift in daylight. We discuss our findings within the context of criminal decision making and labor supply, and estimate that the 2007 DST extension resulted in $59 million in annual social cost savings from avoided robberies.
Abstract Many economists believe knowledge production generates positive spillovers among knowledge producers. The available evidence, however, is mixed. We argue that spillovers can exist along three dimensions: idea, geographic, and collaboration space. To isolate the key channel through which knowledge spills over, we use a unique data set to examine the impact of a large post-1992 exodus of Soviet mathematicians on the output of the nonémigrés. Although the data reveal strong competitive effects in idea space, there is evidence of knowledge spillovers in collaboration space, when high-quality researchers directly engage with other researchers in the joint production of new knowledge.
Abstract To what extent does “false science” affect the rate and direction of scientific change? We examine the impact of over 1,100 scientific retractions on the citation trajectories of articles that are related to retracted papers in intellectual space but were published prior to the retraction event. Following retraction and relative to carefully selected controls, related articles experience a lasting 5% to 10% decline in the rate of citations received. This penalty is more severe when the retracted article involves fraud or misconduct rather than honest mistakes. In addition, we find that the arrival rate of new articles and funding flows into these fields decrease after a retraction.
Abstract Increasing the efficiency of the school system is a primary focus of policymakers. I analyze how the time of day affects students’ productivity and if efficiency gains can be obtained by rearranging the order of tasks they perform throughout the school day. Using a panel data set of nearly 2 million sixth- through eleventh-grade students in Los Angeles County, I perform within-teacher, class type, and student estimation of the time-of-day effect on students’ learning as measured by GPA and state test scores. I find that given a school start time, students learn more in the morning than later in the school day. Having a morning instead of afternoon math or English class increases a student’s GPA by 0.072 (0.006) and 0.032 (0.006), respectively. A morning math class increases state test scores by an amount equivalent to increasing teacher quality by one-fourth standard deviation or half of the gender gap. Rearranging school schedules can lead to increased academic performance.
Abstract We use staggered banking deregulation across states in the United States to examine the impact of the resulting increased credit supply on college enrollment from the 1970s to the early 1990s. Our research design produces estimates that are not confounded by wealth effects due to changes in income or housing wealth. We find that lifting banking restrictions raises college enrollment by about 2.6 percentage points (4.9%). We rule out alternative interpretations by examining results for different income groups and bankrupt households. We also find similar effects for two-year or four-year college completion and supporting evidence in household educational borrowing.
Abstract This paper examines the impact of exposure to foreign media on the economic behavior of agents in a totalitarian regime. We study private consumption choices focusing on the former East Germany, where differential access to Western television was determined by geographic features. Using data collected after the transition to a market economy, we find no evidence of a significant impact of previous exposure to Western television on aggregate consumption levels. However, exposure to Western broadcasts affects the composition of consumption, biasing choices in favor of categories of goods with a high intensity of prereunification advertisement. The effects vanish by 1998.
Abstract Do consumers boycott in response to international conflict? We show that during the 2003 U.S.–France dispute over the Iraq War, the market share of French-sounding, U.S. supermarket brands declined. The dispute was a negative shock to U.S. consumers’ associations with France. French-sounding brands, which consumers perceive to be French imports but are not, allow us to isolate the dispute’s effect on economic behavior, as these brands’ only link to France is through consumers’ associations. Our estimates, derived from a nationwide sample of weekly supermarket sales for over 8,000 brands, are robust to a variety of alternate explanations. We also show that supermarkets with a higher proportion of customers who are U.S. citizens (i.e., who more strongly identify with the U.S. national identity) exhibited sharper boycotts.
Abstract This study analyzes the circumstances that enabled France to become in the late nineteenth century the first stable parliamentary democracy with universal (male) suffrage in Europe. It establishes a causal relationship between short-term variations in local income and the electoral support for the coalition of republican parties that represented the newly established regime. The results suggest the republican coalition won the parliamentary elections because most French regions did not suffer from transitory negative income shocks stemming from heavy precipitations. They thus raise questions about the rationality of voters and, ultimately, the actual causes of the consolidation of democracy in France.
Abstract Suppose estimating a model on each of a small number of potentially heterogeneous clusters yields approximately independent, unbiased, and Gaussian parameter estimators. We make two contributions in this setup. First, we show how to compare a scalar parameter of interest between treatment and control units using a two-sample t-statistic, extending previous results for the one-sample t-statistic. Second, we develop a test for the appropriate level of clustering; it tests the null hypothesis that clustered standard errors from a much finer partition are correct. We illustrate the approach by revisiting empirical studies involving clustered, time series, and spatially correlated data.
Abstract We verify whether parameter-driven and observation-driven classes of dynamic models can outperform each other in predicting time-varying parameters. We consider existing and new dynamic models for counts and durations, but also for volatility, intensity, and dependence parameters. In an extended Monte Carlo study, we present evidence that observation-driven models based on the score of the predictive likelihood function have similar predictive accuracy compared to their correctly specified parameter-driven counterparts. Dynamic observation-driven models based on predictive score updating outperform models based on conditional moments updating. Our main findings are supported by the results from an extensive empirical study in volatility forecasting.
Abstract We discuss the tension between “what we can get” (identification) and “what we want” (parameters of interest) in models of policy choice (treatment assignment). Our nonstandard empirical object of interest is the ranking of counterfactual policies. Partial identification of treatment effects maps into a partial welfare ranking of treatment assignment policies. We characterize the identified ranking and show how the identifiability of the ranking depends on identifying assumptions, the feasible policy set, and distributional preferences. An application to the project STAR experiment illustrates this dependence. This paper connects the literatures on partial identification, robust statistics, and choice under Knightian uncertainty.
Abstract This paper analyzes the extent to which tax differences affect the use of trade credit. U.S.-owned affiliates in low-tax countries use trade credit to lend, whereas those in high-tax countries use trade credit to borrow: 10% lower local tax rates are associated with net trade credit positions that are 1.4% higher as a fraction of sales. The use of trade credit to get capital out of low-tax, low-return environments is also illustrated by the temporary repatriation tax holiday in 2005, which was used most intensively by affiliates with positive net trade credit positions.
Abstract Are differences in local banking development long lasting? Do they affect economic performance? I answer these questions by relying on a historical development that occurred in Italian cities during the Renaissance. A change in Catholic doctrine led to the development of modern banks in cities hosting Jewish communities. Using Jewish demography in 1500 as an instrument, I provide evidence of extraordinary persistence in the level of banking development across Italian cities and substantial effects of local banks on per capita income. Additional firm-level analyses suggest that banks exert large effects on aggregate productivity by reallocating resources toward more efficient firms.
Abstract We estimate a Stock/Watson index of economic activity to assess U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867. We replicate the Great Moderation of the 1980s and 1990s and find exceptionally low volatility also in the Golden Age of the 1960s. Postwar moderation relative to pre-1914 occurs under constant but not time-varying factor loadings, suggesting structural change toward more volatile sectors. For comparable series, the U.S. postwar business cycle was as volatile overall as under the Classical Gold Standard, but much less so during the Great Moderation and the Golden Age.
Abstract This paper investigates the impact of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on technological change, exploiting installations level inclusion criteria to estimate the System’s causal impact on firms’ patenting. We find that the EU ETS has increased low-carbon innovation among regulated firms by as much as 10%, while not crowding out patenting for other technologies. We also find evidence that the EU ETS has not affected patenting beyond the set of regulated companies. These results imply that the EU ETS accounts for nearly a 1% increase in European low-carbon patenting compared to a counterfactual scenario.
Abstract We specify and estimate a dynamic game to study the equilibrium relationship between market structure and innovation in the automobile industry. The quality of each firm’s product for the average consumer, the key state variable, is modeled as stochastically increasing in innovation, the dynamic control, which is proxied by patent applications. Equilibrium innovation is a function of market structure, the vector of quality levels of all active firms, and the cost of R&D. Our main findings are as follows: (a) optimal innovation has an inverted-U shape in own quality; (b) holding own quality constant, innovation is declining in average rival quality but increasing in quality dispersion; and (c) following entry, each incumbent’s innovation declines, but aggregate innovation increases in most market structures. These findings are broadly consistent with the Schumpeterian hypothesis that market power leads to more innovation.
Abstract This study is the first to estimate the effect of war service in the Global War on Terrorism on domestic violence. We exploit a natural experiment in overseas deployment assignment among active-duty servicemen by relying on theoretical and empirical evidence that, conditional on military rank and occupation, deployment assignments are orthogonal to the propensity for violence. Our results show that assignment to combat substantially increases the probability of intimate partner violence and child abuse. Descriptive evidence suggests that the effects may be explained in part by the stress- and substance use–related consequences of war.
Abstract Grogger and Ridgeway (2006) use the daylight saving time shift to develop a police racial profiling test that is based on differences in driver race visibility and (hence) the race distribution of traffic stops across daylight and darkness. However, urban environments may be well lit at night, eroding the power of their test. We refine their test using streetlight location data in Syracuse, New York, and the results change in the direction of finding profiling of black drivers. Our preferred specification suggests that the odds of a black driver being stopped (relative to nonblack drivers) increase 15% in daylight compared to darkness.
Abstract We exploit a sudden shock to demand for a subset of low-wage workers generated by the 2005 Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) program in San Antonio, Texas, to identify the effects of localized economic development on crime. We use a difference-in-differences methodology that takes advantage of variation in BRAC’s impact over time and across neighborhoods. We find that appropriative criminal behavior increases in neighborhoods where a fraction of residents experienced increases in earnings. This effect is driven by residents who were unlikely to be BRAC beneficiaries, implying that criminal opportunities are important in explaining patterns of crime.
Abstract We provide the first experimental estimation of the effects of the supply of publicly financed urban infrastructure on property values. Using random allocation of first-time street asphalting of residential streets located in peripheral neighborhoods in Mexico, we show that within two years of the intervention, households are able to transform their increased property wealth into significantly larger rates of vehicle ownership, household appliances, and home improvements. Increased consumption is made possible by both credit use and less saving. A cost-benefit analysis indicates that the valuation of street asphalting as capitalized into property values is about as large as construction costs.
Abstract We exploit the construction and eventual demise of the colonial railroads in Ghana, and most of the rest of Africa, to study the impact of transportation investments in poor countries. Using new data on railroads and cities spanning over one century, we find that railroads had large effects on the distribution of economic activity during the colonial period and these effects have persisted to date, although railroads collapsed and road networks expanded considerably after independence. Initial transportation investments may thus have large effects in poor countries. As countries develop, increasing returns solidify their spatial distribution, and subsequent investments may have smaller effects.
Abstract We estimate the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption (IES) using a preannounced increase in Japan’s consumption tax rate. Because this tax is highly comprehensive, the rate increase was announced prior to its implementation, and because other factors that affect the real interest rate were constant, the tax rate increase presents an ideal natural experiment to estimate the IES. A Japanese monthly household survey is exploited to accurately categorize nondurables, and our empirical specification addresses intratemporal substitution bias. We find that the IES is 0.21 and not significantly different from 0, but it is significantly less than 1.
Abstract An approximate factor model of high dimension has two key features. First, the idiosyncratic errors are correlated and heteroskedastic over both the cross-section and time dimensions; the correlations and heteroskedasticities are of unknown forms. Second, the number of variables is comparable or even greater than the sample size. Thus, a large number of parameters exist under a high-dimensional approximate factor model. Most widely used approaches to estimation are principal component based. This paper considers the maximum likelihood–based estimation of the model. Consistency, rate of convergence, and limiting distributions are obtained under various identification restrictions. Monte Carlo simulations show that the likelihood method is easy to implement and has good finite sample properties.
Abstract The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter is a commonly used tool in macroeconomics used to extract a trend component from a time series. In this paper, we derive a new representation of the transformation of the data that is implied by the HP filter. This representation highlights that the HP filter is a symmetric weighted average plus a number of adjustments that are important near the beginning and end of the sample. The representation allows us to carry out a rigorous analysis of properties of the HP filter without using the ARMA-based approximation that has been used previously in the literature. Using this new representation, we characterize the large T behavior of the HP filter and find conditions under which it is asymptotically equivalent to a symmetric weighted average with weights independent of sample size. We also find that the cyclical component of the HP filter possesses weak dependence properties when the HP filter is applied to a stationary mixing process, a linear deterministic trend process, or a process with a unit root. This provides the first formal justification of the use of the HP filter as a tool to achieve weak dependence in a time series. In addition, a large smoothing parameter approximation to the HP filter is derived, and using this approximation, we find an alternative justification for the procedure given in Ravn and Uhlig (2002) for adjusting the smoothing parameter for the data frequency.
Abstract This paper examines how risk behavior in the limelight differs from that in anonymity. In two separate experiments, we find that subjects are more risk averse in the limelight. However, risky choices are similarly path dependent in the different treatments. Under both limelight and anonymous laboratory conditions, a simple prospect theory model with a path-dependent reference point provides a better explanation for subjects’ behavior than a flexible specification of expected utility theory. In addition, our findings suggest that ambiguity aversion depends on being in the limelight, that passive experience has little effect on risk taking, and that reference points are determined by imperfectly updated expectations.
Abstract Understanding behavioral responses to changes in actual or perceived risk is important because risk-reduction goals can be undermined by risk-compensating behavior. This paper examines the response to new information about the risk of HIV infection. Approximately 1,200 circumcised and uncircumcised men in rural Malawi are randomly informed that male circumcision reduces the HIV transmission rate, predicting asymmetric behavioral responses. We find no evidence that the information induces circumcised men to engage in riskier sex while uncircumcised men practice safer sex in response to the information. There were no significant effects of the information on child circumcisions after one year.
Abstract We investigate the effects of automobile congestion on ambient air pollution and local infant mortality rates using data from California spanning 2002 to 2007. Constructing instrumental variables (IV) using the relationship of traffic, weather conditions, and pollutants, we show that particulate matter, even at modern levels, has large marginal effects on weekly infant mortality rates, especially for premature or low birthweight infants. We also find suggestive evidence of large effects for carbon monoxide, though results are imprecise. Finally, we check estimate sensitivity to nonclassical measurement error in local pollution and show that our IV results are robust to such concerns.
Abstract We study the impact of reductions in interchange fees on payment card services. We find that consumer and merchant acceptance and transaction volumes increased when interchange fees were reduced. Our results suggest that a 10% reduction in the rate of decline per quarter in the average interchange fee by an acquirer resulted in a rate of increase in merchant acceptance per quarter of up to 1.4%. In addition, a 10% increase in the rate of interaction of merchant acceptance and the total number of cards increased the rate of quarterly issuer transaction volumes up to 1.7%.
Abstract Modern growth theory puts invention on the center stage. Inventions are created by individuals, raising the question of whether we can increase the number of inventors. To answer this question, we study the causal effect of MSc engineering education on invention, using data on U.S. patents’ Finnish inventors and the distance to the nearest technical university as an instrument. We find a positive effect of engineering education on the propensity to patent and a negative OLS bias. Our counterfactual calculation suggests that establishing three new technical universities resulted in a 20% increase in the number of USPTO patents by Finnish inventors.
Abstract This paper asks whether being located outside the United States lowers research productivity in a data set of foreign-born, U.S.-educated scientists. Instrumenting location with visa status that requires return to home countries, we find a large negative relationship between non-U.S. location and research output for countries with low income per capita but none for countries with high income per capita. This suggests that a scientist exogenously located in a country at the top of the income distribution can expect to be as productive in research as he or she would be in the United States.
Abstract We study the role of labor inputs in religious attendance using data on Oklahoma Methodist congregations from 1961 to 2003. Pastors play a significant role in church growth: replacing a 25th percentile pastor with a 75th percentile one increases annual attendance growth by 3%. A pastor’s performance in his or her first church (largely the result of random assignment) predicts future performance, suggesting a causal effect of pastors on growth. The deployment of pastors by the church indicates efficient use of labor: low-performing pastors are more likely to be rotated or exit the sample, and high-performing pastors are moved to larger congregations.
Abstract Political regimes influence the content of education and criteria used to select and evaluate students.We study the impact of a socialist education on the likelihood of obtaining a college degree and on several labor market outcomes by exploiting the reorganization of the school system in East Germany after reunification. Our identification strategy uses cutoff birth dates for school enrollment that lead to variation in the length of exposure to the socialist education system within the same birth cohort. An additional year of socialist education decreases the probability of obtaining a college degree and affects longer-term labor market outcomes for men.
Abstract Opinion polls and other surveys are used to capture public sentiments on a variety of issues. If citizens are unwilling to reveal certain policy preferences to others, surveys may fail to characterize population preferences accurately. The innovation of this paper is to use unique data that allow one to measure biases in surveyed preferences for a broad range of public policies. I combine data on 184 referenda held in Switzerland between 1987 and 2007 with postballot surveys that ask how the citizens voted for each proposal. The difference between stated preferences in the survey and revealed preferences at the ballot box provides a direct measure of survey bias. I find that these biases vary by policy area, with the largest occurring in policies on immigration, international integration, and votes involving liberal or conservative attitudes. Also, citizens show a tendency to respond in accordance with the majority.
Abstract Corruption estimates rely largely on self-reports of affected individuals and officials. Yet survey respondents are often reticent to tell the truth about sensitive subjects, leading to downward biases in surveybased corruption estimates. This paper develops a method to estimate the prevalence of reticent behavior and reticence-adjusted rates of corruption using survey responses to sensitive questions. A statistical model captures how respondents answer a combination of conventional and randomresponse questions, allowing identification of the effect of reticence. GMM and maximum likelihood estimates are obtained for ten countries. Adjusting for reticence dramatically alters the perceptions of the extent of corruption.
Abstract This paper examines an unintended response to the one-child policy in China: births of twins. Analysis of population census data shows that the one-child policy has accounted for more than one-third of the increase in the reported births of twins since the 1970s. Investigation using birth spacing with prior births and height difference within twins suggests that the increase in the birth of twins is partly due to parents reporting regularly spaced children as twins to avoid the policy violation punishment. The study highlights the possibility of individual behavioral response to undesirable government policies and the potential social consequences.
Abstract This paper models how to use widely available data on wages and housing costs to infer land rents, local productivity, and the total value of local amenities in the presence of federal taxes and locally produced nontraded goods. I apply the model to U.S. metropolitan areas with the aid of visually intuitive graphs. The results improve measures of productivity and feature large differences in land rents. Wage and housing cost differences across metropolitan areas are accounted for more by productivity than quality-of-life differences. Regressions using individual amenities reveal that the most productive and valuable cities are typically coastal, sunny, mild, educated, and large.
Abstract This study examines the impact of a randomized experiment in Jordan in which female community college graduates were assigned to receive a wage subsidy voucher. The wage voucher led to a 38 percentage point increase in employment in the short run, but the average effect is much smaller and no longer statistically significant after the voucher period has expired. The extra job experience gained as a result of the wage subsidy does not provide a stepping-stone to new jobs for these recent graduates, which appears to be due to productivity levels not rising above a binding minimum wage.
Abstract Using a unique, randomized information experiment embedded in a survey, this paper investigates how consumers’ inflation expectations respond to new information. We find that respondents, on average, update their expectations in response to (certain types of) information, and do so sensibly, in a manner consistent with Bayesian updating. As a result of information provision, the distribution of inflation expectations converges toward its center and cross-sectional disagreement declines. We document heterogeneous information processing by gender and present suggestive evidence of respondents forecasting under asymmetric loss. Our results provide support for expectation-formation models in which agents form expectations rationally but face information constraints.
Abstract We introduce a new measure of how close a set of choices is to satisfying the observable implications of rationality and apply it to a large, balanced panel of household level consumption data. This new measure, the minimum cost index, is the minimum cost of breaking all revealed preference cycles found in choices from budget sets. Unlike existing measures of rationality, it responds to both the number and severity of revealed preference violations.
Abstract In this paper, we investigate the use of interactive effect or linear factor models in regional policy evaluation. We contrast treatment effect estimates obtained using Bai (2009) with those obtained using difference in differences and synthetic controls (Abadie and coauthors). We show that difference in differences are generically biased, and we derive support conditions for synthetic controls. We construct Monte Carlo experiments to compare these estimation methods in small samples. As an empirical illustration, we provide an evaluation of the impact on local unemployment of an enterprise zone policy implemented in France in the 1990s.
Abstract It is well established in the literature that financial development (FD) is conducive to growth, and yet the channels through which FD affects growth are not well understood. Using a unique new panel data set for 21 OECD countries over the past 140 years, this paper examines the extent to which FD transmits to growth through ideas production, savings, fixed investment, and schooling. Unionization and agricultural share are used as instruments for FD. The empirical results show that FD influences growth through all four channels. In particular, ideas production is found to be the most important channel through which FD affects growth.
Abstract We study theoretically and empirically whether natural resource windfalls affect political regimes. We show that windfalls have no effect on democracies, while they have heterogeneous political consequences in autocracies. In deeply entrenched autocracies, the effect of windfalls is virtually nil, while in moderately entrenched autocracies, windfalls significantly exacerbate the autocratic nature of the political system. To frame the empirical work, we present a simple model in which political incumbents choose the degree of political contestability and potential challengers decide whether to try to unseat the incumbents. The model uncovers a mechanism for the asymmetric impact of resource windfalls on democracies and autocracies, as well as the the differential impact within autocracies.
Abstract We consider the link between poverty and subjective wellbeing and focus in particular on potential adaptation to poverty. We use panel data on almost 54,000 individuals living in Germany from 1985 to 2012 to show, first, that life satisfaction falls with both the incidence and intensity of contemporaneous poverty. We then reveal that there is little evidence of adaptation within a poverty spell: poverty starts bad and stays bad in terms of subjective well-being. We cannot identify any cause of poverty entry that explains the overall lack of poverty adaptation.
Abstract We examine how the confluence of competition and upstream innovation influences downstream firms’ profit-maximizing strategies. We focus on personal computers and use two novel data sets to describe the dramatic fall in both price (27% at an annual rate) and sales of a computer over its product cycle. Further, we document that computers are typically sold for only four months before being replaced by a higher-quality product. To explain these facts, we develop and calibrate a vintage capital model that combines a competitive market structure with an exogenous rapid rate of innovation.
Abstract We find using laboratory experiments that primes that make religion salient cause subjects to identify more with their religion and affect their economic choices. The effect on choices varies by religion. For example, priming causes Protestants to increase contributions to public goods, whereas Catholics decrease contributions to public goods, expect others to contribute less to public goods, and become less risk averse. A simple model implies that priming effects reveal the sign of the marginal impact of religious norms on preferences. We find no evidence of religious priming effects on disutility of work effort, discount rates, or dictator game generosity.
Abstract I estimate the effect of removing children with disabilities from Supplemental Security Income (SSI) on parental earnings and household disability receipt. Using administrative data from the Social Security Administration (SSA), I implement regression discontinuity and differencein- differences designs based on changes in SSA's budget for child medical reviews. I find that parents fully offset the SSI loss with increased earnings, and the loss of the child's SSI payment reduces disability applications by parents and siblings but does not reduce their actual disability receipt. I examine alternative hypotheses for the large parental earnings response.
Abstract We assess the case for generous government-funded maternity leave, focusing on a series of policy reforms in Norway that expanded paid leave from 18 to 35 weeks. We find the reforms do not crowd out unpaid leave and that mothers spend more time at home without a reduction in family income. The increased maternity leave has little effect on children's schooling, parental earnings and labor force participation, completed fertility, marriage, or divorce. The expansions, whose net costs amounted to 0.25% of GDP, have negative redistribution properties and imply a considerable increases in taxes at a cost to economic efficiency.
Abstract Between 2000 and 2010, five U.S. states adopted mandates requiring high school juniors to take a college entrance exam. In the two earliest-adopting states, nearly half of all students were induced into testing, and 40% to 45% of them earned scores high enough to qualify for selective colleges. Selective enrollment rose by 20% following implementation of the mandates, reflecting substitution away from noncompetitive schools. I conclude that a large number of high-ability students appear to dramatically underestimate their candidacy for selective colleges. Policies aimed at reducing this information shortage are likely to increase human capital investment for a substantial number of students.
Abstract This paper proposes consistent testing methods for examining the effect of a policy treatment on the whole distribution of a response outcome within the setting of a regression discontinuity design. These methods are particularly useful when a policy is expected to produce treatment effects that are heterogeneous along some unobserved characteristics. The test statistics are Kolmogorov-Smirnov-type and are asymptotically distribution free when the data are i.i.d. The proposed tests are applied to three seminal RD studies (Pop-Eleches & Urquiola, 2013; Abdulkadiroglu, Angrist, & Pathak, 2014; and Battistin et al., 2009).
Abstract We study the properties of heteroskedasticity-robust confidence intervals for regression parameters. We show that confidence intervals based on a degrees-of-freedom correction suggested by Bell and McCaffrey (2002) are a natural extension of a principled approach to the Behrens-Fisher problem. We suggest a further improvement for the case with clustering. We show that these standard errors can lead to substantial improvements in coverage rates even for samples with fifty or more clusters.We recommend that researchers routinely calculate the Bell-McCaffrey degrees-of-freedom adjustment to assess potential problems with conventional robust standard errors.
Abstract Multinational firms with operations in high-tax countries can benefit the most from reallocating taxable income to tax havens, though this is sufficiently difficult and costly that only 20.4% of German multinational firms have any tax haven affiliates. Among German manufacturing firms, a 1 percentage point higher foreign tax rate is associated with a 2.3% greater likelihood of owning a tax haven affiliate. This is consistent with tax avoidance incentives and contrasts with earlier evidence for U.S. firms. The relationship is less strong for firms in service industries, possibly reflecting the difficulty of reallocating taxable service income.
Abstract Using U.S. Census data for 1990 to 2000, we estimate effects of NAFTAon U.S.wages.We look for effects of the agreement by industry and by geography, measuring each industry's vulnerability to Mexican imports and each locality's dependence on vulnerable industries. We find evidence of both effects, dramatically lowering wage growth for blue-collar workers in the most affected industries and localities (even for service-sector workers in affected localities, whose jobs do not compete with imports). These distributional effects are much larger than aggregate welfare effects estimated by other authors.
Abstract We consider constructing probability forecasts from a parametric binary choice model under a large family of loss functions (“scoring rules”). Scoring rules are weighted averages over the utilities that heterogeneous decision makers derive from a publicly announced forecast (Schervish, 1989). Using analytical and numerical examples, we illustrate howdifferent scoring rules yield asymptotically identical results if the model is correctly specified. Under misspecification, the choice of scoring rule may be inconsequential under restrictive symmetry conditions on the data-generating process. If these conditions are violated, typically the choice of a scoring rule favors some decision makers over others.
Abstract We quantify the effects of lending and balance sheet channels on corporate investment during large devaluations. We find that if currency crises are accompanied by banking crises, domestic exporters holding unhedged foreign currency debt decrease investment while foreign exporters with better access to credit increase investment despite their unhedged foreign currency debt. We do not find such a differential effect under pure currency crises. Using firm-bank matched data during the global financial crisis, we showthat both domestic and foreign-owned firms experienced a decline in bank credit from affected banks; however, foreign-owned firms substituted the lost credit.
Abstract This paper examines empirically whether the measurement of trend inflation can be improved by using disaggregated data on sectoral inflation to construct indexes akin to core inflation but with a time-varying distributed lags of weights, where the sectoral weight depends on the timevarying volatility and persistence of the sectoral inflation series and on the comovement among sectors. The modeling framework is a dynamic factor model with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility as in Del Negro and Otrok (2008), and is estimated using U.S. data on seventeen components of the personal consumption expenditure inflation index.
Abstract We consider the revision properties of Federal Reserve Board staff estimates of the output gap after the mid-1990s and examine the usefulness of these estimates for inflation forecasting. Over this period, we find that the Federal Reserve's output gap is more reliably estimated in real time than previous studies have documented for earlier periods and alternative estimation techniques. In contrast to previous work, we also find no deterioration in forecast performance when inflation projections are conditioned on real-time rather than on final estimates of the output gap.
Abstract New indicators, based on technology titles, are used to measure the impact of innovative activity on the U.S. labor market between 1909 and 1949. We find that positive technology shocks raised productivity, employment, vacancies, and labor turnover and lowered unemployment and business failures. Moreover, automotive and electrical innovations (quintessential general-purpose technologies) had a greater positive impact on employment than those in mechanical innovations. The overall results, compatible with the predictions of the real business cycle model, raise questions about the anemic recovery in employment after 1934 since the strong upsurge in technical change failed to be accompanied by vigorous job expansion.
Abstract I examine the role of human and physical capital for the creation of scientific knowledge. I address the endogeneity of human and physical capital with two exogenous shocks: the dismissal of scientists in Nazi Germany and World War II bombings. A 10% shock to human capital reduced output by 0.2 SD in the short run, and the reduction persisted in the long run. A 10% shock to physical capital reduced output by 0.05 SD in the short run, and the reduction did not persist. The dismissal of star scientists caused much larger reductions in output because they are key for attracting other successful scientists.
Abstract We propose the rise of crack cocaine markets as a key explanation for the end to the convergence in black-white educational outcomes in the United States that began in the mid-1980s. After constructing a measure to date the arrival of crack markets in cities and states, we show that the decline in educational outcomes for black males begins with the start of the crack epidemic. We also show that there are higher murder and incarceration rates after the arrival of crack cocaine and that these are predictive of lower black high school completion rates, a result consistent with human capital theory. We estimate that effects related to crack markets can account for approximately 40% to 70% of the fall in black male high school completion rates.
Abstract We study the impact of accountability pressure in Texas public high schools in the 1990s on postsecondary attainment and earnings, using administrative data from the Texas Schools Project. Schools respond to the risk of being rated Low Performing by increasing student achievement on high-stakes exams. Years later, these students are more likely to have attended college and completed a four-year degree, and they have higher earnings at age 25. However, we find no overall impact of accountability pressure to achieve a higher rating, and large negative impacts on attainment and earnings for the lowest-scoring students.
Abstract We document that nonrich households consume a larger share of their current income when exposed to higher top income and consumption levels. Permanent income, wealth effects, and upward local price pressures cannot provide the sole explanation for this finding. Instead, we show that the budget shares that nonrich households allocate to more visible goods and services rise with top income levels, consistent with status-maintaining explanations for our primary finding. Nonrich households might have saved up to 3% more annually by the mid-2000s had incomes at the top grown at the same rate as median income since the early 1980s.
Abstract This paper explores the effects of changes in lending standards on racial segregation within metropolitan areas. Such changes affect neighborhood choices as well as aggregate prices and quantities in the housing market. Using the credit boom of 2000 to 2006 as a large-scale experiment, we put forward an IV strategy that predicts the relaxation of credit standards as the result of a credit supply shock predominantly affecting liquidity-constrained banks. The relaxed lending standards led to significant outflows of whites from black and racially mixed neighborhoods. Without such a credit supply shock, black households would have had between 2.3 and 5.1 percentage points more white neighbors in 2010.
Abstract We compare the twelve-month default probability among subprime borrowers differing only in the number of months before their first lump-sum property tax payment, after which time they may be exposed to reduced liquidity. We show that borrowers with an earlier property tax bill—within three months of origination—have 2% to 6% higher first-year default rates than borrowers facing their first property tax bill ten to twelve months after origination. Lump-sum property tax payments appear to produce a persistent state of low liquidity, the length of which raises the likelihood of default. These results are about one-third the effect size of a transition from 10% positive to 20% negative equity found in the literature. This paper provides causal evidence that liquidity constraints are important predictors of mortgage default.
Abstract We introduce a novel empirical strategy to measure the size of credit shocks. Theoretically, we show that credit shocks reduce the value of long-term relative to short-term investments. Empirically, we can therefore compare the reduction of long-term relative to short-term investments within firms, allowing for firm-times-year fixed effects. Using Spanish firm-level data, we estimate the credit crunch to be equivalent to an additional tax rate of around 11% on the longest-lived capital. To pin down credit constraints as the underlying cause, we apply triple-differences strategies using foreign ownership or precrisis debt maturity.
Abstract We find that more closely related populations are more prone to engage in international conflict with each other. We provide an economic interpretation based on two connected mechanisms. First, more closely related groups share more similar preferences over rival goods and are thus more likely to fight over them. Second, rulers have stronger incentives to conquer populations more similar to their own, to minimize postconflict heterogeneity in preferences over government types and policies. We find support for these mechanisms using evidence on international conflicts over natural endowments and on territorial changes, including decolonization.
Abstract In this paper, we relax the assumption of constant regime-specific mean growth rates in Hamilton's (1989) two-state Markov-switching model of the business cycle. We introduce a random walk hierarchy prior for each regime-specific mean growth rate and impose a cointegrating relationship between the mean growth rates in recessionary and expansionary periods. By applying the proposed model to postwar U.S. real GDP growth (1947:Q4–2011:Q3), we uncover the evolving nature of the regime-specific mean growth rates of real output in the U.S. business cycle. Additional features of the postwar U.S. business cycle that we uncover include a steady decline in the long-run mean growth rate of real output over the postwar sample and an asymmetric error-correction mechanism when the economy deviates from its long-run equilibrium.
Abstract Firmly anchored inflation expectations are widely viewed as playing a central role for the conduct of monetary policy. This paper presents estimates of trend inflation, based on information contained in monthly data on realized inflation, survey expectations, and the term structure of interest rates. In order to assess whether inflation expectations are anchored, a timevarying volatility of trend shocks is estimated as well. While there is some commonality in inflation- and survey-based estimates of trend inflation, yield-based trend estimates embed a highly persistent component orthogonal to trend inflation. Trimmed-mean inflation rates and survey forecasts are most indicative of trend inflation.
Abstract Using an estimated DSGE model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions and allowing for equilibrium indeterminacy, we find that a passive monetary and passive fiscal policy regime prevailed in the pre-Volcker period. This gave rise to self-fulfilling beliefs and unconventional transmission mechanisms of policy shifts: unanticipated increases in interest rates increased inflation and output, while unanticipated increases in lump-sum taxes decreased inflation and output. We show that had the monetary policy regime of the post-Volcker era been in place pre-Volcker, inflation volatility would have been lower by 25% and the rise of inflation in the 1970s would not have occurred.
Abstract In the 1980s and 1990s, the U.S. labor market experienced a remarkable polarization along with fast technological catch-up as Europe and Japan improved their global innovation performance. Is foreign technological convergence an important source of wage polarization? To answer this question, we build a multicountry Schumpeterian growth model with heterogeneous workers, endogenous skill formation, and occupational choice. We show that convergence produces polarization through business stealing and increasing competition in global innovation races. Quantitative analysis shows that these channels can be important sources of U.S. polarization. Moreover, the model delivers predictions on the U.S. wealth-income ratio consistent with empirical evidence.
Abstract We conduct a series of field experiments to evaluate the quality of advice provided by life insurance agents in India. Agents overwhelmingly recommend unsuitable, strictly dominated products that provide high commissions to the agent. Agents cater to the beliefs of uninformed consumers, even when those beliefs are wrong. We also find that agents appear to focus on maximizing the amount of premiums (and therefore their commissions) that customers pay, as opposed to focusing on how much insurance coverage customers need. A natural experiment requiring disclosure of commissions for a specific product results in agents recommending alternative products with high commissions but no disclosure requirement. A follow-up agent survey sheds light on the extent to which poor advice reflects both the commission incentives and agents’ limited product knowledge.
Abstract This paper examines how the allocation of authority within an organization affects workers’ incentives and performance, using personnel data from a Chinese newspaper. Relying on an authority change that transferred the right of making editorial decisions from midlevel editors to top editors in four of the eight divisions in the newspaper, I find that the authority change improves reporters’ performance while reducing their activities for private gain and decreases midlevel editors’ journalistic initiative. To reconcile these findings, a synthesis of two theories on authority and incentives—the vertical and the horizontal allocation of authority—is needed.
Abstract When choices are made from ordered lists, individuals can exhibit biases toward selecting certain options as a result of the ordering. We examine this phenomenon in the context of consumer response to the ordering of economics papers in an e-mail announcement issued by the NBER. We show that despite the effectively random list placement, papers listed first each week are about 30% more likely to be viewed, downloaded, and subsequently cited. We suggest that a model of “skimming” behavior, where individuals focus on the first few papers in the list due to time constraints, would be most consistent with our findings.
Abstract Using unique consumer financial transactions of more than 56,000 consumers, we study the consumption response to a housing policy experiment in Singapore that resulted in a decrease in access to home equity. Using difference-in-differences analysis, we find a significant negative consumption response to the policy shock. Moreover, the consumption response is concentrated in credit card spending and is stronger among individuals with limited access to credit market or with a high precautionary saving motive. These results suggest that a decrease in access to home equity reduces the role of housing as a self-insurance mechanism for consumption smoothing.
Abstract Michigan’s implementation of assessment limits gives rise to a wide variation in taxable basis across comparable homes. Exploiting the fact that the resulting differences in property tax liability are temporarily inherited by new homebuyers, I estimate the degree of capitalization of these largely idiosyncratic tax differences to evaluate whether homebuyers understand the tax implications of their home purchases. Consistent with anecdotal evidence but in stark contrast to the traditional view of rational consumer behavior, I find that homebuyers are woefully inattentive to the temporary nature of their initial tax obligations, resulting in an overpayment of nearly $10,000 for the average home.
Abstract Can a temporary economic shock to an important local industry influence long-run city population? To answer this question I study the large temporary shock to British cities caused by the U.S. CivilWar (1861–1865), which reduced cotton supplies to Britain’s important cotton textile industry. I show that this event temporarily reduced the growth rate of cities specializing in cotton textile production, relative to other English cities, and led to a persistent change in the level of city population.
Abstract Many prior treatments of agglomeration explicitly or implicitly assume that all industries agglomerate for the same reasons. This paper uses U.K. establishment-level coagglomeration data to document substantial heterogeneity across industries in the microfoundations of agglomeration economies. It finds robust evidence of organizational and adaptive agglomeration forces as discussed by Chinitz (1961), Vernon (1960), and Jacobs (1969). These forces interact with the traditional Marshallian (1890) factors of input sharing, labor pooling, and knowledge spillovers, establishing a previously unrecognized complementarity between the approaches of Marshall and Jacobs, as well as others, to the analysis of agglomeration.
Abstract We provide the first evaluation of the effect of the U.S. minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) on nonfatal injuries. Using administrative records from several states and a regression discontinuity approach, we document that inpatient hospital admissions and emergency department (ED) visits increase by 8.4 and 71.3 per 10,000 person-years, respectively, at age 21. These effects are due mainly to an increase in the rate at which young men experience accidental injuries, alcohol overdoses, and injuries inflicted by others. Our results suggest that the literature’s disproportionate focus on mortality leads to a significant underestimation of the benefits of tighter alcohol control.
Abstract This paper investigates how collusion between regulators and firms affects workplace safety using the case of China’s coal mine deaths. We argue that decentralization makes collusion more likely and that its effect is strengthened if the transaction costs of collusion are lower. These hypotheses are tested by investigating the impact of decentralization contingent on regulators’ characteristics. Exploring both decentralization and centralization reforms in the coal mine industry, we find that decentralization is correlated with an increase in coal mine death rates. Moreover, this increase in mortality is larger for the regulators with lower transaction costs (proxied by the locality of origin).
Abstract Spending on big-time college athletics is often justified on the grounds that athletic success attracts students and raises donations. We exploit data on bookmaker spreads to estimate the probability of winning each game for college football teams. We then condition on these probabilities using a propensity score design to estimate the effects of winning on donations, applications, and enrollment. The resulting estimates represent causal effects under the assumption that, conditional on bookmaker spreads, winning is uncorrelated with potential outcomes. We find that winning reduces acceptance rates and increases donations, applications, academic reputation, in-state enrollment, and incoming SAT scores.
Abstract This paper studies the relationship between public debt expansion and economic growth and investigates whether the debt-growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness. We contribute theoretically by developing tests for threshold effects in the context of dynamic heterogeneous panel data models with cross-sectionally dependent errors. In the empirical application, using data on a sample of forty countries over the 1965–2010 period, we find no evidence for a universally applicable threshold effect in the relationship between public debt and economic growth. Regardless of the threshold, however, we find significant negative effects of public debt buildup on output growth.
Abstract We examine the extent to which vertical and horizontal market structure can together explain incomplete retail pass-through. To answer this question, we use scanner data from a large U.S. retailer to estimate product level pass-through for three vertical structures: national brands, private label goods not manufactured by the retailer, and private label goods manufactured by the retailer. Our approach circumvents issues associated with internal firm prices and demonstrates that accounting for horizontal market structure is important for measuring the effects of vertical integration and reduced double marginalization on pass-through.
Abstract Here, I study the effect of state enactment of the Uniform Trade Secrets Act (UTSA) on R&D among U.S. businesses between 1979 and 1998. Using a new index of the legal protection of trade secrets, I find that the UTSA was associated with higher R&D among larger companies and those in high-tech industries. For the average company in the respective industry, the UTSA was associated with 3.2% more R&D in pharmaceuticals and 3.1% more R&D in computers and office equipment, as contrasted with no significant change in soaps and cleaners, and industrial machinery and equipment.
Abstract Previous research found that less accommodating caseworkers are more successful in placing unemployed workers into employment. This paper explores the causal mechanisms behind this result using semi-parametric mediation analysis. Analyzing rich linked job seeker-caseworker data for Switzerland, we find that the positive employment effects of less accommodating caseworkers are not driven by a particularly effective mix of labor market programs but, rather, by other dimensions of the counseling process, possibly including threats of sanctions and pressure to accept jobs.
African elections often reveal low levels of political accountability. We assess different forms of voter education during an                     election in Mozambique. Three interventions providing information to voters and calling for their participation were randomized:                     an information campaign using SMS, an SMS hotline for electoral misconduct, and the distribution of a free newspaper. To measure                     impact, we look at official electoral results, reports by electoral observers, and behavioral and survey data. We find positive                     effects of all treatments on voter turnout. However, only the distribution of the free newspaper led to more accountability-based                     participation and to a decrease in electoral problems.
We use a tailor-made survey on a Swedish sample to investigate how individuals' relative income affects their demand for redistribution. We first document that a majority misperceive their position in the income distribution and believe that they are poorer, relative to others, than they actually are. We then inform a subsample about their true relative income and find that individuals who are richer than they initially thought demand less redistribution. This result is driven by individuals with prior right-of-center political preferences who view taxes as distortive and believe that effort, rather than luck, drives individual economic success.
This paper examines the effects of gunfights between drug gangs in Rio de Janeiro's favelas on student achievement. We explore variation in violence that occurs across time and space when gangs battle over territories. Within-school estimates indicate that students' scores are lower in math in years in which they are exposed to drug battles. The effect increases with conflict intensity, duration, and proximity to exam dates and decreases with the distance between the school and the conflict location. School supply is an important mechanism. Gunfights are associated with higher teacher absenteeism, principal turnover, and temporary school closings.
How does a shock to sex ratios affect marriage markets and fertility? I use the drastic change in sex ratios caused by World War II to identify the effects of unbalanced sex ratios on Russian women. Using unique archival data, the results indicate that male scarcity led to lower rates of marriage and fertility, higher nonmarital births, and reduced bargaining power within marriage for women most affected by war deaths. The impact of sex ratio imbalance on marriage and family persisted for years after the war's end and was likely magnified by policies that promoted nonmarital births and discouraged divorce.
We present new evidence on the evolution of labor mobility in the United States over the past four decades. Building on the seminal methodology by Blanchard and Katz (1992), combined with multiple sources of regional population and migration data, we show that interstate mobility in response to relative labor demand conditions is not as high as previously established and has been weakening since the early 1990s. In addition, we find that mobility is countercyclical: net migration across regions responds more strongly to spatial disparities in recessions than in normal times. While the declining trend in mobility has been driven by weaker out-migration from states experiencing negative relative shocks, the mobility surge in recessions is mostly accounted for by temporarily stronger in-migration to better-performing states.
We document that rotation group bias—the tendency for the unemployment rate to vary systematically by month in sample—in the Current Population Survey (CPS) has worsened over time. Estimated unemployment rates for earlier rotation groups have grown sharply relative to later rotation groups; both should be nationally representative samples. This bias increased discretely after the 1994 CPS redesign, and rising nonresponse rates are likely a significant contributor. Survey nonresponse increased after the redesign, mirroring the evolution of rotation group bias. Consistent with this explanation, rotation group bias for households that responded in all eight interviews remained stable over time.
Decades of campaigns have cautioned households in Bangladesh about waterborne contaminants such as arsenic. In addition to switching water sources, mothers can protect young children from contaminated water by breastfeeding longer. We exploit time series variation in whether children were born before or after a nationwide information campaign and geographic variation in exposure to arsenic. We find that mothers breast-feed children longer in response to the campaign, especially when they have less access to uncontaminated wells, and that infants are more likely to be exclusively breast-fed. We find consistent evidence of lower mortality rates and diarrheal incidence for infants.
In macroeconomic models, the elasticity of substitution between clean and dirty energy inputs within the energy aggregate is a central parameter in assessing the necessary conditions for long-run green growth. Using new sectoral data in a panel of 26 countries, we formulate specifications of nested constant elasticity of substitution production functions that allow estimating this parameter for the first time. We present evidence that it significantly exceeds unity, a favorable condition for promoting green growth.
We present a method for consistent nonparametric estimation of a demand function with nonseparable unobserved taste heterogeneity subject to the shape restriction implied by the Slutsky inequality. We use the method to estimate gasoline demand in the United States. The results reveal differences in behavior between heavy and moderate gasoline users. They also reveal variation in the responsiveness of demand to plausible changes in prices across the income distribution. We extend our estimation method to permit endogeneity of prices. The empirical results illustrate the improvements in finite-sample performance of a nonparametric estimator from imposing shape restrictions based on economic theory.
In this paper, we propose an easy-to-implement procedure to test the key conditions for the identification and estimation of the local average treatment effect (LATE; Imbens & Angrist, 1994). We reformulate the testable implications of LATE assumptions as two conditional inequalities, which can be tested in the intersection bounds framework of Chernozhukov, Lee, and Rosen (2013) and easily implemented using the Stata package of Chernozhukov et al. (2015). We apply the proposed tests to the draft eligibility instrument in Angrist (1991), the college proximity instrument in Card (1993), and the same-sex instrument in Angrist and Evans (1998).
We derive the exact expression for the weights of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter in a finite sample without making any assumptions about the statistical properties of the time series. We use the results to give insights into the properties of the HP filter and to build a fast algorithm with computational improvements by a factor of up to three times in samples typical in economics.
We derive a closed-form expression for the posterior probability of Granger noncausality in a gaussian vector autoregression with a conjugate prior. We also express in closed form the posterior probability of Granger causal priority, a more general relation that accounts for indirect effects between variables and therefore is suitable in a multivariate context. One can use these results to answer the classic question, “Is variable z relevant for variable x?” and to choose variables for a vector autoregression.
Many markets exhibit price dispersion across suppliers of observationally identical goods. Statistical agencies typically assume this dispersion reflects unobserved quality, so standard price indexes do not incorporate price declines when buyers substitute toward lower-price suppliers. We show that long-run price differences across suppliers can be used to infer unobserved quality differences and propose an index that accommodates quality-adjusted price dispersion. Using transaction-level data on contract semiconductor manufacturing, we document substantial quality-adjusted price dispersion and confirm that a standard index is biased above our proposed index.
Using a dynamic factor model that allows for changes in both the long-run growth rate of output and the volatility of business cycles, we document a significant decline in long-run output growth in the United States. Our evidence supports the view that most of this slowdown occurred prior to the Great Recession. We show how to use the model to decompose changes in long-run growth into its underlying drivers. At low frequencies, a decline in the growth rate of labor productivity appears to be behind the recent slowdown in GDP growth for both the United States and other advanced economies. When applied to real-time data, the proposed model is capable of detecting shifts in long-run growth in a timely and reliable manner.
Quantity surcharges occur when retailers carry a product in two sizes and offer a promotion on the small size: the large size then costs more per unit than the small one. When quantity surcharges occur, sales of the large size decline only slightly even though the same quantity can be purchased for less. We document this behavior in two data sets and four product categories. It is consistent with the notion of passive shoppers found in the industrial organization literature and the notion of rational inattention in macroeconomics. We discuss implications for consumer decision making, demand estimation, and firm pricing.
In 2005 an earthquake in northern Pakistan led to a significant inflow of international relief groups. Four years later, trust in Europeans and Americans was markedly higher among those exposed to the earthquake and the relief that followed. These differences reflect the greater provision of foreign aid and foreigner presence in affected villages rather than preexisting population differences or a general impact of disasters on trust. We thus demonstrate large-scale, durable attitudinal change in a representative Muslim population. Trust in Westerners among Muslims is malleable and not a deeply rooted function of preferences or global (as opposed to local) policy and actions.
Developing democracies are experiencing unprecedented increases in primary and secondary schooling. To identify education's long-run political effects, we use a difference-in-differences design that leverages variation across local government areas and gender in the intensity of Nigeria's 1976 universal primary education reform—one of Africa's largest ever educational expansions—to instrument for education. We find large increases in basic civic and political engagement: better educated citizens are more attentive to politics, more likely to vote, and more involved in community associations. The effects are largest among minority groups and in fractionalized areas, without increasing support for political violence or own-group identification.
We argue that a more individualist culture leads to more innovation and to higher growth because of the social status rewards associated with innovation in that culture. We use data on the frequency of particular genes associated with collectivist cultures, as well as a measure of distance in terms of frequencies of blood types, and historic prevalence of pathogens to instrument individualism scores. The relationship between individualism and innovation/growth remains strong even after controlling for institutions and other potentially confounding factors. We also provide evidence consistent with two-way causality between culture and institutions.
We exploit historical data on planned highways, railroads, and exploration routes as sources of exogenous variation in order to estimate the effect of interstate highways on regional innovation: a 10% increase in a region's stock of highways causes a 1.7% increase in regional patenting over a five-year period. In terms of the mechanism, we report evidence that roads facilitate local knowledge flows, increasing the likelihood that innovators access knowledge inputs from local but more distant neighbors. Thus, transportation infrastructure may spur regional growth above and beyond the more commonly discussed agglomeration economies predicated on an inflow of new workers.
We investigate how urban railroad and highway configurations have influenced urban form in Chinese cities since 1990. Each radial highway displaces 4% of central city population to surrounding regions, and ring roads displace about an additional 20%, with stronger effects in the richer coastal and central regions. Each radial railroad reduces central city industrial GDP by about 20%, with ring roads displacing an additional 50%. We provide evidence that radial highways decentralize service sector activity, radial railroads decentralize industrial activity, and ring roads decentralize both. Historical transportation infrastructure provides identifying variation in more recent measures of infrastructure.
Admission practices at high-profile universities are often criticized for undermining academic merit. Popular tests for detecting such biases suffer from omitted characteristic bias. We develop a bounds-based test to circumvent this problem. We assume that students who are better qualified on observableswould, on average, appear academically stronger to admission officers based on unobservables. This assumption reveals the sign of differences in admission standards across demographic groups that are robust to omitted characteristics. Applying our methods to admissions data from a British university, we find higher admission standards for men and slightly higher ones for private school applicants, despite equal admission success probability across gender and school background.
This paper introduces a new estimator for the fixed-effects ordered logit model. The proposed method has two advantages over existing estimators. First, it estimates the differences in the cut points along with the regression coefficient, leading to provide bounds on partial effects. Second, the proposed estimator for the regression coefficient is more efficient. I use the fact that the ordered logit model with J outcomes and T observations can be converted to a binary choice logit model in (J - 1)T ways. As an empirical illustration, I examine the income-health gradient for children using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey.
Empirical models for dyadic interactions between n agents often feature agent-specific parameters. Fixed-effect estimators of such models generally have bias of order n−1, which is nonnegligible relative to their standard error. Therefore, confidence sets based on the asymptotic distribution have incorrect coverage. This paper looks at models with multiplicative unobservables and fixed effects. We derive moment conditions that are free of fixed effects and use them to set up estimators that are n-consistent, asymptotically normally distributed, and asymptotically unbiased. We provide Monte Carlo evidence for a range of models. We estimate a gravity equation as an empirical illustration.
We consider the dynamic factor model where the loading matrix, the dynamic factors, and the disturbances are treated as latent stochastic processes. We present empirical Bayes methods that enable the shrinkagebased estimation of the loadings and factors. We investigate the methods in a large Monte Carlo study where we evaluate the finite sample properties of the empirical Bayes methods for quadratic loss functions. Finally, we present and discuss the results of an empirical study concerning the forecasting of U.S. macroeconomic time series using our empirical Bayes methods.
I report evidence that an anticipated strengthening of environmental policy increased emissions. I find that the breakdown of the U.S. Senate's 2010 climate effort generated positive excess returns in coal futures markets. This response appears to be driven by an increase in coal storage. The proposed legislation aimed to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions after 2013, but the legislative process itself may have increased emissions by over 12 million tons of carbon dioxide leading up to April 2010.
An important disconnect in the news view of fluctuations is the lack of consistent evidence suggestive of significant macroeconomic effects of news shocks. Findings from estimated DSGE models that in theory allow news shocks to matter quantitatively suggest that they do not. This disconnect can be resolved once we augment a DSGE model with a financial channel that provides amplification to news shocks. Our results suggest that news shocks to the future growth prospects of the economy are significant drivers of U.S. fluctuations, explaining as much as 50% and 37% of the variance in hours worked and output, respectively, in cyclical frequencies.
Temporary overseas work can both raise a family's income and split the household geographically, with theoretically ambiguous net effects on spending, finance, and labor supply decisions. We study a policy discontinuity in the Philippines that quasi-randomly assigned temporary, partial-household migration for high-wage jobs inKorea. This allows quasiexperimental estimates of reduced-form effects of migration. We find that migration causes large changes in households' spending and saving—not only through remittances but also migration-induced shifts in household decision-making power. Migration does not reduce labor supply by nonmigrants. Common nonexperimental estimators would have been subject to substantial selection bias in this setting.
In order to measure the effect of tax credits on private R&D investment, researchers confront the difficult problem of finding an exogenous measure of tax policy that exhibits sufficient variation to support robust identification. This paper takes a new approach based on exploiting differences in the average capital-labor ratio of R&D investment across industries and variation in the tax treatment of different expenditure types across countries and over time. The estimated short-run elasticity is 0.50 which is somewhat more than double previous estimates derived from cross-country analysis.
We explore how examiner behavior is altered by the time allocated for reviewing patent applications. Insufficient examination time may hamper examiner search and rejection efforts, leaving examiners more inclined to grant invalid applications. To test this prediction, we use application-level data to trace the behavior of individual examiners over the course of a series of promotions that carry with them reductions in examination time allocations. We find evidence demonstrating that such promotions are associated with reductions in examination scrutiny and increases in granting tendencies, as well as evidence that those additional patents being issued on the margin are of below-average quality.
We present the results of a field experiment conducted at Harvard Medical School to understand the extent to which search costs affect matching among scientific collaborators. We generated exogenous variation in search costs for pairs of potential collaborators by randomly assigning individuals to 90-minute structured information-sharing sessions as part of a grant funding opportunity. We estimate that the treatment increases the probability of grant co-application of a given pair of researchers by 75%. The findings suggest that matching between scientists is subject to considerable friction, even in the case of geographically proximate scientists working in the same institutional context.
We study a field experiment at a large technology company. Employees were encouraged to submit ideas on process and product improvements. The company randomly assigned nineteen teams into treatment and control groups. Treatment team employees received rewards if their ideas were approved. Nothing changed for control team employees. Our main finding is that rewards substantially increased the quality of ideas. Rewards increased participation in the suggestion system but decreased ideas per participating employee, with no net effect on the quantity of ideas. Broader participation persisted after the reward was discontinued, suggesting habituation. We find no evidence for motivational crowding out.
The importance of creativity is being increasingly recognized by economists; however, the possibility that emotional factors determine creative processes is largely ignored. Building on 1,400 letters written by three famous music composers, I obtain well-being indices that span their lifetimes. The validity of this methodology is shown by linking the indices with biographical information and through estimation of the determinants of well-being. I then exploit the data and provide quantitative evidence on the existence of a causal impact of negative emotions on outstanding creativity, an association hypothesized across several disciplines since the antiquity that has not yet been convincingly established.
We evaluate the effect that payday loan access has on credit and labor market outcomes of individuals in the U.S. Army. Using the conditional random assignment of service members to different locations, we employ three identification strategies: cross-sectional variation in state policies, within-term variation in payday lending access, and a difference-in-difference analysis using the national Military Lending Act. We find few adverse effects of payday loan access on service members when using any of these methods, even when we examine dozens of subsamples that explore potential differential treatment effects.
Using data on the age, sex, ethnicity, and criminal involvement of more than 14 million residents of all ages residing in approximately 4,000 Dutch neighborhoods, we test if an individual's criminal involvement is affected by the proportion of criminals living in his or her residential neighborhood. We develop a binomial discrete choice model for criminal involvement and estimate it on individual data. We control for both the endogeneity that may be related to unobserved neighborhood characteristics and for sorting behavior. We find significant social interaction effects, but our findings do not imply multiple equilibria or large multiplier effects.
Policies to correct market power and selection can be misguided when these forces coexist. We build a model of symmetric imperfect competition in selection markets that parameterizes the degree of market power and selection. We use graphical price-theoretic reasoning to characterize the interaction between these forces. Using a calibrated model of health insurance, we show that the risk adjustment commonly used to offset adverse selection can reduce coverage and social surplus. Conversely, in a calibrated model of subprime auto lending, realistic levels of competition can generate an oversupply of credit, implying that greater market power is desirable.
Research as to the size of the black-white test score gap often comes to contradictory conclusions. Recent literature has affirmed that the source of these contradictions and other controversies in education economics may be due to the fact that test scores contain only ordinal information. In this paper, I propose a normalization of test scores that is invariant to monotonic transformations. Under fairly weak assumptions, this metric has interval properties and thus solves the ordinality problem. The measure can serve as a valuable robustness check to ensure that any results are not simply statistical artifacts from the choice of scale.
Missing data are a common challenge facing empirical researchers. This paper presents a general GMM framework and estimator for dealing with missing values of an explanatory variable in linear regression analysis. The GMM estimator is efficient under assumptions needed for consistency of linear-imputation methods. The estimator, which also allows for a specification test of the missingness assumptions, is compared to existing linear imputation, complete data, and dummy variable methods commonly used in empirical research. The dummy variable method is generally inconsistent even when data are missing completely at random, and the dummy variable method, when consistent, can be less efficient than the complete data method.
This paper develops a new approach for measuring the stringency of a major form of land use regulation, building height restrictions, and applies it to an extraordinary data set of land-lease transactions from China. Our theory shows that the elasticity of land price with respect to the floor area ratio (FAR), a building height indicator, is a measure of the regulation's stringency (the extent to which FAR is kept below the free-market level). Using a national sample, estimation allowing this elasticity to be city-specific shows variation in the stringency of FAR regulation across Chinese cities. Single-city estimation for Beijing shows that stringency varies with site characteristics.
The English rule prescribes that the loser of a lawsuit pays the winner's litigation costs. Previous research on the English rule finds that plaintiffs win more often at trial, receive higher awards, and receive larger settlements. Theory predicts that the English rule discourages settlement by raising the threshold payment necessary for settlement. In this paper, we reexamine the Florida experiment with the English rule by placing bounds on the selection effects. We find that the mean and median settlement amount increases. Collectively these findings are consistent with the predictions of the simplest models of the English rule's impact.
We assess whether welfare reform affects earnings only through mean impacts that are constant within but vary across subgroups. This is important because researchers interested in treatment effect heterogeneity typically focus on estimating mean impacts that only vary across subgroups. Using a novel approach to simulating treatment group earnings under the constant mean impacts within subgroup model, we find this model does a poor job of capturing treatment effect heterogeneity for Connecticut's Jobs First welfare reform experiment. Notably, ignoring within-group heterogeneitywould lead one to miss evidence that treatment effects are consistent with basic labor supply theory.
For a cluster-robust t-statistic under cluster heterogeneity we establish that the cluster-robust t-statistic has a gaussian asymptotic null distribution and develop the effective number of clusters, which scales down the actual number of clusters, as a guide to the behavior of the test statistic. The implications for hypothesis testing in applied work are that the number of clusters, rather than the number of observations, should be reported as the sample size, and the effective number of clusters should be reported to guide inference. If the effective number of clusters is large, testing based on critical values from a normal distribution is appropriate.
We decompose the wealth effect on consumption into two components. First, we distinguish between exogenous and endogenous wealth changes. Second, we distinguish between anticipated and unanticipated exogenous changes. We estimate the impact of exogenous components using data from the 2008—2010 panel of the Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth. The wealth effect is about 3 cents per (unexpected) euro increase in wealth and driven by house price changes. The consumption response to anticipated changes in wealth is of similar magnitude and also driven by housing. We show that these findings are consistent with binding borrowing constraints.
Using listings data, we construct a new repeat-sales house price index that describes house values at the contract date when the price is determined rather than the closing date when the property is transferred. We showthat this difference in timing helps explain several puzzles about house prices, including their strong short-term serial correlation and their weak correlation with stock prices and macroeconomic news shocks. In addition, we showthat a variant of our index that relies exclusively on listings data for recent transactions accurately reveals trends in house prices several months before existing price indexes like Case-Shiller become available.
Following the enactment of reforms in the mid-1990s, China's state-owned enterprises (SOEs) became more profitable. Using theoretical insights from Azmat, Manning, and Van Reenen (2012) and Karabarbounis and Neiman (2014) and econometric methods in De Loecker andWarzynski (2012), this paper finds that SOE restructuring was nevertheless limited. This is because SOE profitability gains in part reflect that they were under less political pressure to hire excess labor and also their cost of capital fell and their capital-labor elasticity of substitution generally exceeded unity. Moreover, SOE productivity lagged that of foreign and private firms.
Business decision makers are increasingly using predictive social media analytic tools in forecasting exercises but ignoring potential model uncertainty. Using data on the universe of Twitter messages, we calculate the sentiment regarding each film to understand whether these opinions affect box office opening and DVD retail sales. Our results contrasting eleven different econometric strategies including penalization methods indicate that accounting for model uncertainty can lead to large gains in forecast accuracy. While penalization methods do not outperform model averaging on forecast accuracy, evidence indicates they perform equivalently at the variable selection stage. Finally, incorporating social media data greatly improves forecast accuracy.
Job search is a key choice variable in theories of labor markets but is difficult to measure directly. We develop a job search activity index based on Google search data, the Google Job Search Index (GJSI). We validate the GJSI with both survey- and web-based measures of job search. Unlike those measures, the GJSI is high frequency, geographically precise, and available in real time. We demonstrate the GJSI’s utility by using it to study the effects of unemployment insurance policy changes between 2008 and 2014. We find no evidence of an economically meaningful effect of these changes on aggregate search.
We study gender spillovers in career advancement using eleven years of employer-employee matched data on white-collar workers at over 4,000 private sector workplaces in Norway. Our data allow us to define seven hierarchical ranks that are consistent across plants and over time and track promotions even for individuals who change employers. We find positive spillovers across ranks (flowing from higher-ranking to lower-ranking women) but negative spillovers within ranks. The finding of narrower gender gaps in promotions for workers with more female bosses suggests that policies that increase female representation in corporate leadership can have spillover benefits to women in lower ranks.
We measure selection among high-skilled emigrants from Germany using predicted earnings. Migrants to less equal countries are positively selected relative to nonmigrants, while migrants to more equal countries are negatively selected, consistent with the prediction in Borjas (1987). Positive selection to less equal countries reflects university quality and grades, and negative selection to more equal countries reflects university subject and gender. Migrants to the United States are highly positively selected and concentrated in STEM fields. Our results highlight the relevance of the Borjas model for high-skilled individuals when credit constraints and other migration barriers are unlikely to be binding.
In the past twenty years, the share of top incomes in Switzerland has risen, while exhibiting large variations. Switzerland is similar to European countries for the top 1% but closer to the United States for higher top income groups. With the synthetic control method, we close a time gap in the tax data, exploiting the fact that Swiss cantons changed their tax system at different points in time. Using social security data, which cover all top labor incomes, we document the growing importance of labor compared to capital incomes among top income earners in Switzerland.
Numerous studies find that criminal court judges issue racially disparate sentences, but whether these patterns reflect tastes for discrimination remains unclear. An alternative explanation is statistical discrimination, which implies that judges rely on race to predict a felon’s latent criminality in the absence of perfect information. This paper uses an empirical approach that distinguishes between taste-based and statistical discrimination. The intuition is that if the rank order of judicial incarceration rates depends on race, then this is symptomatic of taste-based discrimination. The rank-order test results imply that we cannot reject the null hypothesis of no taste-based discrimination.
I conduct a series of tests of peer influence in juvenile incarceration facilities motivated by three mechanisms: criminal skill transfer, the formation of new criminal networks, and the social contagion of crime-oriented noncognitive factors. Identifying peer influence off natural variation in small cohorts within the same facility, I find evidence consistent with social contagion: exposure to peers who come from unstable homes and have high levels of aggression leads to an increase in crime after release, as well as an increase in crime-oriented attitudes and behaviors. This effect persists despite controlling for the criminal experience and gang affiliation of the cohort, and is found in settings where youths are unlikely to interact after release.
Using data on Indian firms, I provide evidence on how electricity prices affect a firm’s industry choice and productivity growth. I construct an instrument for electricity price as the interaction between coal price and the share of thermal generation in a state’s total electricity generation capacity. I find that in response to an exogenous increase in electricity price, firms switch to less electricity-intensive production processes within narrowly defined industries, reduce their machine intensity, and have lower output and productivity growth rates. Thus, electricity constraints may limit a country’s growth by leading firms to operate in industries with fewer productivity-enhancing opportunities.
This paper estimates the effect of Chapter 13 bankruptcy protection on financial health using a new data set linking bankruptcy filings to credit bureau records. Our empirical strategy uses the leniency of randomly assigned judges as an instrument for Chapter 13 protection. We find that Chapter 13 protection decreases an index measuring adverse financial events such as civil judgments and repossessions by 0.323 standard deviations and increases the probability of being a homeowner by 13.2 percentage points. Chapter 13 protection has little impact on open unsecured debt but decreases the amount of debt in collections by $1,333.
This study examines household portfolio choice through the retirement transition. I show that couples significantly decrease their stock allocations after retirement, whereas singles’ allocations remain relatively unchanged. Reallocations are concentrated among couples in which the wife is more risk averse than her husband. Husbands’ and wives’ respective retirement events are followed by opposite-signed changes in stock allocations. These findings are consistent with a model of collective household decision making in which spouses have heterogeneous risk preferences, and suggest that dynamics in the distribution of intrahousehold bargaining power generate time-varying household risk aversion.
We develop an almost affine term-structure model with a closed-form solution for factor loadings in which the spot rate and the risk price are fractionally integrated processes with different integration orders. This model is used to explain two stylized facts. First, predictability of longterm excess bond returns requires sufficient volatility and persistence in the risk price. Second, the large volatility of long-term bond returns requires persistence in the spot rate. Decomposing long-term bond returns, we find that the expectations component from the level factor is more volatile than returns themselves and that the risk premium correlates negatively with level-factor innovations.
We combine data on trade, production, and input use to document changes in the value-added content of trade between 1970 and 2009. The ratio of value-added to gross exports fell by roughly 10 percentage points worldwide. The ratio declined 20 percentage points in manufacturing, but rose in nonmanufacturing sectors. Declines also differ across countries and trade partners: they are larger for fast-growing countries, for nearby trade partners, and among partners that adopt regional trade agreements. Using a multisector structural gravity model with input-output linkages, we show that changes in trade frictions play a dominant role in explaining all these facts.
We establish methods that improve the predictions of macroeconometric models—dynamic factor models, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, and vector autoregressions—using a quarterly U.S. data set. We measure prediction quality with one-step-ahead probability densities assigned in real time. Two steps lead to substantial improvements: (a) the use of full Bayesian predictive distributions rather than conditioning on the posterior mode for parameters and (b) the use of an equally weighted pool.
We study the effect of public subsidies from the Hill-Burton program on hospital capacity, organization of the hospital industry, and utilization. We estimate that the program accounted for a net increase of over 70,000 beds nationwide and that these effects lasted well beyond twenty years. We also show that differences in the number of hospital beds per capita between high- and low-income counties, rural and urban counties, and the South and the rest of the country fell substantially. We conclude that the program largely achieved its goals, with substantial and long-lasting effects on the U.S. hospital industry.
This paper suggests an identification and estimation approach based on quantile regression to recover the underlying distribution of bidders’ private values in ascending auctions under the IPV paradigm. The quantile regression approach provides a flexible and convenient parameterization of the private values distribution, with an estimation methodology easy to implement and with several specification tests. The quantile framework provides a new focus on the quantile level of the private values distribution—in particular, the seller’s optimal screening level, which can be very useful for bidders and seller. An empirical application using data from the USFS timber auctions illustrates the methodology.
Why is the price of renting an automobile “flat” as a function of its age or odometer value? Specifically, why is it that car rental companies do not offer customers the option of renting older cars at a discount, instead of offering only relatively new cars at full price? We also tackle a related puzzle: why do car rental companies trade-in their vehicles so early? Most US companies purchase brand new rental cars and replace them after 2 years or when their odometer exceeds 34,000 km. That is a very costly strategy due to the well-known by rapid depreciation in used car prices. We show that in a competitive rental market, prices are a declining function of odometer and cars are rented over their full economic lifespan. Our solution to these puzzles is that actual rental markets are not fully competitive and firms may be behaving suboptimally. We provide a case study of a large car rental company that provided us access to its operating data. We develop a model of the company's operations that predicts that the company can significantly increase its profits by keeping its rental cars twice as long as it currently does, discounting the rental prices of older vehicles to induce its customers to rent them. The company undertook an experiment to test our model's predictions. We report initial findings from this experiment which involved over 4500 rentals of over 500 cars in 4 locations over a 5-month period. The results are consistent with the predictions of our model, and suggest that a properly chosen declining rental price function can increase overall revenues. Profits also increase significantly, since doubling the holding period of rental cars cuts discounted replacement costs by nearly 40%.
We study the structure of non-linear taxes in a dynamic economy subject to political economy problems. In contrast to existing literature, taxes are set by a self-interested politician, without any commitment power, who is partly controlled by the citizens. We prove that: (1) a version of the revelation principle applies; and (2) the provision of incentives to politicians can be separated from the provision of incentives to individuals. Using these results, we provide conditions under which distortions created by political economy problems persist or disappear. We then extend these results to environments with partially benevolent governments and potential ex post conflict among the citizens.
We use a large sample of guessed ice break-up dates for the Tanana River in Alaska to study differences between outcomes of decisions made by individuals versus groups. We estimate the distribution of guesses conditional on whether they were made by individual bettors or betting pools. We document two major distinctions between the two sets of guesses: (1) the distribution of guesses made by groups of bettors appears to conform more to the distribution of historical break-up dates than the distribution of guesses made by individual bettors, and (2) the distribution for groups has less mass in its tails and displays lower variability than the distribution for individuals. We argue that these two pieces of evidence are consistent with the hypothesis that group decisions are more moderate, either because groups have to reach a compromise when their members disagree or because individuals with extreme opinions are less likely to be part of a group.
In this paper, we expand on the seminal work of Altonji and Shakotko (1987) and Topel (1991) and reinvestigate the returns to seniority in the United States. We begin with the same wage equation as in previous studies. We extend the model of Hyslop (1999) and explicitly model the participation/employment and inter-firm mobility decisions, which, in turn, define the individual's experience and seniority. We introduce into the wage equation a summary of the workers' entire career path. The three-equation system is estimated simultaneously using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). We find that for each of the three education groups studied the returns to seniority are larger than those previously found in the literature.
This paper asks whether tax cycles or tax smoothing represents the optimal policy in models without any extrinsic uncertainty. To answer this question, I develop a general framework for studying tax cycles in a large class of models that feature various types of frictions. This framework adds various wedges, resembling tax wedges, to the labour market, to the product market, and to money acquisition into an otherwise frictionless economy, so that it nests a large class of models used for policy analysis. I derive a criterion for this general framework that indicates when cycles are welfare-improving in a frictionless economy, and why frictions make cycles more likely to be optimal. I then calibrate two models with frictions, a labour search model and a monetary model, and show that cycles are welfare-improving under standard preferences.
In this paper, I investigate the impact of a programme in Tel-Aviv, Israel, that terminated an existing inter-district busing integration programme and allowed students free choice among public schools. The identification is based on difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity designs that yield various alternative comparison groups drawn from untreated tangent neighbourhoods and adjacent cities. Across identification methods and comparison groups, the results consistently suggest that choice significantly reduces the drop-out rate and increases the cognitive achievements of high-school students. It also improves behavioural outcomes such as teacher-student relationships and students' social acclimation and satisfaction at school, and reduces the level of violence and classroom disruption.
We present a novel structural estimation procedure for models of intertemporal allocation. This is based on modelling expectations errors directly; we refer to it as synthetic residual estimation (SRE). The flexibility of SRE allows us to account for measurement error in consumption and for heterogeneity in intertemporal allocation parameters. An investigation of the small sample properties of the SRE estimator indicates that it dominates generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation of both exact and approximate Euler equations in the case when we have short panels and noisy consumption data. We apply SRE to two panels drawn from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and estimate the joint distribution of the discount factor and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. We reject strongly homogeneity of the discount factor and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. We find that, on average, the more educated are more patient and less willing to substitute intertemporally than the less educated. Within education strata, patience and willingness to substitute are positively correlated.
Relative to developed countries and some parts of the developing world, most notably sub-Saharan Africa, there are far fewer women than men in India and China. It has been argued that as many as a 100 million women could be missing. The possibility of gender bias at birth and the mistreatment of young girls are widely regarded as key explanations. We provide a decomposition of these missing women by age and cause of death. While we do not dispute the existence of severe gender bias at young ages, our computations yield some striking new findings: (1) the vast majority of missing women in India and a significant proportion of those in China are of adult age; (2) as a proportion of the total female population, the number of missing women is largest in sub-Saharan Africa, and the absolute numbers are comparable to those for India and China; (3) almost all the missing women stem from disease-by-disease comparisons and not from the changing composition of disease, as described by the epidemiological transition. Finally, using historical data, we argue that a comparable proportion of women was missing at the start of the 20th century in the United States, just as they are in India, China, and sub-Saharan Africa today.
This paper studies whether the gender composition of recruiting committees matters. We make use of the unique evidence provided by Spanish public examinations, where the allocation of candidates to evaluating committees is random. We analyse how the chances of success of 150,000 female and male candidates for positions in the four main Corps of the Spanish Judiciary from 1987 to 2007 were affected by the gender composition of their evaluation committee. We find that a female (male) candidate is significantly less likely to be hired whenever she (he) is randomly assigned to a committee where the share of female (male) evaluators is relatively greater. Evidence from multiple choice tests suggests that this is due to the fact that female majority committees overestimate the quality of male candidates.
This paper develops a simple model to analyse how a lack of political competition may lead to policies that hinder economic growth. We test the predictions of the model on panel data for the US states. In these data, we find robust evidence that lack of political competition in a state is associated with anti-growth policies: higher taxes, lower capital spending, and a reduced likelihood of using rightto- work laws. We also document a strong link between low political competition and low income growth.
We model earnings processes allowing for lots of heterogeneity across agents. We also introduce an extension to the linear ARMA model which allows the initial convergence in the long run to be different from that implied by the conventional ARMA model. This is particularly important for unit root tests, which are actually tests of a composite of two independent hypotheses. We fit to a variety of statistics including most of those considered by previous investigators. We use a sample drawn from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), and focus on white males with a high-school degree. Despite this observable homogeneity, we find more latent heterogeneity than previous investigators. We show that allowance for heterogeneity makes substantial differences to estimates of model parameters and to outcomes of interest. Additionally, we find strong evidence against the hypothesis that any worker has a unit root.
This paper sets out necessary and sufficient empirical conditions for rational intrinsic habits models in the revealed preference tradition of Samuelson (1948), Houthakker (1950), Afriat (1967), and Browning (1989). The conditions in the paper are shown to be computationally straightforward and to yield set identification for certain features of the model. The ideas outlined are applied to a microeconomic panel dataset. The addition of habit formation to the discounted utility model is shown to improve the rationalizability of the microdata considerably. Even if habit formation is rejected, it is shown that modest and plausible allowance for heterogeneity in prices and interest rates is sufficient to bring consumption behaviour into line with the theory.
We build a model of heterogeneous individuals—who make investments in schooling quantity and quality—to quantify the importance of differences in human capital vs. total factor productivity (TFP) in explaining the variation in per capita income across countries. The production of human capital requires expenditures and time inputs; the relative importance of these inputs determines the predictions of the theory for inequality both within and across countries. We discipline our quantitative assessment with a calibration firmly grounded on US micro evidence. Since in our calibrated model economy human capital production requires a significant amount of expenditures, TFP changes affect disproportionately the benefits and costs of human capital accumulation. Our main finding is that human capital accumulation strongly amplifies TFP differences across countries: to explain a 20-fold difference in the output per worker, the model requires a 5-fold difference in the TFP of the tradable sector, vs. an 18-fold difference if human capital is fixed across countries.
Prices are typically used as proxies for countries' export quality. I relax this strong assumption by exploiting both price and quantity information to estimate the quality of products exported to the United States. Higher quality is assigned to products with higher market shares conditional on price. The estimated qualities reveal substantial heterogeneity in product markets' scope for quality differentiation, or their “quality ladders”. I use this variation to explain the heterogeneous impact of low-wage competition on US manufacturing employment and output. Markets characterized by relatively short quality ladders are associated with larger employment and output declines resulting from low-wage competition.
We analyse an experimental public goods game in which group members can endogenously determine whether they want to supplement a standard voluntary contribution mechanism with the possibility of rewarding or punishing other group members. We find a significantly positive effect of endogenous institutional choice on the level of cooperation in comparison to the same exogenously implemented institutions. This suggests that participation rights enhance cooperation in groups. With endogenous choice, groups typically vote for the reward option, although punishment is even more effective in sustaining high levels of cooperation. Our results are evaluated against the predictions of social preference models.
We set up and solve a spatial, dynamic equilibrium model of the housing market based on two main assumptions: households with heterogenous abilities flow in and out metropolitan areas in response to local wage shocks, and the housing supply cannot adjust instantly because of regulatory constraints. In our equilibrium, house prices compensate for cross-sectional productivity differences. We increase productivity dispersion in the calibrated model in order to match the 30-year increase in cross-sectional wage dispersion that we document based on metropolitan-level data. We show that the model quantitatively matches the observed 30-year increase in dispersion of house prices across US metropolitan areas. It is consistent with several other features of the cross-sectional distribution of house prices and wages.
I consider a dynamic model of competition between two proprietary networks. Consumers die and are replaced with a constant hazard rate, and firms compete for new consumers to join their network by offering network entry prices. I derive a series of results pertaining to (a) existence and uniqueness of symmetric equilibria, (b) monotonicity of the pricing function (e.g. larger networks set higher prices), (c) network size dynamics (increasing dominance vs. reversion to the mean), and (d) firm value (how it varies with network effects). Finally, I apply my general framework to the study of termination charges in wireless telecommunications. I consider various forms of regulation and examine their impact on firm profits and market share dynamics.
In view of the non-identification of the first-price auction model with risk-averse bidders, this paper proposes some parametric identifying restrictions and a semiparametric estimator for the risk aversion parameter(s) and the latent distribution of private values. Specifically, we exploit heterogeneity across auctioned objects to establish semiparametric identification under a conditional quantile restriction of the bidders' private value distribution and a parameterization of the bidders' utility function. We develop a multistep semiparametric method and we show that our semiparametric estimator of the utility function parameter(s) converges at the optimal rate, which is slower than the parametric one but independent of the dimension of the exogenous variables thereby avoiding the curse of dimensionality. We then consider various extensions including a binding reserve price, affiliation among private values, and asymmetric bidders. The method is illustrated on U.S. Forest Service timber sales, and bidders' risk neutrality is rejected.
We present a revealed preference methodology for empirically analysing collective consumption behaviour. First, we introduce an integer programming (IP) methodology for testing data consistency with collective consumption models that account for publicly as well as privately consumed goods. This IP methodology can include information on “assignable quantities” for private goods. Next, we show that the IP methodology allows for recovering the personalized (Lindahl) prices for the public goods and the personalized quantities for the private goods. In turn, this implies recovery of the sharing rule (i.e. personalized income share levels). An empirical application demonstrates the practical usefulness of the methodology.
Our paper examines the impact of heterogeneous trading technologies for households on asset prices and the distribution of wealth. We distinguish between passive traders who hold fixed portfolios of stocks and bonds, and active traders who adjust their portfolios to changes in expected returns. To solve the model, we derive an optimal consumption sharing rule that does not depend on the trading technology, and we derive an aggregation result for state prices. This allows us to solve for equilibrium prices and allocations without having to search for market clearing prices in each asset market separately. We show that the fraction of total wealth held by active traders, not the fraction held by all participants, is critical for asset prices because only these traders respond to variation in state prices and hence absorb the residual aggregate risk created by non-participants. We calibrate the heterogeneity in trading technologies to match the equity premium and the risk-free rate. The calibrated model reproduces the skewness and kurtosis of the wealth distribution in the data. In contrast to existing asset pricing models with heterogeneous agents, our model matches the high volatility of returns and the low volatility of the risk-free rate.
In many procurement auctions, the bidders' unobserved costs depend both on a common shock and on idiosyncratic private information. Assuming a multiplicative structure, I derive sufficient conditions under which the model is identified and propose a non-parametric estimation procedure that results in uniformly consistent estimators of the cost components' distributions. The estimation procedure is applied to data from Michigan highway procurement auctions. Private information is estimated to account for 34% of the variation in bidders' costs. It is shown that accounting for unobserved auction heterogeneity has important implications for the evaluation of the distribution of rents, efficiency, and optimal auction design.
The consumption literature uses adult equivalence scales to measure individual-level inequality. This practice imposes the assumption that there is no within-household inequality. In this paper, we show that ignoring consumption inequality within households produces misleading estimates of inequality along two dimensions. To illustrate this point, we use a collective model of household behaviour to estimate consumption inequality in the U.K. from 1968 to 2001. First, the use of adult equivalence scales underestimates the initial level of cross-sectional consumption inequality by 50%, as large differences in the earnings of husbands and wives translate into large differences in consumption allocations within households. Second, we estimate the rise in between-household inequality has been accompanied by an offsetting reduction in within-household inequality. Our findings also indicate that increases in marital sorting on wages and hours worked can simultaneously explain two-thirds of the decline in within-household inequality and between a quarter and one-half of the rise in between-household inequality for one and two adult households.
Using box-office data for all movies released between 1982 and 2000, I quantify how much the consumption decisions of individuals depend on information they receive from their peers, when quality is ex ante uncertain. In the presence of social learning, we should see different box-office sales dynamics depending on whether opening weekend demand is higher or lower than expected. I use a unique feature of the movie industry to identify ex ante demand expectations: the number of screens dedicated to a movie in its opening weekend reflects the sales expectations held by profit-maximizing theatre owners. Several pieces of evidence are consistent with social learning. First, sales of movies with positive surprise and negative surprise in opening weekend demand diverge over time. If a movie has better than expected appeal and therefore experiences larger than expected sales in Week 1, consumers in Week 2 update upward their expectations of quality, further increasing Week 2 sales. Second, this divergence is small for movies for which consumers have strong priors and large for movies for which consumers have weak priors. Third, the effect of a surprise is stronger for audiences with large social networks. Finally, consumers do not respond to surprises in first-week sales that are orthogonal to movie quality, like weather shocks. Overall, social learning appears to be an important determinant of sales in the movie industry, accounting for 32% of sales for the typical movie with positive surprise. This implies the existence of a large “social multiplier” such that the elasticity of aggregate demand to movie quality is larger than the elasticity of individual demand.
We estimate the effect of shifts in monetary policy using the term structure of interest rates. In our no-arbitrage model, the short rate follows a version of the Taylor's (1993, “Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice”, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195–214) rule where the coefficients on the output gap and inflation vary over time. The monetary policy loading on the output gap has averaged around 0·4 and has not changed very much over time. The overall response of the yield curve to output gap components is relatively small. In contrast, the inflation loading has changed substantially over the last 50 years and ranges from close to zero in 2003 to a high of 2·4 in 1983. Long-term bonds are sensitive to inflation policy shifts with increases in inflation loadings leading to higher short rates and widening yield spreads.
We offer an explanation for the forward premium puzzle in foreign exchange markets based upon investor overconfidence. In the model, overconfident individuals overreact to their information about future inflation, which causes greater overshooting in the forward rate than in the spot rate. Thus, when agents observe a signal of higher future inflation, the consequent rise in the forward premium predicts a subsequent downward correction of the spot rate. The model can explain the magnitude of the forward premium bias and several other stylized facts related to the joint behaviour of forward and spot exchange rates. Our approach is also consistent with the availability of profitable carry trade strategies.
Quantile regression (QR) is an increasingly important empirical tool in economics and other sciences for analysing the impact a set of regressors has on the conditional distribution of an outcome. Extremal QR, or QR applied to the tails, is of interest in many economic and financial applications, such as conditional value at risk, production efficiency, and adjustment bands in (S,s) models. This paper provides feasible inference tools for extremal conditional quantile models that rely on extreme value approximations to the distribution of self-normalized QR statistics. The methods are simple to implement and can be of independent interest even in the univariate (non-regression) case. We illustrate the results with two empirical examples analysing extreme fluctuations of a stock return and extremely low percentiles of live infant birthweight in the range between 250 and 1500 g.
Whether campaign advertising influences election outcomes is an open question; a paradox given the amount spent on campaigning in general and TV advertising in particular. We argue that such “absence of documentation” is due to the focus of the empirical literature on the U.S., where the allocation of campaign spending and advertising is decentralized. We explore a quasi-natural experiment that enables us to mitigate the omitted variables and reverse causality problems caused by decentralized allocation. In Brazil, gubernatorial elections work in a two-round system. In the first round, candidates' TV time shares are determined by their coalitions' share of seats in the National Parliament. In the second round, TV time is split equally between the first-round winner and runner-up. Using differences between rounds as a source of variation, we find a large causal effect of TV advertising on election outcomes.
Preemption games are widely used to model economic problems such as patent races. We introduce private information into these games and allow for this information to stochastically change over time. This reflects, e.g. how R&D competitors improve their innovations over time and keep these innovations secret before patenting them. The analysis initially appears intractable because of the complexity of the equilibrium updating of beliefs on opponents' information. However, we demonstrate the existence of a class of equilibria and calculate these equilibria in closed form. We find that the expected durations in these equilibria are longer than when players' information is public but, in some cases, shorter than in the collusive outcome. Hence, R&D secrecy slows down innovation disclosure.
This paper investigates the relationship between media bias and the influence of the media on voting in the context of newspaper endorsements. We first develop a simple econometric model in which voters choose candidates under uncertainty and rely on endorsements from better informed sources. Newspapers are potentially biased in favour of one of the candidates and voters thus rationally account for the credibility of any endorsements. Our primary empirical finding is that endorsements are influential in the sense that voters are more likely to support the recommended candidate after publication of the endorsement. The degree of this influence, however, depends upon the credibility of the endorsement. In this way, endorsements for the Democratic candidate from left-leaning newspapers are less influential than are endorsements from neutral or right-leaning newspapers and likewise for endorsements for the Republican. We also find that endorsements are more influential among moderate voters and those more likely to be exposed to the endorsement. In sum, these findings suggest that voters do rely on the media for information during campaigns but that the extent of this reliance depends upon the degree and direction of any bias.
The higher legislative success of parliamentary governments relative to presidential governments has been used to argue that legislative success is driven by parliamentary governments' superior agenda power or their control of legislative majorities. We show that this approach is at odds with some of the empirical regularities across and within political systems. We then propose a legislative bargaining model to elucidate this puzzle. In the model, the policies of a confidence-dependent parliamentary government enjoy more predictable support from governing coalition members because their short-term policy goals are less important than the government's survival. Coalition support is stronger when the government has more agenda power and is weaker with a larger ruling coalition. We explore the empirical implications of these findings and their consequences for the comparative study of legislative institutions.
How can we know in advance whether simplifying assumptions about beliefs will make a difference in the conclusions of game-theoretic models? We define critical types to be types whose rationalizable correspondence is sensitive to assumptions about arbitrarily high-order beliefs. We show that a type is critical if and only if it exhibits common belief in some non-trivial event. We use this characterization to show that all types in commonly used type spaces are critical. On the other hand, we show that regular types (types that are not critical) are generic, although perhaps inconvenient to use in applications.
This paper estimates the effect of the early childhood environment on a large array of social and economic outcomes lasting almost 60 years. To do this, we exploit variation in the living conditions experienced by Yemenite children after being airlifted to Israel in 1949. We find that children who were placed in a more modern environment (i.e. with better sanitary and infrastructure conditions) were more likely to obtain higher education, marry at an older age, have fewer children, and work at age 55. They were also more likely to be assimilated into Israeli society, to be less religious, and have more worldly tastes in music and food. However, these effects are found mainly for women and not for men. We also find an effect on the next generation—children who lived in a better environment grew up to have children with more education.
I examine a model of a uniform price auction of a perfectly divisible good with private information in which the bidders submit discrete bidpoints rather than continuous downward sloping demand functions. I characterize necessary conditions for equilibrium bidding. The characterization reveals a close relationship between bidding in multiunit auctions and oligopolistic behaviour. I demonstrate that a recently proposed indirect approach to the revenue comparisons of discriminatory and uniform price auctions is not valid if bid functions have steps. In particular, bidders may bid above their marginal valuation in a uniform price auction. In order to demonstrate that discrete bidding can have important consequences for empirical analysis I use my model to examine a data set consisting of individual bids in uniform price treasury auctions of the Czech government. I propose an alternative method for evaluating the performance of the employed mechanism. My results suggest that the uniform price auction performs well, both in terms of efficiency of the allocation and in terms of revenue maximization. I estimate that the employed mechanism failed to extract at most 3 basis points in terms of the annual yield of T-bills worth of expected surplus while implementing an allocation resulting in almost all the efficient surplus. Failing to account for discreteness of bids would in my application result in overestimating the unextracted revenue by more than 50%.
The Pareto-like tail of the size distribution of firms can arise from random growth of productivity or stochastic accumulation of capital. If the shocks that give rise to firm growth are perfectly correlated within a firm, then the growth rates of small and large firms are equally volatile, contrary to what is found in the data. If firm growth is the result of many independent shocks within a firm, it can take hundreds of years for a few large firms to emerge. This paper describes an economy with both types of shocks that can account for the thick-tailed firm size distribution, high entry and exit rates, and the relatively young age of large firms. The economy is one in which aggregate growth is driven by the creation of new products by both new and incumbent firms. Some new firms have better ideas than others and choose to implement those ideas at a more rapid pace. Eventually, such firms slow down when the quality of their ideas reverts to the mean. As in the data, average growth rates in a cross section of firms will appear to be independent of firm size, for all but the smallest firms.
The “new classical” theory states that families in low-skill occupations with low levels of human capital can stay poor from one generation to the next, while families in high-skill occupations with correspondingly high levels of human capital stay wealthy, despite being endowed with the same level of ability on average. This paper proposes an informal institutional mechanism—the community-based network—through which families belonging to the same neighbourhood or kinship group can bootstrap their way out of such low-skill occupational traps. The insight from the dynamic model that is developed is that once they form, new networks providing mutual support to their members and substituting for inherited parental human capital and wealth will strengthen most rapidly in historically disadvantaged communities, generating a correspondingly high level of intergenerational mobility. These predictions are successfully tested using unique data from India. The analysis in this paper, coupled with an emerging empirical literature on networks and migration, provides a new perspective on mobility in developing countries, with restrictive traditional networks decaying even as new networks supporting collective mobility form and strengthen over time.
To analyse the role that the World Trade Organization (WTO) plays in enforcing international trade agreements, this paper first explores what countries can achieve alone by characterizing optimal private trigger strategies (PTS) under which each country triggers a punishment phase by imposing an explicit tariff based on privately observed imperfect signals of the other country's concealed trade barriers. It identifies the condition under which countries can restrain the use of concealed barriers based on PTS and establishes that countries will not reduce the cooperative protection level to its minimum attainable level under the optimal PTS. This paper then considers third-party trigger strategies (TTS) under which the WTO allows each country to initiate a punishment phase based on the WTO's judgement about potential violations. By comparing the optimal PTS and optimal TTS, it demonstrates that the WTO facilitates a better cooperative equilibrium by changing the nature of punishment-triggering signals from private to public, which in turn enables countries to use a more efficient punishment, such as an asymmetric and a minimum punishment.
I present a sticky-wage model of exchange rate pass-through with heterogeneous producers and endogenous markups. The model shows that low levels of exchange rate pass-through to firm- and aggregate-level import prices coexist with large movements in trade flows. After an exchange rate shock, aggregate import prices are subject to a composition bias due to changes in the extensive margin of trade (the number of goods traded between countries). At the firm level, each producer adjusts its markups depending on its own productivity and the change in the competitive environment generated by the exchange rate movement. Firm-level price responses are asymmetric—different for appreciations and depreciations—and adjustments in the intensive margin of trade (firm-level exports) are substantial. In general equilibrium, the model shows that firm reallocations increase the persistence of exogenous shocks.
We evaluate the effects of a fundamental lever of constitutional design: the duration of public office terms. We present a simple model grounded in interviews with legislators and highlight three forces shaping incentives to exert legislative effort. We exploit two natural experiments in the Argentine Congress (where term lengths were assigned randomly) to ascertain which forces are empirically dominant. Results for separate measures as well as an aggregate index of legislative effort show that longer terms increase effort. Shorter terms appear to discourage effort not due to campaign distractions but due to an investment payback logic: when effort yields returns over multiple periods, longer terms yield a higher chance of capturing those returns. A broader implication is that job stability may promote effort despite making individuals less accountable.
While there is an extensive literature on how economic agents bargain to divide an asset, little is known about the decision to initiate bargaining and how the initiation affects the outcome of bargaining. We address these questions in the context of high-stakes poker tournaments in which the last few players often negotiate the division of the remaining prize money rather than risk playing the tournament to the end. In 63% of the tournaments in our sample players enter into negotiations, and in 31%, they successfully reach an agreement. We find that the identity of the player who initiates bargaining affects whether a deal is completed but does not affect the terms of the eventual deal. The initiator tends to have a weaker than average position at the table, but the likelihood that a deal will be completed increases in the initiator's strength in the game and history of winning past tournaments. These findings indicate that initiating negotiations conveys information that is relevant to whether a deal will emerge. Nevertheless, initiating bargaining does not affect the initiator's pay-off in a completed deal. Lastly, we find strong evidence that bargaining tends to be initiated and is more likely to be successful when participants' stakes are about equal, consistent with the theoretical work of Cramton, Gibbons and Klemperer (1987, “Dissolving a Partnership Efficiently”, Econometrica, 55, 615–632).
The paper studies the effects and the determinants of interregional redistribution in a model of residential and political choice. We find that paradoxical consequences of interjurisdictional transfers arise if people are mobile: while self-sufficient regions are necessarily identical with respect to policies and average incomes in our model, interregional redistribution always leads to the divergence of regional policies and per capita incomes. Thus, interregional redistribution prevents interregional equality. At the same time, however, transfers may allow for more interpersonal equality among the inhabitants of each region. The voting population may therefore in a decision over the fiscal constitution deliberately implement such a transfer scheme to foster regional divergence. Empirical evidence from panel data from OECD countries and Canadian provinces is consistent with the theory.
We study dynamic incentives and behaviour in markets with costly discovery of past transactions. In our model, a sequence of short-lived customers interact over time with a single long-lived firm that privately knows its type (good or opportunistic). Customers must pay to observe the firm's past behaviour. We characterize the equilibrium structure that features accumulation, consumption, and restoration of reputation. The opportunistic firm deliberately builds its reputation up to a point where the maximum periods of information acquired by customers do not reveal past opportunistic behaviour and exploits the customers who most trust the firm.
This paper provides a new, empirically driven application of the dynamic Mirrleesian framework by studying a feasible and potentially powerful tax reform: age-dependent labour income taxation. I show analytically how age dependence improves policy on both the intratemporal and intertemporal margins. I use detailed numerical simulations, calibrated with data from the U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics, to generate robust policy implications: age dependence (1) lowers marginal taxes on average and especially on high-income young workers and (2) lowers average taxes on all young workers relative to older workers when private saving and borrowing are restricted. Finally, I calculate and characterize the welfare gains from age dependence. Despite its simplicity, age dependence generates a welfare gain equal to between 0·6% and 1·5% of aggregate annual consumption, and it captures more than 60% of the gain from reform to the dynamic optimal policy. The gains are due to substantial increases in both efficiency and equity. When age dependence is restricted to be Pareto improving, the welfare gain is nearly as large.
How does trade liberalization affect wages? This is the first paper to consider in theory and data how the impact of final and intermediate input tariff cuts on workers' wages varies with the global engagement of their firm. Our model predicts that a fall in output tariffs lowers wages at import-competing firms but boosts wages at exporting firms. Similarly, a fall in input tariffs raises wages at import-using firms relative to those at firms that only source inputs locally. Using highly detailed Indonesian manufacturing census data for the period 1991–2000, we find considerable support for the model's predictions.
In this paper, we use an economic model to analyse data from a major randomized social experiment, namely PROGRESA in Mexico, and to evaluate its impact on school participation. We show the usefulness of using experimental data to estimate a structural economic model as well as the importance of a structural model in interpreting experimental results. The availability of the experiment also allows us to estimate the program's general equilibrium effects, which we then incorporate into our simulations. Our main findings are (i) the program's grant has a much stronger impact on school enrolment than an equivalent reduction in child wages; (ii) the program has a positive effect on the enrollment of children, especially after primary school; this result is well replicated by the parsimonious structural model; (iii) there are sizeable effects of the program on child wages, which, however, reduce the effectiveness of the program only marginally; and (iv) a revenue neutral change in the program that would increase the grant for secondary school children while eliminating for the primary school children would have a substantially larger effect on enrollment of the latter, while having minor effects on the former.
To fully understand the motives for delegating a decision right, it is important to study responsibility attributions for outcomes of delegated decisions. We conducted laboratory experiments in which subjects could either choose a fair allocation or an unfair allocation or delegate the choice, and we used a punishment option to elicit responsibility attributions. Our results show that, first, responsibility attribution can be effectively shifted and, second, this can constitute a strong motive for the delegation of a decision right. Moreover, we propose a simple measure of responsibility and show that this measure outperforms measures based on inequity aversion or reciprocity in predicting punishment behaviour.
In this paper, we decompose city size wage premia into various components. We base these decompositions on an estimated on-the-job search model that incorporates latent ability, search frictions, firm-worker match quality, human capital accumulation, and endogenous migration between large, medium, and small cities. Counterfactual simulations of the model indicate that variation in returns to experience and differences in wage intercepts across location type are the most important mechanisms contributing to observed city size wage premia. Variation in returns to experience is more important for generating wage premia between large and small locations, while differences in wage intercepts are more important for generating wage premia between medium and small locations. Sorting on unobserved ability within education group and differences in labour market search frictions and distributions of firm-worker match quality contribute little to observed city size wage premia. These conclusions hold for separate samples of high school and college graduates.
This paper examines the dynamic implications of social networks for the labour market outcomes of refugees resettled in the U.S. A theoretical model of job information transmission shows that the relationship between social network size and labour market outcomes is heterogeneous and depends on the vintage of network members: an increase in network size can negatively impact some cohorts in a network while benefiting others. To test this prediction, I use new data on political refugees resettled in the U.S. and exploit the fact that these refugees are distributed across cities by a resettlement agency, precluding individuals from sorting. The results indicate that an increase in the number of social network members resettled in the same year or one year prior to a new arrival leads to a deterioration of outcomes, while a greater number of tenured network members improves the probability of employment and raises the hourly wage.
This paper addresses two questions: What accounts for the gender gap in labour-market outcomes? What are the driving forces behind the changes in the gender labour-market outcomes over the period 1968–1997? It formulates a dynamic general equilibrium model of labour supply, occupational sorting, and human-capital accumulation in which gender discrimination and an earnings gap arise endogenously. It uses this model to quantify the driving forces behind the decline in the gender earnings gap and the increase in female labour-force participation, the proportion of women working in professional occupations, and hours worked. It finds that labour-market experience is the most important factor explaining the gender earnings gap. In addition, statistical discrimination accounts for a large fraction of the observed gender earnings gap and its decline. It also finds that a large increase in aggregate productivity in professional occupations plays a major role in the increase in female labour-force participation, number of hours worked, and the proportion of females working in professional occupations. Although of less importance, demographic changes account for a substantial part of the increase in female labour-force participation and hours worked, whereas home production technology shocks do not.
Drawing on uncommonly rich and representative data from the Colombian manufacturing census, this paper documents new empirical relationships between input prices, output prices, and plant size and proposes a model of endogenous input and output quality choices by heterogeneous firms to explain the observed patterns. The key empirical facts are that, on average within narrowly defined sectors, (1) larger plants charge more for their outputs and (2) larger plants pay more for their material inputs. The latter fact generalizes the well-known positive correlation between plant size and wages. Similar correlations hold between prices and export status. We show that the empirical patterns are consistent with a parsimonious extension of the Melitz (2003, “The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity,” Econometrica, 71, 1695–1725) framework to include endogenous choice of input and output quality. Using a measure of the scope for quality differentiation from Sutton (1998, Technology and Market Structure: Theory and History. Cambridge: MIT Press), we show that differences across sectors in the relationships between prices and plant size are consistent with our model. Available evidence suggests that differences in observable measures of market power do not provide a complete explanation for the empirical patterns. We interpret the results as supportive of the hypothesis that quality differences of both inputs and outputs play an important role in generating the price–plant size correlations.
This paper measures the role of quality-adjusted years of schooling in accounting for cross-country output per worker differences. While data on years of schooling are readily available, data on education quality are not. I use the returns to schooling of foreign-educated immigrants in the U.S. to measure the education quality of their birth country. Immigrants from developed countries earn higher returns than do immigrants from developing countries. I show how to incorporate this measure of education quality into an otherwise standard development accounting exercise. The main result is that cross-country differences in education quality are roughly as important as cross-country differences in years of schooling in accounting for output per worker differences, raising the total contribution of education from 10% to 20% of output per worker differences.
We study strategic information transmission in an organization consisting of an infinite sequence of individual decision-makers. Each decision-maker chooses an action and receives an informative but imperfect signal of the once-and-for-all realization of an unobserved state. The state affects all individuals' preferences over present and future decisions. Decision-makers do not directly observe the realized signals or actions of their predecessors. Instead, they must rely on cheap-talk messages in order to accumulate information about the state. Each decision-maker is therefore both a receiver of information with respect to his decision and a sender with respect to all future decisions. We show that if preferences are not perfectly aligned, “full learning” equilibria—ones in which the individuals' posterior beliefs eventually place full weight on the true state—do not exist. This is so both in the case of private communication, in which each individual only hears the message of his immediate predecessor, and in the case of public communication, in which a decision-maker hears the message of all his predecessors. Surprisingly, in the latter case full learning may be impossible even in the limit as all members of the organization become perfectly patient. We also consider the case where all individuals have access to a mediator who can work across time periods arbitrarily far apart. In this case, full learning equilibria exist.
The optimal design of low-income support is examined using a structural labour supply model. The approach incorporates unobserved heterogeneity, fixed costs of work, childcare costs and the detailed non-convexities of the tax and transfer system. The analysis considers purely Pareto improving reforms and also optimal design under social welfare functions with different degrees of inequality aversion. We explore the gains from tagging and also examine the case for the use of hours-contingent payments. Using the tax schedule for lone parents in the U.K. as our policy environment, the results point to a reformed non-linear tax schedule with tax credits only optimal for low earners. The results also suggest a welfare improving role for tagging according to child age and for hours-contingent payments, although the case for the latter is mitigated when hours cannot be monitored or recorded accurately by the tax authorities.
We discuss a simple model in which parents and children make investments in the children's education and investments for other purposes and parents can transfer cash to their children. We show that for an identifiable set of parent–child pairs, parents will rationally underinvest in their child's education. For these parent–child pairs, additional financial aid will increase educational attainment. The model highlights an important feature of higher education finance, the “expected family contribution” (EFC) that is based on income, assets, and other factors. The EFC is neither legally guaranteed nor universally offered: our model identifies the set of families that are disproportionately likely to not provide their full EFC. Using a common proxy for financial aid, we show, in data from the Health and Retirement Study, that financial aid increases the educational attainment of children whose families are more likely than others to underinvest in education. Financial aid has no effect on the educational attainment of children in other families. The theory and empirical evidence identifies a set of children who face quantitatively important borrowing constraints for higher education.
We investigate the dynamics of prices, information, and expectations in a competitive, noisy, dynamic asset pricing equilibrium model with long-term investors. We argue that the fact that prices can score worse or better than consensus opinion in predicting the fundamentals is a product of endogenous short-term speculation. For a given positive level of residual pay-off uncertainty, if liquidity trades display low persistence, rational investors act like market makers and accommodate the order flow and prices are farther away from fundamentals compared to consensus. This defines a “Keynesian” region; the complementary region is “Hayekian” in that rational investors chase the trend and prices are systematically closer to fundamentals than average expectations. The standard case of no residual uncertainty and liquidity trading following a random walk is on the frontier of the two regions and identifies the set of deep parameters for which rational investors abide by Keynes' dictum of concentrating on an asset “long-term prospects and those only”. The analysis also explains momentum and reversal in stock returns and how accommodation and trend-chasing strategies differ from these phenomena.
The Ricardian model predicts that countries should produce and export relatively more in industries in which they are relatively more productive. Though one of the most celebrated insights in the theory of international trade, this prediction has received little attention in the empirical literature since the mid-1960s. The main reason behind this lack of popularity is the absence of clear theoretical foundations to guide the empirical analysis. Building on the seminal work of Eaton and Kortum (“Technology, Geography, and Trade”, Econometrica, 70, 1741–1779 2002), we offer such foundations and use them to quantify the importance of Ricardian comparative advantage. In the process, we also provide a theoretically consistent alternative to Balassa's (1965, “An Empirical Demonstration of Classical Comparative Cost Theory”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 45, 231–238) well-known index of “revealed comparative advantage”.
Empirical investigation of the quality interpretation of the Melitz (2003) model of firm heterogeneity and trade has been limited by the lack of direct data on quality. This paper matches firm-level export data with expert assessments of the quality of champagne producers to estimate the key parameters of that model. Quality monotonically increases firm-level prices, the probability of market entry, and export values. The estimated model—which calibrates the relative importance of firm-level quality and idiosyncratic demand—accurately predicts the average quality exported to each country. Simulations show that the data reject the polar alternatives where outcomes are based entirely on either quality or randomness.
Recent theories endogenize the attitude endowments of individuals, assuming that they are shaped by the attitudes of parents and other role models. This paper tests empirically for the relevance of three aspects of the attitude transmission process highlighted in this theoretical literature: (1) transmission of attitudes from parents to children; (2) an impact of prevailing attitudes in the local environment on child attitudes; and (3) positive assortative mating of parents, which enhances the ability of a parent to pass on his or her attitudes to the child. We focus on two fundamentally important attitudes, willingness to take risks and willingness to trust others. We find empirical support for all three aspects, providing an empirical underpinning for the literature. An investigation of underlying mechanisms shows that socialization is important in the transmission process. Various parental characteristics and aspects of family structure are found to strengthen the socialization process, with implications for modeling the socialization production function and for policies focused on affecting children's non-cognitive skills. The paper also provides evidence that the transmission of risk and trust attitudes affects a wide variety of child outcomes, implying a potentially large total effect on children's economic situation.
This paper analyses the possibility and the consequences of rational bubbles in a dynamic economy where financially constrained firms demand and supply liquidity. Bubbles are more likely to emerge, the scarcer the supply of outside liquidity and the more limited the pledgeability of corporate income; they crowd investment in (out) when liquidity is abundant (scarce). We analyse extensions with firm heterogeneity and stochastic bubbles.
Why is it difficult to restructure sovereign debt in a timely manner? In this paper, we present a theory of the sovereign debt-restructuring process in which delay arises as individual creditors hold up a settlement in order to extract greater payments from the sovereign. We then use the theory to analyse recent policy proposals aimed at ensuring equal repayment of creditor claims. Strikingly, we show that such collective action policies may increase delay by encouraging free riding on negotiation costs, even while preventing hold-up and reducing total negotiation costs. A calibrated version of the model can account for observed delays and finds that free riding is quantitatively relevant: whereas in simple low-cost debt-restructuring operations, collective mechanisms will reduce delay by more than 60%, in high-cost complicated restructurings, the adoption of such mechanisms results in a doubling of delay.
This paper analyses peer effects among university scientists. Specifically, it investigates whether the quality and the number of peers affect the productivity of researchers in physics, chemistry, and mathematics. The usual endogeneity problems related to estimating peer effects are addressed by using the dismissal of scientists by the Nazi government in 1933 as a source of exogenous variation in the peer group of scientists staying in Germany. To investigate localized peer effects, I construct a new panel data set covering the universe of scientists at the German universities from 1925 to 1938 from historical sources. I find no evidence for peer effects at the local level. Even very high-quality scientists do not affect the productivity of their local peers.
The classic model of Becker (1965, “A Theory of the Allocation of Time”, Economic Journal, 125, 493–517) suggests that labour supply decisions should be analysed within the broader context of time allocation and market good consumption choices, but most empirical work on policy has focused exclusively on measuring impacts on market work. This paper examines how income taxes affect time allocation during the entire day and how these time allocation decisions interact with expenditure patterns. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1975 to 2004, we analyse the response of single women's housework, labour supply, and other time to variation in tax and transfer schedules across income levels, number of children, states, and time. We find that when the economic reward to participating in the labour force increases, market work increases and housework decreases, with the decrease in housework accounting for approximately two-thirds of the increase in market work. Analysis of repeated cross sections of time diary data from 1975 to 2004 shows that “home production” decreases substantially when market hours of work increase in response to policy changes. Data on expenditures show some evidence that expenditures on market goods likely to substitute for housework increase in response to a greater incentive to join the labour force. The baseline estimates imply that the elasticity of substitution between consumption of home and market goods is 2·61. The results are consistent with the Becker model. Meanwhile, single men show little response to changes in tax policy, and we are able to rule out an elasticity of substitution between home and market goods for this group of more than 1·66.
Starting in the 1970's, wage inequality and the number of hours worked by employed U.S. prime-age male workers have both increased. We argue that these two facts are related. We use a labour market model with on-the-job search where by working longer hours individuals acquire greater skills. Since job candidates are ranked by productivity, greater skills not only increase worker's productivity in the current job but also help the worker to obtain better jobs. When job offers become more dispersed, wage inequality increases and workers work longer hours to obtain better jobs. As a result, average hours per worker in the economy increase. This mechanism accounts for around two-thirds of the increase in hours observed in data. Part of the increase is inefficient since workers obtain better jobs at the expense of other workers competing for the same jobs.
We investigate the choice of the bandwidth for the regression discontinuity estimator. We focus on estimation by local linear regression, which was shown to have attractive properties (Porter, J. 2003, “Estimation in the Regression Discontinuity Model” (unpublished, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison)). We derive the asymptotically optimal bandwidth under squared error loss. This optimal bandwidth depends on unknown functionals of the distribution of the data and we propose simple and consistent estimators for these functionals to obtain a fully data-driven bandwidth algorithm. We show that this bandwidth estimator is optimal according to the criterion of Li (1987, “Asymptotic Optimality for Cp, CL, Cross-validation and Generalized Cross-validation: Discrete Index Set”, Annals of Statistics, 15, 958–975), although it is not unique in the sense that alternative consistent estimators for the unknown functionals would lead to bandwidth estimators with the same optimality properties. We illustrate the proposed bandwidth, and the sensitivity to the choices made in our algorithm, by applying the methods to a data set previously analysed by Lee (2008, “Randomized Experiments from Non-random Selection in U.S. House Elections”, Journal of Econometrics, 142, 675–697) as well as by conducting a small simulation study.
We study the identification of panel models with linear individual-specific coefficients when T is fixed. We show identification of the variance of the effects under conditional uncorrelatedness. Identification requires restricted dependence of errors, reflecting a trade-off between heterogeneity and error dynamics. We show identification of the probability distribution of individual effects when errors follow an Autoregressive Moving Average process under conditional independence. We discuss Generalized Method of Moments estimation of moments of effects and errors and construct non-parametric estimators of their densities. As an application, we estimate the effect that a mother smoking during pregnancy has on her child's birth weight.
This paper studies gender interactions within hierarchical organizations using a large data set on the duration of Italian municipal governments elected between 1993 and 2003. A municipal government can be viewed as a hierarchy, whose stability over time depends on the degree of cooperation between and within ranks. We find that in municipalities headed by female mayors, the probability of early termination of the legislature is higher. This result persists and becomes stronger when we control for municipality fixed effects as well as for non-random sorting of women into municipalities using regression discontinuity in gender-mixed electoral races decided by a narrow margin. The likelihood that a female mayor survives until the end of her term is lowest when the council is entirely male and in regions with less favourable attitudes towards working women. This evidence is suggestive that group dynamics are an important factor in driving the gender difference. Other interpretations receive less support in the data. Our results may provide an alternative explanation for the underrepresentation of women in leadership positions.
We propose a new inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimator for moment condition models with missing data. Our estimator is easy to implement and compares favourably with existing IPW estimators, including augmented IPW estimators, in terms of efficiency, robustness, and higher-order bias. We illustrate our method with a study of the relationship between early Black–White differences in cognitive achievement and subsequent differences in adult earnings. In our data set, the early childhood achievement measure, the main regressor of interest, is missing for many units.